Kessler/Froch and Arreola/Adamek prediction

I'm picking up recording my impressions as I watch round five of the all european Kessler/Froch matchup, I admit I would have called Kessler without reservation against Froch. I'd call the fight very even so far, but Kessler is by no means dominant. Kessler looks faster and he is taking advantage, but when he lets up, Froch steps in. Ever since Kessler got flat out smoked by Andre Ward, many are wondering if he's shot. Hard to say...but he might be, because although Froch is confident and admirably loose and cocky in the ring, his handspeed is poor. If Kessler can't beat him, he would indeed seem to be shot.

Through six, I'd give Kessler three rounds and Froch three. The Showtime crew gave a telling statistic coming in to the fight. All of the super middleweight tournament fights have been won by the home town fighter. In Froch's case, he stole the decision from Andre Dirrell, but either it's a testament to the unfairness of boxing scoring or the fighters by and large fight better before their home town crowds. It's probably both.

Kessler takes round seven and goes up a round, even as Al Bernstein says halfway through the round that he had Froch up four rounds to two. In Denmark? No way...at least not on the official judge's scorecards. Kessler stalking in round eight and rocks Froch and Froch is badly hurt. His legs are gone and he survives, but clearly a dominant round for Kessler. Kessler up five rounds to three and gaining momentum.

Showtime color man Antonio Tarver speculates that Froch's nose is badly broken. Kessler laying off and not finishing. As the round ends, both guys are throwing haymakers and missing like drunken sailors. Ugly action as neither looks able to really avoid the other's punches, yet neither is good enough to hit the other. I'd give Froch the ninth, making it 5-4 for Kessler, but the judges won't.

The tenth round is incredibly close as both can't dodge the others punches. It would be a fantastic fight if it were contested at a slightly higher skill level. It's entertaining, but each is so easy for the other to hit that the only reason they miss, and they miss a lot, is based on poor mechanics, bad balance and poor setup. I give it to Froch for cleaner punches, making it 5-5.

Round eleven again was very close, haymakers flying, missing and landing and really making it tough to call. I give it to Kessler, making it 6 rounds to 5 rounds favoring Kessler.

Okay...so that WAS a fun final round. Kessler went nuclear, just throwing constant bombs and landing and backing up a throwing Froch until thirty seconds left when it looked like Kessler ran out of gas and Froch had something left, but not enough to really turn the tide. I give the final round to Kessler, making it 7 to 5 on my card.

Getting the decision: 117-111; 115-113; 116-112 all in favor of Mikkel Kessler. Makes sense and it is as I expected. I've always called Carl Froch a glorified club fighter, but I'll admit he looked more comfortable in the ring than Kessler and has heart and skills, but to be more candid yet...I think he probably only looked good as compared to Kessler.

Now to Arreola/Adamek. Personally, I think Adamek is biting off WAY more than he can chew in Arreola. Arreola, but for a couple of giant Ukranian brothers, would be heavyweight champion of the world. Now, I know that's like saying but for the Allies, the thousand year reich was a really strong play...but, to take the analogy as step too far, Arreola IS like the reich...but for the Allies, they had a lot of game.

Arreola is heavy handed, willing and skilled. He's quick handed for a heavyweight and the reason he got demolished by Klitschko the younger (I recall it was the younger, wasn't it?) was because Dr. Steelhammer has perfected his jab and hammering following cross, his reach advantage is too great and the good doctor has enough lateral movement and safety first savvy to be practically unbeatable by shorter-armed heavyweights like Arreola.

So how does Adamek stack up? I'd say he's likely to give up 30 pounds on fight night, especially to the rolly polly Arreola. When Arreola, an experienced amateur, starts to lean on him, Adamek is going to feel the difference between cruiserweight and heavyweight. Unless Adamek's speed advantage is just outrageous, he has no chance. A massive speed advantage simply isn't likely, nor is the skill differential likely to be great.

We must recall that Arreola is a very tough guy who leads with his face...and looks like it. He's not worried about absorbing leather...he's used to it. Unless the shellacking by Klitschko broke his spirit, unlikely in my estimation, Arreola is looking to rebound. This a stupid first foray into the deep water of the heavyweight division for Adamek, in my view. I call Arreola by KO in round seven, though it could go deeper with a lopsided result for Cristobal.