RealFightFan.com

Roy Jones is an alarmingly bad TV analyst

2011-02-19T22:36:00.002-05:00

Watching Mike Jones v. Sotto Karass, Roy Jones really says almost nothing worth hearing, adds nothing to the B.A.D. broadcast and doesn't articulate his thoughts intelligibly. Using double negatives, making nonsensical statements, espousing the obvious...he's a knucklehead voice forgiven by his co-analysts because he was once an (overrated) attraction himself. They showed Marco Antonio Barrera announcing for Mexican TV. Why oh why can't we have him?

Dawson exposed...FINALLY!

2010-08-15T11:09:00.002-04:00

Well, last night Chad Dawson lost at least the second fight in his career, but it marked the first record loss and it's about time. Dawson, whom I saw lose to Glen Johnson, sleepwalked through an aggressive beating at the hands of the marginally skilled, but buff Jean Pascal. Pascal, whose style is interesting as mimicry of Roy Jones, Jr. exposes himself over and over, but Dawson was and is too tentative to take advantage.

I'm not necessarily hating on Dawson, who waded deep into enemy territory in Montreal to prove his worthiness of Ring's best light heavy title, but he never delivered.

Pacquiao v. Margarcheato???

2010-07-29T22:48:00.002-04:00

Okay, Manny...I get it. Mayweather is punking out (notwithstanding the semi-confirmed rumor that there may have been some negotiation between Arum and Al Hamon or Ross Greenberg or the man in the moon). So, you've got to look for another fight, but letting Bob Arum put you in with Margarito is WAY beneath you.

Why would you want to legitimize this guy? Doesn't it matter to you that he used plaster in his handwraps? Did you watch what he did to Cotto with those wraps? Sure, he stood up to a major beating for 8 rounds at Cotto's hands, but only because he knew that he had a secret weapon that he had to wait to employ. His fists were going to turn into bricks that he could then use to pummel Cotto into submission. I bet Cotto was thinking, "oh God...this guy is hitting harder than ever after 8 rounds of punishment!" Well, he was. Because, unlike the once-deserving Roberto Duran, Margarcheato's hands had turned to stone.

You're better than this, Manny.

As to the fight, it's a walkover. Margarcheato, without his "edge", has looked pedestrian when in deep. Mosley pummeled him and Pac-man has twice Shane's effective speed and hits at least as hard. Margarcheato is a tough-chinned plodder who needed the advantage he cheated to get.

Without that advantage, he's Libredo Andrade. Tough enough to take the shots and be ranked, but nowhere near good enough to beat the elites. He's in there hoping for a mistake. Pacquiao doesn't make those mistakes and has a great chin himself. Pacquiao makes a mockery of it, pounds on Margarcheato from all angles and disposes of him ugly in round nine.

I won't buy it. No one should.

Floyd Mayweather the Coward

2010-07-20T22:01:00.002-04:00

It's been too long since I typed in this space with interest. Boxing is on hiatus for me. My love wanes not a bit, but alas my interest doth. Until I read again about Floyd "Honey" Mayweather. As posted in the space before, Floyd Mayweather is a coward. I've laid out the reasons we know this to be true before...but in the way that we're always disappointed to see rain clouds roll in on a sunny day, even when we can watch the radar...I'm disappointed to be right. I will excerpt a mainstream article here, as written by Tim Reynolds:

MIAMI — Floyd Mayweather Jr. allowed a deadline for striking a deal on a superfight with Manny Pacquiao to pass without saying anything.
A day later, Mayweather indicated that his stance wouldn't be changing anytime soon.
"I'm not interested in rushing to do anything," Mayweather told The Associated Press.
Appearing in Miami on Sunday as a coach at a charity basketball game hosted by Dwyane Wade and Alonzo Mourning, Mayweather happily fielded questions about the NBA. But when talk turned to boxing – and Pacquiao in particular – the fighter known as Money simply wouldn't respond.
Mayweather's camp did not respond to a deadline early Saturday put in place by Pacquiao promoter Top Rank for exclusive negotiations, which has put what could be the richest fight in boxing history in doubt. Mayweather and Pacquiao are clearly the two biggest stars in the sport but have not signed a deal despite months of negotiations.
"I'm not really thinking about boxing right now," Mayweather said. "I'm just relaxing. I fought about 60 days ago, so I'm just enjoying myself, enjoying life, enjoying my family and enjoying my vacation."
Mayweather has appeared at the event Mourning founded known as the Summer Groove in past years, plus has grabbed courtside seats at Heat games during previous trips to Miami. But there was a certain irony to his appearance Sunday: Mayweather was a coach on the bench that the Heat occupy, sitting in the seat that Miami coach Erik Spoelstra uses during games.
Spoelstra is of Filipino descent, and is a huge Pacquiao fan.
"I'm supporting all basketball players because I'm a fan of basketball," Mayweather said.
Pacquiao already has agreed to an equitable split of the earnings from the megafight, along with extensive drug testing. The two sides nearly came to terms earlier this year, but the fight didn't happen then because Pacquiao was reticent about blood testing close to a fight.
Pacquiao ended up routing Joshua Clottey before about 50,000 fans at Cowboys Stadium in March, while Mayweather easily defeated Shane Mosley in May.
Although he hasn't spoken directly to Mayweather, Top Rank promoter Bob Arum said he believes the former pound-for-pound champion might be reluctant to fight this year because of the legal woes of Roger Mayweather, his uncle and longtime trainer.
Roger Mayweather will go on trial in Las Vegas next month on assault charges stemming from an altercation with a female boxer last year.
If the fight with Mayweather doesn't happen, Pacquiao could fight recently crowned junior middleweight champion Miguel Cotto, whom he's already defeated, or former welterweight champion Antonio Margarito. Arum said that Pacquiao plans to fight Nov. 13 regardless of the opponent.
As for Mayweather, well, only he seems to know.
"Like I said, I'm just supporting my family and relaxing," Mayweather said. "That's what I'm doing right now."

Floyd Mayweather is ducking Pacquiao like a coward, plain and simple. As I wrote in predicting this shame, Mayweather has become the house...and the house doesn't make losing bets. In playing it safe, he may preserve his cache among the uninitiated, but for realfightfans, he cannot claim a place in the pantheon beside the Sugar Rays, Hitmen, Marvelous Marvins or Jack Johnsons until he truly steps up. But he won't. There's little danger of that...because he's not in the danger business anymore.

Williams v. Cintron: A Tough Call That Fizzled...

2010-05-09T21:42:00.004-04:00

As I prepare to watch this fight, I cannot decide who to call it for. Williams is relentless, tough and long, while Cintron hits like a ton of bricks and can box. Until Carlos Quintana fought a perfect counterpunchers fight against Williams, I didn't think he could be beat...and when they rematched Quintana's magic was gone and Williams knocked him out quickly. Meanwhile, only Margarito consistently has had Cintron's number, taking him into deep water and knocking him out twice (as I recall, though Cintron may have survived to a decision loss the second time), but to my thinking those losses to Margarcheato are called forever into question.

That said, it can't be overlooked that Williams outworked the workrate Margarito when he fought him, pre-scandal, decisioning the one fighter who twice defeated Cintron. I think that gives Williams the edge, both mentally and physically. I call it for Williams by attrition in the 11th of 12 rounds.

Round One - Williams is clearly taller with a reach advantage. Williams lands cleanly and the HBO crew is seeing Cintron successfully countering though I don't see it as much. And with a minute and a half, Cintron lands cleanly. Cintron IS waiting to throw that right hand. Williams is not going workrate, which is his calling card. Larry Merchant is attributing that to Cintron's taking it away, but whatever the cause, it's clear. It's a close round that I call for Williams, though it easily could go the other way. Williams up 10-9.

Round Two - Cintron is in pure coutnerpunching mode and he's not even throwing except in response. The lower workrate, according to the HBO crew, is attributable to Williams' respect for Cintron's power. Cintron is trying to time Williams with a big game-changing punch. With a minute left, he's not finding it and this leaves it as a miss, miss and counter miss type of fight and Williams has the round on aggressiveness only with 20 seconds to go. Nothing changes and Cintron did nothing but miss counterpunches to Williams' missed punches. Unimpressive, but close and again to Williams for me, making it 20-18 for Williams.

Round Three - HBO unofficial scorer Harold Lederman has the rounds split 1-1, with the last one for Williams which is fair. Williams begins stepping it up and Cintron's corner told HIM to pick up the aggression. Cintron is again purely countering and waiting for one big punch. Williams again not fighting workrate, but Cintron is doing nothing effective and neither is taking risks. Feinting, missing and moving. Williams lands the first and only real punch with ten seconds left and takes the round, going up 30-27 on my card.

Round Four - Now Williams takes a risk and both fighters connect and it gets interesting...and then the fighters tangle and both go down, but Williams is in the ring and Cintron seems to almost vault himself out of the ring through the ropes!? Okay the replay shows Cintron didn't deliberately throw himself out, but he also seemed not to try to catch himself. He appears immobilized outside the ring and a full minute passes and a gurney is brought in to cart him away. Cintron isn't even trying to get up or roll over. I can't help but wonder why he's not trying to get up and Larry Merchant comments that both fighters will get paid, but noone else will leave happy. It seems very odd to me that Cintron is not even trying. They've put a neck brace on Cintron now, though I saw him move his legs and arms.

Now they're going to the judge's scorecards because it's gone three rounds??? ...and they are counting the fourth, which lasted all of thirty or so fighting seconds. Unreal. I'm thinking that this favors Williams, interestingly enough. Williams ducked a Cintron punch and bulled into Cintron, then fell away and Cintron actually wasn't pushed out of the ring as a result of that as much as Cintron seems to have either lost his balance or attempted to regain it by throwing himself out of the ring between the second and top ropes and in any case, vaulted out onto a scorer's table, over a monitor and prone face-down onto the floor. He's not moved and he's strapped into an elaborate head-immobilizing gurney and carted away.

39-37, 40-36, 36-40 split decision for Paul Williams and one of the three judges scored ALL FOUR ROUNDS for Cintron??? That too is unreal. That judge wasn't watching anyone but Cintron. I guess I would have called the last round for Williams as much because through the first 30 seconds or so of the fourth, it was Williams' aggression that caused it to turn into a fight in what there was of the round. Another replay view seems to show Cintron almost jumping through the ropes. Gotta love boxing...here's a result I've never seen, caused by something I've never seen before. And we see Cintron waving his arms around as they load him, head immobilized, into the ambulance. He wanted to continue fighting, but was told by the doctors that he could not? And we accept this from his manager? or was it his promoter? Fishy. Well...that's boxing...

Pac v. Money: A Reality? No Way

2010-05-04T22:49:00.004-04:00

So now I hear that after Manny Pacquiao is elected to congress in the Phillipines, he is going to accede to Floyd Mayweather's demand that he give blood up to 14 days prior to fight night, again immediately after the fight and remove the only stumbling block to the biggest fight of this generation. Well, hallelujah!

In this space, I have been a supporter of Pacman's unwillingness to bow to the unilateral demands of little Floyd but after watching Floyd beat the strong shadow of Shane Mosley last Saturday night, I more than ever want to see Floyd pass boxing's ultimate test: a prime great fighter who noone can make excuses for him about. He deserves that kind of test and indeed, it's the very test he has so long carefully avoided.

Will it happen? No way. Floyd Mayweather, Jr. will find a new way out. He will change his demands on blood testing before the fight to ten days, then to five, then to three. He will demand daily testing! Anything to avoid getting in the ring with a game-changing type of fighter. Floyd Mayweather long ago stopped taking risks in his career. He's proven that he no longer has to. He can pick and choose his opponents. He didn't need Shane five or even three years ago...but he shrewdly waited until Shane was just enough diminished, then invited him in instead of a real threat, only to outbox him while Shane still looked good enough to apease the critics. He has proved masterful at crafting his safety first career...but he may be about to be exposed, if not exactly undone.

If Manny Pacquiao figures Mayweather out, it could genuinely be entertaining. Watch Manny keep agreeing to more ridiculous conditions, then watch the bar move again. Or perhaps Floyd will schedule the fight, then injure himself in training....as many times as necessary. That's always a good one. Maybe Floyd will take the fight, then get himself arrested, like uncle Roger, like daddy Sr., like son?

I know only this: I believe there is no amount of money that Money will take to hand over his zero. At some point, he became the house and the house doesn't run games where the odds fail to favor the house. Ever.

Mayweather v. Mosley: A Creampuff v. A Classic

2010-05-02T23:30:00.004-04:00

Well, either Floyd, Jr. waited long enough for Shane to age just enough or there really is nobody his peer at 147lb.. I think it's a little of both, but it's hard to say that Floyd fought a shot Shane. I don't think he did. I think he waited until he was ready for Shane, which meant that he had to wait until he was 33....which meant Shane had to be 38. If they'd fought four or five years ago, Shane would have been a touch quicker and a tad fresher, Floyd a touch less sure and a tad smaller. Once again, the shrewd matchmaking talent of the Mayweather camp pays off.

When asked before the fight who would win, I called Shane a live underdog on whom I'd wager to take advantage of 4-1 odds. When asked, if bets were straight up, who I'd take...I went with Mayweather. I expected Mosley to work hard to back Floyd up and press the action, but that the result would be a safety first victory for Floyd, backing up and counterpunching. That isn't how it went.

Instead the first two rounds went to Mosley (on my card) with the two fighters posing and quivering at each other. When they engaged, it was clear that the speed advantage wasn't as dramatically favoring Mayweather as some, myself included, had feared. That told me that it would be up to boxing skill. And as they engaged in the second round, testing one another, it was Mayweather who came up wanting and Mosley rocked him hard, wobbling Floyd, making him hold on and buy time. But then Mayweather found another gear.

It's said of champions that they do have another gear...that when pressed, they find a way to get to a new level. I think it's all the more true of undefeated champions. It was true of Joe Calzaghe against a then-fresh and hungry Mikkel Kessler and again against Bernard Hopkins. And it was true of Floyd Mayweather.

When Floyd realized it was a boxing match and that he shouldn't stand in with Shane, he began to box and he began to put distance between himself and Mosley, both figuratively and literally. To his credit, he didn't just backpedal...he mixed backpedalling with aggression and kept Mosley guessing. When Mosley pressed, he did well but he never seemed to be able to find a rhythm of his own. He was always dancing to Mayweather's tune...in and out, back and forth. Mosley's best moments after the second round, keeping in mind he lost all of the last ten rounds on my card, came when he moved forward and pressed. But he seldom pressed Mayweather out of his comfort zone, letting Floyd through a couple of punches and back away or backing off himself to allow a breather.

Mosley didn't fight with the aggression of an undefeated fighter...because he isn't one. He didn't find a next gear, because he started at his highest gear. There was no higher level for Shane. He's a pro and he came ready to fight and he gave Floyd a fight. This was not a walkover. I had the fifth, sixth, ninth, tenth and twelfth rounds as close rounds, but even on my card, Floyd always did enough to carry the round. Indeed, in a later round Floyd once looked over smiling in a clinch at the HBO crew...but he only did it once, because he couldn't get away with it more. He may have been winning convincingly, but he wasn't dominating. He was just winning. And that's enough for Floyd. He's not going for the KO. He's just trying to win.

I thought referee Kenny Bayless was way too involved, breaking the fighters too early throughout the fight, seeming to want to be a part of the show instead of facilitating it. But then again, any referee who intones, "what I say you must obey" as his last words seems to be part carny anyway. He's betraying his activism. Happily, though he didn't let it get as rough as I think it should have been allowed to be, he also didn't ruin it for anybody. Let's face it...these two guys have been in deep too long too often.

I had it 118-110, matching one judge with the other two official judges scoring it 119-109, which probably means that they both gave the close first round to Mayweather. Ultimately, I think Mosley didn't adapt as much as I thought he would. He wasn't busy enough and he looked winded in the later rounds in the corner in a way I'd never seen him. Though he didn't really show much fatigue when the bell rang each round, he looked like he was being run ragged once he'd sat down. Mayweather meanwhile didn't look tired at any point. Mosley's trainer Nazeem Richardson even made note of it once, saying that Mayweather's real talent lies in his conditioning.

If that's true, then maybe age and mileage played a bigger part than we know because any realfightfan knows that while Sugar Shane Mosley is still in great condition, mixing metaphors, he's all but a classic and he's been rode hard and put up wet a lot. He always comes out of the stable looking the like the horse we remember, but we know how many hard races he's had and those contests take a toll on mortal men.

On Mayweather's side, he's run some hard races too...but not nearly as many or as frequently or for as long as Mosley. I think Mayweather deserves credit for beating Sugar Shane, but he didn't beat the same Sugar Shane who beat Oscar twice. He beat 95% of that Shane. And in a sport where little things make a difference, 5% is the difference between winning and losing. And Floyd the safety first master matchmaker knows it. Which is why he won't fight Manny Pacquiao. Not now and not ever.

But I hope he does.

Arreola v. Adamek and Angulo/Julio

2010-04-25T10:15:00.003-04:00

After watching Kessler/Froch last night, watching the HBO Boxing After Dark 4/24/10 undercard for the heavyweight fight is like night and day, skill-wise. I was tempted to skip over this TiVo'd undercard fight to get to the heavyweight fight I'm most interested in, but stopping to watch the Alfredo Angulo v. Joel Julio fight was a big mistake, if that was my goal. The matchup is not terribly unlike the Kessler/Froch matchup: an outside fighter with pop fighting more conventionally (Kessler/Julio) against a pursuing pressure fighter with slower hands (Froch/Angulo). That's where the similarity ends, however.

The Angulo/Julio fight is being contested at a much higher skill level. Julio, circling the wrong way into Angulo's potential right hand, is pinpointing many of his jabs and crosses and when he misses, it's because of Angulo's bobbing head or deflecting punches. Angulo meanwhile, is the ever-persistent pursuer, waiting for Julio to tire. Julio circles endlessly jabbing, crossing and moving. Julio is clearly winning and has won every round up to this moment, halfway through the fifth, but I wonder no matter how much more fit Julio looks than I've seen him in past fights, if he can keep it up. Angulo seems to be conserving energy and trying to wear out the mercurial Julio. There's no question that Julio is in better shape than in times past, but moving as much as he is is tough for another seven rounds in the face of the constant and granite-chinned pressure of Angulo.

Coming in, I'd have called this for Angulo. Not because he's the more skilled boxer. He's not. He is more determined and less likely to fade. Julio indeed is supremely skilled and, especially where he trains properly, he is an elite level fighter...but Angulo is a very determined pressure fighter with heavy hands who seems like he can't be hurt and counterpunches well. With a minute left in the sixth, the round is far more even. I still lean it to Julio and could see several of these rounds going Angulo's way, but so far halfway through, I've got every round for Julio.

Harold Lederman has it three to three and though I seldom give too much credence to his unofficial card, I wonder if I'm paying too much attention to typing and not enough to following the fight. I'll remedy that now.

I see Angulo slowing a bit, not walking in with abandon as he pursues. This tells me that Julio's power has his attention. The seventh clearly goes to Julio on my card, making it a shutout. If this fight goes on this way, Julio can't lose...unless he fades...which I suspect he will. Against Angulo, fading just a bit means destruction. Julio is used to being able to take a little bit of time here and there off, especially after he's spent 20 plus minutes softening up his opponent. The problem is that there's no softening up Alfredo Angulo. After eight, Julio still edges Angulo on my card, continuing his shutout.

Max Kellerman intones that Julio looks like he's running now more than earlier in the fight and there's some legitimacy to that, however I'm not seeing Angulo being particularly effective. Julio is making Angulo miss and touching Angulo as he circles. Julio is cut over the left eye by a punch, but although Angulo mercilessly advances, the better work is still done by Julio. He's shutting Angulo out. Can he keep it up? He's looking more tired in the corner. Lederman has the last five rounds for Angulo??? what fight is he watching? I see Julio getting away nearly every time. He opines that Julio is hitting Angulo "here and there, but nothing serious", but that is a function of Angulo's granite chin, not the solidity of Julio's punching.

That said, I will agree (and uninfluenced by Mr. Lederman), that finally the tenth round goes to Angulo as Angulo's pressure reaches and surpasses the tipping point. On my card, that makes it 9 to 1 roundwise.

Julio has tried to grab and hold a few times throughout the fight, but Angulo wants none of it. And Julio is dropped! ...and it's waved off! I guess the referee felt Julio couldn't continue. Wow...a sudden end to the fight and in a way that makes sense. I had it in a landslide for Julio, but I never doubted the possibility that Angulo would catch up in the late rounds. Angulo just puts in his work, keeps up his pressure, takes to give and eventually gets his man. Great fight.

Now to Arreola v. Adamek!

As I expected, Adamek is giving away 33 pounds at the weigh-in. The first round looks evenly contested. No great speed advantage to either fighter. Hard to call as they both get in some shots. The size advantage, while marked, doesn't look too great...though I think it will tell as we proceed. 10-9 for Adamek.

The HBO team points out Adamek's long pro and amateur resume, which unusually outstrips Arreola's own. To his credit, Adamek is indeed showing skill and poise and Arreola is having trouble hitting Adamek while Adamek counters. Adamek's not getting out entirely untouched, but he's getting the better of it. Second round goes to Adamek too, making it 20-18 for Adamek. Keep in mind that if Adamek gets in trouble, it will happen like a lightning strike and Arreola is a hungry and angry finisher.

Another round in the books for Adamek making it 30-27 and the question becomes can he do enough damage to Arreola to take his heart away. Kellerman calls Adamek a "top twenty pound for pound guy", which I don't necessarily agree with...but he does look technically sound and is plying his speed advantage.

Now Adamek "looks a little wobbly" according to Bob Papa and I've seen that once or twice when Arreola really lands hard. In the second half of the round, Adamek turns the tide back, landing repeatedly cleanly. The HBO team talks about how Adamek looks wobbly as the round ends, but he does enough on my card to take it, going up 40-36.

Max Kellerman seems to score more by general impression than by punches landed as he gives round 4 to Arreola. I disagree, though I like Chris a lot as a heavyweight fighter. Adamek is making him pay for his typical aggression. Arreola though, is accustomed to taking to give. Can Adamek do enough damage? Adamek in trouble! His footwork is poor, according to the commentators and that looks accurate. Arreola not ready to finish him...but maybe he's just waiting. Arreola takes his first round and takes it clearly, making it 49-46 still favoring Arreola.

The replay shows that it's a JAB that put Adamek off his game. And that's the punching power advantage of a natural heavy like Arreola versus a blown up technician with pop like Adamek. He won't survive in the rarified air of the heavyweight division, even if he survives tonight. Adamek starts to obviously run as Adamek is no longer offensive and only showing offense to try to keep Arreola off and to get away. Another clear round for Arreola, making it 58-56 for Adamek.

Lederman has it the the exact opposite way, which is heartening because I seldom agree with Lederman. I think Adamek takes the momentum back in the seventh, landing and moving and looking rejuvenated, while Arreola is reduced to his pursuit of the fight's beginning. That one goes to Adamek, making it 68-65 favoring Adamek.

We're into round eight and I didn't think it would go this far, so the question becomes: will Arreola break down Adamek or will Adamek be able to stay away? Arreola is not able to cut off the ring effectively. Adamek is clearly convinced that he will not be able to KO Arreola, so he's on his horse and concentrating on staying away from danger. Probably smart because he's making Arreola have to chase him, which Arreola doesn't seem able to effectively do. That one also goes to Adamek, widening the margin to 78-74 in his favor.

In the ninth, Arreola again reduced to the chase while Adamek punches and dances away. Adamek is gaining confidence back and starting to mix exchanges with backing away. If he keeps the stay-away and punch and run strategy, he'll win. Arreola lands big! Adamek is hurt with two minutes left. Arreola not finishing...which will cost him this fight, if Adamek recovers. THIS may be a conditioning issue for Arreola. Arreola can't close the show despite Adamek's being wobbled because he's gassed. He's not really showing it, except for failing to press his advantage...but it's there. Arreola is not throwing his right hand much in the second half. He saves the round for himself at the end, though Adamek clearly recovered, making it 87-84 favoring Adamek.

In the tenth, Arreola presses his advantage and takes a close round where Adamek is looking tired: 96-94

In the eleventh, Arreola comes out smoking. Adamek not moving as much, as if his feet are slowed. Adamek willing to trade more...which is a bad strategy for him. Arreola has more opportunities and keeps trying to press his advantage. Arreola is hurt in his right bicep, according to his corner...he throws it and winces obviously. Arreola takes the round, though Adamek tries to play to the crowd at the end. My score moves to 105-104 in Adamek's favor.

Final round begins and I'm going to watch. Adamek standing in and exchanging...and getting the better of it in the first minute. Arreola blinking away blood and eating punches coming in. They lean on each other halfway. Adamek clearly has plenty left and he's moving more and trying to stay away, then hugging. Adamek fighting smart, if not entertainingly. Arreola ends the fight having almost not landed a single punch cleanly, and holds his hand up high...to me almost admitting that he knows he didn't do enough. The last round goes to Adamek, making my final tally 115-113 for Adamek.

Much credit to Adamek for fighting smart enough of the time. It almost went as I predicted, but Adamek is too skilled and had enough of a quickness advantage to take it, at least on my card: . It's in Arreola's backyard, so we'll see...

The official scorecards come down: 114-114 even; 115-113; 117-111 for Adamek in a majority decision. Great fight. Fair result.

Kessler/Froch and Arreola/Adamek prediction

2010-04-24T21:50:00.004-04:00

I'm picking up recording my impressions as I watch round five of the all european Kessler/Froch matchup, I admit I would have called Kessler without reservation against Froch. I'd call the fight very even so far, but Kessler is by no means dominant. Kessler looks faster and he is taking advantage, but when he lets up, Froch steps in. Ever since Kessler got flat out smoked by Andre Ward, many are wondering if he's shot. Hard to say...but he might be, because although Froch is confident and admirably loose and cocky in the ring, his handspeed is poor. If Kessler can't beat him, he would indeed seem to be shot.

Through six, I'd give Kessler three rounds and Froch three. The Showtime crew gave a telling statistic coming in to the fight. All of the super middleweight tournament fights have been won by the home town fighter. In Froch's case, he stole the decision from Andre Dirrell, but either it's a testament to the unfairness of boxing scoring or the fighters by and large fight better before their home town crowds. It's probably both.

Kessler takes round seven and goes up a round, even as Al Bernstein says halfway through the round that he had Froch up four rounds to two. In Denmark? No way...at least not on the official judge's scorecards. Kessler stalking in round eight and rocks Froch and Froch is badly hurt. His legs are gone and he survives, but clearly a dominant round for Kessler. Kessler up five rounds to three and gaining momentum.

Showtime color man Antonio Tarver speculates that Froch's nose is badly broken. Kessler laying off and not finishing. As the round ends, both guys are throwing haymakers and missing like drunken sailors. Ugly action as neither looks able to really avoid the other's punches, yet neither is good enough to hit the other. I'd give Froch the ninth, making it 5-4 for Kessler, but the judges won't.

The tenth round is incredibly close as both can't dodge the others punches. It would be a fantastic fight if it were contested at a slightly higher skill level. It's entertaining, but each is so easy for the other to hit that the only reason they miss, and they miss a lot, is based on poor mechanics, bad balance and poor setup. I give it to Froch for cleaner punches, making it 5-5.

Round eleven again was very close, haymakers flying, missing and landing and really making it tough to call. I give it to Kessler, making it 6 rounds to 5 rounds favoring Kessler.

Okay...so that WAS a fun final round. Kessler went nuclear, just throwing constant bombs and landing and backing up a throwing Froch until thirty seconds left when it looked like Kessler ran out of gas and Froch had something left, but not enough to really turn the tide. I give the final round to Kessler, making it 7 to 5 on my card.

Getting the decision: 117-111; 115-113; 116-112 all in favor of Mikkel Kessler. Makes sense and it is as I expected. I've always called Carl Froch a glorified club fighter, but I'll admit he looked more comfortable in the ring than Kessler and has heart and skills, but to be more candid yet...I think he probably only looked good as compared to Kessler.

Now to Arreola/Adamek. Personally, I think Adamek is biting off WAY more than he can chew in Arreola. Arreola, but for a couple of giant Ukranian brothers, would be heavyweight champion of the world. Now, I know that's like saying but for the Allies, the thousand year reich was a really strong play...but, to take the analogy as step too far, Arreola IS like the reich...but for the Allies, they had a lot of game.

Arreola is heavy handed, willing and skilled. He's quick handed for a heavyweight and the reason he got demolished by Klitschko the younger (I recall it was the younger, wasn't it?) was because Dr. Steelhammer has perfected his jab and hammering following cross, his reach advantage is too great and the good doctor has enough lateral movement and safety first savvy to be practically unbeatable by shorter-armed heavyweights like Arreola.

So how does Adamek stack up? I'd say he's likely to give up 30 pounds on fight night, especially to the rolly polly Arreola. When Arreola, an experienced amateur, starts to lean on him, Adamek is going to feel the difference between cruiserweight and heavyweight. Unless Adamek's speed advantage is just outrageous, he has no chance. A massive speed advantage simply isn't likely, nor is the skill differential likely to be great.

We must recall that Arreola is a very tough guy who leads with his face...and looks like it. He's not worried about absorbing leather...he's used to it. Unless the shellacking by Klitschko broke his spirit, unlikely in my estimation, Arreola is looking to rebound. This a stupid first foray into the deep water of the heavyweight division for Adamek, in my view. I call Arreola by KO in round seven, though it could go deeper with a lopsided result for Cristobal.

Kelly Pavlik: Knucklehead or Hero?

2010-04-19T22:17:00.006-04:00

Youngstown's pride is a likeable, tough and rough and ready guy, but I have to wonder what he's thinking? Does he not watch boxing? Is he surrounded by idiots? Is he a fool? Harsh questions to be sure, but warranted now that he seems to have busied himself squandering his marketability so feverishly.

How else can his recent matchmaking decisions be explained. He had climbed the mountain. He'd defeated the undisputed middleweight champion, then beaten him again. He was king of the hill and could look down from his throne and pick the fights he wanted, even alphabet belts be damned. So what does he do? He immediately challenges the former middleweight champion of the world in a non-title bout. Does he force Hopkins to lose down to 160lb? No. He decides to move up to Hopkins' new weight at 168lb.. Does he have anything to gain? No. If he wins, then he beat an old man, finally past his prime at 43. He won't even get a belt...just pride. Did he have everything to lose? Yes. If he loses, he not only takes his first loss, but does so to an old man who ruled his division for 10 years before stepping up. If he loses, he'll be regarded as a lesser champ than the true titleholder he preceded...and he'll feel that way too. He risks undermining both his marketability and his own confidence.

And so pride went before the fall, as the cagey Hopkins went deliberately against his own style, stepping out aggressively and pummeling Pavlik for 12 rounds, easily defeating him, handing him his first loss, destroying his luster of invincibility and sure enough...putting doubt where none had been before. Why would a fighter make such a stupid move? Well...Kelly Pavlik once said he would fight Godzilla if his promoter put him in the ring with him. So, it's the handlers, then. And shame on them because apparently they have don't understand what it means to have a meal ticket.

Even after the monumentally stupid decision to fight Bernard Hopkins, Pavlik's handlers apparently searched and searched for a fighter who could beat their guy. Bowing to the alphabet gods, they matched their guy with Sergio Martinez. Now here's a guy who could actually probably mirror Hopkins' fight plan, for which Pavlik clearly had no answer. He's got that kind of athletic skill. But even if he chose not to, there were other ways he could beat Pavlik: speed of hand and speed of foot. And so he did.

Though Pavlik took as many as four of the middle rounds, along with a gift knockdown call, he was badly outmatched. It's a credit to Pavlik's determination that he was willing to take the shots in rounds five through nine necessary to compete. He stepped inside Martinez' punches, timed him and dished out punishment, but he had already been softened up and when he began to bleed around both eyes, it was more than even he could overcome. Martinez' conditioning was such that he could keep moving all night. His speed advantage was such that he could shake his shoulders, bolo his punches and taunt the middleweight champion of the world at will. And so he did.

And for what? Pavlik didn't have to take this tough a fight. He could have taken a half dozen fights before even considering fighting anyone this tough. With any of those fights, he would have been comparably paid and his contract with HBO was clearly intact regardless of the level of opponent. He not only didn't need Sergio Martinez...he should have stayed far away from a fighter as gifted, but unrecognized as Martinez. Then why take it? If not for the money or the recognition, then why? Could it be that Kelly Pavlik really cares about whether he is the best fighter? Whether he deserves to be the middleweight king? Could he really actually be so willing to answer that question that it matters less to him whether he wins or loses, than that he test himself?

If the answer is yes, then Kelly Pavlik is both.

Berto v. Quintana; round-by-round

2010-04-10T23:30:00.003-04:00

Well I'm finishing watching the lead-in HBO fight between featherweights Caballero and Sompun Chingbagh. To noone's surprise Sompun Chingbagh absorbed punishment all night long and Caballero took a unanimous landslide decision.

The big fight of the night is Andre Berto v. Carlos Quintana. Will this be the Quintana that beat Paul Williams by fighting perfectly or the version that got KO'd by Williams in the rematch? Will the undefeated Berto be the one who struggled with the flat footed Juan Urango? Will Berto still be affected by the Haiti earthquake that prompted his pullout from his then-cancelled fight with Shane Mosley? Interesting questions for realfightfans. Who do I like? I'd think Berto's quickness gives him an edge, but it's easy to underestimate Quintana. A slick southpaw who can really box, he was able to decisively beat the then-undefeated and seemingly still nearly unbeatable Paul Williams. Quintana also handed Joel Julio his first loss and though Julio precitously fell off our collective radar later, he was a force to be reckoned with as he's apparently still trying to claw his way back to relevance.

Interesting to see HBO pointing out Berto's career long 314 day layoff for Berto. I think we're going to see ring rust and Berto maybe thrown off by Quintana's ability to slip, duck and counter. Berto is used to being able to admire his work and have a major talent advantage and is likely to be really tested for the first time in his career. I think he'll come up short. I call Quintana by decision, maybe even a split decision...but the WBC welterweight championship changes hands tonight.

Now let's see what the fight holds:

Round one - Berto clearly quicker and lands the first significant punch cleanly. Quintana rabbit punching. Now Lampley reminds us that Quintana was KO'd by Williams in the rematch in one round and retired by Cotto after five rounds. Berto complaining while caught up, but Quintana fighting on and taking advantage by punching inside. Now Berto is roughhousing, then complaining about being rabbit punched...when this time it didn't happen! Berto's round 10-9

Round two - Quintana starts by twitching a jab out and Quintana times Berto and hits him hard and clean. Berto then steps inside and gets rough, stepping in and waving his head around. Berto steps inside and holds and gets hit in the face and seems to want to complain that it's somehow unfair that he's getting hit. Quintana bothering Berto by flicking that jab. Quintana just out of reach of hitting Quintana. Quintana's round, evening it at 19-19.

Round three - Quintana is warned for hitting behind the head, but I don't really see it. Berto's complaints shouldn't result in a special look. Berto looking to the ref. Quintana gets warned again and I can't tell for what, considering that Berto is the one leaning in, jumping in and butting. Quintana on the defensive, but Berto getting hit. A point deduction from Quintana for hitting Berto behind the head and because Berto turned out of a clinch and turned his back and got hit in the back of the head, it looked far more obvious than it was. 10-8 for Berto, making it 29-27 for Berto.

Round four - rough fight, as the HBO crew attests. Merchant correctly points out that Berto is "turning away" coming out of clinches, making Quintana have to throw at the back of his head, as it happens again, but no point taken this time or warning given. Still, Berto is getting the better of it. Quintana is not sharp because he's not getting off first. Berto's round again as the aggressor, making it 39-36 for Berto.

Round five - Nice uppercut by Quintana and they are fighting rough, holding, pushing and leaning on each other while throwing. Another nice uppercut by Quintana followed by a clean right by Berto. I wonder how much Berto has left, but Quintana is wobbled when both land cleanly. I disagree with Jim Lampley that it was quite a "big round" for Berto, but by wobbling Quintana he took the round, even though much of it was very even or skewed to Quintana. It goes to 49-45 for Berto.

Round six - ugly round and it's Berto's fault as much or more than Quintana. Neither fighter deserves the round with 30 seconds left. Merchant says he thinks its a "pretty good round" for Quintana and I'll agree, making it 58-55, still for Berto. And there's a left bicep injury to Berto evidently.

Round seven - Quintana going under the left arm of Quintana. Lampley enthusiastically declaring Berto's shots hard and clean and Merchant disagreeing. Merchants' right, but just then Berto DOES land a hard right cleanly. A close round, but I've got to give it to Berto, making it 68-64 for Berto.

Round eight - Berto better in the first minute and now Quintana complains and I don' t see why? getting hit cleanly? They fight the first half of this round separated and it favors Berto. Good thing Lampley is not reffing because he says it's a good time to stop the fight, but that's excessive. Shockingly! the ref stops it?!? okay so Quintana took a shot straight down the middle, but for me it was not a good stoppage. I think that Quintana could continue. In replays though, it actually looked worse than I thought it was in real time. Quintana WAS totally defensive and there was nearly a full minute left. Good stoppage.

So does this make Berto a legitimate threat in the welterweight division? I'm not convinced. He's fast-handed, but his style is ugly and he's hittable as heck. Quintana has no power and Berto actually can be dropped. Against any of the three best in the division, he gets picked apart, shocked and dropped repeatedly. Berto is too inaccurate, but he IS still undefeated and didn't show any sign of tiring, though it didn't really go that deep. I was wrong about the outcome. Quintana isn't fast enough handed and the speed differential was too much for him. He seems to be on the downside of his career now, so he may turn into a gatekeeper...which I suppose is what he was today.

Predictions and super middleweight thoughts

2010-03-28T13:55:00.004-04:00

After reading the most recent edition of the Ring and seeing Froch called to win over Kessler, I had to respond. While I realize that Andre Ward dismantled Mikkel Kessler, that's no reason to dismiss Kessler such that he would be predicted to be beaten by Carl Froch. Froch is a borderline club fighter who eked out a hometown decision against the starry-eyed Dirrell who couldn't bring himself to punch, somehow thinking that the fact that his hands and head movement were SO much faster than Froch's, he didn't have to actually throw to win.

Kessler gave Joe Calzaghe a good fight and he's not so far removed from that. Before he dropped the decision to Ward, he was the odds-on favorite to win the Showtime tournament. Meanwhile, on the strength of a late round and fight-saving (on my card, at least) KO of the now-withdrawn Jermaine Taylor, Arthur Abraham was the second coming. After last night, no more...though I imagine some will point to the DQ as something different from a loss, notwithstanding that it IS a loss and that he was taking a beating for over ten rounds before he got himself DQ'd. My point is that the tide of opinion ought not vary quite so much based solely on the most recent fight.

Arthur Abraham has always been a slow-footed punch magnet with a granite chin who waits until the end of fights to try to win on one punch. Until recently, he was successful with that . Interestingly absent the DQ loss to Dirrell, whom he wore down by absorbing punches non-stop for ten rounds, the strategy might have worked again. Meanwhile, Kessler is not suddenly a punching bag merely because he lost badly to Andre Ward. Ward stepped up and Kessler didn't prepare properly. Given the disparity of the loss, the handspeed issue may be impossible for Kessler to overcome if they fight again...but against Carl Froch, Kessler's handspeed will not be a problem. He is fitter than Froch, moves better laterally, punches better in combination and surely has faster hands. Froch has a puncher's chance, but that's all. It's Kessler by a wide decision, if not by KO in the late rounds.

Meanwhile, the cream is rising to the top. Andre Ward looked unbeatable against Kessler, but he won't be able to look as fast against Dirrell (when that eventually happens) and a healthy Allan Green subbing in for Jermaine Taylor, brings an interesting dynamic. Sometimes he looks dominant and sometimes vulnerable, but always entertaining. I think he was a great late addition to the tournament.

As for Jermaine taking a hiatus, perhaps it's a good thing. I'm not quite the alarmist that others who've seen his performances of late have been, but I think a step back will benefit him mentally. I think he's bought into the knock on him that he can't finish fights...that he fades. While he's had problems with that, without doubt, I think he needs a new approach to the later rounds. On my card, he was beating Arthur Abraham before he was dropped very late and there's no question on anyone's card that Carl Froch was desparate and far behind when he similarly KO'd Jermaine late. These were dramatic looking losses to be sure, but it seems totally lost by boxing writers that Jermaine was LEADING these fights when he was KO'd. He hasn't lost the ability to compete at the elite level, if we judge him fairly by his last several fights. He brings it, then loses focus in the last round or two. I think some time off, harsh conditioning and a new mental approach to the late rounds: be ready to pour it on in the last two rounds, as if he's behind regardless of the scorecard, for example. Condition for that.

Finally, some stream of consciousness thoughts about Mayweather v. Mosley. Mosley looked fantastic against Cheatergarito, beating him to the punch so often that the hardened plaster inside Margburitto's gloves didn't get a chance to make a difference. Can Mosley be that fast again? He's a fanatical trainer all-year-round, not dissimilar to Mayweather. As he's aged, he's become natural at or near the 150 lb. level, overblown above it and starved below 144 lb. I'm assuming the fight was made at somewhere between 147lb and 150 lbs. Mosley is a special fighter and he can bring leather with strategy. He's a young 38 and I'm hopeful that he hasn't hit the wall yet, losing that fraction of speed that will cost him any chance. Mayweather still has his speed and there's no question about that. This IS a risky fight for him and just like the calculating wuss that he is, he has waited for father time to take the edge off Mosley before agreeing to fight him.

If Mayweather is right and father time has given him the speed edge over Mosley that he's been waiting for all these years, we'll see it in the ring very quickly. These two fighters have been in deep for so long that neither should have a tactical advantage that the other can't offset, so speed will dictate the win. If it's even enough that Mosley can compete, he'll win. He's got a bigger heart and a stronger will to win with less self-doubt. He wants this fight worse than any fight in his entire career. Meanwhile, this fight is almost an afterthought to Mayweather. An alternate to the big payday with Pac that he's ducked. Mayweather will train seriously, be in great shape and will try to establish his speed advantage early. If he finds himself too evenly matched on speed, he will start to foul, cry foul and look for a way out.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I'm going to say that Mayweather took this fight earlier than he should've...meaning that he should have waited until Mosley was 45 years old. He took it for the wrong reason too: he wanted to prove he's not afraid of Pacquiao by showing he'll take a big dangerous fight. I think the reason he ducked Mosley for so long is still there: Mosley is as fast or nearly as fast as he is and has more heart, a stronger will to win and better mental toughness when in deep. Mosley adapts, has backup weapons he can implement on the fly and is unafraid of losing. Mayweather is scared to death of losing. Mosley KOs Mayweather in the ninth, settling the pound-for-pound issue in Pac's favor once and for all. Then Mayweather comes crawling back to Pacquiao, seeking the match he withdrew from, on whatever terms Pacquiao wants...and Pac walks away for a year. Then Pac takes it and dispatches Mayweather in the fifth when Mayweather retires on his stool, then from boxing. You heard it all here first.

Showtime: Dirrell v. Abraham

2010-03-27T23:13:00.004-04:00

I am blogging starting in the third round of the Dirrell/Abraham super middleweight fight. It's going as I would expect: Dirrell is having his way with him. For me, the only question is whether Dirrell can stay away from Abraham's telegraphed big punches when they occasionally are thrown. And whether Dirrell learned from his loss to stay more active (and not fight in his opponent's back yard).

Once again, the Showtime crew is alarmingly pro-Abraham, with the marginal Antonio Tarver giving Abraham the 3rd despite Abraham taking the same constant tagging all round long, but landing a few punches. And down goes Abraham in the fourth! with 16 seconds left, Dirrell goes in for the kill, but he won't get it. Really nice to see, as I think Abraham was and is way over-rated. On my card, he was losing until he KO'd Jermaine Taylor in the closing seconds of that fight (notwithstanding the pro-Abraham crowd and call by Showtime).

Now the Showtime crew is minimizing the effect of the knockdown, calling it an off-balance issue. It looked rock solid to me: a straight punch right on the button. Dirrell has been taking Abraham apart because while Abraham is tough and can punch, he is slow compared to the elite level Dirrell. Dirrell only has to move his hands and stay alert and he cannot lose.

My card has every round so far for Dirrell with a two pointer in the 4th. The fifth goes his way, too, making it 50-44. Inexplicably, Steve Albert ridiculously intones that it is "shaping up to be a terrific fight" after Dirrell has basically been dominating Abraham wire to wire, excepting maybe three punches. Now Abraham grabs his crotch about 22 seconds in to the 6th and asks for time...the sign of a fighter who is looking for a way out. Finally, as the fight obviously is turning, Albert acknowledges that Abraham can be expected to turn dirty as he falls behind. They flash a telling stat on landed punches with 2 minutes left in the 6th: 47 punches landed for Abraham v. 153 for Dirrell. A blowout, not a terrific fight.

Abraham follows Dirrell around and takes punches all around his peekaboo guard. He's too slow relative to Dirrell to do much else. Another round for Dirrell. After six, it's 60-53.

Nice to see Dirrell moving his hands in the seventh, pounding under Abraham's elbows of that peekaboo guard. He can't let down. Abraham mounting zero offense now, halfway through. Abraham pushes/wrestles Dirrell down to the canvas and so the roughhouse tactics begin. Dirrell lights up Abraham in response. I can't help but think that if Abraham had landed the same punch, the Showtime crew would have howled! Dirrell knocks Abraham into the ropes to end the round and the ref rules it a slip? It looked like a knockdown to me and won't Showtime show that sequence again between rounds? they don't! why not??? That is simply poor television, Showtime.

As the eighth begins, a power punch stat is flashed: 166 for Dirrell v. 34 for Abraham. It's a walkover ,not a terrific fight. Dirrell is inviting Abraham in to tire him and seems to be rope-a doping Abraham! The ref breaks it up, warning Abraham for pushing and bulling. Albert says a warning by the ref "saved Dirrell"! What fight is this idiot watching? I have never before resorted to name-calling in appreciation for the pay television devotion to my love: boxing...but Albert is an incompetent. As if in answer, Dirrell dominates the remainder of the round. After 8 rounds, it's 80-71. On my card, Abraham has not won a single round and should probably have another 10-8 round.

Dirrell continues to move laterally and sting Abraham as blood pours from Abraham's right eye. Al Bernstein intones that Abraham hasn't ever been close to losing a fight, but I guess he wasn't actually at the Taylor fight. Oh wait, he WAS there. What is it with these guys' love affair with Abraham? Now with 1:21 left in the 9th and on the heels of Abraham being badly stunned by a straight right, Abraham grabs Dirrell under his arm and when I think the ref is about to take a point for it...he gives Abraham a minute-long breather to get his eye checked! It's bleeding badly and when Abraham finally catches his breath, they put time back in and the beating continues with Albert warning the viewing audience to "remember, Arthur Abraham is a very strong man" and that he could turn the fight around with one punch. Unreal.

Now they replay that a clash of heads opened the existing cut further and spend a full minute of the 10th talking about how Abraham could complain that he lost the fight because of a cut! Now Dirrell gets his feet caught up and goes down and Abraham goes wild trying to take him out afterward and the ref calls it a slip and the Showtime crew says they "can't believe it wasn't a knockdown"! So NOW they show it again THIS TIME...and lo and behold, it's the tripped up feet. I would however, give that as the first round for Abraham, making it 99-91 for Dirrell.

Dirrell did look a bit tired as Abraham desperately went nuts...and it is going as ever, and Abraham is DQ'D!!! for hitting Dirrell while he's down. Dirrell slipped and he went down near a corner and Abraham unquestionably leaned down and hit him with a big punch absolutely knocking Dirrell out. Dirrell is quivering on the canvas and absolutely out. The replay shows that Abraham unquestionably punched him while he was down and had to be bending down to do it. Dirrell was seated on the canvas when the punch was thrown.

Now, there is no question whatsoever that Abraham hit Dirrell while he was down, but the replay does seem to show Dirrell reacting to the punch, making me think that despite how far ahead he was in the fight, Dirrell kind of decided to go with the punch knowing he was already down and had been fouled and took an easy way out of what was becoming a much tougher late round fight. His reaction afterward would seem to support that too. The replay shows Dirrell raising his hand to his face after the punch, wincing...then tipping over and acting as if he'd been KO'd. Abraham says Dirrell is a "good actor", which shows he clearly thinks the punch didn't actually legitimately KO Dirrell.

Now the Showtime crew claims that Dirrell's incoherent response to the in-ring interview attempt of their notoriously obnoxious interviewer is proof that he needs medical attention and was knocked cold. I disagree. I think his corner, deliberaly creating a commotion and practically roughing him up because they know full well what he did, was egging on his performance. When he was directly asked, Dirrell knew that Abraham had been DQ'd for hitting him while he was down. Now Tarver intones that "we know how to beat Abraham"? Heck...Jermaine Taylor showed how to beat Abraham! He just did it in front of a wildly partisan crowd and Showtime crew that cheered Abraham's every twitch. Taylor lost because the fight was thirty seconds too long for him.

Now...it should be noted that Dirrell clearly won this fight. Also, Abraham clearly deserved to be DQ'd for hitting Dirrell while he was down. But another replay of the tenth round slip-ruling on Dirrell showed me that it was much more a punch than I thought at first viewing. It easily could have been called a knockdown. This, coupled with the fact that Dirrell seemed to be waning as Abraham (despite a shellacking all night long) did not, makes me think that Dirrell just took the expeditious way out. Feel a solid blow on your chin while you're down? fall over...you'll win the fight. Whether you're ahead or behind, that's true...and it's certainly easier than fighting out the last 5 minutes, possibly with cobwebs. That's boxing.

Mayweather is a coward

2010-03-27T22:48:00.002-04:00

This is the only conclusion I can draw. I saw Teddy Atlas "break" his inside tip on FNF, like every other fight fan and thought at first...well, I tend to trust Teddy. Then, as I turned it over and over in my mind, I thought...Teddy is besmirching the reputation of a pound for pound guy and he's not turning over the email or his source...that's B.S.. Likewise, whoever sent that email (because I assume Teddy is being truthful about some source in Mayweather's camp whom he trusts absolutely, if blindly) is not coming forward. As was stated in the most recent Ring, anyone (including Teddy) who is foolish enough to think that if such an email existed, it wouldn't be published as proof if it were legitimate, is foolish enough to be taken in by this hearsay backdoor "publishing" of it. Shame on the otherwise bulletproof Mr. Atlas for being duped by what must be a longtime friend. Teddy...go to this person and demand the email as proof that you were not duped...then publish it. If he refuses, then go on the air and say so as openly as you published the first "story".

For the uninitiated, I am referring to Teddy Atlas' having thrown gasoline on a smoldering fire lit solely by the Mayweather camp, by inexplicably throwing the weight of his reputation behind the accusation, by the Mayweather camp, that Pacquiao's camp was concerned their fighter might test positive for steroids. He related on a FNF broadcast that he'd been told by an inside source that he trusted absolutely that this source had received an email from the Pacquaio camp that asked whether IF their fighter DID test positive for steroids, if it could be covered up or bought off to preserve the fight and the sanctity of boxing.

Now...if anyone were stupid enough to write such an email, it WOULD be all but an admission. But would anyone really be that stupid? in the midst of a multimillion dollar negotiation? put it in writing? while it is conceivable, it's very highly unlikely that anyone who relies on Pacquiao himself for his living would write such an email at that time. However...if it were written, then why wouldn't it be published as proof by the recipient? After the fight has been called off? it would, wouldn't it? I think it would.

I strongly suspect that Mayweather was looking for a clever way to preserve his unbeaten record and wanted to push Pacquiao into a corner and prove to him he was the superior negotiator. If Pacquiao wouldn't give in to his every demand, no matter how onerous, Mayweather would walk away and make Pac look like he wouldn't submit to "olympic testing". Keep in mind that Pac did give a LOT of ground during negotiations, agreeing to testing that is definitely not required by either the sanctioning state athletic commission or the belt sanctioning body. For him to give more would have made Pac look AND feel as if he'd given away everything to take the fight. He was willing to fight...and Mayweather was not.

Now Mayweather is going into the Mosley fight hoping that he's finally waited long enough so that father time takes away the risk that Mosley represented. I hope he's wrong and that Mosley has enough left in the tank to destroy Mayweather. That would be just. I think it's a good fight, but it's not the fight I want to see. I'll buy it, but I suspect that Mayweather can outquick Mosley enough to win going backwards, like he did against Delahoya. Recall how ecstatic he was to take that close decision from Oscar. Mayweather knows he can't take out the guy who retired Oscar on his stool, so he chooses the now-38 year old version of Mosley. Mosley has aged well, but he's a much less risky fight for the cowardly Mayweather than is Pac.

Floyd Mayweather, Jr. is a skilled defensive fighter with exceptional speed, but he's not the best fighter of his generation, let alone in the pantheon of all time greats BECAUSE he's ducked the toughest fights in his career at the toughest times. Pacquiao is his career-defining fight and he won't take it. He won't take it because he's afraid he will lose. He won't take it because, relatvie to Pac-man, he is a coward.

Klitschko v. Johnson: Heavyweight Lamb to Slaughter?

2009-12-13T00:03:00.003-05:00

HBO goes right to the fight post Malignaggi/Diaz, as taped earlier in an apparently empty ring in Bern, Switzerland. No question that Johnson is a huge underdog, probably no less than Buster Douglas was against Tyson. the difference is that Klitschko is not a fool convinced he no longer has to train. He is a smart and dedicated champion with a massive reach advantage.

ROUND ONE - Johnson is laying way back on the ropes and it seems Johnson is trying to wait him out, maybe tire Klitschko out. Johnson mounts almost no offense and loses the round on aggression alone 10-9.

ROUND TWO - Klitschko picking up the pace and trying to drop a big right hand in behind a shoving jab. Johnson almost completely defensive, but not yet hurt. Finally with a minute left, they move to ring center...but Johnson not seeming to try to punch...just trying to survive. Johnson is a big guy himself, not so dwarfed as many of Klitschko's opponents are...but he's still the smaller man. As the round ends, Klitschko begins to land and it's easily Klitschko's round 20-18.

ROUND THREE - Knowing nothing about Johnson, I called this fight to end by KO in round five. We'll see. Johnson is mugging for Klitschko as he lays on the ropes and invites him in. He's still getting the worst of it as Klitschko goes up 30-27.

ROUND FOUR - Johnson is clearly unafraid in there and is, as Kellerman describes, a skilled defensive fighter...but he's not showing any offense. Lennox Lewis speculates that Johnson is waiting unti the later rounds, but not showing enough offense to win rounds is going to be tough to overcome. Klitschko IS red around his left eye and his mouth is hanging open, so some of Johnson's flicking jabs are finding their mark. Johnson is talking to Klitschko a LOT and taunting him as the round ends. It's fun to watch, if it's a strategy intended to enrage Klitschko...it may be working...though that may be a crazy strategy. Again, it's easily Klitschko's round...though closer this time 40-36.

ROUND FIVE - Johnson scoring well with his flicking jab even while eating right hands. He's behind halfway through, but not by as much. Johnson is not being dominated, which is something that is not the case with many Klitschko opponents and Vitali does look more, if not exactly tired, then...interested in trying to get rid of Johnson so he can stop having to work so hard. Still Klitschko's round though 50-45.

ROUND SIX - With a minute left, Klitschko is not doing anything effective and Johnson landing. Johnson ducks his head a lot. I can give this one to Johnson in good conscience. Klitschko was definitely the aggressor, but Johnson was more effective and landed a lot of counter jabs and one nice left hook. It becomes 59-55 favoring Klitschko.

ROUND SEVEN - Klitschko starting to get a little wild, seemingly interested in getting Johnson out of there. Johnson is not hurt and against Klitchko that is an accomplishment. More of the same, but Johnson not landing as much. Vitali takes the round, going up 69-64.

ROUND EIGHT - Lennox speculating earlier than Vitali may have a bum right shoulder because he's not turning over his punches with that hand and I don't disagree, but then Johnson is a good boxer and not giving Klitschko good looks, even if he's overmatched. Johnson slips a lot of punches, but he's not throwing enough big punches to give himself a chance. Johnson closes strong, stinging Klitschko with jabs...but it's not enough as Vitali is more effective and aggressive all round long, going up 79-73.

ROUND NINE - A carbon copy of past rounds with Johson laying on the ropes here and there and everywhere and Klitschko standing in front of him, stalking him and throwing...missing mostly and hitting enough. Vitali goes up 89-82.

ROUND TEN - Johnson completely defensive, not even bothering to try to punch. He's avoiding the worst of the punishment that Vitali is trying to dole out, but that's not going to get him anything. Johnson is not engaging, bobbing and weaving instead...as if demonstrating boxing skill without punching is an art. It is. It's a losing art. 99-91 for Klitschko.

ROUND ELEVEN - Lennox calls it kind of like a sparring session where a guy is working on his defense against a big man. All of the HBO team discussion focuses on Johnson's failure to mount or even attempt to mount any offense. Johnson taunts Klitschko at rounds end, as if his aggression while the clock is ticking actually exists. It doesn't, in any measure that might win him a round. Vitali's round again, making it 109-100.

ROUND TWELVE - We keep waiting for the cocky Johnson to come out of his bobbing crouch fighting...but he never does and with a minute left, it becomes clear he never will. He's satisfied to not get KO'd. And even now, Vitali trying to close the show...but Johnson continues to dodge and bob and weave.

At the fight's end, Johnson shows some heart, literally in the last ten seconds, lets his hands go. Not the time to do it. It's still a walkover, just not a KO. Final Tally: 119-109 for Klitschko. The official scorecards 120-108, 120-108 and 119-109. As it should be. Not close, but twelve good rounds of work. Pretty much a shutout.

Malignaggi v. Diaz II: No Excuses or Automatic Rubber Match?

2009-12-12T23:00:00.003-05:00

Well, as I watch the ring walk live, I scanned my call of the last fight and see I called it even 114-114. I recall this was a very good fight the first time around and Malignaggi complained bitterly that it was fixed and that he'd been hometowned in Houston by Golden Boy and the Texas athletic comission. Well, this time around it's in Chicago, so no excuses. I may simply watch this one and limit my descriptions, but we'll see. Considering the way Malignaggi lost it after the last fight, I'm surprised and gratified to see Diaz willing to rematch elsewhere. That's the way it should be and the way it should be is too seldom seen in boxing. Credit to Golden Boy too for allowing it to happen. I said last time around that Golden Boy pulled all the stops out to protect their fighter and assure a result. Allowing the rematch doesn't jibe with that...except that it was a good fight and if Malignaggi wins, it guarantees fight number three. Am I cynical or what?

ROUND ONE - Diaz not as aggressive as usual and Malignaggi is quicker once again. Malignaggi plays to the crowd and Diaz not active enough. Malignaggi lands better and takes round one to go up 10-9.

ROUND TWO - Diaz looks wary to step in and engage and the speed differential is obvious. Malignaggi is using the larger (this time) 20 foot ring to dance away after landing. Diaz is unable to bull rush as is his usual tactic. When he does, Malignaggi is gone. Again, now I think that all of teh things that favored Diaz last time are gone and his edge (making it more even) with it. Diaz didn't land a punch that I saw and Malignaggi clearly did. Nothing spectacular, but it's enough. Malignaggi goes up 20-18.

ROUND THREE - Diaz cut over left eye from a punch. Diaz finally mixes it up about a minute in and the fun exchange comes out about even, though Diaz will probably be over-credited because it's the first time he really engaged with any success. The round is a close one as Diaz lands a few times while Malignaggi carries every other moment. I can't call it even so it goes to Malignaggi for being more consistent. Malignaggi up 30-27.

ROUND FOUR - Amazing to see Diaz throwing so little compared to his workrate in the past. Diaz does seem to be sticking to a gameplan of jabbing with Malignaggi. If that's the reason he's so inactive, then it's a fool's errand. Malignaggi is a slickster first and foremost and he'll win a boxing match when it's against a similarly feather fisted fighter like Diaz. Diaz is completely ineffective, not landing anything while Malignaggi not doing anything spectacular...but enough to carry the round. Malignaggi pulling away 40-36.

ROUND FIVE - Diaz finally pins malignaggi against the conrner, but Malilgnaggi spins away. Now Diaz tagging Malignaggi a minute in and Diaz is more effective. Lennox absolutely right: Malignaggi is foolish to engage when he's winning by boxing. Diaz easily ahead in the round for the first time as a result. Simply because Malignaggi decided stupidly to stand and fight. in the last half of the round, Malignaggi reverts to boxing, but the round is lost barring a huge reversal. Diaz' first round, making it 49-46 favoring Malignaggi.

ROUND SIX - A minute in, Malignaggi is standing and inviting Diaz into a jabbing contest, convinced he can't lose and Diaz keeps it even.When he stops and "plays", as Lennox Lewis calls it, Malignaggi absorbs punches. He hurts Diaz! ...and doesn't even try to finish him...he mugs and waves to the crowd. He bolo punches and waits the round out. The damage switches the round back to Malignaggi 59-55.

ROUND SEVEN - Unbelievably, Diaz' corner tells him to "take this round off". Wow. Harold Lederman is right: it's "nonsense" for Diaz' corner to tell him to take the round off. Halfway through, the round is a total bore. Diaz waiting and Malignaggi not attacking. Ugly. Lennox says he never had a trainer tell him to take a round off unless he was winning the fight. Diaz is clearly behind. Very strange. With less than a minute left, it's a dancing inactive fight. Ten second stretches with either fighter not punching only twitching at each other. Neither fighter deserved the round, so I'll give it to the aggressor Diaz, so it's 68-65 favoring Malignaggi.

ROUND EIGHT - Active, close round that goes to Diaz, narrowing the gap to 77-75 favoring Malignaggi. Diaz isn't particularly effective, but he's more aggressive.

ROUND NINE - Malilgnaggi goes back to boxing and with a half minute left, he is again getting the better of exchanges where he doesn't stick around to allow Diaz to fall in while punching. The round pretty clearly goes to Malignaggi, putting him back up by two rounds 87-84.

ROUND TEN - I wish Kellerman would stop hedging his bets by calling "early rounds that could go either way", seeming to want to give an out, even while acknowledging that he scored those rounds for Malignaggi. The ref gave Diaz an eight count! and the announcers say there is no standing eight count, so there was a knockdown called. That makes it a mandatory 10-8 round for Malignaggi. Malignaggi cuffed Diaz and spun Diaz and the glove brushed the ground. A bad call probably. Regardless, it's now 97-92.

ROUND ELEVEN - Diaz definitely getting the better of the round, though Malignaggi clearly not hurt. Malignaggi not seeming to care to fight hard, while Diaz is definitely more aggressive, even while Malignaggi talking to the HBO team from the ring (that he's blocking what might look like big landed punches). Diaz' round, making it 106-102.

ROUND TWELVE - Diaz more aggressive and more efffective, but not hurting Malignaggi. Diaz finishing stronger, but Malignaggi not withering away, just not active. Diaz' round, making the final tally on my card favoring Malignaggi 115-112.

The Judge's scorecards are identical: 116-111 for Malignaggi, declaring the "new NABO champion". Big whoop. Do I want to see a third fight? Eh. I imagine Golden Boy has contracted for an automatic rematch with HBO, so we'll probably have to see it. Malignaggi probably wins it again, if his ten cent head doesn't come into play (which it might).

Once again, Malignaggi is an interesting post-fight interview. You have to love how candid he is, even if his brashness is off-putting. He classily refuses to take the bait to bash former trainer Buddy McGirt...which would be easy after we all saw McGirt unfairly pull him out of a big fight when he wanted and was able to continue. Max Kellerman is right: Malignaggi has upped his value in a packed division. He calls out Ricky Hatton, but there's little chance that will happen.

Williams v. Martinez: sleeper fight of the year

2009-12-06T10:45:00.005-05:00

I tuned in to the HBO 12/6/09 matchup between Paul Williams and Sergio Martinez not knowing what to expect, but figuring this was another showcase for Williams. As I heard the HBO crew announce that these two fighters were the best 154 pounders on the planet fighting a non-title bout at 16o lbs., I wondered how on earth I'd never even heard of Martinez, whom Jim Lampley announced is the "fastest fighter in the world at 154 pounds" (in Lampley's opinion). I had my doubts. Then the fight began.

As I watched the first round, figuring I'd see Williams batter Martinez, I got what I expected...at first. Martinez looked ineffective, backpedaling and dancing away and forced by Williams to fight at an uncomfortable pace. When Martinez was dropped halfway through the first, it was exactly as I'd expected. Then a funny thing happened...Martinez shook it off and, taking advantage of Williams' wild and apparently misguided effort to press his advantage, floored Williams in return near the rounds end. It was on.

Because Williams is such an action fighter...as long as his opponent is capable of trading with him... he promises an action fight. The catch is that he's faced few fighters capable of maintaining his literal throw a punch every two seconds on average plus pace. Even those who have managed to do it wilt under the constant pressure, Williams' reach advantage and his willingness to take heavy leather in order to give. This was just such an action fight, mostly because Martinez never fully wilted.

A clearly fast handed and skilled counterpuncher, Martinez spent almost the entire fight backing up. No surprise there. Williams naturally comes forward the entire fight, punching constantly. It must take a special fighter to stand in there for 36 minutes, as Martinez did. Indeed, he probably did follow the template set by the only fighter to take a decision win (or any win for that matter) away from a Williams fight: Carlos Quintana. Quintana was preternaturally sharp in his first fight with Williams, using pinpoint counterpunching to bloody Willliams for a full twelve rounds and giving Williams a boxing lesson in the process. It was a lesson that Quintana could not manage to re-teach in the rematch, suffering a quick KO to Williams...but he'd showed how to beat Williams (or at least showed how to fare well): punish Williams for his punchrate style consistently enough that you win rounds and be in good enough shape that you don't wear down. Quintana had to fight the fight of his life to do it, then couldn't duplicate that feat. Martinez was nearly up to the task.

I didn't score the fight, but I probably should have. I didn't expect the fight to be as close or as good as it was, frankly. I could go back and score it again and it's a good enough fight to warrant that, but I haven't yet done it. I know this: every round was competitive and I only saw one round, I recall it was the 8th, where the fighters seemed to take the first half off. Otherwise, nearly every moment of every round was a punch-filled slugfest. As Max Kellerman opined, it was like Gatti/Ward, but contested at a higher level of skill. The analogy is imperfect, but apt. These guys were both there to win and they threw a lot of bad intention punches and each absorbed a lot of punishment. The momentum actually didn't seem to shift as much as some super action fights do...and that is why I leaned toward Williams. He drove the action, following Martinez throughout the fight and forcing Martinez to engage, but almost only ever in response.

And engage Martinez did. As is typical for Williams, he was throwing about 90-100 punches a round, but he seemed less accurate than I've seen him before. I suspect that he took Martinez lightly. The HBO team intoned that Williams' trainer had predicted a quick KO. Credit however should go to Martinez because as much as it's possible Williams wasn't razor sharp, Martinez may have been making him miss. Martinez' hands were faster and while giving away a full six inches in height and probably a comparable amount in reach, he landed consistently all night. He keeps his hands down at his sides between flurries, literally dropping them at his sides. It's amazing he was able to maintain that stylistic flaw against the ever-pursuing Williams, but he did. He changed tactics successfully at least once, adding a straight lefthanded body attack about halfway through the fight, temporarily causing a ripple in Williams' constant aggression. He also landed cleanly at least as frequently, if not more frequently, than did Williams. Then how did he lose?

Well, since I didn't score it I'd have to defer to the actual judging and Harold Lederman's card (which seemed fair and had the fight even at 95-95 going into the two final "championship rounds"of the 12 round fight). I'm tempted to throw out the 119-110 score by the ringside Judge who, along with a 115-113 score for Williams threw the fight to him. Indeed, Julie Lederman (yes, Harold's daughter) scored it even at 114-114. The one lopsided score seems unrealistic, even if you scored most of the close rounds for Williams. Martinez was consistently more effective in enough rounds to take enough rounds to make it close. Jim Lampley bluntly called that Judge "blind." The Martinez camp literally screamed "travesty" from behind their fighter when asked about it post-fight by Kellerman. I suspect I'd have given the final two close rounds to Williams, especially the closing round. Martinez was obviously wearing out and though he kept up his counterattack even then, it was clearly borne more of a fighting spirit than conditioning. He was pushing past his limits, which while admirable, highlited the fact that Williams had walked through the best he could give, kept coming with a higher punchrate, and still looked ready to go into no longer extant rounds 13 to 15.

Bottom line, Williams' constant aggression again carried the day for him. Martinez was definitely effective, but since he could do little more than backpedal all night long, firing from his back foot while the iron-chinned (mostly...once he realized he was in a fight, anyway) Williams advanced. The barrage made Martinez look like he was the one who had bitten off more than he could chew, rather than the other way around. Kellerman claimed in the post-fight interview that he'd scored it for Martinez. While that score was unquestionably plausible, I would disagree and tend to think, as I thought was the case with some lengthy portions of Lampleys' call, that a card for Martinez would have to be predicated on spending more time watching what Martinez was doing, to the exclusion of Williams. It's an easy mistake to make because Williams is so constant that to see the aggression effectively counter-attacked is enticing. Martinez was indeed able to do so in spots and he showed great heart and skill...but that is not to say he won the fight. He was able to make it close...which against Paul Williams means you are a special fighter. At least on this night.

Which brings us to the best question: rematch? Martinez says he wants to do it and Williams says he's willing. I say do it! Will Martinez be able to handle a fully prepared Williams, who definitely won't take him lightly a second time around? Quintana couldn't. Does anyone else want to fight either of these guys? probably not. Can they build a meaningful rivalry between the two of them and continue to raise both their profiles with great fights? maybe...but the problem is that Williams won this one. It would work better if Martinez had won. Apart from not being able to find a fighter anywhere in the vast division neighborhood he's willing to occupy (from 147 lb to 160 lb and beyond), there's little incentive for Williams. But that "noone will fight me" problem is very real for him and I for one, would like to see this fight again. Will Martinez be another Quintana? I think not. But then again, do I think he can beat Williams in a rematch? No. But still...a realfightfan loves to see a real fight. And both of these men are real fighters.

Andre Ward: God's Super-middleweight Sheriff?

2009-11-22T12:59:00.003-05:00

There's a new sheriff in the violent and exciting wild west show of a town that the super-middleweight division has become...and his name is Andre Ward. In fact, to listen to sheriff Ward, it's God who handed him the badge. Let's address that first. Andre...are you aware that by claiming God is in your corner and giving credit to him and his son Jesus Christ for your victory, you're not just implying...but you're saying that Mikkel Kessler is less favored in God's eyes than you are? How charitable is that? And which of the deadly sins, if you subscribe to that list, is that? Oh yeah...pride.

My point is...please Andre, feel free to wear your faith on your sleeve and give credit to your faith in your creator, but stop intoning that if "God is in your corner, can't no one be against you...". It's a boxing match. And when you lose, will God have been against you? Of course not. It will all have been in his big plan, right? Well, so then was this.

Next, a big thank you to Showtime for this next installment in the Super-middleweight Showdown Super Six Tournament. This definitely felt like a fight that would never have been made, but for the tourney. Why would Kessler travel to Ward's Oakland backyard to put his title on the line? He wouldn't have, particularly since there are plenty of european names in the division (participating in this tournament...Froch, Abraham) or less dangerous names like Bute or Andrade who would still pad the resume. Credit to Kessler for agreeing to put his belt on the line in the name of division supremacy. Without him, the whole idea falls apart.

I wonder how Kessler feels today though, now that the risk seems to have outstripped the reward? He'll get his chance for redemption, but if last night was any indicator...he's got no answer for Andre Ward. As we've learned clearly lately (about 30 pounds south), speed kills. Well last night it killed Kessler dead.

The WBA champ Kessler looked like the overmatched challenger all night. Former USA Gold medalist Ward settled in early, realizing his speed advantage, and never took his foot off the gas. I agree with Al Bernstein of the Showtime crew that he looked a little reckless in the middle rounds, throwing wildly and taking unnecessary risks, but I suspect that he sensed Kessler was totally confounded. Used to walking his opponents down, Kessler clearly hadn't faced anyone with such a sizeable speed advantage since he'd logged his only previous defeat to Joe Calzaghe.

By the third round, Ward was loading up and by the sixth of a scheduled twelve, Ward was backing Kessler up and moving him around at will. I gave a desperate Kessler the 9th round (the only round he won on my card) on sheer aggressiveness, but he was ineffective. The ringside judges managed to find another round to give to Kessler (the imported dutch judge found even one more...though how is one of the mysteries of boxing scoring), but it easily could have been scored a shutout.

Now there is no question that Ward was tying up more than was Kessler and one of his butts looked intentional to me, something he denied in the post-fight interviews. Denying he is a "dirty fighter", the replay showed Ward turning his whole body in toward Kessler, head down, and showing no effort to bring his gloves up. Classic billygoat move. Because this came later in a fight where another such move had prompted a mild warning from the referee, I would have taken a point for it. However, otherwise his holding wasn't as excessive as Kessler claimed in a slightly cringe-worthy whining post-fight interview, especially for a longtime champion who was so thoroughly outclassed. Kessler managed to pack a lot of whine into a two minute interview for a guy who absorbed so much leather: the ref home-towned him, he was held all night, he was deliberately butted.

Even if all that was true...he got his behind whupped by a superior boxer. In the end, that was all that mattered. Indeed, the fight did go to the scorecards in the eleventh after the fight was stopped because Kessler's cuts were too severe to allow him to continue and the offending cut was ruled to have been caused by an unintentional headbutt. The scores were lopsided, as they should have been. I had it 99-91 for the challenger and two judges had it 98-92, with the last imported judge scoring it 97-93.

So...how good is Ward? Well, he looked tremendous and made Kessler look slow by comparison. But the beauty of the Super Six tournament, as was ably pointed out by Jim Grey (whom I'm loathe to laud), makes it possible that the next scheduled opponent can dethrone Ward. Who is that? Jermaine Taylor. He who has been so consistently written off by...well...everyone. How will Jermaine do? I predict he beats Ward. Unless these KOs he's recently endured make him drop a step, which I don't think they will, Ward will take him light and it will cost Ward his new crown. Taylor is underestimated, even now...and Ward doesn't have the one-punch power to endanger Taylor at fight's end (the way Froch and Abraham have done).

Great fight. Great tournament. Looking forward to the next installment. Now can we PLEASE stop showing the MMA fighters on boxing night. Herschel Walker is a fool to try MMA. I know at the opening of this website, I've given props to the courage of MMA fighters and that is unchanged, but if you've read this deep into my posts than you can now know what I think of the sport itself: human cockfighting. The fighters are often underqualified, the matches are made without regard to skill and the pool of fighters is shallow and the entire sport run by one or two men who own all the fighters, purses and matchmaking. Interestingly, boxing is deep, strong and honest by comparison. MMA will see it's day pass and thank God (see Andre? I can go to the well, too) for Pacman and Mayweather...the latest in a series of fights to "save" boxing. The bloodsport just civilized enough to survive and thrive against all comers.

Manny Pacquiao: best fighter today...or ever?

2009-11-15T00:34:00.004-05:00

As I watch the post-fight highlights even before the particulars are announced, I can't help but wonder whether we're getting the privilege of watching the best boxer ever to lace on gloves: Manny Pacquiao. As he picks up his record seventh title in seven weight divisions, the arguments are strong. To hear Pacquiao compared by Emmanuel Steward with the caliber of fighter of Sugar Ray Robinson seems proof positive. What a brutal pleasure to get to see the prime of the Pac-man. Manila is surely going wild tonight.

Miguel Cotto clearly came prepared and expected to be able to match speed with Manny. At first, it seemed possible. Then Manny warmed up. He dropped Cotto in the third and fourth rounds and began to mark him up so badly that Cotto's face was ground beef by the time it was stopped in the 12th. Ever the classy guy, Cotto agreed to be interviewed in the ring after the fight by Larry Merchant where we got to see the extent of the damage. Cotto didn't hide behind sunglasses and his eyes were so badly swelled and reddened that it was a wonder he could see out of either eye.

I had Pacquiao ahead 107-99 by the time Kenny Bayless mercifully stepped in, giving Pacquiao the TKO in the 12th. The once-proud Cotto spent almost the entire second half of the fight running from the smaller, faster Pacquiao. Pacquiao meanwhile walked him down, eventually getting obviously frustrated by Cotto's unwillingness to engage, rushing occasionally to pin Cotto in a corner or against the ropes to inflict more damage...and waiting for someone to stop the carnage. It wasn't going to be Cotto, so eventually the referee did it.

The second knockdown was really telling. Pacquiao rope-a-doped Cotto for almost a full minute, then flushed a left uppercut while backing out from a close quarters exchange and took away Cotto's legs. Cotto clearly didn't see it coming and he admitted in the post-fight that, predictably, his biggest problem was that he was unable to defend himself against punches he couldn't see coming. Speed kills.

My prediction of a seventh round KO almost came true. Indeed, I wrote as I watched that I almost felt sorry for the brave Cotto who, so clearly prepared and steeled for battle, was so badly outmatched. Cotto was totally defensive by that point and between the seventh and eighth, his corner told him to "keep away...move side to side", apparently resigned to the result even that early because at that point their fighter was already down at least five points down.

So...how will Mayweather handle Pacquiao? As the HBO team pointed out, the economics of the fight seem to make it impossible not to make happen. It would probably outstrip DelaHoya/Mayweather in pay-per-view buys...which is what we presume Mayweather has been waiting for. Or is it? I wonder if Mayweather will keep up the running outside the ring that has characterized his ring presence in the ring. I hope not, but if history tells us anything...it's possible. He refused to rematch Delahoya, whom he barely scraped past. Keep in mind that Pac ate DelaHoya up. The reverse comparison of Mayweather/Marquez is a little less convincing, where it comes to comparing common opponents.

But styles make fights and this matchup matches speed against speed. And Pac's speed is better, but Mayweather's skills as a defensive fighter are better. Can Mayweather survive long enough to take a decision? potshot and slip away? tie Pac up, land and turn out...over and over and over? These are the questions that make up the analysis. He's definitely willing..we know that much.

By that I mean that Mayweather has proven that he is perfectly willing to win ugly and by decision. He doesn't mind backing up, tying up, potshotting and running away. He possesses just enough speed, skill and willingness to do it to Pac for 12 full rounds. My first instinct is that Mayweather wins a disappointingly dull decision where Pacquiao spends half the night inviting him to fight, chasing him and eating a single shot coming in, then coming up empty...over and over. The other half, he spends tied up by Mayweather, who slips, uppercuts and rabbit punches around Pac's guard. Mayweather by ugly decision.

Our collective hope is that Pacquiao, with his otherworldly speed (rivaled perhaps only by Mayweather himself actually), can make Mayweather pay for his hubris and willing half-cowardice. Mayweather backs out warily and lightning fast from his one or two punch mini-offensives. Can Manny, who comes quicker and with heavy leather from more difficult angles than any fighter alive, jump in and catch Floyd? Maybe...just maybe. I'll definitely tune in.

As for Miguel Cotto, he gave us a brave fight. But he was badly outmatched. I'm amazed at that though, because he is a fast fighter. He did match Mosley's speed and Mayweather has been ducking Mosley his whole career, presumably because of Mosley's speed and power. If Mosley was matched on speed by Cotto, but Cotto was blown out by Pacquiao...the speed differential may well carry over and we'll see Mayweather fall exactly as we've seen DelaHoya and Cotto fall. These were two great fighters. Both utterly destroyed by the speed of Manny Pacquiao. Wow. That's all there is left to say. Wow.

Pacquiao v. Cotto prediction and Chad Dawson finally beats Johnson

2009-11-09T22:20:00.002-05:00

First of all, let me say that Max Kellerman's statement at the conclusion of Dawson/Johnson II was weak: "now 6 judges in two states have decided Chad Dawson got the better of Glen Johnson."

It's weak because anyone who watched the first fight knows that Glencoffe Johnson won that fight. It wasn't that close...and most tellingly, there would never have been a second fight but for that fact. Whether Dawson took Johnson lightly the first time around or Johnson the journeyman gatekeeper fought over his head that night isn't clear. What absolutely was clear was that Johnson got the better of a gunshy, overwhelmed and backpedaling Dawson. At the time, I didn't really know either fighter and watched the fight because I'd heard tell of the skill of Dawson. What I tuned in to see was a boxing lesson administered by the opponent, who then was robbed by judges who only apparently spent the fight watching what Dawson did and stole a decision for him. Their robbery may count on the fighter's records, but any realfightfan like Max purports to be would not belittle a fading Johnson at the conclusion of the lopsided second fight by mentioning the travesty of the first fight.

As for the rematch, it was a walkover and quite predictably so. Importantly, Dawson has matured. He fought more consistently and avoided going to war, which will always favor the cagey Johnson, even now. Next, Dawson didn't take Johnson lightly this time. This could be judged by the way he stayed away, didn't seem surprised at Johnson's pressure and used his natural reach advantage to stay out of danger. Finally, he waited until Johnson was a little older to rematch him. He didn't take him right away...he waited. Years during the prime of a boxer's career are usually almost interchangeable...but at the end of a boxer's career, months let alone years can make a big difference. "Bad" Chad Dawson didn't rematch Glencoffe right away. He let Johnson age a bit...and at Johnson's age, that's a lot.

Now for the prediction. Okay, the truth is that I haven't given this a lot of thought because I'm really looking forward to a good fight and without overanalyzing it (on purpose until now), I've been expecting to get it. Will we get a great fight? Well, let's think about it. I'm not aware of whether there is a catchweight, so I'm assuming the fight is being made at 146 lbs, Cotto's natural fighting weight and the same weight Pacquiao fought Oscar, if I recall correctly. Pacquiao blew out Ricky Hatton at 142 lbs..

What are the arguments for Cotto? He is closer to his natural weight, though as he's getting a little older (not old), he's probably having a bit more trouble making 146 lb. Will doing so sap his strength? I think not. He's a year-round trainer and a very serious character. So he'll be at full strength, whatever that means. When I first saw Cotto, he looked unbeatable. One of, if the single best body puncher I've ever seen. But lately, he's been abandoning that trademark attack. He went to war with Margarito, only to find that the tough Mexican could absorb ungodly amounts of heavy leather to the face (while dishing out a disproportionately heavy attack because of surely loaded gloves). Despite his failed strategy, Cotto was clearly winning the fight until the later rounds, when he suddenly seemed to flag under the heavy (and loaded) hands of Margarito. Battered, Cotto succumbed to the cheater, sinking to his knees and defenselessly absorbing shot after shot as he fell. That image is tough to shake when considering the fighter...even though that's like deeply unfair to Cotto.

Sadly, boxing is not like baseball where the consequences of cheating are longer home runs or fewer injuries. The consequences are written in blood across the psyches of the defeated fighters, etched indelibly too in our collective memories. When the fighters don't die, we are lucky. And as a pertinent aside, Antonio Margarito should never again be allowed to put on prizefighter's gloves for pay, in my opinion. How wonderful was it that the ageless Sugar Shane exposed him one way, then the other and cast him (hopefully...I'm talking to you athletic commissions) into obscurity and infamy where he belongs.

Has Cotto recovered? He says so. He knows Margarito cheated that night, though he wasn't caught (that night). We all do. Is that enough? Can a fighter, even one as dedicated and tough as Cotto, regain the mojo that Margarito stole from him when he took his zero? I don't think so. The tattoos that Cotto has added seem to me like armor to ward off doubt. He is still shaping himself into a weapon, but he will never again be the undefeated Cotto who demolished Malignaggi and was walking through his opponents, killing the body to watch the head die.

Why has Cotto abandoned the body attack that got him into the elite conversation? Who knows. Perhaps it's too attractive to punch another elite fighter in the head, as was the case with Margarito. Perhaps he feels challenged and can't either access the body or must have the style of the fight dictated to him, as was the case with Mosley. Whatever the reason, if he doesn't spend the first few rounds taking Pacquiao's legs away, he will be in trouble because while he's definitely a tough guy, he's proven he can be knocked down. And not just by Margarito. He's been down before to lesser fighters.

Speed kills. Who is faster? While Cotto is fast, Pacquiao is faster. How much faster? fast enough. I think Pacquiao, as he moves up and since he is clearly bringing serious power up with him at this weight, is creating matchup problems with his speed. He is simply able to get there first. Every time. And if that's true, then the question is how hard is he hitting? He hits hard. Ask Oscar. A career warrior forced into retirement on his stool rather than futilely absorb more punishment at Pacman's hands. Ask Hatton, who had no answer at all.

It's a popular pick to pick Pacquiao and he's easy to like, too. I do like him...but then again, I've always like Cotto and admired his heart, his toughness, his skill and his tenacity. If Cotto is to have a chance, he will have to back Pacquiao off. He may be able to accomplish that with body punching. But going low after the little man's body will expose his head and Pac is nothing if not an accurate headhunter. Cotto's style is not to keep his opponent off (the way Mayweather will, when he and Pac inevitably and finally tangle...if you want to call Mayweather turning it into a snoozefest to tangle). Cotto engages. And in this fight, when Cotto engages, he will find himself facing the same problem faced by his predecessor's at this weight: he will be getting hit hard in the face. One punch KO type of hard. Harder than a little man should hit. And Cotto can't train for that.

I call it for Pacquiao in round seven by KO. I hope it's a better fight than that, though. I don't know who I want to see win, but I want to see a good fight. I do think it will be a good fight for a while, but we will see Cotto become discouraged much earlier than we (who are not in the ring) think he should. He will all too likely be facing a problem that he can't solve. He'll come forward and engage the problem and the problem will solve him in return.

The Super Middleweight Tournament Begins!

2009-10-18T17:22:00.002-04:00

First I want to thank Showtime for putting on what is now panning out to be a great supermiddleweight tournament. Next, I want to complain about the quality of announcing.

Jermaine Taylor v. Arthur Abraham was a very good fight and pretty evenly matched, though Taylor clearly carried the majority of the rounds by sticking, moving and counterpunching with some effectiveness. Abraham spent the majority of the first half of the fight covering up in his peek-a-boo defense and Taylor kept him off-balance by hammering his guard, preventing him from getting off most of the time. What I've described for the first six rounds is practically indisputable, but if you heard the Steve Farhood-led call of this fight you would have thought it was a far more even match. The announcing team was so pro-Abraham that they seemed not to be watching Taylor at all. Every thrown punch by Abraham was a "hammering blow" whether landed or not. Abraham, stalled by the jabs drilling his guard, was "biding his time" as round after round slipped away. But not according the announcers, seemingly caught up in the emotion of the hugely pro-Abraham crowd, refused to acknowledge Taylor's dramatic edge in punchrate, thrown and landed.

Though Abraham, the repeatedly forgiven (and ignored, if the late round alleged tallies of the announcers are to be believed) "late starter" finally warmed up and began banging by round seven and eight, he merely began to make these rounds close. To my mind, Abraham was down at least three points going into the eleventh, where Taylor stepped up the pace and pulled ahead. Nonetheless, in the tenth, the announcing team started talking about how Abraham could be "coasting" because of his big lead on points and indeed at the end of a few rounds, including the end of the eleventh, he was dancing away for the last twenty or thirty seconds, seemingly assured of a win in the round.

Now I know that Abraham won by KO, nailing Taylor on the button with less than a minute left in a practical carbon copy of what Carl Froch did to Taylor just months ago, but this time, I didn't see Taylor fading. I saw him coming on and taking chances. Perhaps that's exactly what left him open to the straight shot on the chin that put him definitively down, but he was definitely in the fight. I was sorry to see Jermaine dropped. I think, considering the fight was clearly in Abraham's back yard, Taylor would have been hard pressed to win the decision he deserved, but to fight over 35 minutes of a 36 minute fight and get KO'd is a real bummer for a classy, fast fighter who will all too likely contiue to get derided (as the Showtime crew repeatedly did) for fading late...when he didn't. He got caught, but he was going full bore.

As for Abraham, he looked like a guy with heavy hands whose hand speed, when he opens up, is good...but I'm not yet sold. He fights like an undefeated fighter, meaning he hasn't yet learned he can lose (notwithstanding his decision win with a grotesquely shattered jaw against Miranda). He thinks that eventually he will catch up to his man...but as he gets into deep water, he'll find that the best fighters can elude him all fight long. That's what I figured Taylor would do...but his concentration lapsed...or he felt he had to wildly engage to win the last round to have a chance in a biased venue. As among these super middles, I'm not sure who's better...probably Kessler...probably Ward, too...but Abraham, by KO'ing Taylor in the last minute of a fight he, like Froch, was losing (by any fair measure) doesn't convince me to annoint him the best of the best. Happily, notwithstanding their poor announcing squad, Showtime is settling that.

The modified round-robin format was explained in detail on the telecast and, irrespective of the issues with hometown scoring and fan support, it seems very fair. I'm impressed that all of these diverse fighters and their teams could agree and I can only imagine that Showtime played a big role in the final arrangements. Thanks Showtime.

Now to bash showtime for their coverage of another great fight they arranged, and which showed in quick succession from the unconscionably pro-Froch British venue: Carl Froch v. Andre Dirrell. Dirrell is clearly the superior boxer. He was markedly faster on his feet, had distinctly better handspeed and punched with far more accuracy. His greatest asset however leads to his greatest shortcoming: he can get away, so he does get away. Meaning, since he can punch once or twice and dance away, avoiding harm, he does. For those of us who like to watch fighters mix it up, that can be frustrating...but for fans of the much slower, but hometown (for this fight) Carl Froch, this was infuriating.

Showering Dirrell with boos, the hometown fans went wild when Froch advanced and even tried to punch. The net effect was that the referee began to favor Froch, by ignoring his almost constant fouling, and the Showtime announcing crew apparently starting watching only Froch to see if and when he could connect. This fight was more lopsided that the Taylor/Abraham affair, again favoring the American fighter in a hostile venue, and again the announcing team was clearly swept away by the fever of the local fight crowd (as were the judges!). To be fair, Dirrell did at times look like he was afraid to engage, and Froch was relegated to stalker an awful lot...but the very frustration Froch felt exposed him for the dirty fighter he is.

And it was Dirrell who had the only point taken all night. I counted no less than nine obvious distinct rabbit punches by Froch and he only ever got warned. The referee seemed to hold Dirrell to a higher standard because he was so clearly the superior technician. Froch was seemingly allowed to get away with more holding and hitting, rabbit punching and bullying (literally throwing Dirrell to the canvas once, over his hip) because he had so much trouble with Dirrell's style: he just couldn't catch him. So it seemed to me that the ref was willing to forgive Froch his roughhouse tactics because well...that's the way he fights. In that case, taking a point from Dirrell for holding was so manifestly unfair that it smacked of an inside job.

Dirrell was classy in accepting the split decision that went Froch's way, seeming to know that he would live to fight another day. Indeed, take Froch out of a venue where his every aggressive movement yields a roar of approval and the result changes. Plug in a referee that keeps Froch honest, at peril of points, and the result would have been what it should have been: Dirrell by unanimous decision. Dirrell could stand to be more crowd pleasing in his style, something he needs to learn now that he's in with fighters who won't wilt when he dazzles with his speed, accuracy and even power. Failing to appreciate that cost him this fight, though I can't say that I think he had a fair shot. He said that he thought he did, in the post-right interview. I wonder, when he goes back to look at it again, if he'll still think so.

Here's to looking forward to the continuing tournament and hoping for it's success, so boxing gets a shot in the arm and more such tournaments can be arranged in different weight classes.

Klitschko v. Arreola "live"

2009-09-26T22:57:00.004-04:00

As I watch the immediate ramp-up to the fight, I appreciate Larry Merchant more every time I see him. I didn't always appreciate him, but once I learned that he was a ground floor investor in Joe Frazier's Cloverleaf investment group, I realized that he has wisdom and experience that I ought not be questioning. Like me, he described that three years ago he was "besotted" with Cristobal Arreola as a legitimately talented American heavyweight. He pled "guilty" to thinking (perhaps hoping) that Arreola has a better than the 5-1 oddsmakers shot that he's being given to beat Klitschko.

That 3 1/2 inch reach advantage is going to be tough for Arreola to overcome, especially given Klitschko's fighting style. Arreola is going to have to swarm Klitschko and endure some heavy shots coming in to have a chance. The lead-in implied that this will be his tack, given that his workrate is unusually high for a heavyweight. We will see. It's interesting to note how heavily pro-Arreola the Staples center Los Angeles is. I can't help but wonder why Klitschko agreed to fight this Mexican-American Heavyweight in such a heavily latino part of the world. He would easily have been able to fill a German stadium and such a crowd would have been equally pro-Klitschko. Interesting dynamic and I'm glad to see it. As boos rain down on the WBC heavyweight champion.... Nice to see a fight worth being excited about...and a heavyweight fight!

ROUND ONE - They come together. Klitschko stands tall and uses the jab. Arreola bobbing. Klitschko sticking the jab and Klitschko moving away. Arreola pursuing and ducking low to try to get under the guard, but not getting in. Arreola is throwing less halfway through. The round clock broken, so Jim Lampley giving us the time. Klitschko is keeping Arreola at arms length...and that is what makes him and his brother so tough. They make a good observation that Klitschko keeps his jabbing left hand low, bringing it up only to jab when necessary. Klitschko's round pretty easily, up 10-9

ROUND TWO - Klitschko sticking the jab and Arreola can't find anything to do. Arreola pins Klitschko's arm and digs a few shots to the beltline. Klitschko keeps Arreola at range and following up with an uppercut or two now and then. Arreolas' guard is high and he's chasing him...but Larry Merchant points out that Arreola not landing...but Klitschko is working harder than he wants to, according to Steward. Klitschko is leaning forward with his hands low almost taunting Arreola and Arreola not biting. Klitschko's round, going up 20-18.

ROUND THREE - Steward's observation is interesting and Klitschko looks a bit winded in his corner. I wonder if there is an opportunity there. Klitschko is punching much more than usual, according to the HBO crew...but now they are saying that Klitschko won't be bothered by the pace. Make up your mind! Klitschko dominating and moving and punching, jabbing and staying away. Klitscko better be in good shape because he is in fact having to move a lot. Arreola advancing but not throwing much. His guard remains high, but he doesn't look winded or hurt and Klitschko tends to look a little clunky at the two minute mark when he stumbles while still moving away. Certainly, Klitschko is moving and punching a lot more and Arreola is not punching. Merchant says that Arreola absorbing punishment will not allow him to outlast Klitschko because he's taking the worst of it. I hear that. 30-27 for Klitschko.

ROUND FOUR - Arreola still advancing and Arreola not opening up yet. Arreola making Klitschko move away and he does clunkily...but he does get away. Perhaps Arreola plans on wearing out Klitschko. Arreola is taking the distance away and it does start to look that way with a minute left...but Klitschko is still picking off the punches. Arreola making a go of it, but moving in with his guard up...but at this point, it's just not enough. Arreola not able to get past the length of Klitschko. A closer round, but still belongs to Klitschko 40-36.

ROUND FIVE - Klitschko doing the same thing. He and his brother are very similar in that they use their natural size to their advantage, though Vitali is more fluid...and even he is clunky and awkward as he moves away. He is not light on his feet...but light enough to get away. Klitschko looks mildly winded, but not seriously. With 40 seconds left, Klitschko's punchrate up and Arreola still waiting to throw and putting on the pressure. Arreola's hands are high and this round looks the same as the others, frankly. Klitschko again 50-45.

ROUND SIX - If Arreola is waiting to the late rounds, that's a gutsy strategy because Klitschko can stun Arreola at any time. So far, he hasn't...but a minute in, the fight isn't any different. Klitschko lands a body shot and Arreola advances, but not really punching. Areola lands and the crowd reacts. Klitschko looks like he felt it, but Klitschko keeps him off and Arreola is paying a high ongoing price for every landed punch. Even every thrown punch costs Arreola. Another round goes to Klitschko 60-54.

ROUND SEVEN - Arreola better pick up the pace even more if he wants to see Klitschko affected because Klitschko seems okay. He looks to be in shape. Lederman points out that Klitschko could be warned for holding and the HBO crew disagrees, but it's a legitimate point. With a minute left, it's the same fight. In the last round, the HBO team pointed out that Klitschko's recent opponents have been noticeably discouraged by this point and Arreola is not...but for the first time I see Arreola going backward. A little flurry at round's end doesn't come close to tipping it for Arreola. Klitschko goes up further, pitching a shutout 70-63.

ROUND EIGHT - Thirty seconds in, the referee does indeed jump in a little early considering that they weren't clinching. Arreola lands and Klitschko grabs. The ref is late in on this Klitschko initiated clinch. Klitschko starting to hold and Arreola closing the gap. Arreola really in it for the first time. Klitschko moving away and hitting Arreola as he moves away with hard shots. A much closer round, but the clean shots definitely belonged to Klitschko, who goes up further 80-72.

ROUND NINE - Klitschko has his back against the ropes and Arreola is digging to the ribs. They are definitely engaging a lot, but Arreola is backing up a bit, then comes forward and not getting the best of it. While Arreola sees his opportunity, Klitchko keeps landing hard shots. If Arreola can overcome this disadvantage, he will have absorbed a lot of punishment to do it. Arreola is a mask of blood and Klitschko still jabbing, throwing his right in afterwards and moving away. With thirty seconds left, it's just the same. Klitschko looks in control and wins another round 90-81.

ROUND TEN - Arreola's corner tells him he has to "take some chances" and I wonder how he has anything left, considering that Klitschko has landed cleanly a LOT. With two minutes left, Klitscko is still sticking and moving. Steward says that Arreola, based on damage taken, can't be thinking well and is in danger of being knocked out. With a minute left, the fight looks the same. Klitschko throwing a jab followed by a right hand and he moves away. Arreola has no solution. A right hand from Klitschko lands solidly and Arreola shakes his head. No way it didn't hurt him. The round goes for Klitschko 100-90. On their stools between rounds, the referee is waving it off...TKO for Klitschko and it's a good stoppage...

Well...that's disappointing, though not surprising. I certainly hoped that Arreola could find some way to solve Vitali, but as I said in the prediction...a solid unafraid technician will beat a puncher (especially if he has a 3 1/2 inch reach advantage). This was a walkover. I wonder if Arreola, who is literally weeping in the ring, is so disappointed because he hoped that Klitschko would fade in the last two rounds, but I certainly didn't perceive any chance of that. Klitschko still looked strong.

Klitschko is classy in the post-fight interview, giving Arreola credit and calling him a future world champion. Arreola sets a record for crying and cursing in his post-fight interview. He admits he couldn't get to Klitschko, but there wasn't anything new learned there. Larry Merchant admits his hope for Arreola was "going out on...not a branch, or a twig...but a leaf." True enough...I was out there with you, Larry...but my money wouldn't have been. The Klitschko brothers do completely rule the heavyweight division. Predictably so.

Prediction: Klitschko v. Arreola

2009-09-26T21:31:00.002-04:00

My recent record at predicting big fights hasn't been great, but since I'm not certain this qualifies as a big fight (except perhaps in the eyes of realfightfans...and I've been chomping at the bit for this one...a potentially action packed elite heavyweight matchup), I'd say I've got a decent shot.

Very recently, I've been carried away by the odds-defying ascent of Manny Pacquiao through the weight classes. I've picked an upset or two to apparently attempt to make some sense of the Pacquiao phenomenon. There's no making sense of it and picking against what I know to be true is folly. A good boxer (who doesn't have problems with intimidation) will beat a puncher or a brawler every time. He will make the lesser technician pay for every foray into the danger zone, keep out of trouble and be satisfied to win a decision handily on points (if the TKO doesn't come). The only thing that will change the equation is if the puncher is markedly quicker, as was the case with Pacman against DelaHoya. As a pertinent aside...on the strength of this simple analysis, the outcome of Mayweather v. Pacquiao becomes clear...which means that it will probably happen. This is because Mayweather only takes fights he will win...and that's why we won't see him in against Sugar Shane for another year or two, if ever. But I digress...

To apply this lesson to Klitschko/Arreola begs the question which between them is the superior technician. Well, I would lean toward Klitschko, though Arreola is a surprisingly good boxer. Arreola's problem is he lacks defense and leads with his face. He slips and moves a bit, has great power, punches in combination and is definitely a finisher...but he lacks defense and he leads with his face. Vitali is not the supersafe technician his brother has become, though it's kind of hard to judge what kind of fighter he is because he's fought so infrequently of late. He is technically sound and willing to mix it up. I perceive that he punches a bit harder than his brother (who doesn't exactly dole out love taps) and takes more chances than the bigger younger Klitschko, but he's a more natural boxer than Wladimir, more naturally ring savvy and more able to adapt to adversity.

Given the above, it seems possible that Vitali will take some chances and leave himself open for Arreola. That will give Arreola his puncher's chance. Can Arreola apply his boxing skills to make his own chance, if Vitali doesn't give it to him? Unlikely. The odds dictate that Vitali will keep Arreola at arms length, punish him when he attacks and wear him down. Arreola is a tough guy, proven resilient after knockdowns and able to adapt to some extent. That said, I doubt he has a solution for the Klitschko jab. I believe Klitschko will stay behind the jab, realizing that Arreola is indeed a threat and that Arreola will absorb a lot of leather. With Arreola's aggressiveness and desire, he will make a serious run at Klitschko as early as round two...but Klitschko will fend him off.

My heart says Arreola and I will be rooting for the USA fighter, but my head says Klitschko by TKO in round 8.

Mayweather v. Marquez "live"

2009-09-19T23:29:00.003-04:00

As I watch the final hype of the PPV and while watching the undercard, I was questioning the wisdom of my prediction of Marquez...so I went to see their measurements and how they've come up. I'm more convinced than ever that Marquez was a deeply unwise choice for Mayweather in his return. Mayweather is the bigger fighter, but not by as much as I thought. Mayweather stands 5'8" and Marquez is 5'7". Mayweather's reach is 72", while Marquez' is 67". Most importantly, for the purposes of my analysis...Mayweather started his career at 130, while Marquez started at 125.

This last statistic is telling as far as I'm concerned. Mayweather has moved up over and over, fighting as high as 154, while Marquez remained at true lightweight, never fighting higher than 135 his entire career. I seem to recall a fighter who fought the vast majority of his career at a lower weight, then jumped up dramatically and successfully past that weight. His name was Bernard Hopkins. It looks an awful lot like Marquez is not at all likely to be blown up at the 148 he is walking in at. If he brought himself up right, then he is likely to be very comfortable and feeling strong.

As the fighters do their ring walk, I also want to comment further briefly on Mayweather's refusal to make weight. That isn't a misprint. He didn't apparently fail to make the contracted weight. He refused to make 144. His camp contacted Marquez' camp sometime early in the final week to tell them he might not make weight. That tells me he didn't intend to and was fearful that losing the last two pounds would sap him. He forced Marquez to decide whether to forfeit the opportunity to make millions over two pounds. He then paid $300K per pound to Marquez. That speaks to fear and hubris...which is a dangerous combination....for Mayweather. I also looked back over Mayweather's opponents over the years. In their prime, there is no one on that list that matches Marquez' skills. With all of that said, Marquez has been known to hit the canvas. He can be rocked...but he hangs in, adjusts and is outstanding. I'll stick with my upset prediction of Marquez.

ROUND ONE - Out they come at the bell and it's on. Both fighters posing. Mayweather moving forward a bit, but both very much trying to measure the other. If it stays this way, Mayweather wins. HBO's Emmanuel Steward claims that Mayweather's speed is unmatched by Marquez. We'll see. With a minute left, it's a bore with a light edge to Mayweather. Marquez scores and it gets closer to even. Marquez flurries with ten seconds left, but I give it narrowly to Mayweather 10-9.

ROUND TWO - If Mayweather keeps Marquez at range, he will win easily. I don't see that happening and indeed Marquez scores a combination to start the round, but only then does Mayweather answer. Marquez lands a straight right. Knockdown for Mayweather! Kellerman says Marquez is in "bad trouble". He looks okay from here...but hard to say. I almost missed the punch so it must have been a short hook. Marquez is bouncing back well. And it would seem that Marquez' habit of digging himself a hole is being perpetuated here. REPLAY shows it was a short left hook that dropped Marquez.

ROUND THREE - Mayweather up 20-17 after loggin a 10 - 8 round with the knockdown. The HBO team says Marquez is noticeably slower. It doesn't look that way from here...but perhaps it's different live? Lampley is spewing love for Mayweather and Kellerman takes up that flag and runs with it, calling the counterpunching safe-fighting Mayweather "pretty entertaining so far." Only insofar as there was a knockdown. Still...Mayweather is stymying everything that Marquez is putting out there. Another boring round...for Mayweather, who goes up 30-26.

ROUND FOUR - Marquez opens the round landing a right over the top and Mayweather shakes his head. Now the HBO team says Marquez looked discouraged in his corner. We can't evaluate what they don't show us...Marquez lands hard with a right hand over the top. Mayweather smiles, wich acknowledges that it landed. Mayweather landing jabs pretty consistently. I'm giving that round to Marquez because he landed the bigger punches and was more aggressive, making it 39-36 for Mayweather.

ROUND FIVE - HBO's Harold Lederman and I diverge in our scores, which I think is good. Marquez trying to make something happen...which means he is the more aggressive fighter and it seems like Mayweather is a bit more cautious. Steward says that Marquez will be worn down by the speed. Marquez doesn't look it at the halfway point. It's Marquez' round so far and Lampley intoning that Marquez needs to be heavier, even as he is winning the round. As usual, Lampley is calling a fight based on what happened in the previous round. Marquez still winning at rounds' close. Marquez' round: 48-46 Mayweather.

ROUND SIX - "attack but don't be frontal" is Marquez' trainer's instruction...and that makes sense, though I imagine it suffers in translation. Mayweather opens seeming to try to go to the body and Marquez counters very effectively. At the forty five second mark, Marquez still the better fighter and Steward uses it as an opportunity to say Mayweather is dominating? Oh...Marquez rocked and the round turns to Mayweather. Marquez doesn't look as hurt as I would expect. Kellerman says Mayweather is "having his way" and I don't see that. Mayweather is doing better in this round, though. Pins Marquez in the corner and takes shots, always with his leaning back and potshotting. Mayweather extends to 58-55.

ROUND SEVEN - Lampley says it's a "complete domination" and I simply don't agree. The HBO team feeds on each other and they tend to sway badly at times. Lederman has every round for Mayweather. Lampley says no round has been close! Good grief. If it's true that the ref went to Marquez' corner to ask if he wants to continue then perhaps the fight looks a lot different live than on TV. Or my perception is off based on my prediction. Marquez pins Mayweather in the corner and Marquez doesn't attack after a good flurry. Kellerman describing it as an "absolute shutout", but that's ridiculous. This was a Mayweather round though...68 - 64.

ROUND EIGHT - Mayweather is jabbing and hitting Marquez relatvely easily, but the punches are not that special. Neither fighter is doing much at the halfway point. Typically, Mayweather is not pressing his advantage. This round edging to Mayweather because Marquez isn't landing much and isn't active enough. Marquez brings some leather in the last 20 seconds of the round, mostly ineffectively...and then Mayweather invites him in repeatedly, taking shots all around his head and body...and losing the round on my card. 77 - 74.

ROUND NINE - The HBO team is spending the fight describing all the reasons that Marquez is completely out of the fight and it's strange. A minute in, it's an even round. Mayweather landing more effectively in the second minute. It's just a jabbing contest and Mayweather must win that contest. Mayweather lands a big combo at the thirty second mark and Marquez tries to answer, but Mayweather seems to be controlling the action. He's advancing. Lampley says "all the steam is out of Marquez' punches...if it was ever there...", which is a typical overstatement. But it's Mayweather's round: 87 - 83.

ROUND TEN - Steward seems to think that Marquez is shot and he'll be lucky to survive. I admit that Mayweather looks stronger and Marquez is right there for the jab...but I don't see Marquez fading. He's trying. Steward says "he's going to try to get him out of there this round"...that seems another stretch. Marquez not landing and Mayweather boringly winning. Some clean punches landing for Mayweather. The fight is definitely tilting heavily for Mayweather. Mayweather dances in the corner at the round's conclusion. 97-92 for Mayweather.

ROUND ELEVEN - Marquez doing better this rounds first minute as he stops moving backward, but Mayweather is still getting the better of it. He boringly moves forward and is hitting Marquez more steadily and clearly. Mayweather lands cleanly and with twenty seconds left and Kellerman says he's "clearly pressing for the knockout", though Marquez doesn't look hurt. If that's pressing for the KO, then Mayweather is no finisher. Also, the sky is blue. Mayweather's round: 107-101.

ROUND TWELVE - Some of these rounds don't need much explication because they look alike. Mayweather stutterstepping forward leaning back and jabbing and Marquez is fighting a fight of attrition, showing effort, but not able to land. Marquez bounces punches off the arms and Mayweather jabs and leans away. Boring...but effective. At the halfway mark, Mayweather holds Marquez' head down coming out of a clinch and the HBO team says he's pressing for the KO again...but Marquez doesn't look close to me...but pretty outmatched. Mayweather doesn't look marked and Marquez looks bloodied. With twenty seconds left, Mayweather finally throwing with bad intentions? what a fighter...who dances the fight to a close. His round again, making my final tally 117 - 110.

WRAP UP: Okay, so maybe Pacman has made me think anything is possible. Now I want to see Pacquiao against Mayweather all the more. This makes me wonder if Mayweather might just have his way with Pacman! Wow...what a reversal from what I was thinking coming in. I bought the hype. There's no question that I was completely wrong in my prediction, so I am not backing off of it but I tend to think that several factors played into my misjudging the matchup (apart from the Pacman effect): there hasn't been a big fight in months...and I so wanted this fight to live up that I invented drama; I watched Mayweather/Marquez 24/7 and that has nver served me well; I forgot my reaction at the time of the announcement of the fight (proof positive for me that I really wanted this fight to be good) - that it would be a bore. A bore it was...two counterpunchers measuring each other for twelve rounds. Marquez put up a good effort and was unquestionably outmatched.

Mayweather handpicked his opponent well. But that denegrates Mayweather's performance unfairly because everything I said about Marquez coming in remains true. He is a hall of fame caliber opponent, heretofor ranked #2 P4P in the world. The final scores of the judges: 118-109; 120 -107; 119-108. Now...to the denigating of the performance. How much did those two pounds matter? Marquez made a special effort to talk to the HBO team post-fight, apparently to say that: 1) he wished he'd fought two or three fights at this weight and if he had, he would have acquitted himself better; 2) the weight made all the difference. Now...to be fair...the HBO team seemed convinced at ringside that Mayweather was so much faster, notwithstanding the weight difference, that Marquez had no chance. Interesting. I wonder if those last two pounds would have sapped Mayweather enough down the stretch to make a difference? We'll never know. If the Pacman/Money fight is ever made, you can bet that Pacquiao won't allow Mayweather to blow off the contract weight though....

It was amusing to see Mosley and Hopkins call Mayweather out and Mayweather duck the questions about his refusal to come in at the contracted weight. He refuses to fight or otherwise engage on any terms but his own...but in a way, you have to respect that. And in a more significant way, as a realfightfan...you don't. As a further pertinent aside, to see Max Kellerman kick it back to Jim Lampley rather than allow Mayweather to hold forth unbridled (and then Kellerman's almost immediate explication of that decision) is to ironically see Max's ego be tested and found wanting (exactly what he essentially accused Mayweather of). Once Mayweather said Max "talks too much" and tried to take his mic, Kellerman kicked it back to Lampley...silencing an affronted Mayweather and depriving the viewers of listening to this talented blowhard answer the challenges that had just been posed by Mosley and Hopkins (for Golden Boy). Perhaps he was going to continue to filibuster without addressing anything the fans want to hear...but I would have preferred to hear it and I doubt I'm alone. A pretty glaring mistake by Kellerman, whose assertion that he is baffled by Mayweather's persecution complex relative to him because he maintains, among the media at-large, a more "friendly" attitude toward Mayweather because he "admires his craft" is after-the-fact damage control.

They say Bob Arum, who promotes Pacquiao, has said that Mayweather v. Pacquiao will never take place. If that's true...then that's a shame. Maybe that plays right into Mayweather's hands, who apparently never takes a fight he can't win. Or does he simply never lose? If he wants to erase all lingering doubts, he ought to bend over backwards to make that fight. Especially since he just dominated the guy who gave Pacman fits in two fights.

Marquez v. Mayweather: a P4P prediction

2009-09-19T21:06:00.003-04:00

Here's the real question for this fight: why would Mayweather choose Juan Manuel Marquez for his inevitable coming-out-of-fake-retirement fight? He claims he doesn't watch tapes of fighters he faces, but there's no way he hasn't watched Marquez fight Pacquiao twice. No way. So...what is he seeing that we're not seeing? I say that because not only is Marquez no walk in the park, he's one of the most experienced elite level fighters of his generation. He's been in as deep as anyone possibly can be and to say he's acquitted himself admirably is distinct understatement.

Let's look at the short list that leaps to mind: starting with Pacquiao - I recall him, to my mind, unquestionably outboxing Pacquiao for the remainder of the fight...after having been dropped three times in the first round - he adjusted so effectively even after being dropped over and over that he deserved the win, but Pacquiao eked out the draw. As for the other fight with Pacquiao, I thought it legitimately went to Pacquiao but it was close and it went to the cards (please keep in mind that neither Oscar, nor Hatton made it close to going the distance with Pacquiao...something Marquez has done twice); Casamayor - the slippery undefeated veteran Cuban had never been knocked down, let alone knocked out when Marquez dispatched him, taking his title and relegating him to where he belongs...on the scrap heap of exposed champions who would rather dance, slip, foul and hold than engage...something no one else had ever done; Juan Diaz - Marquez KO'd another fighter who'd never been dropped in Diaz, a fighter who Nate Campbell had fought the fight of his life to beat and take Diaz' zero away.

So...why would Mayweather fight a guy this good? After taking off two years? Well, the answer may lie in the size difference. Mayweather proves he hits pretty hard against the likes of bigger fighters like Oscar. He'll have a reach advantage. He's proved he can solve tough styles like Hatton's (though since Hatton was dispatched so summarily by Pacquiao, the luster is off that accomplishment too).

The answer may lie in the styles. Marquez is well known as a counterpuncher...and counterpunching is Mayweather's specialty. Perhaps he's convinced he will be able to beat Marquez to the punch and that Marquez will lay back waiting for opportunities that Mayweather thinks he'll never be given.

Perhaps it's Marquez' age. At 36, he's aging for a fighter who relies on the quickness of his counterpunching...and perhaps the younger Mayweather is convinced he will be able to outmuscle and outspeed Marquez.

Here's the counterargument that says that Marquez pulls off the upset:

-it starts with the proposition that Mayweather barely squeaked by Oscar - I called that fight for Oscar on effective aggressiveness and ring generalship and though a re-viewing had me questioning my own call as biased, it was that close - so, although Marquez never fought Oscar, Pacquiao's alarming destruction of Oscar based on handspeed and positioning where Marquez has twice given Pacquiao almost more than he could handle...the edge goes to Marquez;

-the next point is subsumed above - Pacquiao proved that, relatively speaking at these weights, size may simply not matter as much as we all think it should. So...is Marquez as fast and as good as Pacquiao? As Golden Boy's Richard Schaeffer pointed out to Marquez himself, over two fights the official scorecards of 24 rounds favored Pacquiao by one point. One point. The answer must be yes...and while we can in no way take away Pacquiao's three knockdowns that started the draw between the two...absent those points, Marquez weighs out with more points...and importantly, surely actually has more rounds on paper than Pacquiao because of the effect of that one lopsided round. Again...advantage Marquez;

-Marquez has been in deep and proven he will and skills over and over. If there is excess mileage as a result, he's not shown it. Meanwhile, Mayweather looked so relieved to have taken the decision from Oscar in the moments after that win that it was easy to intuit that he was by no means sure he'd won. It took him nine rounds to KO Hatton and while, at the time, taking Hatton's zero looked like a career-defining moment...Pacquiao's humiliation of the popular Brit seemed to put it in perspective, particularly as compared to Pac's dealings with Mr. Marquez. Advantage: Marquez.

-finally...ring rust. While there's little question that Mayweather appears in top shape, that he's bloodying his sparring partners on 24/7 and that he's a world-class boxing technician with an elite level ring IQ...he hasn't been in as deep nearly as often as Marquez...and hasn't in truth been in particularly deep in years. An aging Oscar? A since-exposed Hatton? These were megafights for certain, but they were arguably not against super-elite fighters. OK, so his fight against Oscar might have been Oscar's last great showing...but recall that Oscar had already been taken the distance by an overmatched Stevie Forbes, KO'd by Hopkins and beaten by in his prep fight for Hopkins...only to walk with a uber-questionable decision. By then, Oscar was a millionaire so many times over that he was fighting to find the motivation that clearly eludes him today. Meanwhile, Marquez has been toiling against the best fighters in the world regulary in the last few years...and arguably winning winning every time.

The prediction? My brain says Mayweather wouldn't take this fight if he wasn't certain he could decision Marquez. However...I think he is underestimating the man. They've weighed in at 146 and 142 respectively and this, though the fight was originally contracted for 144. That says to me that Mayweather didn't feel he could comfortably make weight...so he changed the rules in the run up to the fight, upping the contract weight to 147 rather than risk being depleted by the two pound difference. That is the action of a fighter who is concerned about the last two pounds, is strong-arming his opponent just because he can and is taking his opponent lightly. He wants those last two pounds and is coming into the ring thinking those two pounds matter. Pacquiao proved they don't...and I think Marquez will prove they don't. Mayweather, in my judgment, plans on coming in and being aggressive to back Marquez off, then cruising to a decision victory. He underestimates Marquez' skills, speed, power and commitment. Marquez in a four point decision.

Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz v. Paulie "Magic Man" Malignaggi

2009-08-22T23:51:00.002-04:00

Well, folks...the undercard fights went the full distance and it's coming on midnight and I may as well type as I watch. My opinion of the fight is no different after watching HBO's Max Kellerman allow Malignaggi lay the groundwork for his post-fight objections. The Magic Man talked about the small ring, that he agreed to a lower than usual weight at weigh-in (138 1/2 lb.), that he'd been promised neutral judging and that the deck was stacked against him. Indeed, as I typed that line, HBO's Harold Lederman described that fully three of the four "referees" (presumably meaning two of the three judges and the ring ref) are from the Houston area. It's no secret that Baby Bull is a Houston native, much beloved and something of a minor industry there.

As Malignaggi does his ringwalk to AC/DC's "thunderstruck" in a tribute to Arturo Gatti, I can't help but wonder why Diaz' people went to all the effort to stack the deck as described considering that he is, in my opinion at least, a prohibitive favorite. Frankly, I tend to agree that it's a somewhat rigged fight considering that I too saw Houston's Rocky Juarez lose soundly to Chris John, only to be awarded a draw. Two of those judges are scoring this fight, as Malignaggi pointed out. As Kellerman points out, with these advantages "Diaz better win this fight...". If Malignaggi is indeed as drained as Kellerman says he looked after straining to make the lowered contract weight, then it could be an early night for him.

ROUND ONE - Malignaggi comes out firing and Diaz can't get off in the first thirty seconds. Malignaggi definitely getting the better of the first minute and Diaz not throwing...yet. Malignaggi not likely to keep up this pace. He's got a ten cent head and if he builds a lead, he's just as likely to squander it. I predict a classic case of finding something that works...and abandoning it. Malignaggi definitely doesn't have the juice, if Kellerman is to be believed, to keep up this pace. We will see. With the round coming to a close, Malignaggi still getting the better of it. Clearly faster and throwing more. 10-9 Malignaggi.

ROUND TWO - Malignaggi still up at start...Diaz flurries at the thirty second mark and gets back in the fight. The crowd is so badly biased that they cheer everything Diaz does...and until then had been silent. Malignaggi sticks his tongue out...but Malignaggi is cut over his left eye. Diaz starting to catch Malignaggi. Diaz is more effective with a minute left and on clean punches, it's Diaz' round. Malignaggi eating clean hooks. HBO announces Diaz is cut. Round for Diaz to go to 19-19.

ROUND THREE - When Diaz lands, he turns Malignaggi's head and Malignaggi's punches don't seem to have that effect. HBO's Kellerman says Malignaggi is landing some heavy leather, but I don't see it. Still pretty even at the halfway piont. I don't want to let the crowd's roars influence the way I'm seeing the fight either. Crowd boos Paulie moving away. Rough round, but I give it to Malignaggi...but I bet weighted judging goes the other way. 29-28 for Malignaggi.

ROUND FOUR - I match Lederman's card, which is never good news. Thirty seconds in, I see Diaz hammer Malignaggi. Kellerman discussing the disparity in crowd reaction. Malignaggi may have been wobbled. Hard to tell. He stumbled at the 1:45 mark rather badly, but otherwise shows no effect. Malignaggi moving and sticking, but Diaz' shots look better. Malignaggi can't back off Diaz predictably and Diaz can't wade in because Malignaggi is moving. A very close round, but I give it to Diaz...so it's back even at 38-38.

ROUND FIVE - Malignaggi sticking and jabbing very effectively a minute in. Diaz can't get set to punch and has to follow follow follow...finally at the halfway point, Diaz gets a chance because Malignaggi stops moving side to side and away. The crowd reaction is disproportionately pro-Diaz and it skews everything. One wonders with all the disadvantages, notwithstanding the judging, why Malignaggi took this fight at the contract wieght he did in Diaz' notorious backyard. I guess he too realizes that he's very much the underdog. I give the round to Malignaggi 48-47.

ROUND SIX - They are claiming that a second cut on Diaz left eye was caused by a "headbutt" though Diaz' corner seems to think it was an elbow. It's a bad cut. Diaz is fighting predictably with a little more urgency. Diaz moving his hands more, but only can do it because Malignaggi has stopped moving. What a mistake for Malignaggi. At the one minute mark, it' still pretty even, maybe leaning Diaz' way. Malignaggi starts to move again and spends the last minute circling to his left...and HBO notes that Malignaggi might be better served by trying to move right and work that eye. I give the round to Diaz, moving it even again to 57-57.

ROUND SEVEN - My card still apparently matches Lederman. Greeeat. Malignaggi told by his corner to box and not fight. The perfect instruction as pointed out by Kellerman, but Malignaggi isn't doing it. He's fighting. He's stopping and standing in front of Diaz. It's Diaz' round with a minute left because Malignaggi is circling, but not throwing. He's just moving in the last minute and not throwing out an effective punch. Diaz pursuing pursuing and landing here and there. This may be where Malignaggi is showing the wear of making weight. Makes sense. Diaz takes that round: 67-66 Diaz.

ROUND EIGHT - Malignaggi's corner sends him out telling him to "dance". I doubt he has the legs. Thirty seconds in, he looks okay, but Diaz looks a bit fresher. Neither fighter making a dent at the one minute mark. One guy dancing, the other guy pursuing. To Malignaggi's credit, I now see why Diaz' people stacked the deck: Malignaggi is clearly faster. Noticeably faster. Oh good grief...Bob Papa notices that Malignaggi is losing his trunks. This is the same knucklehead who wore hair extensions in his runup fight to Hatton and had to have a literal hearcut between rounds. Neither fighter deserved that round, but since Diaz didn't land a thing that I saw, I'll give it to Malignaggi. Diaz just followed ineffectively all round. Back to even at 76-76.

ROUND NINE - Finally, my card diverges from Lederman as he gave that last round to Diaz. Frankly, it was a toss up. Malignaggi lands effectively at one minute in. Diaz counters with a landed combination ten seconds later. Even halfway through. Malignaggi not effective and moving but not scoring. Diaz trying to cut off the ring and landing a bit, but Malignaggi is slippery but not really landing either. Another chased and chasing round. Give it to Diaz, making it 86-85 for Diaz.

ROUND TEN - Now Lederman has is 86-85 for Malignaggi...odd. I find it hard to like Malignaggi's failure to be effective even as he dances away. It's a fight for fifteen seconds at one minute in and Malignaggi gets the better of it. Now he's on his horse again. As Kellerman says, the "classic pure boxer against the classic pure pressure fighter." That's absolutely right. I see Malignaggi looks better right now...and actually trying to say something to the HBO crew. It seemed to be something like "I've got this...." At that point, he did. He has more left than I thought he would and Diaz has been less effective than I thought he would be because Malignaggi is clearly quicker and faster. Malignaggi takes that round, to make it even again at 95-95.

ROUND ELEVEN - Kellerman says Malignaggi still looks "lightning fast" and while he hasn't always looked that way in this fight, he does look good now. I would have expected the pressure to wear him out and it hasn't because Diaz can't land effectively. Malignaggi quick and fast enough to get away. Malignaggi shook his right hand the way he does when he's hurt it. Is he throwing it? Diaz basically not effective at all. Malignaggi is sticking and moving and while it isn't that effective, he's more effective than Diaz who is spending the whole fight chasing and almost all of it missing. Malignaggi's round and he takes the lead 105 - 104.

ROUND TWELVE - If this round goes as expected, we will see how much the Diaz pre-rigging worked because I think Diaz loses this fight. Diaz doesn't have the power to end it on one punch and Malignaggi all too likely to close the show. Will Diaz look desperate? Diaz buzzes Malignaggi and Malignaggi unfazed. Malignaggi stupidly standing in front of him. Diaz goes too low, but Malignaggi unfazed. Diaz' round at the halfway mark because Malignaggi stopped running. Now Malignaggi dancing a bit, but he doesn't seem to be landing. HBO's Lennox Lewis says Malignaggi looking "really good", but I don't agree. Diaz winning the round with thirty seconds to go. Malignaggi NOT closing the show. Close round goes for Diaz, making it a draw on my card 114 - 114.

116 - 112
115 - 113
118 -110

Unanimous for Diaz. Whoever "Gail Van Hoye" is, she ("he" according to HBO) should be removed as a judge because that's a ridiculous scorecard for this fight. Lederman gave it 115 - 113 to Malignaggi and it was unquestionably a close fight. While I can't say Malignaggi was robbed because it was so close in almost every round that many could go both ways, there is no way that any reasonable judge could have seen it at 118 - 110.

Wow...I forgot that Diaz is a Golden Boy fighter. There's Oscar right there in the background sticking his face into frame like a good promoter. Malignaggi is WAY outspoken in the post-fight interview, calling boxing "bullshit" and making clear that while he called Houston "a great fight town", there was no way he could win. Interestingly, basically ALL of what he said was absolutely true: Diaz is a "true warrior" but Malignaggi had no chance of getting anything but hometowned; that Diaz now has the luxury of calling out a Marquez for a rematch (which he did), but Malignaggi is relegated to opponent status; that boxing is essentially corrupt. He also asked Kellerman how HBO had scored the fight and Kellerman responded "close...7 rounds to 5" and Malignaggi had to force him to admit that Lederman had scored it for him. Paulie also had it right that he and Diaz played to their strengths as the aggressor and the boxer in the closing rounds and he thought he got the better of it. In seeming response (but not to Malignaggi's face) Kellerman climbed out of the ring and made a fair closing point, too...that the "marketplace spoke" in that Diaz is a bigger draw in his hometown because of his exciting style and contrastingly, Malignaggi's style has not allowed him to cultivate that type of following. Hence, Diaz gets hometown fights and hometown decisions.

This one was a lot closer than I thought it would be, frankly. And now I see why Golden Boy pulled out all the stops rigging this thing. They knew Malignaggi was quicker and faster. They made a contract weight a pound and a half under the limit to sap Malignaggi's strength. They contracted for a small ring. They filled the panel with friendly local Texas judges. All to tilt the playing field for their slower, more aggressive fighter.

Paulie...this is boxing...what did you expect?

Baby Bull or Magic Man?

2009-08-22T21:41:00.002-04:00

We are just moments from the beginning of a telecast on HBO of a fight that will mark the end of one of the two marquee fighters' career as any part of a discussion of the current elite of their division. With Paulie "Magic Man" Malignaggi having been stopped by Ricky "The Splitman" Hatton and Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz having been stopped by Juan Manuel Marquez, each of these guys has now lost the most recent of their two respective biggest fights on the biggest stages. While both are still pretty young (though Diaz is chronologically younger, because he leads with his face, he might be older in fighter years), fans are going to stop thinking of one or the other of them as a real contender, based on tonight's fight. The one will remain in the mix with his fans figuring that on his best night he can stand in with anyone in the division and the other will become a gatekeeper fighter, probably relegated to filling out an undercard and perpetually trying to claw his way back to marquee status.

The one will be Diaz and the other will be Malignaggi, there is little doubt. While Malignaggi is no less a warrior at heart than Diaz, his style is all wrong for Diaz and he will surely get the worst of this matchup. At his best, he is a dancing jabber who picks his spots. That he is also a light puncher for the elite level of the division seals his fate because Diaz has shown (as has Paulie, to his credit) that he is able and willing to absorb punishment to achieve his aims. Unfortunately for the Magic Man, Diaz dishes out a LOT more punishment than does Malignaggi because he punches at probably twice the output. While Diaz is not particularly heavyhanded either, the accumulation of damage is his calling card and he is a workrate fighter who is as committed and skilled at his particular style as any. Until he got caught once too often by Marquez, he was both deep into and right in that fight on my card and as anyone knows, Marquez is unquestionably among the best fighters in the world, irrespective of division.

If the fight turns out to be worth reporting on, I will post again, but the outcome seems pretty well assured: Diaz by TKO in the 10th. Malignaggi is a tough guy and he may last the distance now that he has ejected Buddy "I protect my fighters by humiliating them" McGirt from his corner, but the outcome is pre-determined as far as I'm concerned.

Thanks ESPN Classic for airing the world heavyweight championship!

2009-06-20T23:52:00.006-04:00

Okay, so it was a thoroughly predictable thrashing. Even the TKO would have been easy to call, though I think I would have called it as an eighth or ninth round KO by sheer attrition. The most undramatic ascension to the current version of the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world (the Ring version) took place on Saturday and U.S. fightfans hardly cared or noticed. Even this realfightfan had to find it on fight day to Tivo it and was surprised to find it being shown on ESPN Classic.

I thought B.J. Flores did a decent job as the color man for the bout and was better than his accompaniment who seemed a bit of the master of the obvious. B.J.'s pointing out of the foot position problems that Chagaev was failing to overcome was as interesting as his cohort's seemingly disconnected injection of Chagaev's testing positive for hepatitis B seemed contrived and out of context. B.J. didn't bite and it made it seem awkward.

Did I mention that this fight took place in Germany before 60,000 live fans in a soccer stadium or that it was between Ring #1 heavyweight Wladimir Klitschko and Ring #3 Ruslan Chagaev? Setting aside that Chagaev was a last minute (about three weeks before fight night) replacement for David Haye, Chagaev brought a very arguably better set of credentials to fight for the title. Indeed, his involvement allowed the Ring Heavyweight Championship to be awarded for the first time since 2004. I should again give props to ESPN for prominently featuring this fact and repeatedly mentioning that the Ring Heavyweight Championship was on the line. Under the Ring rules, the Championship belt can only be awarded when the champion or #1 and #2 or in limited circumstances #3 Ring contenders fight.

This fight clearly qualified if for no other reason than that the #2 ranked contender is Wladimir's brother Vitali. No one who appreciates the sweet science really wants to see that anyway, in my opinion. After all, this isn't tennis, where the Williams sisters can fret publicly and privately about their rivalry, the press can play it up, they compete in a finals and then have dinner afterward. Our sport is a brutal expression of domination. Put simply, the Williams sisters don't have to punch each other in the face over and over until one of them collapses to collect their paycheck. The Klitschko brothers say they never will and I for one have no desire to see it. In our beloved sport, we deal with all the hypothetical matchups that history has to offer, so one more such matchup among contemporary brothers shouldn't bother anyone.

As to the fight, well Ruslan never stood a chance. He was able to bob and weave his way inside against the man mountain Valuev evidently, but never had a chance against the "robotic" Klitschko. Well...it's hard to blame Wladimir for playing the robot if the robot kicks your ass. And the robot thoroughly kicked Ruslan Chagaev's ass. "Dr. Steelhammer" pumped the left jab all night, following up with a straight right hand and simply punished Chagaev over and over. Chagaev was cut midway through the fight over his left eye and while that tacitly acted as the basis of the TKO stoppage, that wasn't it. It was the punishment Chagaev was enduring and while the doctor was checking out his eye, Chagaev's trainer leaned over and whispered in his fighter's ear. It must've been "you've had enough, I'm putting a stop to this."

That was a good call. It was no context and Chagaev had no answers. His olympic pedigree, undefeated record coming in and alphabet championship belt couldn't get him past that left jab. I agree with B.J. that it's a mystery why Chagaev didn't try to move to his right to escape the big right hand, to set up his own left hook and maybe punish Klitschko's body under his left arm to bring that jab down. Easy for me to say, perhaps...but it looked like he didn't even try. Maybe it would have made no difference at all, but it seemed a sounder strategy than the one that made him a punching bag for nine rounds until he retired on his stool rather than come out for the tenth. I didn't score it, but didn't have to. Every round for Klitschko with the second round being 10-8 for Klitschko's knockdown of Chagaev on a flush straight right.

So where does the heavyweight division go from here? Well, I agree that the Klitschko v. Haye fight is interesting, but I think Haye stands little chance. He is chinny and very likely to get KO'd. He brings a punch, even a heavyweight punch...but Klitschko today is not the Wladimir of yesterday. He hasn't seemed as easy to rattle. He rose three times against Peter to win by decision and has kept learning what Steward has been teaching him: be willing to win on points; don't take chances; go with what works; avoid your weaknesses; don't try to please critics. That is the Lennox Lewis blueprint and as criticized as he was for his lack of aggression and killer instinct in his career, he is now lionized as the last great heavyweight champion.

It's picky to write this when I'm pleased that ESPN broadcast the fight at all, considering what must have been a cast off by HBO once Haye withdrew...but their running of the scoreboard crawl below the fight during the broadcast was a poor decision. It was distracting, annoying and it interfered with my enjoyment of the fight. I love ESPN, appreciate their commitment to the fight game and again...that they broadcast this fight (even if they didn't send the first string...apologies again to B.J. who did a good job, especially for an active fighter!), but next time guys...lose the crawl.

I'm looking forward to seeing what Chris Arreola can do against Wladimir. Can he do more? I don't know, but I bet he was watching this fight and going , "why isn't he working to bring that jab down????look at where his front foot is??? why is he not circling right??? Shoooot...this guy can be beat!!!" Can he? I don't know. For all his robotics, Wladimir Klitschko looks like a pretty tough model.

Is Manny Pacquiao Superman?

2009-05-04T21:10:00.002-04:00

Yes. Manny Pacquiao is Superman. I called this fight for Hatton for all sorts of logical reasons, but I didn't count on Hatton being unable to see the punches coming. As all of us who watched the fight know, this wasn't because of some trickery like hiding power shots behind jabs or punching from angles. Manny wasn't even coming punching unconventionally. His punches were just so fast that Ricky Hatton didn't see them coming. And they were bombs, every one. Manny was reset so fast and throwing so hard and fast over and over that it was a super fast, witheringly accurate attack. Hatton had no chance.

This wasn't even competitive. Ricky Hatton had convinced himself that he would be able to bully Pacquiao and like Freddy Roach candidly said, Hatton can't adjust. Indeed, after a first round in which Hatton was dropped twice, he stepped up the aggressiveness that had put him so squarely in harm's way. Folly.

And I think the question is answered once and for all whether the Pac man is bringing his punch up with him. This was no overtrained Oscar, this was a natural 140 pounder in Hatton who'd only ever tasted canvas once before. Hatton was prepared. He came well-trained and with a game plan. Hatton got blown out. I wonder whether Pacquiao just retired him. Heck, he just retired Oscar! Hatton got a guaranteed $12M if the HBO commentators are to be believed, so where is his motivation. He's now sure that he's not the best in his division. Gone is his Ring belt and any illusion that he'd just taken a step up too far for Mayweather. I bet he retires...and he probably should. I suspect he's been shattered by this as a fighter. He seemed fragile enough after losing to Mayweather. It was a good run, Ricky. Hang'em up, son.

So the obvious question becomes, once Mayweather decisions Juan Manuel Marquez, will he fight Manny Pacquiao? For the first time since he retired, I think every realfightfan around thinks the pound-for-pound title is rightly occupied by his successor. Manny Pacquiao has proved not only that he belongs at the top of the P4P list, but that he deserves to stay there even though Floyd, Jr. has unretired. Like any realfightfan, I can't wait for that fight. I'm sure that Mr. Marquez has different plans, but I don't think that's going to make any difference. The next superfight is all but set...if Mayweather doesn't duck it. But this time, I don't think he can. Maybe...just maybe...he doesn't want to.

Pacquiao v. Hatton prediction and Showtime fights

2009-04-25T22:34:00.003-04:00

I've now just consecutively watched the middle two episodes of the four part series 24/7 Pacquiao/Hatton. I'm tempted by the depiction to say that Hatton looks like his camp is more grueling and that Pacquiao trainer Freddy Roach looks significantly slowed by Parkinson's, but I wonder if that is the way that the filmmakers want me to see it. I'm really interested in this fight because I do think that Hatton has largely bounced back from his loss to Mayweather, which was a huge blow to Hatton's sense of himself as a fighter. I'm not certain he's 100% back and much will depend on that.

Are Pacquiao's hands otherworldly fast? no. They just looked that way against an overtrained and underweight Oscar DelaHoya. Pacquiao has been in wars with equally fast-handed fighters in lighter weight classes and while he's come out on top in most of those fights, he's been tested. He's definitely improved under Roach's tutelage and become a more complete fighter, throwing in combination and using angles, but he may have peaked and bitten off more than he can chew at this weight. Hatton on the other hand is at his natural weight and is a fast-handed bullying roughhouser. There's method to his madness, but if he allows Pacquiao separation (or more to the point, if he cannot prevent Pacquiao getting separation), it's going to be a long night for the Hatton camp.

I don't see Pacquiao having a significant handspeed advantage so the question will be whether Hatton has the will to step inside those windmills for eight to ten rounds to do the damage inside that he needs to do to wear Pacquiao down. He's going to absorb a lot of punishment while doing it and he may simply not have the stomach for it anymore. He has long been known as a guy who balloons up in weight between fights and now he's rich to boot. He certainly looks like he's ready to fight and surely has picked up a few tricks from Floyd, Sr., but he'll revert to his old self in the ring.

So...as the worn-out adage goes, styles make fights. I can't recall Manny having to fight a style like Ricky's before at this level and I think it will smother and frustrate him. Manny does not have the patient disposition of Mayweather, nor the countering skills or reach advantage. I'm going against the conventional wisdon and taking Hatton by 11th round TKO.

On to a different subject, I'm watching Allan Green in a twelve rounder, I'm curious to see if he can bounce back after his health problems and devastating KO loss to Edison Miranda. In with Carlos DeLoeon, Jr., he is stepping up after putting together four straight wins after that KO. I picked him as a real comer in the super middleweight division, but one wonders if he can overcome the removal of 85% of his colon. While watching it as I type, Green KOs DeLeon in the second round. Devastating knockout with four knockdowns before the stoppage. Nice to see Allan back. He says he wants to step into the deep end of the pool. Looks like he's ready.

WBC supermiddleweight belt on the line on showtime. Carl Froch is an undefeated Brit super middleweight going in against Jermaine Taylor. Jermaine routinely fights to the level of his opponents and has a bum rap as a fighter who's failed to fulfill his potential, but frankly he's still a world class fighter in my opinion. I'm a realfightfan and I've hardly heard of this hothouse flower Froch and while once in a blue moon, these fighters have been toiling in anonymity and are truly great (see Joe Calzaghe), he's unquestionably not been in with the type of competition that Taylor's been in with for years. Froch is stepping way up and Taylor always comes prepared. I see Taylor feeling him out for a few rounds and ending it in the seventh once he gets his rhythm and starts to punish Froch. Now I'll watch the fight and see if I'm right.

Round One. They say Froch has a "granite chin", but he better because he's eating a lot of leather. Froch leaves his lead hand hanging. If he is tough, he's going to take a beating at this rate.Taylor clearly faster and seems to know it. Taylor punching in combination. Froch hanging in, but Taylor clearly takes round one 10-9

Round Two. Froch starts better and Taylor not as aggressive. Even round halfway through. Froch lands and because Taylor is not countering aggressively, Froch looks much better. Froch for the first time is coming forward. Taylor looks less disciplined. Taylor tries to steal the round at the end, but it's Froch's round, 19-19.

Round Three. It's starting to look ugly as they mash together and smash heads. both are tentative. I think Froch got Taylor's attention and now Taylor is pacing himself. If he's not careful, he'll pace himself right out of the fight. Froch landing better, but Taylor lands very clean and hard. That seems to turn the round for Taylor with a minute left and Froch is hurt. Definitely hurt. Froch down! for an eight count. 27 seconds for round to survive. Taylor not finishing Froch. Round ends with Froch on his feet. 10-8 round for Taylor, making it 29-27 for Taylor.

Round Four. Taylor is not wading in and that emboldens Froch, who advances punching wildly. Taylor throwing big punches and trying to end it with one punch. Taylor seems to think he sees something, I think. He's catching Froch coming in. With a minute left, it's looking a little ugly and that is to Forch's advantage. Froch doesn't seem to be the worse for wear. Close round and I give it to Taylor for landing jabs because Froch doesn't land much at all. 39-36 favoring Taylor.

Round Five. Taylor throws a nice combination forty seconds in. This fight reminds me of just how much of a counterpuncher Taylor is. They say Taylor looks loose, but he never looks loose to me. I think that's why he tires. He's always a coiled spring. Pretty even round with forty seconds to go. Taylor goes to the body and lands hard. Froch throwing but not landing. They keep throwing even after the bell. Close round, but goes to Taylor because while Froch is throwing, not much is effective. 49-45 in favor of Taylor.

Round Six. Froch re-dedicated and landing, but still taking punishment. Both fighters land big clean shots and neither looks affected. Froch is ahead with a minute to go. Taylor still fighting back and landing. Tough round to score because Taylor came on at the end, but I'll give it to Froch because he landed a couple of stunningly clean shots. To Taylor's credit, he walked through them. Taylor still ahead 58-55.

Round Seven. The commentators say that Taylor tends to fade and that's true. Is he fading now? not appreciably, but he is throwing a little less frequently and being a little less aggressive, trying to time Froch coming in. He's waiting this round and he's eating punches for his trouble. Maybe he's waiting for Froch to give him a big opening. Pretty even with a minute to go as Froch slows a bit later in the round. Another very close round. I give it to Taylor but it could go either way. Taylor up by a score of 68-64.

Round Eight. Froch tends to jump in and Al Bernstein seems to think Froch is hurting Taylor. Taylor bouncing on his toes, as if to show that he is not hurt. Froch clearly ahead with a half round to go. Taylor not as busy and he looks defensive. Froch advancing and stalking Taylor. Taylor is allowing Froch to jump in and at the end of the round, in the closing twenty seconds Taylor stuns Froch, hitting him with an uppercut and a clubbing cross to cause Froch to almost stumble returning to his corner. Boyoboy that's tough to score, but I give it to Froch because he was dominating the round until the final twenty seconds. Taylor still up, narrowed to 77-75.

Round Nine. Both men take the first minute off and Bernstein probably correctly speculates that it's because Taylor is pacing himself and Froch doesn't want to make a mistake. Froch just crossing with the right hand and stepping in without defense and it's all whether Taylor can take advantage. Taylor clearly has the advantage is speed. Taylor dances away and Taylor doing the better tapdancing work. With twenty seconds left, Taylor had slight edge and he takes it into the round's end. Another for Taylor, moving it to 87-84.

Round Ten. Froch walks in and starts the round well, but still it's all wading in without defense. Taylor seems too gassed to counter. Froch unloading and Taylor not really answering. Halfway through, Froch is winning the round easily. With a minte left, Taylor throws with bad intentions in an angry combination, but does little else. Taylor comes on a bit late, but it's not enough. Round to Froch leaves Taylor up by a score of 96-94.

Round Eleven. Froch more aggressive and Taylor is fading again. Taylor not punching enough, it's that simple. Froch is back in this fight because these are teh most important rounds and Taylor is holding on, but just then Taylor comes on and Froch seems unaffected but very exciting last minute. Both guys throwing haymakers and Taylor getting the better of it, surprisingly. Though he started very slowly, Froch did not do enough to carry a big enough lead into the halfway mark to overcome the late surge by Taylor. Taylor takes the round and goes up 106-103 on my card.

Round Twelve. Taylor lands better in the first minute. Froch puts Taylor in trouble! Taylor barely able to stand up. Taylor holding on. Taylor finally fighting back a little, but Froch puts him down! He got in trouble too early. Taylor getting hit too much and with 16 seconds left, the referee has to step in to stop it and it was a good stoppage. Wow. Taylor simply ran out of gas. The better boxer lost because the better boxer could not go 12 rounds. Wow. KO for Froch.

With all respect to Froch, he'll not be able to do this against the elite of the division. Jermaine is not the biggest puncher in the division, but then again...Froch did wear him out. This will vault Froch into the conversation. We'll see how he does. I got this wrong. It looked like it would end the way I expected, but Jermaine did not close it.

Post-fight, Jim Grey says two of the official cards had it 106-102 for Taylor, so those track my card pretty closely. It was a good stop though. Taylor's hands were coming down and he was unable to defend himself. Great fight.

Realtime post - 4/11/09 HBO fight card

2009-04-11T22:05:00.005-04:00

Okay, so I couldn't stay away. It's more fun to post with the keyboard on my lap than it is to score the fights then post the results. And this way, I get to post how I did with my predictions immediately.

Arreola v. McCline

I forgot that McCline always looks like he's on stilts. Round one. Steward aptly points out that McCline always starts fast, but fades. That's true. Arreola begins by working the body. Arreola goes up top and McCline jabbing rather ineffectively. A minute left. McCline making more noise grunting as he throws a jab than his actual jab is making. Arreola lands big shot across McCline's chin with a right hand. Toe to toe and Arreola takes round one, up 10-9.

Round two. McCline claims to have "retired" after his last fight and that this is a comeback fight. Whatever. He's 39-9 coming in and he takes what comes his way. Arreola walking him down and moving his hands. McCline finally lands a shot, but Arreola is having his way. McCline is almost totally defensive with a minute left. Larry Merchant calls Arreola a combination puncher and Merchant clearly likes him. He's hard not to like considering how much he throws his hands. Arreola easily takes round two, up 20-18.

Round three. McCline throwing punches in an effort to keep Arreola off but he's not discouraging him. Merchant reminds us that McCline did knock down Peter three times. To me, it looks like McCline is gassed, with his mouth hanging open. McCline is punching back, though. Arreola momentarily wobbled! And again, McCline shows no finishing instinct. I see McCline's straight right repeatedly finds a home on Arreola's advancing chin. Arreola lands a good uppercut, but McCline lands a hard left to Arreola's face. Good fighting round goes to McCline, down 28-29.

My card matches Lederman, but this is a pretty obvious scoring fight so far. I think McCline runs out of gas in a few rounds. Arreola is definitely getting the better of it, landing combinations and throwing with both hands as he leans in and upward at the tall McCline. Down goes McCline! A hard combination puts him down and he doesn't beat the count. To be fair, it really didn't look like he wanted to get up...but it's probably a good thing he didn't. Arreola was accurate and strong. The replay of the KO combination was impressive: an uppercut setting up a right cross, reset and a two punch combination drops McCline. Not a single punch missed.

Arreola KO over McCline round 4.

Williams v. Wright

Merchant introduces the fight by saying the if Williams uses his natural gifts, specifically his speed, he should "uphold the 2-1 odds." Now Steward chimes in saying that this is the "worst fight for Winky Wright". These are experienced boxing minds, so it's hard to overlook them. My contrarian nature has me bucking their wisdom as underestimating Wright...but I've got to agree. If Williams shows up, his awkward presentation, his volume punching, punches from angles and southpaw stance will negate Wright's typical southpaw stance, awkward peekaboo style and counterpunching. Merchant's point was that speed exposes age. It should. I have time to type this because of the delay.

This fight is at middleweight 160lbs. when Williams is also actively campaigning at 147lb. welterweight. Wright is age 37 and Williams is 27. Williams has a 2 1/2" reach advantage.
Williams comes out first, which means that Wright negotiated to come out last. Well, Wright should go out first on the way out. I've seen Wright be a poor sport after losing decisions, so perhaps he'll make another quick exit afterward. We'll see.

Geez...Winky hasn't fought in a year and 262 days? How crazy is that? And in the run-up, I am reminded that the fight I specifically recall him thinking he won when he lost was in against Bernard Hopkins. The HBO team reminds me that Winky turned down a lucrative rematch with Jermaine Taylor after a draw, opting to sit out for these nearly two years. Hmph. Let's get this started, already...

Round one. "I'm fair but I'm firm" Joe Cortez is the referee. This guy is a bum. I've seen this prima donna screw up some good fights. Let's hope he doesn't do it tonight. Williams looks very long and faster, even though Winky doesn't look slow or rusty really. Half way through. Wright connecting. Merchant says Williams does not fight tall. Williams is not moving his hands quite constantly. When he does throw, he has the advantage. Williams succeeds in the last minute. I give it to Winky, though. close round. Wright 10-9.

Round two. Lederman gave the first round to Williams. Williams hitting Wright more halfway through. Wright is stunned by the frequency of the punches. Now Williams takes thirty seconds off and Wright comes back a bit. Wright lands, but Williams' volume is way up. Forty seconds left and volume is getting the better of Wright. Welt on Winky's eye according to the HBO team. This one goes to Williams, even at 19-19.

Round three. Williams throws so much that there is nowhere for Wright to fit in his punches. With a minute left, Williams slows a bit. Merchant thinks Wright thinks he can knock out Williams, but I find that very doubtful. Not only does Winky not KO poeple, but Williams has a solid beard...which he promptly proves as Wright lands a heavy punch and Williams shows zero effect. Forty seconds left. Williams edges a close round. He's not landing a lot, but Wright can't get off enough to make an impression. Williams goes ahead 29-28.

Round four. Lederman gives all three rounds so far to Williams. Lederman is in love with Williams. Halfway through and Wright has almost seemed not to throw a punch. Wright stuck in defensive mode and doesn't seem to have time to break out of his peekaboo defense. Finally some life from Wright, but Williams is pouring on the punching. No place for Wright to go. Williams is also fighting rough. They touch gloves at the round's end. Williams takes this round pretty clearly to go up 39-37.

Round five. Williams starting again to throw his hands so much that Wright doesn't know what to do. Wright holding Williams' head down and Wright throwing less. Seems to be looking for a big punch, but is stymied by the volume from Williams. I doubt there's any way to prepare for a fighter like Williams. Williams lands a big punch and Wright walks though. Wright holding Williams. Merchant says he sees this round as Winky's best, but if so I missed it. The corners seem to agree, but I've got to give it to Williams, up 49-46.

Round six. Williams' corner tells him to avoid a brawl. Wright countering effectively and Williams' volume definitely dropping. Williams allowing Wright into his space. Williams not moving and throwing a lot, so it's a boxing match...which favors Wright. Still a close round and Williams closes strong. Very close round. I give it to Wright, so he closes to 56-58.

Round seven. Lampley obsesses over the worthless punchtrack numbers, intoning that Williams' punch output has doubled Wright. Lederman gives every round to Williams, enthusiastically endorsing the skills of Williams. One minute left and Winky looks tired and is moving like a tired fighter. He still has quick movement, but I think the pace is wearing on him. Williams takes it, going up 68-65.

Round eight. I'm wrong that Lederman has given every round to Williams. He has it 69-64. Williams is putting Wright almost entirely defensive. Wright accomplishing little in there. Wright working the body a lilttle, but it's not making a dent and Williams is still bringing lots of pain. Winky is just absorbing it, trying to deflect as many as he can. Williams is outlanding to such an extent that Wright's occasional efforts are lost. Williams' round again, 78-74.

Round nine. Williams takes the first minute off, which means that he dances and still outpunches Wright. Williams energy is endless. Williams still looks fresh and Wright looks whipped. Wright pins Williams left hand and Williams hits Wright about ten times with the unpinned hand. Wright looks baffled. Ten seconds. Wright doesn't even try to close the round well. Williams takes another, going up 88-83.

Round ten. I've seen Wright in a lot of fights and he doesn't ever look this beaten. Williams barrages Wright. Wright is totally defensive and Williams looks a bit like he's having fun! Williams punch volume is going up! and he's smiling and it's not an act. He's crushing a world class fighter. Wow. Wright has presented major problems for Jermaine Taylor, Bernard Hopkins, etc.. Emmanuel Steward calls Williams freakishly talented. It appears true. Wright lands a couple, but Williams pays him back with a dozen punches. Williams again, 98-92.

Round eleven. For the first time, Wright's corner tells him the truth: "we're behind in this fight..." Ya think? Well...it's not Wright's fault. He's looked pretty sharp...when he can punch. Wright turns up the volume himself, seemingly in response to his corner, but Williams comes on and shuts him down. Williams threw the most punches (105) of the fight in the tenth. His punch output is going up! unreal for a fighter standing six foot three and weighing in at 160lb.. Wright is game, but still only wants to fight in spurts. A closer round still goes to Williams 108-101.

Round twelve. Williams comes out like a house on fire. Wright fights back but he can't keep up. For a few moments it's an all out war at ring center, but Wright doesn't fight that way and they fall together in a clinch. Merchant notes that Williams is showing that he wants to close the show. I agree. For a guy who is so far ahead, it's nice to see him mixing it up. Williams is exposing himself despite his corner's admonition coming in to be wary of Wright as a desperate fighter. Ten seconds. Both are throwing and they hug it out after the bell. Williams takes the last round, for a final tally on my card favoring Williams 118-110.

Official Judges scorecards: 119-109 by both Roth and Hoyle and 120-108 shutout by Byrd (a marginal judge who scored the Calzaghe/Hopkins fight for Hopkins). Unanimous decision for Paul Williams. A blowout. Wow. This was far more one-sided than I expected. I knew that if the volume game was brought by Williams, he would have a distinct advantage. Boy did he ever.

As to my predictions from earlier tonight, I'd say I did pretty well. I predicted a 9th round KO for Arreola, but it happened earlier, in the 4th round. My excuse is that I didn't realize that McCline had considered himself retired until six weeks before tonight. As for the Williams/Wright matchup, I called it correctly as a decision for Williams and even predicted a wider margin if Williams showed up ready to use volume punching as his primary weapon, but I didn't envision a blowout. Williams was very impressive against a top level middleweight who has given the best middleweights in the world fits. Wow.

Predictions for 4/11/09 Arreola/McCline & Williams/Wright

2009-04-11T20:49:00.004-04:00

I'm back after a significant layoff to enter my fight night predictions for the April 11, 2009 HBO card! I've watched a few fights since my last blog but just haven't been able to get excited about any fights. Frankly, these aren't really exciting either, but they aren't all that easy to predict.

The undercard boasts the up and coming leads-with-his-face-and-it-shows Cristobal Arreola. The most promising young American heavyweight has shown legitimate boxing skills, a decent chin, a finisher's instinct and an inability to either get out of the way of punches or stop eating. Every time I see this guy, he's fatter and that is not going to improve his speed or his defense. Fortunately for him, he's not going to have to worry about it against perennial trialhorse gatekeeper Jameel McCline. McCline is a mountain of a man who exhibits flashes of skill, but lacks a killer instinct and is satisfied to draw out a fight and lose a decision. That said, I see McCline unable to avoid the aggressiveness of Arreola. This goes four or five rounds until Arreola realizes he can get inside by absorbing a punch or two and he starts driving McCline backward. Once McCline is backing up, his reach advantage is neutralized and he covers up. Arreola exploits this by working the body, getting the hands to drop, then pummelling McCline into submission. KO for Arreola in round 9.

Okay so that one didn't feel as tough as I thought it would be...but Wright v. Williams is a different story. Nobody wants to fight either of these guys, so they end up fighting each other. Paul Williams, who is campaigning in three weight classes simultaneously apparently, doesn't deserve this kind of treatment. He is an exciting fighter who punches in bunches and has shown flash knockout power. He should be getting marquee fights and the only reason he isn't is because he lost his undefeated record to a lesser fighter who fought the fight of his life to beat him. Despite Williams avenging that loss immediately and dramatically, the allure of the unbeaten record disappeared and with it the marquee value of fighting a guy who is so darn tough to handle. Williams is long, strong, willing and lets his hands go. So now Williams is back to struggling to find big fights.

Wright on the other hand deserves every bit of his reputation. While he's earned a realfightfan's respect, he's never been fun to watch. He's a pure counterpuncher and lacks knockout power. He's perfectly willing to win rounds by making the other guy look bad, even when he's losing the crowd. He's tough to hit through his peek-a-boo style, so he seldom absorbs serious punishment and nearly always takes fights to decision. He's a heck of a boxer, but fans...including this realfightfan...want to see something more. We want to see aggression and a willingness to mix it up. Wright doesn't get dragged into brawls. He controls pace, plays defense and waits to exploit other fighter's mistakes.

So who wins? I'm calling Paul Williams to decision Wright, maybe even by split decision. Wright is getting older and while his style shouldn't be hurt too much by slowing down a fraction and he'll surely be in shape for the fight, Williams is a volume puncher. Though we've seen Williams depart from that volume style in some recent fights, at least in spots, I think Williams will revert to form for this fight. He should. If Williams lays back, then Wright will exploit every lapse and steal rounds. I expect Williams to figure that out at some point and let his hands go full time. If Williams does that early, the margin should be wider.

That said, I think that Williams too is aging a bit as a fighter. What I mean by that is that what we've seen in the last few fights may be a penchant for taking time off here and there. Maybe Williams is a little less hungry. Maybe he feels he's proved himself, at least in part...and he doesn't have to be so relentless to compete at the highest level. If that's true tonight, Wright will make him pay. In the Williams fights I witnessed in his ascendency (which, to be fair, he could still be said to be in), he threw punches almost constantly. In handily defeating the now-disgraced, but then much-avoided Antonio Margarito, Williams never let up. He baffled Margarito for the entire first half of the fight, barraging him non-stop. Margarito couldn't catch his breath or make sense of it. He closed the gap a bit later in the fight, but it was too late. If Williams holds Wright in the same regard as he clearly did Margarito, we might see the re-emergence of that volume puncher. If so, Wright will be fighting off his heels all night and while he is a superlative counterpuncher, you can't counter when you're constantly being punched in the face.

Looking forward to this fight night on HBO.

Juan Diaz v. Juan Manuel Marquez "live"

2009-02-28T23:17:00.005-05:00

And now for another live typewritten account of the fight as it happens. I'm sitting with my keyboard on my lap and the fight buildup onscreen in front of me. Ring #2 pound for pound Marquez against the Baby Bull. I'm watching Marquez do his ring walk and the Baby Bull Juan Diaz is already in the ring. HBO's Max Kellerman is crowning Marquez as the second coming. Marquez is great, no question...but styles make fights. Diaz was undone by the Galaxy Warrior Nate Campbell for his only loss two fights ago, but Nate fought the fight of his career to do it. It's hard to say how Marquez will handle the volume punching and ring skill of young Diaz. Conventional wisdom definitely picks Marquez. As much as I like Diaz, who definitely belongs in the ring with Marquez, I think Marquez...unless he suddenly appears shot in the face of the barrage that Diaz brings...will take it by decision, let's call it 116-112. He's a born counterpuncher and has been in tough a LOT.

They are coming to ring center. And the bell rings for the first round. Neither fighter can get a rhythm. Diaz lands. Diaz pinning Marquez and Diaz is getting the better of it at the halfway point. Marquez is a slow starter as I recall. Diaz eases up for the next thirty seconds, then comes on. Marquez is countering better at the round's conclusion. It's a fight with ten seconds to go. A brawl at the bell. A very close round, that goes to Diaz 10-9.

Diaz finding a home for his overhand right. Diaz is NOT a heavy handed fighter and I wonder if that won't factor in. If he can't stun Marquez he will have trouble. Diaz definitely getting the better of a war halfway though. What a great fight! Marquez stunned! Left hand. Marquez' back to the ropes and works his way out. Eating my words on Diaz' power...Marquez WAS stunned, but recovers. Marquez working the body on Diaz. A crafty thing to do considering he is behind. Diaz still bringing it. Diaz lands hard and Marquez hanging in. Diaz takes it to pull out to 20-18.

Lederman agrees with me. Never a good sign, but then it's likely that the judges will too in Houston...Diaz' hometown. Kellerman mentions Marquez' age and it seems apt because of "the wars he's been in." Nothing different a minute in. Diaz making Marquez fight at his pace and Diaz is stalking. Marquez missing. Diaz advancing and Marquez looks like he is having a bit of trouble getting off. Marquez IS fighting back, but he is always moving backward. Marquez lands several big shots...that aren't backing Diaz off, but they must hurt. Marquez getting the better of it. Marquez takes that round on clean counterpunching to pull to 28-29. However, I wonder if in friendly Houston and with Diaz always walking forward, Diaz doesn't take a round like that.

Lederman gave Diaz that round. He's aways a round behind. Diaz lands big several times. Diaz bringing spectacular looking combinations. Diaz takes twenty seconds off in the middle of the round then contines to bring the pain. Marquez fighting well to push Diaz back off the ropes. Even going into the last minute. Diaz drives Marquez back into the ropes and Marquez reacts like a champion, counterpunching in combination as if to respond to the oohs of the crowd. Marquez closes out the round better. Very hard round to score, but I'll give it to Diaz. 39-37.

And Lederman finally awards a round to Marquez. Again, a round behind. Marquez getting the better of it countering in the first minute, but Diaz brings aggression and pulls closer to even in the round. Diaz puts Marquez on the ropes. Off the ropes Marquez is far more effective and on the ropes Diaz punishes him. The HBO team comments that Marquez lands harder and they may be right, but hard to say. This is a great fight. The smart walk-forward volume puncher against the tough counterpuncher. Twenty seconds left and Diaz shining. Ten seconds left and they hear the tap and Diaz brings it harder and because they are pinned against the ropes, Diaz looks better. 49-46 for Diaz.

Round 6. Diaz pins Marquez in the corner and looks better...works Marquez across the ring, pins him again and looks better again. Marquez hasn't yet perfectly found the answer to the volume of Diaz. Diaz keeps getting to pin Marquez and Marquez looks a bit gassed because he is allowing it. He is not yet able to back off Diaz. With a minute left, this round has been mostly Diaz. Thirty seconds to go and Marquez not distinguishing himself. A war in a corner that comes out even. Ten seconds to go and Diaz still coming forward. Diaz' round 59-55. Diaz is building a lead and I've yet to see him, in fights past, lose steam. Diaz has a solid beard. Marquez is in trouble on points.

Round 7: a minute goes by and the fighters seems to be taking a breather a bit. Marquez more effective because Diaz is not walking him down, but instead is boxing him. Marquez' round so far, but Lampley is claiming that Marquez' mouth is open and he is breathing hard. I don't see it. Marquez is ahead in the round. Diaz comes on with twenty seconds to go, but it's not enough on my card. Round 7 to Marquez on my card, making it 68-65, still favoring Diaz.

Lederman gives that last round to Diaz. Good. I feel like I'm right if I'm not tracking him in a close fight. That said, it IS a close fight. Marquez more effective through a minute of the round. He doesn't look tired to me. Here comes Diaz though. Just bringing the aggression and hails of punches. Diaz is bleeding too now. Marquez lands a big uppercut. both are bleeding. Diaz has him pinned on the ropes with a minute left, but doesn't turn the tide. Both men's cuts are over their right eyes.. Marquez lands big. Diaz is hurt. A misstep gives him away. Ten seconds to go...Diaz hangs in. Round to Marquez, making it 77-75, still for Diaz...but the gap is closing.

The Diaz cut looks to be on the eyelid. Round 9 of a great fight begins. Diaz presses forward. Marquez countering effectively. Diaz seems to go low. They bang heads. A minute in and it is even. Diaz is forcing Marquez on to the ropes and Marquez spinning out much faster now. As soon as I say that, he gets pinned and when that happens Diaz looks like he gets the better of it. Diaz GOES DOWN. Big uppercut. 35 seconds to go. Marquez finishes him with a uppercut. KO. Wow. Didn't really see that coming because Diaz, while he took a lot of punishment, as his style insists he must (especially to a great coutnerpuncher), he didn't look like he was in trouble.

A solid performance by Marquez to beat a very game Diaz. The accuracy of the counterpunching and Marquez' heavier hands carried the day. Great fight, though. The official judges had it 77-75, 75 - 77 and 76-76 respectively. Close fight. Great fight.

Margarito v. Mosley "live"

2009-01-24T22:43:00.003-05:00

I'm picking up the typing midway through the second round. I give the first round to Mosley for aggressiveness and sharper punching against the notoriously slow starting Margarito. HBO informs us that Margarito was busted pre-fight with a "hardening" substance in his hand wrap. Was it there when Margarito destroyed Cotto?

The second round is closing and again, it's close and with 20 seconds to go it's up for grabs. The ref separates them and tells them he wants them to "be gentlemen"?!? Good luck with that. I give round two to Mosley, so it's 20-18 Mosley.

Uh oh, I agree with Harold Lederman? Shane is staying away and Margarito is missing. Margarito is starting to use a jab and connect and Mosley connects with hooks, but Margarito is made of stone. Mosley lands heavy shots and Margarito just smiles. Nice combinations. As long as Mosley doesn't fade, he should be okay. Recall that Cotto unloaded to Margarito's head for 8 rounds. Margarito still coming forward, and Mosley wins that round handily. Up 30-27.

Margarito ineffective early in the fourth. I agree with Jim Lampley that Mosley is banking rounds. Margarito is game but Mosley is not a fighter who fades. It's a good fight! Mosley unloading, blocking and counterpunching. Mosley jumping in and boxing well against the very aggressive and wild Margarito. Mosley boxing very well at mid-range with the heavy handed Margarito. And Lampley asks the same question about the Cotto fight and the hand wrap that I asked above. Did Margarito cheat in July against Cotto? Of course, no hand wrap would explain how Margarito ate Cotto's heavy leather all night and was still there and strong in the eleventh to TKO Cotto. Mosley's round again, but closer 40-36

Same story at the ouset of the fifth. Margarito more active but Shane is pushing Margarito, tying him up, separating and punishing him when they break. Margarito leaves himself unprotected when they break and Mosley is exploiting it. Shane has gone to school to beat Margarito's style and Shane is fearless. Mosley again 50-45. All of the first five rounds go to Shane. It's a fun fight to watch.

Opening the sixth, Mosley snaps Margarito's head back. Even through half the round and Margarito still coming forward while Mosley sticks the jab and beats Antonio over the top. Shane knew what he was coming in against and he didn't have any of the illusions that Cotto had about his opponents tendency to wilt before him. Shane will not bend. Shane will not break. Shane backing up Margarito. Shane takes the sixth easily, up 60-54. Maybe only one of these rounds have been close enough to go for Margarito. It's competitive but the rounds, one after another, are going to Mosley quite clearly.

I agree with the HBO team that Shane won't wilt like Cotto. Shane won't punch himself out. Shane is landing heavy leather up top, but the difference from Cotto is that Shane doesn't expect Margarito to fall. Shane is ready and willing to go all the way. He's not expecting to see Margarito on the canvas. He knows that his heavy shots all night long are still going to leave Margarito in front of him. With 40 seconds left, Mosley is shoe-shining with jabs and staying away, cuffing and stepping in and tagging him. Mosley takes a closer round 70-63.

Mosley maybe slowing down a bit. Hugging more. Margarito lands heavy at 2 minute mark. Margarito more effective and Mosley tying up more. With a minute left, it's Margarito's round. Last minute, Shane turns it up again. Both guys tie up, then Mosley absolutely tags him and UNBELIEVABLY Margarito goes down!!! Mosley loads up right hands and sharp combinations over and over! He drives Margarito around the ring and he stumbles. 80-71 based on the 10-8 round.

Margarito is totally defensive. Mosley WINS BY KO!!! drops Margarito with bombs as the referee steps in to stop it. True KO for Mosley. What do you think of the welterweight division? Wow! Like Emmanuel Steward, I am "totally impressed". Mosley is a finisher and he came out, touched gloves and started to stalk his prey. It took him 40 seconds into the ninth to finish him.

"This is what's so great about boxing!" Emmanuel, I couldn't agree more. What an upset. Mosley comes in a 4-1 underdog to the guy who absolutely destroyed the unbeatable Cotto...and knocks him out.

Not to take anything away from Shane, I can't help but wonder if Margarito cheated against Cotto. I want to see Margarito rematch Cotto. Anyway...I'm consistently impressed with the professionalism of Mosley. A left put Margarito in trouble and Mosley finished strong.

What a division this welterweight division is. Now let's bring on Pacquiao/Hatton! Winner rematches Mayweather.

Taylor Whips Lacy and a Delahoya/Hatton preview

2008-11-18T21:34:00.005-05:00

When I wrote down my prediction for the Taylor/Lacy fight, I was stuck in euphoric recall of the pre-Calzaghe Lacy, whose opponents cowered before him. He seemed invincible in the same way we all regarded the pre-Douglas Mike Tyson. Like Tyson, once the aura of invincibility was shattered, all the flaws in his style showed through the cracks.

To be fair, Jeff Lacy is still a good boxer. He's just not a good enough boxer to compete with elite fighters. He gets blown out by a super-elite fighter like Joe Calzaghe. He is badly overmatched, but not demolished by a fighter like Jermaine Taylor. For his part, Taylor has been hit with a bad rap. He dethroned the (here's the HBO announcing crews' cue to fall all over themselves) "legendary" Bernard Hopkins, then outpointed him in the rematch (yes, he did Bernard...quiet down). Taylor got KO'd by Kelly Pavlik, sure...but only after he dropped Pavlik and nearly ended it early. If Pavlik hadn't shown that kind of resiliency, we'd still be talking about Taylor as a pound-for-pound nominee and his marginal performances fighting down to the likes of the undersized and apparently shot-early Ouma would be forgotten.

In other words, this was the matchup of overrated (yes, even after getting trounced by Welsh Joe...mostly because Joe is currently being legitimately fitted for Superman's cape) versus the underappreciated. Any realfightfan knew who would win. I'm ashamed to say that I played it safe in my prediction, calling it by decision for Taylor 116-111.

While I called three rounds of the twelve round fight close, the fight was never really close. At times, it was competitive, sure...but Taylor had clearly faster hands. Spending most of the fight backing up, Taylor potshotted, counterpunched, punched in combination and danced away. Lacy was game, coming forward practically the whole fight, but he was clearly the slower handed fighter. He lunged in, led with his face and was simply beat to the punch over and over. In this space, I've before bemoaned the type of fighter who, notwithstanding his determination, spends an entire fight repeating his mistakes, hoping for a different result. Lacy was and is that type of fighter. At times like that, I want to sneak into his corner and tell him, "try something...anything different!" Move to side to side, work the body exclusively, cut off the ring...anything...or at least anything different.

Alas, there was no solution for Jeff Lacy. Taylor had more tools, he was sharper, he had a better game plan and he is the superior focused boxer. If this was the crossroads fight for Lacy, he got run over by the Taylor train.

The only round I clearly gave Lacy was round 5 because it was a competitive round and because he knocked Taylor down. Now...the referee called in a slip, so I couldn't score it 10-8, but it sure looked like a knockdown to me. The replay showed it was a glancing blow, Taylor's footwork was obviously bad and he was off-balance, but that doesn't make it not a knockdown. Taylor said the ref saw (what the replay didn't show) Lacy unintentionally step on Taylor's foot, sending him off-balance...which seems plausible, except when you consider how both fighters behaved in the following minute or so of that round (and in the following two rounds). Lacy stalked, trying to finish the job and Taylor worked to escape and tie up. The fight also became competitive for the next two rounds as Lacy was clearly energized by the non-knockdown knockdown. I called rounds 6 and 7 for Taylor, but scored them both as close rounds (rounds which I felt could legitimately be called either way).

Otherwise, it was a blowout. By fight's end, my card, like one of the three official scorecards, read 119-109 for Taylor. The other two official scorecards had it 118-110 for Taylor. I hereby vow never to assess Jeff Lacy through the prism of the past...at least not against elite competition. But let's face it...we probably won't see him in against elite level competition anymore, except perhaps as a gatekeeper. He's a good fighter with a lot of heart and a good left hook that he doesn't throw much any more (a fact astutely pointed out by HBO's Larry Merchant, still the class of the crew). If he decides to stick around, he'll test good young fighters coming up and maybe great old fighters coming back down, but at the elite level...stick a fork in him...he's done.

Now...to Delahoya v. Pacquiao. This superfight brings a 135 lb champion ( yes...I'm giving Pacquiao that weight even though he's only fought there once and otherwise at 130 lb his whole career because he blew out titleholder David Diaz at that weight...and he's earned legitimacy there as result. He's not blown up at 135 lb...he's not!) in against arguably the best 154 lb figher of this generation. Delahoya will stand fully 4 inches taller than Pacquiao in the ring and will have a four inch reach advantage. Though the catchweight is 147 lb, we can expect Pacquiao to hover around 142 on fight night, even after the weigh in and Oscar will bulk up to 154 lb or higher with 30 hours to re-hydrate. If Pacquiao comes in heavier, his speed will be affected...so he won't.

Can a fighter of Pacquiao's caliber overcome a four inch reach disadvantage and give away over 15 pounds in the ring? Absolutely. Can he do it against one of the elite fighters of this era at that fighter's more natural weight. Of course not. I see this as a huge mistake for Pacquiao. Some say that he has nothing to lose and all that money to gain. In a way, that's true. But how much money is your legacy worth? I suspect that once the stars clear and he's staring up at those lights as he's counted out, he'll wonder whether it's all worth it.

I see Delahoya knocking Pacquiao out in the ninth. The same round that Delahoya himself succumbed to Bernard Hopkins when he took the same kind of fight. I'm looking forward to the fight, though. I love watching Oscar fight and I can't root against Pacquiao...so for that thrill alone, they can have my $59.95 or whatever it will be, but I don't see this fight as even particulary competitive after the first three rounds. Delahoya's heavy jab and heavier hands will start to wear Manny down and a big left hook will catch him coming in.

On to Hatton v. Malignaggi. Simple as this: Malignaggi is out of his depth. Hatton will take over this fight by stepping inside of Malignaggi's range. Hatton will then punish him, as Malignaggi struggles to find a way to get the fight back to range. Failing that, he will engage Hatton inside and take a miserable beating for it. I think we finally see our Hatton of old back in this fight, mostly because Paulie is psychologically taylor-made for Ricky. Paulie loves to showcase his handspeed, but it won't matter against Hatton because Hatton bobs and weaves to get inside, then roughs up his opponent. He is relentless and focused and there is method to his mayhem. If he weren't so darn likeable, I'd dislike his fighting style as dirty...and some do. But ask Kostya if it works. It certainly Kost him. He was aKosted, in fact. Malignaggi will get his payday, but at what Kost? That was too far, wasn't it?

Meanwhile, a fighter has to be supremely skilled to avoid making the fight that Ricky wants. Recall that only one fighter has done it so far. Is Malignaggi that skilled? No. The only other question then is whether Ricky Hatton still wants to fight, still has the stomach for it and still has enough shelf-life in him not to be shot? Probably, perhaps and surely enough for Malignaggi. This is Ricky's fight, but it goes the distance. I'll call this one 117-111 for Ricky. Paulie is a tough guy, but he's going to play right into Ricky's hands and I think we'll see that Ricky decides by about the 3rd round that he still enjoys big time fighting (last time out it took until about the 5th, as I recall). Ricky's not quite ready to hang it up and this fight will see his return to the closest we've seen yet to his pre-Mayweather form. It'll be a good fight, if not a particularly close one.

Light Heavys and Super Middles and Who Cares?

2008-11-09T10:22:00.006-05:00

I've been away, but haven't stopped watching. Three fights caught my attention in the past month and a half:

Antonio Tarver v. Chad Dawson - my opinion of Dawson was suitably lowered after he lost convincingly to Glencoffe Johnson and walked away with the decision. Johnson stalked him, bullied and pounded him while he flailed ineffectively, attempting to keep him off. I guess that ineffective flailing was enough to be considered crafty counterpunching by judges determined to preserve the division's preeminent rising stars' undefeated record intact. Johnson the journeyman master doesn't get to prevail in the real life world of boxing. Those kind of decisions stand as proof positive of the difference between the way boxing should be and the way it is. Perhaps it is an apt metaphor for life, but if so it is a depressing one.

So...you can see that I was not too thrilled to watch Dawson again. I hoped that I might see the active-mouthed, if not particularly active-handed Tarver look the way he did against his last opponent. Last time out, Tarver got a walk-over against a tomato can beltholder from England who proved no better than a club fighter who led with his face. Tarver got to pick his spots, moved his hands more than he had in previous outings as a result and won easily. Against Dawson, I naively prayed for a Tarver renaissance where he once again threw caution to the wind and let his hands go. If that Tarver re-appeared, then he could dispatch this pretending contender. Alas, my prayers were in vain.

Tarver looked like the same Tarver we've had to endure since he supposedly exposed the aging Roy Jones, Jr.: tentative, looking and waiting for an opening that never comes and hoping for one big punch to change the tide of the fight while holding energy in reserve for the flurry that would be required to finish it. It's so frustrating to watch that fighter as he plods toward defeat. Indeed, we give up hope after a few fights that he will ever land that game-changing punch because he never does. He didn't land it in this fight either.

That isn't to say that Dawson didn't acquit himself well. He did. His hands were clearly faster, he counterpunched with both hands and kept the stalking, but ineffectual Tarver at bay throughout the fight. That said, his defense was poor and he was easy for the very occasionally agressive Tarver to hit. We only saw a fight in the 12th round, when Tarver started to let his hands go without fear of being hit. Tarver went down, but still won the round on my card. If only Tarver were less afraid of being hit, he'd be a much better championship level fighter. No risk, no reward in this hurt business and Tarver stopped taking risks when in deep long ago.

Kelly Pavlik v. Bernard Hopkins - here is a fight I'm glad I didn't buy. It didn't turn out as I would have called it, but it was still ugly. While that isn't really fair to Bernard Hopkins, who changed his fighting style and surprised Pavlik with his hand speed, it's still true for me. I knew this was a stupid fight for Pavlik to take and it turned out to be...just not for the reasons I anticipated.

Fighting over his weight, Pavlik looked one-dimensional against Hopkins. He stalked Hopkins but was overmatched by the angles Hopkins gave him. If I didn't dislike Hopkins so much, I would give him credit for remaking himself after the Calzaghe loss. I would laud his fast hands, his veteran poise, his defensive mastery. I'll leave that to the ever-fawning HBO crew, who can never get enough of lavishing praise on him. For me, Hopkins took advantage of a stupid promoting team in making this fight. Pavlik, who once said he'd fight godzilla if his promoter put him in front of him, took this no-win fight despite Hopkins clearly being the physically larger fighter.

I may be stretching to find the reason to dismiss this fight and if so, so be it...but we all know Hopkins put himself through superhuman torture for years to make the 160 lb. weight limit where Pavlik now rules. His self-discipline is legendary. So...now that he'd blown himself up to 175 to fight Tarver a few years ago, then never come back down, why would Pavlik agree to fight him 8 pounds north of Pavlik's ideal fighting weight? Why not make Hopkins sweat off that extra 8 pounds if you're stupid enough to take this fight? Who would be so stupid as to take this fight? If you win, Hopkins was too old. If you lose, your career takes a downturn and your zero goes away. Why take on the acclaimed defensive fighter of his generation at a weight of his choosing? Who would pay to tune in? I didn't.

When I watched it on replay, I knew the outcome and though I was surprised by it when I heard it...it's not quite so surprising in retrospect. Pavlik is at his limit at 160 lb right now. That is where his punch took him. In 5 years that may change as his musculature changes, but right now he is still a slim 160 lb.. It was no mistake seeing a slight roll on him at close to 168. He was not ready to take it up 8 pounds and certainly not against Bernard Hopkins.

Now...to Hopkins' credit, he did the job. First of all, he made the fight...which as it turns out was all the battle. He handpicked Pavlik and Pavlik's handlers are apparently too stupid to see the spider coming down the web. Credit to Enzo Calzaghe, who called this fight lopsidedly for Hopkins. The fight also puts Calzaghe's runaway win against Hopkins in perspective. Hopkins is hardly over the hill, as his otherworldly conditioning apparently is keeping him young. Perhaps I should also give Hopkins credit for coming out of his ugly one-punch and hug style to take the fight to the undersized one-note Pavlik. He moved away from Pavlik's power hand all night, but did step in to deliver punishment and never let Pavlik get his legs under him. I just hate giving credit to Bernard Hopkins. Let Max Kellerman fall all over himself. I'll take Joe Calzaghe.

Joe Calzaghe v. Roy Jones, Jr. - okay, so if you know boxing you'll ask me...why buy this fight, if you wouldn't buy Pavlik/Hopkins? the answer is severalfold: 1) I like these fighters and I don't like watching Bernard Hopkins, win or lose; 2) Joe is a volume punching fighter who showboats; 3) Roy is a showboat who can punch, when he can get away with it.

So how was it? A lot of fun...for a Joe Calzaghe fan. Listening to Max Kellerman fawn over Roy Jones, Jr. you can't help but wonder if he's got stock in Roy's promotional company. When Roy was in the fight (which he never really was, but if you listen to the HBO team, he won the first two rounds), you would have thought Roy had shaken off all the tarnish of his precipitous fall from the height of the sport. Excusing his three consecutive KO losses based on the weight loss after Ruiz, taking the follow-up fight too soon, and underestimating Glencoffe Johnson respectively, the HBO crew was ready to anoint Jones again. This, as they ignored Calzaghe piling up points and outquicking Jones even in the first two rounds. When Jones landed a lucky punch that stunned Calzaghe sending him down in the first, they immediately wrote Calzaghe off.

In fact, Kellerman proclaimed in the second round (that Calzaghe won on my scorecard and apparently on all three official scorecards too) that Jones was making Calzaghe "look like a washed up Trinidad." Not until the fourth round of Calzaghe clearly and repeatedly beating Jones to the punch without answer did the HBO team begin to change their tune, grudgingly conceding that Jones, who was barely able to fight back, was not getting the better of...well...any exchange. Apart from a brief renaissance in the sixth round (that wasn't enough to take the round on any card), Jones settled into a pattern of covering and getting beaten up. For his part, Calzaghe poured it on, relishing this opportunity to embarrass Jones in whose 168 lb shadow he'd built his career.

I'm not convinced that I must score a round in which a fighter is knocked down 10-8 for the fighter doing the knocking down. Of course, putting a fighter on the canvas ought factor significantly and a point must be awarded, but if that downed fighter otherwise clearly won the round, scoring the round 9-9 seems appropriate to me, as my 119-108 card suggested. I gave every round to Calzaghe, even the first where he was knocked down. Apparently, the official scorers disagreed. They gave every round to Calzaghe, except that first round (which they all awarded to Jones 10-8). The three ringside scorers agreed 118-109. I still like my scoring better, but at least the uniformity will tell the tale of this fight.

HBO's Kellerman shifted into Jones apologist mode about halfway through the fight, intoning that this "isn't the Jones of old." Even in the post-fight interviews, Kellerman pointed out that Jones was not the Jones of of his prime. I wonder if the revered Jones of old picked his fights and got to look great against a procession of middling opponents. I think Max ought to pause and recall that Jones "aged right before our eyes" at 35 years old. Here is Joe Calzaghe giving him a pounding, and while Jones is now 39 (or "nearly 40" as Kellerman rather toadyingly pointed out in the post-fight), Calzaghe is 36 years old. It is apparently good enough for Max that Jones once looked otherworldly against fighters that weren't (the otherwise alarmingly mediocre) Antonio Tarver. I'm sure that the truth is somewhere between my version and Max's.

Apparently, Max forgets that Jones ducked Tarver for years. Maybe there was a good reason for that. Jones can market himself, no doubt...with his jetting between minor league basketball games and prizefights, contract with Nike and rap career. He certainly built a brand, then rehabilitated it with a new series of handpicked fights. But when he tested himself, he failed. He is not to be blamed for that. He's made his money, had his day in the sun and certainly entertained us...but maybe he ought not be held up as the greatest fighter of his generation. Perhaps he was a very good fighter in a mediocre division. Certainly, he ought not now be held up now as a shadow of his former self. Perhaps he is now exactly what he always was. A fighter who, like most good fighters, is in deep against the best fighters around...and he just didn't put himself in with the best that often.

Let me close with comment on Jim Lampley's suggestion near the close of the fight that Joe Calzaghe perhaps would have been better off not showboating to embarrass Jones. Shame on you, Jim. How many fighters did Jones himself embarass that way? Even he clearly understood that if Calzaghe could get away with it, he should. That Jones was unable to prevent it, when Calzaghe was so clearly outclassing him, was the message Calzaghe had been wanting to send for so long: "I was in Wales for 12 years fighting undefeated but unrecognized before you were brought low. You wanted no part of me. Now you know why. While you were handpickng opponents and fighting in Vegas, I saw what you did to those lesser fighters and I'll do it to you now. Stop me if you can, but you can't now anymore than you could've then. I'm the best fighter of our generation. Don't let HBO tell you otherwise. If you hadn't been exposed before now, I'd have done it. I'll do it now. Hit me if you can, Roy. You can't can you?" He couldn't.

Berto Rises and Mayorga Falls...Yet Again

2008-09-28T10:24:00.006-04:00

The HBO card on Saturday September 27, 2008 was, by a realfightfan's standards, nothing more or less than a chance to watch some boxers whose names we know. No belts at stake, no surprises likely. That said, there was no way I was passing it up because there's seems to have been so little to cheer about in the last few months. Having seen Calzaghe make a date with Roy Jones is a yawner and I can't sufficiently express my disappointment at Kelly Pavlik having set a fight with Bernard Hopkins. What a waste of time. All of that said, in truth I have only myself to blame for not having seen any good recent fights, because there was at least one...and I missed it because I didn't buy the pay-per-view of the Forrest/Mora rematch that apparently set all things right with the world. My own fault. To the card...

Stevie "two pound" Forbes has now apparently become the newest opponent for the elite and rising elite at 154. He's got a championship pedigree (safely twenty pounds south) and is committed but featherfisted. Andre Berto (22-0 coming in) was looking for a name to add to his resume. For the first few rounds, it looked like he was in a lot deeper than his camp had anticipated. Stevie countered well and his speed looked comparable to the lightning quick, but habitually inaccurate Berto. Even after the HBO team seemed to think Berto had taken control in the middle rounds, I didn't think Berto was landing almost any of his punches. He was also clinching and holding with his arms around Forbes' arms way too much considering that he was the faster, younger and stronger fighter. I had the fight for Forbes, four rounds to two, at the end of the sixth because he was counterpunching more cleanly and while Berto would throw combinations in lightning flurries, almost no punches in these barrages were landing. The crowd would ooh and aah, but Forbes was slipping, blocking and ducking, making Berto ineffective.

However, whether it was Berto's pressure, his greater strength (their physiques are a contrast, with Berto's bulging muscles and Forbes' sleek and undersized...for the weight...physique) or the opponent mentality that has begun to dog Forbes at least since the Delahoya fight, Forbes seemed to stop trying to win. Turning in a sparring partner's performance the last six rounds, Forbes seemed to go into survival mode and phone it in until the final bell. In this space, I decried the HBO announcing team after the Delahoya fight for calling Forbes out for his sparring partner mentality. Interestingly, they did it far less in this bout, but he deserved it more...at least after the sixth. At fight's end, I had it 116-112 and the official scorers had it unanimously 118-109, 118-109 and 116-111, all for Berto.

Where does Berto go from here? Well, Antonio Margarito was in the audience. If the Berto camp thinks he's ready for Margarito, I think they have another thing coming. By grabbing and fighting in spurts, as I've seen him do before, Berto is used to getting a chance not only to admire his work after his dramatic (but too often ineffectual) flurries, but to clinch and hold and catch his breath. Margarito will never allow that and is natural enough at the weight and aggressive enough to shoulder him off and rain down blows. If the Margarito who fought Cintron and Cotto shows up, Berto doesn't last six rounds. Jumping from Forbes to Margarito is a quantum leap to the highest echelon of the division. That said, if they make that fight I'll tune in...and while I'm virtually certain it ends badly for Berto...that's why they make 'em fight.

If I'm Berto's camp, I'd definitely go in next against a slightly lesser elite level fighter, if they're looking to step up. Of course, the problem for Berto is that there are so many elite level fighters in his division that every one is risky. Cintron? risky as heck...he can knock the iffy-chinned Berto out with one punch. Paul Williams? he will outwork Berto and if he doesn't get him in trouble, he'll outpoint him because Berto won't get his between-flurry rests. Miguel Cotto? If Cotto's spirit rebounds after being handed his first loss by Margarito, Cotto is the superior boxer with the heavier hands, notwithstanding Berto's speed advantage. Mosley? That's probably the guy I'd pick because while Shane still has some game at age 37 (see below), he's not as dangerous as he used to be and he's always seemed blown up to make this weight. He's a tough fight and a good win to add (by decision, probably), but not a great risk. But, as Shane implied after his own fight...he doesn't need Berto...unless he can't find anyone else to fight. That said, I bet Margarito was there not to watch Berto...but to get a fight with Sugar Shane.

To the main event. For a fight that started so promisingly and ended so satisfyingly, HBO commentator Larry Merchant's statement in round ten was fair: that is was a grueling rather than an entertaining fight. After Mayorga thrilled with his trademark wild headhunting in the opening frame, he lapsed into a hugging, clutching, complaining parody of his best days while Mosley struggled to time him and land between Mayorga's occasional bombs. With Mayorga ten pounds heavier on fight night, even when he had the fight well in hand, Mosley struggled to back Mayorga up. Meanwhile, the bullying wild tactics that elevated Mayorga to the stage in his career where he apparently remains the knockout opponent of choice for the aging elite made for a difficult fight to watch. Few punches land and when they do, we all hope they will chop Mayorga down. The sixth was almost a 10-8 round because this was clearly knockout territory for Mayorga (to BE knocked out). This is approximately when Delahoya took him out and apparently this is about where his aging elite level opponents figure him out and begin to tattoo him at will. Mosley indeed punched him cleanly in this head repeatedly in the last minute of the round and although he seemed to put him in trouble, he didn't put him down.

Interestingly, Mayorga seemed emboldened by the fact that he didn't get knocked out and had something of a resurgence in the following round, raising his arms triumphantly, apparently celebrating that he was still in the ring. The fight remained a mostly ugly hugfest until Mosley caught up to Mayorga with almost no time left in the 11th. I suspect that Mayorga, slowed from some clean shots (but not as many as you'd think) and mostly out of gas, just felt he'd put in a long enough night and went down. Don't get me wrong...Mosley KO'd him, but Mayorga didn't struggle to get up, instead dropping his head back to the mat with one second left in the round, forcing the referee to wave the fight off. When a fighter doesn't try to beat the bell, he ought to be waved off...and Mayorga was.

Was this a big win for Mosley? Who cares? All it did was give us a fight to watch, give Mosley a good workout and allow him to stay active and add his name to those of his contemporaries Trinidad and Delahoya, who've knocked out Mayorga too. Worth mention is that HBO commentator Jim Lampley suitably incredulously conveyed to the audience that one ringside judge named Pat Russell had Mayorga ahead on points at the time of the KO. This must have been the Don King judge. I say that not in jest, because there seems no reasonable way any observer could have had Mayorga ahead. I had 7 of 10 rounds for Mosley, with three of those Mosley rounds as close rounds...but 2 of the 3 scored for Mayorga were close too. Keep an eye on Russell, folks. That scorecard made no sense.

Let's look for Mayorga, at age 35 to get KO'd by a few more top level fighters before he fades into the sunset. Fans love him because he throws bombs and is willing to go out on his back. That said, another repeat or two of his hugging and complaining performance through the middle rounds of this fight and he'll stop becoming the opponent of choice to KO because no fighter wants to risk the headbutt cuts that Mayorga's bullrush hugging and butting routine is too likely to cause.

As for Sugar Shane, it's a good thing for him that he took Mayorga out. By taking him down with 3:01 to go in the fight, he went from "well, he couldn't take him out, his star is fading" to "he's still got it and can bring fans and excitement to any match." I think we'll see Margarito make a fight with Mosley in the next month or two. Berto may want him (and that's no slam dunk for Berto, by the way), but Margarito will see Mosley as a great marquee name to add to his record, not too great a risk and a good draw. The fight makes sense for Mosley too. Now that Margarito has Cotto's belt, Mosley can fight for the title again. Mosley lost to Cotto, so the odds are long on him beating Margarito, who himself beat Cotto...but that is a fight any realfightfan will tune in to see.

Boxing Scoring is a Joke (in Houston on 9/5/08)!

2008-09-07T20:52:00.004-04:00

Diaz v. Katsidis

Okay, so this may seem like a needless repetition of a truth to the casual observer of the fight game. However, while many occasional boxing fans routinely ride down boxing for it's corruption, and while there is indeed some truth to that well-worn belief...I've always considered the kind of "home cooking" that we see in olympic boxing if not exactly the exception, then at least not exactly the rule in professional boxing. That said, if it's true at all, certainly Saturday night's HBO undercard fight in Houston was the exception that proved the rule. Meanwhile, the main event was so thoroughly the polar opposite of home cooking that it seemed to prove another far more depressing point: boxing scoring is a joke.

The undercard fight between Houston's Rocky Juarez and Jorge Barrios was somewhat more than mildly entertaining. Juarez has been the opponent of choice for the elite level in his division, taking losses against three of the division's best fighters, amounting to the four losses on his record. With all due respect to Rocky, who is a class act in and out of the ring, those elite tests have seemed to drain him of the fire he displayed when I saw him take the first of those losses to Marco Antonio Barrera. Of course, he was an undefeated fighter then and that can sometimes make all the difference, but I've never seen him look the same since. On Saturday night he looked a step slow against an aggressive and tough, but wild fighter in Barrios. Juarez was clearly the superior technician, but that doesn't matter if you don't let your hands go. Barrios overwhelmed Juarez, throwing wildly and instead of taking advantage by countering up the middle every time with shorter punches, Juarez layed back too much. Barrios carried the fight on sheer aggressiveness.

Now...to Juarez' credit, by the tenth round, Barrios looked as if he'd punched himself out. That's not to say he stopped punching, but that he was no longer close to landing. As if by plan, Juarez started vigorously countering with the short hard punches straight up the middle that he should've been throwing all night long. Why he chose to ratchet up this strategy toward the 9th and 10th rounds, I can't say. By then, Barrios should have had no less than 6 or 7 of the first 9 rounds in the bank, solely on aggressiveness. But he didn't. When the scorecards were reviewed by HBO after the fight, Juarez was ahead on all three scorecards by a wide margin! Also, the referee in the ring has deducted two points from Barrios during the course of the fight for low blows. Neither looked legitimate in real time and upon replay, neither was worse than a non-damaging beltline shot. Juarez not only didn't look hurt...the first time, he seemed surprised that the point was being taken. However, even those deductions wouldn't explain the scorecards. Juarez should have been way behind at fight's end. Instead he was in a position to win. It felt like home cooking all the way.

Fortunately, it didn't matter. Juarez opened up an ugly gash in Barrios' right upper lip, reminiscent of Heath Ledger's recent Joker mock-up. The HBO team described it as "hard to watch" when the slow motion captured the blood spurting from Barrios' seemingly widened mouth. Lennox Lewis described this as resulting from Barrios taking a punch with his mouth hanging open. Obviously, the ringside physician stepped in and stopped the fight with just 8 seconds left in the 11th of 12 rounds. Lewis correctly observed that, if the fight had been allowed to continue, Barrios would have been "drinking his own blood." A TKO resulted and Juarez legitimately won what would have been a gross miscarriage of justice, had it lasted the full 12.

That said, in Rocky's defense (and he's easy to defend because he's a class act...and I've been guilty of only really watching the fighter I like...not in this case), his having waited to pounce until (arguably too) late in the fight did work: Barrios was clearly being battered. While I have no doubt that Barrios would have lasted until the 12th, I'm not at all certain he could've survived the 12th (I mean, if he'd not suffered that ugly fight-ending cut). All's well that ends well, right? Well, kinda...because the main event was still to come.

The main event featured Houston's own Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz against Micheal Katsidis, he of the trojan war helmet ring entrance, haymakers and face first style. Now, if both guys hadn't been diminished by their most recent respective fights, this promised to be a great fight. Both fighters had lost the zeroes behind their records in their last fights: Diaz to Nate "the galaxy warrior" Campbell and Katsidis to Joel Casamayor (by late round KO in a fight he was winning). Being defeated after getting into deep water in their division, as had just happened to both of these fighters, can be a spirit-crushing experience. Both of these guys had, after being touted as no less than a match (or more in Diaz' case) for their opposities, lost convincingly. Diaz lost his lightweight WBC title belt to Campbell when Campbell beat him at his own game. Campbell pressured the pressure fighter, outboxing the boxer. To Diaz' credit, he never gave up, but by the end of that fight, he was clearly the badly beaten man. Katsidis on the other hand led most of the way on the sluggish Casamayor, dropping Casamayor and imposing his hyper aggressive will on the Cuban...until Casamayor caught him flush, put him in trouble and finished him. Being KO'd, depending on the fighter, can be even more devastating than being thoroughly outboxed and punished, the way Diaz was. These circumstances made the fight all the more interesting a match. Would either fighter show signs of diminishment in the wake of a first loss? Neither did.

On paper, this was a great match. Diaz, with his go forward at-all-times volume puncher style against the heavy-handed lead-with-your-face style of Katsidis. If both came prepared and showed no signs of wear, it would surely be a barnburner. At the outset, like HBO's Max Kellerman, I too couldn't wait to see it even though it was just about to start. However, as it unfolded and the course of the fight became clear, I was reminded of the old maxim that a good boxer will beat a good brawler every time. Going in, I'd failed to give Diaz credit for the fighter he had showed himself to be before Nate Campbell fought the fight of his life to beat him. Diaz is not just a workrate fighter, he's a tactician. He uses range and proximity to his advantage and counters thoughtfully. He answers tactics with tactics and is aware of his location in the ring. To know the need for these kind of tactics is when sitting in front of the TV or when typing before a computer screen is one thing, but to do it at full speed with a puncher like Katsidis in your face is quite another. Diaz proved that he is 100% back from the Campbell loss.

Bottom line, Diaz is one hell of a good boxer. He had an answer for all of Katsidis' bullying tactics (most of which are legal, to Katsidis' credit) and Diaz never once allowed Katsidis to move him to the ropes or land unanswered. Diaz punched in combination, with shorter straighter punches. He beat Katsidis to the punch and deliberately turned him around and around the ring when Katsidis bull-rushed. It was a pleasure to watch for a realfightfan...at least for a few rounds. Then frankly, it got a little monotonous. With a fighter as skilled as Diaz, the odds that Katsidis would get to land the kind of fight-changing punch that put all the KOs on his record was pretty remote. Knowing that Diaz made his bones as a championship level workrate fighter who could put in 12 rounds of heavy volume punching routinely, there was virtually no chance that he would fade. He did not. He deflected everything that Katsidis had to offer and controlled the fight from start to finish.

While Katsidis fought valiantly, throwing far more frequently than Diaz, he landed far fewer punches than did Diaz and by fight's end, was clearly the more badly battered. That hadn't slowed him, but it looked like he could barely see out of his swollen eyes by fight's end. I had every round, except a close first, for Diaz. I should add that I'd picked Katsidis to win the fight, thinking that his aggressiveness and heavy hands, combined with the potential soul-draining beating administered to Diaz the last time out, would lead to a flash KO of Diaz. Even if it didn't, I figured on Katsidis' aggressiveness to wear the desire to fight out of Diaz. It didn't.

However... the fight I saw apparently wasn't seen the by the three ringside judges. Unbelievably, one (whose name I recall from past fights...Glen Hamada) had the fight for Katsidis 115-113. That score literally had my jaw hanging open as if unhinged. The next two, both for Diaz, were so close that they too had me staring numbly at the wrap-up, as Max Kellerman rightly intoned that this scoring was perhaps the worst he'd ever witnessed. Even the 116-112 and 115-113 scores for Diaz, giving him the split decision, were ludicrous. This fight was dull because it was a runaway! I cannot imagine what Hamada saw during rounds 8 through 12 when he gave them all to Katsidis! On my scorecard, in round eleven, I wrote "boxing clinic - not a mark on him (Diaz)". Meanwhile Katsidis kept advancing, being turned and pummeled with hammering short shots, his right eye blackening nastily.

What can I say? It hurts to say it about a sport I so enjoy, but boxing scoring is a joke.

Margarito Proves he is Unbreakable

2008-07-27T20:08:00.005-04:00

Well, I now finally see why Margarito has long been considered the most avoided fighter in his weight class. I couldn't see it just because he demolished Kermit Cintron twice...because he'd been outpointed by Paul Williams. But now I see it. I see why no one would want to fight him. He is unbreakable.

See...Paul Williams didn't really try to fight him. He tried to outwork him...and he did. A fast starter whom Margarito clearly underestimated, Williams put 5 or 6 rounds of a 12 round fight in the bank before Margarito really got his motor running. Even then, Williams was punching Margarito so often that his workrate style trumped Margarito's own. That's quite a feat and one I doubt we'll get to see Williams duplicate because after defeating Margarito...who'd want to fight him again?

Now...Miguel Cotto was 32-0 coming in. He is one of the hardest hitters pound-for-pound that I've ever witnessed. As he's progressed, I've watched fighter after fighter wilt under the weight of his fists. Some men just hit harder than others and he is one of the former. He's the kind of fighter who lands an equal number of blows as his opponent, but by round 4 or 5, the opponent looks like he's been through a meat grinder. His body shots buckle knees and his head shots wobble and drop championship level fighters. Shane Mosley withered under his attack. A game Zab Judah was worn to a nub and dispatched. Floyd Mayweather retired rather than have to face him.

Antonio Margarito meanwhile came in at 36-5. With that record, he seemed beatable. He was an 5-8 underdog at fight time. The predictions (including my own of a decision for Cotto) looked dead on as he was outboxed round after round. By the end of the fight, he was way behind on my card, even as he pressed the fight against the constantly retreating Cotto. That's because for his aggressiveness, he ate clean hard shot after clean hard shot. These were tee off hooks and straight rights flush to the jaw. Each one of these are shots that Cotto had used to drop lesser men. Unbelievably, he walked right through them. And he didn't walk through ten or twenty over the first 8 rounds or so...he walked through at least a hundred absolutely crisp head shots, thrown with bad intentions by what I still consider the hardest hitter in the division. He wore down Cotto by proving to him that he wasn't going to be hurt by being hit in the head. I think he broke Cotto's will, not by hitting him, but by walking through so many of his best shots. Quite frankly, it's an outcome that shocked me.

The reason it shocked me so thoroughly is that, given what I've seen Cotto's power do to lesser men (still championship level fighters, mind you), I didn't think that any fighter could absorb that kind of attack and look nearly as unfazed as Margarito looked as he followed Cotto around the ring, pressing the fight until he broke Cotto's will. To his credit, HBO announcer Emmanuel Steward kept saying he felt Margarito was gaining momentum at a time when I only saw the man absorbing punishment. I sometimes think that Steward hedges his bets, but this time I was wrong. HBO's Jim Lampley and Steward both wondered aloud whether Cotto could keep up the pace that he was forced to set in the first several rounds of counterpunching and dancing away as Margarito advanced determinedly. They implied that it was Cotto, who was landing dozens of hard shots to Margarito's head and slipping away from trouble, who stood to wear down from the pace. That seemed absurd to me. Clearly, I was wrong.

It took until round 7 on my card for Margarito to win a round (though I appear to have been alone in that, judging by the official scorecards, read by Lampley at fight's end). I only gave rounds 7 and 8 to Margarito before he took Cotto down by TKO in the 11th. Going into the 11th, I therefore had it 98-92 for Cotto. I still feel like that was the fight I saw, but I fear my regard for Cotto had me only watching him. While my scorecard often differs dramatically from HBO "unofficial ringside scorer" Harold Lederman (and it did this time too as he had it 95-95), I rarely am concerned about that. However, the official judges' scorecards read 96-94 Margarito, 96-94 Margarito and 95-95 even. That makes me think that they saw a lot that I failed to see. Of the 8 rounds that I gave to Cotto, I saw 4 of them as close rounds, so I imagine all of those must have gone the other way on the official cards. All of that said, it's academic.

Cotto, visibly hurt in the last ten seconds of a 10th round that he had otherwise pretty cleary won (I gave it to him), came out in the 11th trying to buy himself time. Margarito sensed it and pressed his advantage, raining down blows. It was too much too early in the round for Cotto. He not only had become battered and bloody the way he'd rendered so many of his own opponents, I think that he had been bewildered for a few rounds as to why his clean head shots hadn't slowed Margarito's attack. That bewilderment turned to despair when he realized that not only could he not hurt him, but he couldn't take a moment off to gather himself. Margarito was relentless. After a taking a knee twice in the 11th, Cotto's own corner was on the ring apron with a towel to stop the punishment. Not getting carried out on a stretcher may count for something, but the proud Cotto left the ring quickly and refused HBO's effort to interview him.

What remains to be seen is whether Cotto, after having humbled so many good and great fighters similarly, can bounce back. Some fighters are never the same after discovering that not only can they not chop down every opponent they face, but that they themselves are vulnerable. Cotto was rightly judged to be absolutely in his prime. He was not diminished by time or trial. He is 27 years old, was undefeated and physically peaking. To be defeated in that prime can be devastating for a fighter who had good reason to believe he was the best in the world. That said, I hope he seeks a rematch.

If he does...what can he do differently? Let's start off with the truth: there may be nothing he can do that will beat Margarito. What Jim Lampley referred to part of the way through the fight as Margarito's "legendary beard" may actually have understated it. I've got to believe that if Margarito can walk through that many of Miguel Cotto's best head shots, then there is no one who can knock him out...or even hurt him. At least not the way Cotto tried.

How to do it differently? Well...for one thing...it's a mystery to me why Cotto seemed to not even try to use what is widely touted as his best asset: his body attack. I've seen him crumple tough fighters with a single body shots. It could be that he found Margarito's head such an easy target that he never even thought to meaningfully try. It could be that Margarito's pressure combined with the availability of his head made it impossible ...or at least very difficult. Still, that doesn't adequately explain to me why Cotto didn't even really try. The old boxing maxim "kill the body and the head will die" seemed to be Cotto's stock in trade. He's always been a fighter who went to the body in order to diminish his opponent. This time he didn't. Would it work? hard to say. Certainly, we now know what doesn't: head shots. I guess Cotto could have asked the arguably equally heavy handed Kermit Cintron, who has wilted twice under Margarito's rock headed pressure (and to no one else's...ever). I could imagine Cintron sitting at home, watching the fight on TV and feeling vindicated: "see??? you can't hurt him!! his head's like a rock!!!"

In any case, there's a new sheriff in town and his name is Antonio Margarito. If you want to take his badge, don't bring a bazooka to shoot him in the head because he'll walk right through it. You better come prepared for a long night, be so well conditioned as to be able to stay away and outbox him for 12 rounds ...oh...and don't lose focus or you'll be staring up at the lights. I wonder if Oscar De La Hoya has one last such fight in him. Let's hope so. Margarito just legitimately made himself the man who beat the man (that Mayweather retired so he wouldn't have to fight...either of them, actually) and this sets up as a storybook way for Oscar to go out. Bet he does. Oscar beats Margarito, in my judgment. He can outbox him...as long as he doesn't lose focus. Good thing for us, that's just the kind of challenge that Oscar likes. Margarito all but called him out at fight's end. Let's hope they make that fight.

Abraham, Arreola and Berto arrive with a Bang

2008-06-23T20:57:00.004-04:00

Arthur Abraham jumps from relative obscurity into the mix of middleweights, Chris Arreola separates himself from the pack of contending heavyweights and Andre Berto announces his presence with authority in the welterweight division. On Saturday night June 21rst, 2008, punchers carried the day.

Chris Arreola v. Chazz Witherspoon - I'd watched Arreola once before and wasn't that impressed and to be honest, I'm still not...but he did show up to fight. In this battle of young unbeaten American heavyweights, I favored Witherspoon, mostly because I recalled being underwhelmed by Arreola's simple style when I last saw him and being impressed with Witherspoon's pedigree and boxing ability when I saw him. It just goes to show that boxing agility and ability goes only so far. It was well put when Witherspoon's fight plan was discussed and the commentary was "everybody's got a plan until they get hit...." Arreola must indeed hit hard because he put Witherspoon back on his heels from the start and he kept coming. He's a plodder who wades in and if I'm to be convinced that he is applying some craft, he's going to have to go deeper with someone who can take a punch. Witherspoon clearly can't.

Now...I'm going to say something mean here...so get ready. Chris Arreola's mom surely loves his mug, but I'm betting she's the only one. This guy looks like he fell from the mighty oak of ugly trees, hit a trampoline at the bottom and hit every branch going back up too. I tend to think there's no way this guy can get but better looking the more beatings he takes...so I guess there is real upside to the fact he seems to lead with his face. If he ever gets to be heavyweight champion, maybe he'll be a matinee idol for all the flush shots he's going to take on the way up. So we'll have that to look forward to.

But he can punch. I guess that's going to be enough for now. When he advances a little further, he's going to find that he can't chop down opponents with the ease that he did Witherspoon...but that's okay. He KO'd Witherspoon in round 3 after knocking him down three times going back to round 2. He walked forward, hit hard and showed a finisher's instinct. God help us though if his is the face of the future of American heavyweight boxing.

Andre Berto v. Mickey Rodriguez - Rodriguez, whom I'd never heard of, came in at 23-2 and looked to have some boxing skills...but he never really got to show them. Andre Berto is very fast. Did I say fast? I mean very fast. He started slow (but still won every round, on my card), but by halfway through the second round started to catch his stride and by the fourth was hitting Rodriguez at will, even toying with him. Rodriguez had a significant reach advantage and clearly some technical skill, but he was badly outmatched. Once Berto got his legs fully under him, he was throwing in rapid combination and jumping in and out. Some of his flurries were wildly impressive, like the five left hooks thrown in succession in about a seconds elapsed time. He also showed some pinpoint punching prowess, with his accuracy matched only by my alliterative skill.

But he's young since I'm being unfair and overcritical, Berto wasted a lot of punches and started slow. He should now get a fight with a big name to get his feet wet. With Mayweather out of the picture, the Cotto/Margarito match looms largest and Berto would be in deep with either of them. He's probably not ready. Paul Williams? maybe. Carlos Quintana? Definitely. How about Berto makes his bones with Kermit Cintron? Okay...it's settled...that's the match I want to see. If he can get by Cintron, then he's ready for anyone. And that makes me wonder in turn if Cintron will now be reduced to a gatekeeper fighter! If so, that's quite a gatekeeper...but maybe a test fighter who is that good is appropriate for a division this deep.

Arthur Abraham v. Edison Miranda - Now, I should cop to a truth. If I had written a prediction on this fight, I would have called it for Miranda. Knowing what happened in their previous fight, I would have predicted Miranda by KO. I have (or had?) a high regard for Miranda as a puncher and as a tough guy. The heavy-handed Columbian native lost a close decision to Abraham two years previous after breaking Abraham's jaw in two places and after losing multiple points for low blows. Whatever credit I could accord Abraham for gutting out the decision in spite of the alarmingly disfiguring fractures in that fight was tempered by the knowledge that, as he always had before in his unbeaten career, he fought a home game. He was far more likely to get a decision and get points deducted at home. This time (for the first time) Abraham was fighting in America.

Miranda meanwhile had beaten Howard Eastman soundly, thrashed an intimidating Allan Green and fulfilled the worst nightmares of the Contender's David Banks. He'd even looked very tough for Kelly Pavlik to handle, until Pavlik walked him backwards and seemingly solved him that way. Pavlik had commented post-fight that they'd correctly speculated that Miranda, as a very aggressive come-forward puncher, wouldn't fight well if forced to fight moving backward. At the time, I recall writing that while Miranda seemed indeed solved by Pavlik, the solution would likely prove so dangerous to nearly every other fighter in the division that the cure would almost always kill the patient.

When I saw Abraham come out and fight in spots, move laterally instead of trying to move Miranda backwards and adopt a thoroughly different approach than Pavlik, I was certain he was doomed. I was wrong. First of all, I guess Abraham can punch a little. Certainly after being deposited on his back three times before the 4th round stoppage, Miranda agrees. Now...I tend to think that maybe Miranda had a bad night and maybe he's been softened up a bit. But then, don't tell David Banks that. Miranda highlight reeled him through the ropes not long ago. So ...I guess Abraham can punch a bit.

Having read about him and having seen his ranking, I tuned in to see if maybe Pavlik has someone to challenge him. Maybe he does. Abraham is a counterpuncher and clearly a pretty effective one. He remains unbeaten and after taking that disfiguring beaten against Miranda in the first tilt, he clearly has a chin (what's left of it). Can he give Pavlik a run for his money? We'll see...but he definitely jumped into the consciousness of this realfightfan by dominating a fighter whom I regarded as a very tough customer.

Pavlik Dominated, Williams Rebounds and Mora Finally Emerges

2008-06-08T22:52:00.005-04:00

Another fun night for realfightfans on Saturday June 7th, 2008! Let's start with Kelly Pavlik defending the WBC middleweight title against Gary Lockett.

What a pleasure to watch this fighter work. Now...I should add that poor Welshman Gary Lockett having been served up as a mandatory by the WBC seemed almost unfair, but Pavlik deserved a break. Having dispatched the still widely feared and heavy handed Edison Miranda by KO, then taken the middleweight title by KO from the undefeated Jermaine Taylor, then defended the win (if not the title, since it was fought 8 pounds higher at Taylor's request) by decision...Pavlik deserved a walkover. We just hoped that the workmanlike demeanor he displayed in his rise to glory would not abandon him once he stood atop the heap. Indeed it did not. Kelly Pavlik is every bit the "Godzilla" of the division he was acknowledged to be by Max Kellerman of HBO (in a bit of excellent off-the-cuff commentary by Kellerman, when throwing it back to Jim Lampley, after Pavlik said he'd "fight Godzilla" if his promoter told him to).

Clearly prepared, Pavlik dismantled the shorter Brit without much seeming difficulty. Dropping those right hands in behind his long jab, he buckled Lockett's knees in the first round and had him taking a knee three times in the two successive rounds until trainer Enzo Calzaghe wisely threw in the towel in the third to save the courageous, but badly outmatched Lockett from having to endure any further beating. Pavlik exploited his reach advantage practically perfectly and post-fight was the same class act we're getting used to seeing. He gave Lockett respect that he may not really deserve at this level and humbly said he'd fight whomever they put in front of him.

Interestingly, he all but called out Joe Calzaghe. Now...we all know that Calzaghe is on his "Champions Tour", having just dispatched Bernard Hopkins and apparently setting up Roy Jones as his next mark. There's no way Calzaghe wasn' t watching this fight because he's not only a Welshman himself, but his dad is Lockett's trainer. Would I love to see that fight? absolutely. Will Calzaghe take that fight? Not a chance. Pavlik is too technically sound, hits too hard, is too yound and is therefore too great a threat to a man who is now taking his tour of the best fighters whose reputations now far exceed their skills. I'd love to see it, though.

Moving on to Carlos Quintana v. Paul Williams II. I settled in for a long fight, scorecard at the ready. I figured that I'd see round 13 after seeing Quintana time Williams so well in the first 12 round tilt where Quintana not only clearly outworked and timed the until-then seemingly unsolvable (and then-undefeated WBO champion) Williams. Recall that until Quintana exposed him, Williams was by all accounts the most avoided man in the division next to Antonio Margarito...until Williams beat Margarito! Quintana, having lost to Miguel Cotto by KO (for his only loss up to that point), was sure to be easy pickings for Williams. When Quintana outworked and so thoroughly out-timed Williams, it seemed Williams was solved. Many a fighter has been destroyed just this way. Their invincibility shattered, they recede only to re-emerge as lesser beatable versions of their once-formidable selves. Take Ricky Hatton, for example (though to be fair, that whole story is not yet writ).

I recall writing after the first fight that Williams seemed to have abandoned the super-workrate style that made him so difficult for anyone to handle. I thought this was because not only might he have changed his strategy (inexplicably), but because Quintana proved that even a long-armed, talented and super workrate fighter can be timed out and shut down. In the first fight, Quintana never took a breath, was at 100% the whole way and took every opportunity Williams gave him. He dominated by crisp volume counterpunching.

This time was different, though...and that's not to say that I perceived Williams taking a different tack. I'm not sure he did. He was wary as round one began and was measuring Quintana, preparing for a long match and again not jacking up his workrate. I again foresaw a 12 round marathon and the only question would be whether Quintana was as razor sharp this time as last. He clearly was not. Williams floored him 2 minutes into the first round and rising on wobbly legs, Quintana did not have any time to steady himself. Williams waded in and finished him at 2:15 of the first round on a TKO stoppage.

For those of us who saw Williams as one of the serious, tough-to-handle up and comers in the division, we see vindication. Williams had an off night against Quintana the first time, right? But there's a flaw in that reasoning. Not to detract from Williams' spectacular revenge, it could just as easily be explained by Quintana's failure to take Williams as seriously this time around as he did the first time through. The first time, Quintana was hyper-sharp, going in against the undefeated champion who'd just decisioned the universally recognized tough guy Margarito for the title. Quintana was trying to redeem himself from an ugly KO loss to Cotto too. He was high as a kite. He had an almost perfect night, repeatedly timing Williams between his punches, despite Williams' significant reach advantage. If he failed to come in that high this time, he could get beat...and I think that's exactly what happened. Of course, flip that around and Williams still redeems himself immediately against a good boxer with a glass jaw who beat him the first time around by decision and had to fight the best fight of his life that night to do it. That sounds fair, actually...Williams deserves that kind of credit. He avenged his only loss in spectacular fashion.

And now I'm left only to wonder if we'll see the workrate Williams who beat Margarito the next time out...or the "heavy handed" Williams who lost to Quintana, then KO'd him to avenge the loss. I'd like to see the workrate Williams who throws with bad intentions every now and then. That's what it's going to take to gain further position in this super-deep welterweight division which is, for my money, the most exciting division in boxing.

Finally, to the Vernon Forrest v Sergio Mora fight for Forrest's WBC junior welterweight title or as I like to call it...maybe the Contender turned out one talent after all. Now...to be candid, I have to admit that I wrote my prediction on my scorecard before the fight: "Forrest destroys Mora." I was wrong. I had the fight 116-113 for Mora and the official judges had it 114-114 even and 115-113 and 116-112 for Mora. I was loathe to give it Mora, frankly...as unfair as that may be. I hate his style. He reminds me of a young Bernard Hopkins, maybe with less power.

Forrest was classy in the post-fight, refusing to say that he had an off night, giving Mora credit for fighting with a difficult style. That jump-in-and-punch-and-hug style won Bernard Hopkins 20 straight title defenses and punched his ticket to the hall of fame...and nobody wants to buy tickets to see it. It's ugly. But what are you going to do? If we take Forrest at his word, then a long-armed, hard-hitting, sharp-punching champion was outfoxed and outboxed by the next likely long-reigning champion. Certainly, if Mora is to be believed, that's the case.

Notwithstanding his extremely mediocre resume, he had the audacity in the post-fight interview to say this was a "C+" performance. If that's true, he almost can't lose ...because Vernon Forrest, even on an off night (which I definitely think this was...where Forrest came in way over-confident and underprepared for this style, thinking his style and strength would dominate), is head and shoulders above gate-keeper type fighters. Forrest is a championship level fighter at 154 pounds. Mora beat him.

But he beat him by outworking him and by jumping in and punching. Forrest abandoned his jab, not seeming to try with it and miss, but abandoned it altogether. He was seemingly (although surely actually not) content to let Mora dictate the fight. It was an inside fighters fight and instead of punishing Mora for coming in and concentrating on timing him coming in, he let him in and tried to punish him for it. Mora deserves credit for being a better inside, dirty, turning, jumping-in fighter than I thought he was. And that's it. Unless "The Latin Snake" indeed did turn in the C+ performance he claims, he'll be exposed soon enough. Forrest took him lightly, I believe. Mora has now earned the right not to be taken lightly be the next elite level fighter he faces. That will be the true test of whether or not the Contender has indeed turned out a serious talent or simply a fighter who cherry-picked the right fight on the right night.

A Byrd Flies Too Low, Malignaggi the Idiot Rasta and Much More...

2008-05-31T22:21:00.006-04:00

This post will allow me to hold forth on all of this month's boxing at once. That I should have updated more contemporaneously is manifest, that I will therefore have to offer a more cursory treatment than I otherwise would have is equally so, but that it really doesn't matter all that much because no one reads this blog is all the more so. I plod intermittently on however because I don't write it for anyone but me and frankly, I enjoy reading it later. I also actually enjoy the writing of it immensely and the definite upside of no one ever seeing it (apart from my long suffering and ever faithful and patient wife) is that there is no pressure to update. The boxing world will wait as long as necessary for my commentary. I stand as quite the prima donna in that regard.

Byrd Went Low Too Fast

This was quite a boxing story. Former legitimate heavyweight champ Chris Byrd drops over 40 pounds (after taking a pounding from de facto champ Wladimir Klitschko) and skips cruiserweight altogether to come in at 174 for a fight under the light heavy 175 limit. Looking at Byrd, I had to do a double take. He looked like a different man. Having lost 20% or so of one's body weight tends to impact one's appearance and he was no exception. His face was practically gaunt by comparison to his former self, but he still looked good, cut and fit in the pre-fight tapes. His upper body was still relatively intact and his arms didn't look wasted. It wasn't until he got in the ring that something immediately looked wrong. Even before the bell, his legs were noticeably emaciated. He was standing on sticks and as a result, his body was not proportionate at all.

I'll admit though that I had confidence that this was going to be a walkthrough for Byrd. He wouldn't schedule such a fight against a guy who could actually test him, would he? After all, he was a headliner for years and while never a huge draw, he was always on the short list of heavys a fighter had to contend with to contend for the recognized heavyweight championship. Even when Antonio Tarver in the FNF studio predicted his defeat, attesting to the skill of what should have been just an opponent, I chalked it up to Tarver's penchant for talking down peers to pump up his own worth. I was wrong.

After the first bell, it quickly became clear that Byrd seemed rusty. Considering he is a fighter I'd never seen look remotely rusty before, this was obviously a problem. He wasn't moving his head and slipping punches the way he was able to do 40 or 50 pounds northward. He began being beaten to the punch and the arms he used to bat away punches from very big men were almost hesitant in the face of his 175 pound opponent. He seemed uncertain and confused, as if he couldn't get off the blocks and he started to take punishment for it. I waited for the tide to turn, for Byrd to get his legs under him, but he never did. He finally effectively threw in the towel on himself deep into the fight, ever the consummate professional. Realizing he was taking a beating that wasn't slowing down and that he wasn't able to stop, he pulled the plug on the experiment.

Did he come down too fast? Did he come down too far? Has be absorbed too much punishment and aged right before our eyes, such that questions one and two don't matter? I would say probably yes, probably yes and probably yes. That said, I think he can still probably contend in the sub 200 pound cruiserweight division. I suspect he saw the potential at the 175 level and thought if he could pounce into their midst, he could draw some real dollar interest and stay relevant. That opportunity isn't nearly as realistic at cruiser, where the biggest attraction just went northward (David Haye). 175 offers opportunities with names like Roy Jones, Bernard Hopkins, Kelly Pavlik and the list goes on. Ask anyone other than the most hardcore fan the name of a cruiserweight and they'd be hard pressed to come up with an Enzo Maccaranelli.

Should Byrd jump "up" to cruiser? Well...he's not one to be discouraged easily. This attempt displayed that. He was coming off a real beating at the hands of the younger Klitschko and while you can chalk that up to a horrible fight plan (a little man determined to push around a much bigger man), no one who saw that fight could say that either Byrd could be easily discouraged or that his having come back with such a unique tilt at continuing relevance was anything other than remarkably resilient. But...should he come back? I say yes. He is a very skilled boxer. He dropped too far, too fast. He underestimated the speed and skills of this opponent and more importantly, he underestimated the erosion the weight loss would have on his own speed and the general upgrade in top level speed he would encounter at this much lighter weight. He probably also underestimated how hard they still hit at 175. He can recalibrate, bulk up considerably and still make it under 200 very easily. Is cruiserweight a division worthy of his consideration? Well...it might automatically become worthy of some attention by virtue of his entrance into it...something he should have realized before going down too far, too fast.

Paulie Malignaggi is a Bonehead

To his credit, I suspect "the magic man" would be the first to admit this. I cannot honestly imagine what he was thinking entering the ring with a head full of whippet braided dreadlocks so long that they immediately repeatedly lashed him around his face as he moved and impeded his vision. The first round was laughable as he began to take shot after shot because he clearly couldn't see them coming because of his own hair! How could he have not taken that into account during the run up to the fight? while he was getting his hair braided for the 5+ hours it must have taken?

Over the next seven rounds, the failed tie-backs of the hair were absurd theater and the literal haircut between the 8th and 9th rounds was surreal. If his opponent had been the more deserving Ndgoudjo instead of the sure thing, already once beat N'dou, Malignaggi would have really been made to pay. After all, Ndgoudjo beat him last time and dropped the decision. Imagine if Malignaggi had fought even worse. We didn't have to imagine that, at least. Malignaggi did indeed fight worse. Worse than he'd fought against N'dou the first time (when he'd beaten him) and worse than when he'd lost to Ndgoudjo and been awarded a robbery of a decision. N'dou was his perfectly predictable self, walking forward and not moving his head. Game, but supremely unimaginative. Malignaggi could beat him on his worst day...and he did. I had it 115-113 for "the Marginal Man", while the three official judges had it 115-114 (for N'dou) and 116-112 and 116-113 for Malignaggi, who slunk away with the split decision.

After the fight, he admitted that the hair was a "disaster" and said he'd broken his right hand in the sixth round, a fact evidently later confirmed by post-fight x-rays. While N'dou fouled almost constantly, rabbit punching so much that it was rather shocking that no points were taken, I cannot recall any particular punch where, for example, Malignaggi bounced a fist off a shoulder awkwardly or where N'dou dipped his head offering an odd and hard target. In other words, if Malignaggi can break his hand on a routine punch, then it's going to happen again. And we all know it's happened before because he's had multiple surgeries on that hand. So there's no reason to think it won't happen again. It will. Malignaggi says he'll be ready for Hatton and this was supposed to be a showcase to convince British and American fans to tune in. What we got was an embarrassing display of what must surely be being called American buffoonery with a hail of excuses afterward. Even a diminished Hatton should overrun Malignaggi....if Hatton isn't a shot fighter.

Is Ricky Hatton Half the Man He Used To Be?

Let's start with the fact that I gave Hatton 9 of 12 rounds. How bad could he have been, right? Well...he's not that bad, but he's not the Hatton I saw fight just two years ago. Whether that Hatton of old (he's all of 29 now, right?) is gone forever remains to be seen. After an ugly first round, Hatton seemed to remember the fact that he likes to fight in the second round and after dropping the third, he started slowly to put his punches together until round 9 where he finally began to look like the Hatton of old, putting combinations together and coming in full steam. Then he got rocked in the tenth. You could almost see a highlight reel of his KO loss to Mayweather running through his head as he battled for a breather....then came the referee swooping in and giving him just that. In as blatant a case of hometowning as I've ever seen, the ref broke the fighters for no apparent reason, made a slow show of sending a baffled Lazcano to a neutral corner, then seemingly realized Hatton's laces were untied and proceeded to give Hatton's deliberately fumble-fingered cornermen all the time they needed to re-tie the apparently well-timed offending laces. With his feet back under him thanks to an at least minute-long impromptu breather, Hatton was a new fighter. He lasted out the round, took the last two and the horrible prospect of the monstrous and raucus "Ricky Hatton wonderland"-singing ale-soaked crowd being treated to a 10th round KO of their hero was averted. I can't help but think that even Lazcano might have been best served by this chicanery because he might not have escaped the ring with his life, if we recall the way Marvin Hagler was treated by a similarly drunken Brit crowd.

Now...I really like Ricky Hatton. He's got an aggressive, if roughhousing boxing style that a connossieur can appreciate because while he leads too much with his face, his defense is offense and, at his best, he is a slipping and attacking machine. He's also so very likeable and professional in and out of the ring. But... we all know that fighters like him have a shelf life. No one in this hurt business can lead with their face for long and can last for long. Has Ricky Hatton seen his best days? Can he rebound from the KO loss to Mayweather? Does this win count as that rebound? I would say probably yes, probably yes and definitely not. Of course, it all depends on what rebound means. He'll never fight Mayweather again, not that he might not want to, so having come so far (to 44-0) before suffering his first loss (a dramatic KO) might have psychically damaged him too greatly to ever allow him to bounce back to the swagger with which he entered that ring.

He's admitted that the KO loss devastated him emotionally. That admission is what makes us like him. That it's true may speak to another truth about him too...that now that he knows he's beatable and can be knocked out...might he not again plow through barrages of punches quite as invincibly as he did before? absolutely. He can be knocked out. He knows it. In fact, ironically he may not even hold Mayweather in such high regard as to believe that he's been KO'd by a superior fighter. That may be what is weighing him down. Can he shed that weight and all of the other doubts he's now carrying? Well...clearly he can to some extent, because despite some shaky moments, he did carry the fight effectively to Lazcano, legitimately winning on my card and on all three official cards. Can he beat Paulie Malignaggi? That may be a much closer fight than it should be. Mostly because Malignaggi's ten-cent head has him fighting up and down to the perceived levels of his opponents and Malignaggi will come in high as a kite for Hatton...and for Hatton, it may sadly now just be another pay day on the way to his eventual preferred place: a seat at the back of the pub, recounting for all to hear, the exploits of his rise to glory and his dispatch of Kostya Tzu.

I hope not, Ricky. There's good fight left in you. Let's see it, eh?

Delahoya Outboxes Forbes: More Than a Sparring Session, Less Than Mayweather

2008-05-04T09:55:00.005-04:00

This time, Oscar deserves the credit he gets. Saturday May 3rds tune-up fight, Oscar's first non-pay-per-view fight since 2002, went almost exactly according to plan. It only could have been better for him if he'd knocked Forbes out...something that he knew probably wouldn't happen coming in. Stevie "2 Pound" Forbes had never, as the HBO analysts repeated exhaustively, been down let alone out in his 11 year career. That Forbes may have avoided taking chances in order to preserve that string is legitimate commentary, but to characterize Forbes as having a sparring partner's mentality, as the HBO team did repeatedly late in the fight, is really unfair to Forbes. He came to win, but this time...so did Oscar.

Employing his jab to great effect all night, Delahoya looked relaxed and in great shape at 150 pounds. He fought with energy deep into this non-title, but championship length 12 round bout. He bounced on his toes, moved laterally pretty well and pulled the trigger, not waiting to counter. But then...he could afford to do that against an opponent who'd knocked out fewer than ten of the 30 plus opponents he'd beaten.

Stevie Forbes of Contender finale fame last held a title at 130 pounds and while he lost that title for failure to make weight against Daniel Santos, that doesn't mean he can't box. He can. In fact, he's a highly skilled defensive fighter who is comfortable in the ring and he showed it. Even on this largest stage against the biggest superstar in the sport, Forbes was loose. He showboated at times, never really looked thoroughly overmatched and responded to Delahoya when challenged, flurrying and landing. Delahoya, though he won almost every round...looked like he'd been in a fight by the night's end.

All of that said, Oscar chose his opponent well and he deserves credit not only for that, but for recognizing that if he didn't train to box well and show up in shape, he would get embarrassed. He fulfilled the promise he clearly made to himself: I'll challenge myself to get in the kind of shape it takes to beat a championship level fighter that I can only lose to if I fail to meet my own challenge. It's hard not to be impressed by that. It shows Oscar's inner drive and gives us hope that he will fight a little differently against Mayweather, Jr. this next time.

Oscar was clearly in great shape this time out. Let's start there. He didn't fade or slow, except perhaps for a linear minute in the final round, which can be forgiven (against Forbes). He moved and pursued (and could afford to against Forbes) and used his left jab well. But...every time he returned to his corner, it seemed as if trainer Floyd Mayweather, Sr. was imploring him to jab more...and he should have. Frankly, he could have fought better and while that would have meant turning into a one-trick pony most of the night...he should have. He was landing his jab at will. Forbes had no answer for it. Oscar mixed in other punches and dropped his lead hand at times and if he showed a failing, that was it. There was no reason to do it because Forbes was eating that jab all night long.

Of course, that is because beating Forbes is not the goal. Preparing for the Mayweather, Jr. rematch is...and that is the reason to work that jab all the more. Oscar used that jab to great effect in the first half of the Mayweather fight...then stopped throwing it. Does he become bored with it? Is controlling the opponent too boring for Oscar? I can't help but wonder if, once he gets his opponent under control, his confidence or instincts take over and forces him to try to punish or finish his opponent. He has to overcome that instinct if he's going to beat Mayweather. That's why Forbes was a good test...because, like Mayweather, Jr. (albeit to an only slightly lesser extent) he can be controlled by an aggressive jab...and like Mayweather, Jr., if Oscar abandoned the jab...Forbes would punish him for it. Of course, the beauty of Forbes as a hand-picked opponent is that he's good enough to demonstrate the principle, but not strong enough to meaningfully punish Delahoya for the errors of his ways.

Let's hope Oscar learns the lesson hidden in this tune-up. It would seem that he should... because it played out exactly as he'd planned it. With Mayweather, Sr. stressing the jab so constantly, it shows that the trainer has his head where it needs to be. Whether Oscar will get the message completely enough remains to be seen.

As for the fight, I had it scored the same as two of the three ringside judges: 119-109 for Oscar. The third judge gave every round to Oscar. I saw four total rounds close enough to call close, with only the 4th and the 8th really qualifying. I gave Forbes the 8th. While he came to fight, the reach disadvantage cost him and he showed defensive and occasional offensive brilliance, but it was too intermittent. He wasn't faster than Delahoya (but then neither was Mayweather, Jr. faster per se, than Delahoya) and so he ate a lot of jabs. Delahoya picked off a lot of punches and countered well, keeping Forbes defensive most of the fight.

As for HBO's telecast...getting the fight for "free" was great, but the commentators did a marginal job. There were some astute observations, like Steward pointing out that Delahoya's late-career proficiency at picking off punches with his gloves is borne of Mayweather, Sr.'s philosophy and training style and that Forbes was a longtime "hundreds of rounds" sparring partner of the Mayweather camp. But... I was put off by their denigrating Forbes as a sparring partner quality fighter. I so completely disagree with that, based on the performance, that it grated on me for the entire second half of the fight as they flogged that premise to death, agreeing with one another and re-iterating it. In my opinion, Forbes clearly came to fight and if Oscar hadn't shown up thoroughly ready to outbox him and outlast him, Forbes would have had a real chance to decision Oscar.

The head nods that Jim Lampley pointed out as those of a sparring partner, I've seen hundreds of times before and noone was then accused of lacking competitive fire. It's taking an observation and combining it with a preconception, then beating the resulting conclusion to death. But more distastefully, at least to me, was that it was a disservice to a fighter who showed up ready to box and did a better than passable job against one of the best fighters of his generation. Noone can accuse Stevie Forbes of being one of the best boxers of his generation, but it's unfair to observe that he's phoning it in when he's outmatched by a fighter who indeed is one of those elite few.

Calzaghe v. Hopkins - Exactly What It Was Supposed To Be

2008-04-21T22:08:00.005-04:00

I didn't post before this fight because I knew I'd written a prediction about it about two months ago. I didn't go back to read it before watching the fight to avoid polluting my scoring with that prediction. I'll excerpt my prediction here:

"Now...the big question is: will Calzaghe's workrate style pose a problem for Hopkins? Heck, yes! Now...I can't help but wonder if Hopkins sees something we don't because on paper this is not a good fight for him. It may simply be that there's no better fight left out there for Hopkins.... Has it enticed Hopkins in over his head? I think so. But then maybe at this stage and with his hall of fame credentials well in hand, Hopkins simply doesn't care.While Hopkins' style remains intact at his age, that's because it doesn't rely on quickness as much as it does guile and control of pace and position. Hopkins punches and ties up, he shoulders and butts and turns. All of this can be negated by an exceptionally accurate volume puncher with sound boxing skills. If there ever such a fighter, it's Joe Calzaghe. ... Calzaghe isn't just fighting a big fight. He's fighting for his legacy...to stay undefeated. He's fighting for a claim to a level of boxing immortality that Hopkins can no longer aspire to. He won't give up his "0" easily. He won't give it up without a fight. In the end, I don't think he'll give it up at all. Calzaghe by decision 116-112."

Well...except for that "flash knockdown" (Calzaghe's words) in the first round, the above could just as easily have been written about the fight afterward. In fact, on my card the knockdown making it a 10-8 Hopkins first round is the only thing standing between me and a perfect prediction (relative to my own card). I had it 116-111, exactly the same as Chuck Giampa the tie-breaking (at least in the order they were announced) ringside judge. That Adelaide Byrd scored the fight 114-113 for Hopkins (making it a split decision) is pretty unreal. I saw only four of the nine rounds that I gave Calzaghe as close rounds and three of those rounds would have had to be called for Hopkins to yield the result that judge Byrd came up with. Meanwhile, of the three that went Hopkins' way on my card, two were close with one of those being too close to call.

In other words, of six total close rounds, judge Byrd had to give five to Hopkins. That seems to be bias, plain and simple. Now...even if we assume that judge Byrd made the mistake of only watching Hopkins...wouldn't she still have seen Calzaghe hitting him with significantly greater frequency? I suppose the counterargument is that the more "significant shots" were landed by Hopkins, but that argument falls flat in the face of the full pursuit that Calzaghe had to implement to force Hopkins to fight. And whatever else it is, a boxing match is supposed to be a fight. The third judge had it for Joe 115-112, a score that is definitely well within reason.

Now...I found myself fighting my own prejudice against Hopkins' single counterpunch and hug style and I had to do it over Max Kellerman's constant genuflecting before the genius of Hopkins' sage "energy conserving" style. Kellerman is generally an astute commentator, but he missed the mark badly in this tilt. He seems to see Hopkins as a throwback fighter whose style makes him special. While there is truth to that, Hopkins has deteriorated into a one-trick pony. It's a good trick, but it's so ugly and boring that I simply hate to watch it. Crouch behind the left shoulder in a wide stance and wait and back away and circle away from the opponents power hand until they become frustrated and try to fight. Then jump in with a single straight punch and whether hitting or missing, clinch. In the clinch, bull your head and pin the other fighters arm on the off-referee side, turn the fighter away, punch in the kidney, body or side or back of the head, let go and push off. Complain liberally about getting hit on the break or rabbit punching or low blows. Hitting on the break is a bonus. Repeat.

It's so boring as to be stupefying and it forces me to root for the other guy. Calzaghe wanted to fight. He had to chase Hopkins to make him fight. All of that can be forgiven, however. That's fighting and in the immortal words of Ricky Hatton, "this ain't a tickling match, now is it?"What cannot be forgiven is the gentlemanly way that the ungentlemanly Hopkins is treated by HBO and Kellerman himself. Avoiding controversy, Kellerman danced around Hopkins' tenth round fakery rather than confronting him with it. Hopkins used a glancing glove-sided blow just below the beltline to take a four minute break. This was more than just an old man taking a break from being outpointed (which it was, too), but it was Hopkins' trying to lay late groundwork for a point deduction that he didn't deserve. In that vein, I'm surprised to find myself thankful for the almost completely otherwise ineffectual "I'm firm, but I'm fair" referee Jose Cortez. He never took a point from Hopkins when he should have, but at least he didn't take one from Calzaghe when he shouldn't have.

This was a subpar performance for the HBO team. There was apparently no amount of punching on the break, head butting, shoving, arm-pinning and hitting from behind that Hopkins could do to convince the reverent assembled group that he was anything other than "a physical specimen who, at age 43, remains a challenge for any fighter in the division and whose hall-of-fame credentials are as impeccable as his tough-to-solve masterful defensive fighting style." This guy is a dirty fighter who has cowed even the HBO team into bowing to him. While I've always disliked his style, I've respected him as a shrewd businessman and boxer who by sheer will managed to overcome the boringness (did I just make up a word?) of his boxing style. Now even that is erased. Some may say he tried to use the rules to buy himself some time, try to turn the tide and throw his opponent off-balance. Hogwash. I see a man who defiles the ring by pretending injury where there is none. Period. Shame on you Bernard. I hope you never return to the ring. I will not watch you again.

Who should Calzaghe fight next? He mentioned becoming a "giant killer" when asked if he would consider fighting Roy Jones. I would pay to see that (and it bears mention that I appreciated NOT having to pay for Calzaghe/Hopkins...something I anticipated having to do...), though I can't help but wonder why Calzaghe wants these old lions of the division. But of course the answer is obvious. That's the biggest name and the biggest fight. Roy showed he may still have some game against the thoroughly shot Trinidad, but he too will probably get smoked by Calzaghe. I wonder what catchweight they would use and I wonder if Joe might have a little more trouble with even the diminished Roy. Roy has a suspect chin, but Calzaghe probably won't be able to test it seriously and a bold Roy is a dangerous Roy. I'll have to think about that one before I can commit to a prediction. Until next time....

A Mid-April Night's Dream - Results

2008-04-13T09:56:00.007-04:00

A great many thanks again to both HBO and Showtime for packing Saturday night April 12, 2008 with fun fights. They weren't all great fights, but it was great to watch them all. Here's how I did:

PREDICTION
Cotto v. Gomez - This is the gimme. While Gomez has definitely acquitted himself best of the Contender TV show fighters, he's in about two tiers too deep tonight. Cotto is the best welter in the world right now and I've never seen him come unprepared. Perhaps this is some HBO's way of both rewarding and punishing Alfonso Gomez for retiring Arturo Gatti so ignominiously. Gomez is going to get hammered. Cotto is faster, stronger and while Gomez is no tomato can, that's not going to matter. The difference in speed and accuracy takes the fight out of Gomez by round four at the latest and though Gomez stands in to absorb a lot of punishment, it's over by TKO stoppage in the seventh.

RESULT
Okay so the reason I front-loaded this prediction is because it was so easy. It turned out exactly as I knew it would. Gomez showed toughness, but Cotto made Gomez look like the club fighter he is, relative to him. If anything, it was a little more lopsided than I thought it would be. It was a sparring session for Cotto, who hardly broke a sweat. He was clearly faster and hits so much harder that the wear showed almost immediately. There were three knockdowns over five rounds and it was stopped between the fifth and sixth rounds by the doctors because Gomez was taking too much unanswered punishment, resulting in a TKO stoppage for Cotto. To be fair, Gomez only looked so bad because Cotto looked so good. The knockdowns were the first, second and third of Gomez' career and the two that were clear took place on a hard jab and a body shot, respectively. I was glad to see it stopped, even though Gomez had acquitted himself better in the fifth than the fourth because he's a tough kid and he'd keep getting up and standing in.

COMMENTS
Wow. Cotto looks amazing. Although I think that even Larry Merchant, who was very much on his game, gave Gomez more credit for top level skill than he probably deserves, Cotto just blew Gomez out. Gomez is a cut above club fighter, with skills but no punching power, a good chin and a few different punches. He's got no defense but his chin and his speed is only slightly above average. He had no business being in with Cotto. Cotto displays super-elite handspeed, a good chin, a tactician's aptitude and hands so heavy that he could be knocking out middleweights twenty pounds north of welterweight. As I watched, I was thinking about how good Sugar Shane Mosley is to have stayed with Cotto at age 35, just months ago. On my card, Shane took the close fight because Cotto coasted toward the end, but it was no robbery. Cotto unquestionably has super-elite skills and power and was impressive in every way in this win. Cotto is the best welterweight in the world and there is little question why Mayweather wants no part of him.

PREDICTION
Cintron v. Margarito - this is a rematch of Cintron's only loss and Margarito is a fight removed from having been outpunched and outfought by the since seemingly diminished Paul Williams. Cintron hits like a ton of bricks and has knocked almost everyone out that he's ever faced, save for Margarito...who handed him a devastating and career-derailing knockout loss. After defeating Cintron the first time around, Margarito officially became the guy in the division nobody wanted to fight for a couple of years. Though he's since become a little less scary, he's still the kryptonite to Cintron's superman. Also, Margarito not only knows that Cintron is his signature win, but he's looking to win back the respect he lost in the Williams fight. Styles make fights and Margarito gets the best of Cintron again, but this time by decision. Cintron respects the punching power of Margarito this time around and that costs him the decision.

RESULT
Well...I was right that styles make fights and I got the winner right, but Cintron couldn't stay out of the pocket and respect Margarito's power because Margarito wouldn't let him. In fact, that appears to be the reason Margarito has Cintron's number so completely. Coming out like a house on fire, Margarito pressured Cintron relentlessly and never let him breathe. This quickly became a highlight reel to illustrate why boxing isn't like other athletic endeavors. On paper, this fight is close because Cintron hits so very hard. Every fighter who's ever faced him, except quite notably Margarito, backs off in the face of his power. He hits hard. He's knocked out nearly all of his prior 28 opponents and done so spectacularly. Even since his first loss, to Margarito, he's peppered his 5-0 record with spectacular KOs. Not so against Margarito.

Margarito made it a war from the opening bell and every time Cintron landed a big punch, Cintron tried to disengage. He's accustomed to a breather after those big bell-ringers, but Margarito never paused, walking right through the heaviest shots Cintron had to offer. Following Cintron around, he overwhelmed him with accurate hard shots. Cintron had no answers and for the second time, wilted in the face of Margarito's greater will to fight. After taking every round of the first five rounds on my card, Margarito ended it on a clean left hand body shot that not only hurt Cintron badly enough to drop him to the canvas, but gave Cintron an excuse not to get back up. KO for Margarito in the sixth.

COMMENTARY
This is a career-defining (not just de-railing, like the first) loss for Cintron. The question becomes, if Cintron fights again (which he should) can fighters who aren't of Margarito's quality do to Cintron, what Margarito did twice to him? probably not. The HBO team, while they did a spectacular job of calling the fight (particularly Merchant), undersold Margarito, I think. Emmanuel Steward particularly (who trained Cintron for the fight, was in his corner, then who re-appeared to break it down post-fight for HBO) was hard on Margarito. While he gave Margarito credit for fighting a great fight, he kept saying that Margarito is not a talented fighter, which I think is wrong. Cintron is made for Margarito and interestingly, it's Cintron who makes Margarito as great as Margarito appears against him.

Keep in mind that Margarito underperformed against Paul Williams two fights ago. It's surely because Margarito underestimated Williams, something he's never done with Cintron. I find it fascinating that Margarito himself holds the HBO "comp-u-box" record for over 1,600 punches thrown in a 12 round fight (which is amazing), but he was beaten two fights ago by Williams...who until losing to to Carlos Quintana because ironically he didn't move his hands enough (they're about to rematch, happily)...was the quintessential volume puncher. I saw the Margarito/Williams fight and Williams overwhelmed Margarito! Now...watching Margarito overwhelm Cintron so thoroughly (throwing constantly...and accurately, by the way...to the tune of well over 100 punches a round), makes me wonder where that fighter was against Williams.

The answer lies in Margarito himself. The HBO team highlighted the way the fighters developed and it's telling. A multi-talented athlete, all-state high school wrestler and basketball player, Cintron found he had an aptitude for boxing, but didn't start until age 19 (late for a top level boxer). Margarito came from nothing and fought his way up, starting at least as early as age 15 in Mexico. I suspect that, coming into their first fight, Margarito resolved to test the will of the athlete Cintron and finding it wanting, resolved to do it again in the rematch. He thrives not just on testing the will of a fighter like Cintron, who on paper is a devastatingly powerful fighter, but revels in the potential to humiliate just such a fighter. He's emboldened by the prospect of that humiliation and exults in the performance of it.

In the rematch, Margarito got to exult again. Seeing Margarito, who is by no means a classy guy, waving for Cintron to rise so that he could punish him some more, was telling. He's there to punish all of the fighters who dare enter the ring with him thinking they're going to get to admire their work, be slick, get breathers between punches and showcase their skills. He's there to fight. To make war. All the more so when he perceives there is a lesson to teach. Because of his pedigree and his KO record, Cintron brings that out in Margarito perhaps in a way that noone else has. Certainly this was a different Margarito than Paul Williams met. It is Cintron himself who makes Margarito elevate his game, which is a nasty game indeed, to it's highest level and that is high indeed.

Finally, Larry Merchant's performance bears mention because it was such a pleasure. Larry, whose occasionally almost whimsical input I've found at times both mildly grating and distinctly insightful in the past, was at the top of his game. I'm very glad HBO and he could come to terms to get him back at ringside and his absence seems to have re-invigorated his interest in offering truly insightful commentary. During the fight, he described Margarito as a "truth-telling machine" in the ring, who was bringing out the truth about Kermit Cintron. If there is more to say about that, it's only that not too many welterweights could divine that truth because they'd be flat on their backs before they could finish the tough questions that Margarito was so able to skillfully administer during this particular "interview."

I also must admit that I've cribbed the sentiment Merchant expressed during the fight itself. When Jim Lampley parroted Steward's descriptions of Cintron as a special athlete for the benefit of the audience, Merchant insightfully added, "prizefighting is not a game...". ...and that, and everything it implies, is why we who love boxing, love it so much. It allows us to see beyond the skills into the soul and will of the fighter. While most fights don't get us there...and some expose ugly things about that soul...those aspects are what makes prizefighting unique among sports.

PREDICTION
Chad Dawson v. Glen Johnson - Glen Johnson is a consummate pro who came to prominence late in his career by becoming the guy to prove that Antonio Tarver's knockout of Roy Jones wasn't a fluke. He proved himself an elite level fighter and has been rewarded with a series of top level fights, acquitting himself well each time out. This time, his age and the inevitable diminishment caused by age is going to show. He'll throw and give and take, but it will prove a step too slow for Dawson. Dawson is young, hungry, fast and a hard hitter. He won't be able to take the cagey Johnson out and while he'll respect Johnson's skills enough to stay out of danger, Dawson will get the best of Johnson all night long. I see this as a clear, if not easy, decision win for Dawson.

RESULT
Well...deconstructing this one is tough because it'd be really easy to say I got it completely right. If you look at the real-life result, that seems true...but yet it's not. The real-life result: a unanimous decision for the young and undefeated WBC champion Chad Dawson over 39 year old Glen "Road Warrior" Johnson 116-112 (all three judges), handing Johnson his 12th loss in 59 decisions.

What it was was a WBC robbery. When the scorecards took an inordinately long time to tally, I felt something was wrong. It bears saying that I had the fight 116-112 for Johnson, but the fight was not really that close. This is another indication of the corruption of boxing. A young undefeated beltholder is a far more marketable commodity than an older warrior and when it is allowed to go to the cards (especially for the WBC belts) the more marketable fighter not-so-miraculously comes out on top.

This was a fun fight to watch, don't get me wrong...especially with the sound down. Dawson, determined to prove himself, gave away his height advantage all night long, offered no defense to Johnson's clean overhand (over the shoulder, actually) right hands and stupidly mixed it up much of the night as Johnson walked him down. If this sounds like Dawson lost, he did. Dawson was noticeably hurt in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and almost down in the tenth. Johnson was never hurt and never even stunned or slowed. By the twelfth, Dawson was dancing away and for my money, not to preserve a win (or did he know?) but to avoid having to get in and scrap with the tough veteran, who'd beaten him down all night. Okay... so to say Dawson might have known that he would be handed a robbery is excessive and unfair to a fighter whose desire to show his mettle all night long forced him to make mistake after mistake, but then it emphasizes the likelihood that when he disengaged, it was to avoid the punishment that Johnson chased him down all night long to inflict.

Showtime, while giving us a great fight, remains just awful on the commentary side. Al Bernstein does a serviceable job, but because he is having to respond to the black and white pronouncements of Steve Albert, he's drowned out and left wanting. For example, near the outset, Albert describes Dawson as having superlative athleticism, otherworldly speed and amazing punching power. Well...he must be unbeatable! That is not commentary...that is promotion. We're watching, Steve. Stop selling us the fight.

In the tenth, Albert, in his instantly tiresome carnival barker role screams into the microphone and into our ears, "TREMENDOUS!!! WHAT A FIGHT!!! WOW!!!" Now...why does this guy have a microphone? Are we not watching the same fight he is? How is this helping?Please...please...someone cut off this guy's mike or send him back to the Columbia School for Broadcasting. Enough said.

PREDICTION
Clinton Woods v. Antonio Tarver - This is a tough fight for me to call. I've seen Woods fight, but don't have a specific recollection of his skills, except to say he has some. As for Tarver, well...he's on the comeback trail at an age where many fighters are awaiting induction into Canastota. Tarver's mantra has always been that his masterful defensive fighting style is underappreciated by judges, but I disagree. He doesn't move his hands enough and thinks he hits harder than he does out of his southpaw stance. Making a prediction come true five years ago and being the first guy to figure out that Roy Jones had lost his edge can only carry you so far. Tarver shows up game, but Woods wants it more and Tarver continues to believe that using your face to block punches and throwing half as often as your opponent should carry the day. Woods by a boring decision over Tarver, after which Tarver vows to fight on.

RESULT
Okay, so I got this one exactly backwards. When I said I didn't know enough about Woods, I was right. I forgot, despite amazingly somehow being the WBC light heavyweight champion (see caretaker until a more marketable fighter comes along...even the aging Tarver), Woods is a tentative slow-handed british club fighter. He was made for Tarver, as long as Tarver showed up prepared. To his marginal credit, he did. So...Tarver, who loves to admire his handiwork, got to do so all night long. Potshot, turn away, grab...punch in combination, slip away, grab, push off, potshot...dance away.

It was exactly the boring fight I predicted it would be, but going Tarver's way. Tarver didn't have to move his hands too much and he was in shape, so he didn't fade. He knew this was a great late career opportunity to pick up the WBC belt and knew it would be there for the taking. For his part, Woods hardly put up a fight. Following Tarver around the ring all night so he could be sure not to avoid any good hard shots to his face, Woods played to all of Tarver's strengths. I gave every round to Tarver except a gift of the 11th to Woods and the official judges had it 116-112 (british judge?); 117-111; and 119-109 for Tarver. A blowout.

CONCLUSION
It was a fun night of boxing for a realfightfan. Many thanks to HBO and to Showtime too, though I keep beating myself up for watching Showtime boxing broadcasts with the sound on.

A Mid-April Night's Dream - Predictions

2008-04-12T20:44:00.006-04:00

What a fun night of boxing we have coming tonight...so what the heck, I'm going to weigh in where I shouldn't. There are a few fighters fighting tonight that I don't know well enough to predict, but with that disclaimer...here goes...

Cotto v. Gomez - This is the gimme. While Gomez has definitely acquitted himself best of the Contender TV show fighters, he's in about two tiers too deep tonight. Cotto is the best welter in the world right now and I've never seen him come unprepared. Perhaps this is some HBO's way of both rewarding and punishing Alfonso Gomez for retiring Arturo Gatti so ignominiously. Gomez is going to get hammered. Cotto is faster, stronger and while Gomez is no tomato can, that's not going to matter. The difference in speed and accuracy takes the fight out of Gomez by round four at the latest and though Gomez stands in to absorb a lot of punishment, it's over by TKO stoppage in the seventh.

Cintron v. Margarito - this is a rematch of Cintron's only loss and Margarito is a fight removed from having been outpunched and outfought by the since seemingly diminished Paul Williams. Cintron hits like a ton of bricks and has knocked almost everyone out that he's ever faced, save for Margarito...who handed him a devastating and career-derailing knockout loss. After defeating Cintron the first time around, Margarito officially became the guy in the division nobody wanted to fight for a couple of years. Though he's since become a little less scary, he's still the kryptonite to Cintron's superman. Also, Margarito not only knows that Cintron is his signature win, but he's looking to win back the respect he lost in the Williams fight. Styles make fights and Margarito gets the best of Cintron again, but this time by decision. Cintron respects the punching power of Margarito this time around and that costs him the decision.

Chad Dawson v. Glen Johnson - Glen Johnson is a consummate pro who came to prominence late in his career by becoming the guy to prove that Antonio Tarver's knockout of Roy Jones wasn't a fluke. He proved himself an elite level fighter and has been rewarded with a series of top level fights, acquitting himself well each time out. This time, his age and the inevitable diminishment caused by age is going to show. He'll throw and give and take, but it will prove a step too slow for Dawson. Dawson is young, hungry, fast and a hard hitter. He won't be able to take the cagey Johnson out and while he'll respect Johnson's skills enough to stay out of danger, Dawson will get the best of Johnson all night long. I see this as a clear, if not easy, decision win for Dawson.

Clinton Woods v. Antonio Tarver - This is a tough fight for me to call. I've seen Woods fight, but don't have a specific recollection of his skills, except to say he has some. As for Tarver, well...he's on the comeback trail at an age where many fighters are awaiting induction into Canastota. Tarver's mantra has always been that his masterful defensive fighting style is underappreciated by judges, but I disagree. He doesn't move his hands enough and thinks he hits harder than he does out of his southpaw stance. Making a prediction come true five years ago and being the first guy to figure out that Roy Jones had lost his edge can only carry you so far. Tarver shows up game, but Woods wants it more and Tarver continues to believe that using your face to block punches and throwing half as often as your opponent should carry the day. Woods by a boring decision over Tarver, after which Tarver vows to fight on.

I'm really looking forward to this night of boxing. Four fights worth watching. Thanks to HBO and Showtime.

Casamayor Hangs On and is Handed Stoppage Over Katsidis

2008-03-23T11:17:00.006-04:00

Cuban expatriate Joel Casamayor is the linear 135 lb. titleholder and Ring Magazine consensus champion and while he finally fought like one (after losing the last time out, no matter what the judges said), I would much rather have seen Michael Katsidis take his crown. In fact, Katsidis was well on his way to doing just that when Casamayor got Katsidis in trouble in the tenth and the referee jumped in before Katsidis was floored again, perpetuating a disturbing trend of protecting a fighter who is clearly not too far gone. This trend was evident in the Friday Night Fights main event, which pitted the Irish Lee against a leads-with-his-face Contender series veteran.

First, to this fight in particular. Katsidis was in trouble in the tenth to be sure. He looked wobbly and the stoppage wasn't that bad, but...he deserved the chance to go on. He'd taken a few flush shots in a row, it's true and he was totally defensive but I would have preferred to allow an undefeated fighter fighting for a consensus world title who had acquitted himself well enough that he was ahead on the scorecards a chance to weather the storm. Katsidis earned that chance by coming off the canvas after two first round knockdowns to dominate much of the rest of the fight including an arguable 10-8 round the previous round (on a low blow deduction against Casamayor) and a knockdown of Casamayor in the sixth. He pressed the action, landed the cleaner shots and didn't allow Casamayor to rest for round after round.

I would also like to have seen the classier fighter get his due and that fighter is definitely Katsidis. Not only am I soured on Casamayor's counterpunch, smother and hug style...I saw him lose this "linear title" the last time out. In that previous fight, Casamayor was clearly outpointed and walked away with a robbery, so seeing him with his hand raised again against an arguably worthier opponent is all the more distasteful. He's refused to fight the best in the division, sitting on his title and waiting on a fight he thought was an easy win. He thought Katsidis would be just that and boy was he wrong.

Casamayor taunted Katsidis when Katsidis entered the ring in his Trojan battle helmet, getting in his face and jawing at him. This was just the beginning. Katsidis started the fight holding his right hand low and payed dearly for it. Casamayor took advantage with a left hook that dropped Katsidis and when he rose, Casamayor took advantage again, shooting a straight left through his guard to drop him again. He then proceeded to grab, butt and attempt to humiliate Katsidis by dropping his hands to his sides as he boxed plainly intent to show how much better he thinks he is than Katsidis. It was Katsidis who almost got the last laugh.

Adapting, Katsidis kept his right up to guard against those left hands and began chasing the retreating, mocking Casamayor around the ring. Casamayor's cockiness turned to cover-up as he realized Katsidis was not only not going down or having his will broken but asserting his own control over the fight. At age 35 and as a veteran counterpuncher schooled in using every dirty trick in the book, Casamayor expected he'd cowed the young warrior. He hadn't. Katsidis relentlessly pursued the veteran around the ring as Casamayor butted him, shoved him, grabbed him and bullrushed him to blunt his aggressiveness. It didn't work. It should be noted in fairness that Katsidis himself plainly showed up willing to butt right back. Happily, neither fighters head-wagging tactics caused cuts or swelling that affected the fight.

Katsidis took rounds three through nine on my card and while three of those rounds were close enough to call close, my card had the challenger Katsidis ahead 5 points up going into the 10th round. Interspersed in those rounds was a 10-8 sixth where Katsidis sent Casamayor through the ropes and a 10-8 ninth where the referee took a point from Casamayor for low blows. These extra points resulted in the breadth of the lead on my card, though that ninth might reasonably have been scored 9-9 (for Casamayor).

Katsidis had dropped Casamayor in the sixth and despite the post-fight protestations from Casamayor that he had not been hurt, he was clearly put through the ropes by punches and no loss of balance as he claimed. Driven back, Casamayor was hurt and fell seated onto the bottom rope where the pursuing Katsidis nailed him on the side of the head, knocking him completely out of the ring. In fact, a long count from the referee who stopped after counting ten because Casamayor was in the act of climbing back through the ropes, is the only thing that kept Casamayor from losing right then. His losing then would have been just. Unfortunately, the ref let him get back in the ring and fate didn't punish Casamayor the way it did Katsidis a little over three rounds later: the bell sounding the rounds' end was less than ten seconds away. He survived.

In a way, Katsidis has himself to blame, but he's such a dedicated warrior that he can not only be forgiven, but we're saddened that the villain won out again this time. Katsidis forgot to keep his right hand high going into the tenth and got caught very early in the round. The count from the ref for Katsidis this time was slow (and that was fair) and Katsidis was still clearly wobbly as Casamayor waded in, intent on finishing him. This time however, the ref wasn't slow...he jumped in waving his arms after only a few punches and while Katsidis was clearly wobbly and Casamayor's punches were finding their mark, I sure would have liked to have seen Katsidis be given a better chance to get his bearings. Katsidis was ahead 86-81 on my card at the time the ref stopped it, awarding a TKO to Casamayor, who danced around the ring and was hoisted aloft as if he'd earned the win.

Okay, so my prejudice is showing through. I am prejudiced against Casamayor not only because he was outboxed the majority of the fight, but because he has such a dirty, grabbing, butting, hugging noncombative boxing style. He was forced out of his comfort zone by the hyper-aggressive Katsidis and outpointed for the majority of the fight. Now...I can see perhaps three of the rounds going the other way, but even then Katsidis is up by two after being floored twice in the opening frame. I do tend to think that I gave Katsidis those three close rounds because he was pressing the action and because I dislike Casamayor's style so much, but they were there for the taking.

Further, Katsidis is so much classier than Casamayor. When asked if he felt he could have continued and specifically if he felt the judge had made a mistake stopping it when he did, Katsidis offered the classiest answer available: that's the refs job and I'm in no position to question it. That's the answer of a worthy fighter and while class alone does not win titles, when combined with the heart of a lion that Katsidis displays, it wins fans and ought to merit a better chance to recover than he was given (again, considering he was ahead on points late in this close fight).

I dislike Casamayor too for the very reasons that were exposed in the post-fight wrap up. Despite being knocked through the ropes, he claimed he was unhurt. Rather than giving his opponent his due, he denigrated him as not being a hard puncher. Despite Nate "The Galaxy Warrior" Campbell having just removed the fighter (Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz) that Casamayor had been obviously ducking from the immediate unification picture, he made clear he has every intention of ducking Campbell too. He's a classless punk of a blown-up amateur and his hugging Katsidis as his interview was about to start didn't make up any ground with me. Here's hoping Pacquiao is not too undersized when he comes up five pounds to blast Casamayor back into obscurity and out of contention where he belongs.

Now, to briefly address the opening of this post. In this fight, as in a horrible stoppage on FNF of the Emmanuel Steward fighter Lee, is there a trend in denying worthy fighters who've earned the right to go out on their butts their chance to do so? Lee was so clearly outboxing his ex-Contender opponent in that FNF main event that it was a joke for much of the fight. Lee looked the worse for wear, but what Irish fighter doesn't? The opponent absorbed an amazing amount of flush punishment, was down and was allowed to continue. Now...I don't mean to denigrate that kind of heart...it's surely as laudable as any pug who can absorb punishment and keep coming, but toughness is only one component of the sport and a complete and utter lack of defense is not something to be rewarded. Lee on the other hand controlled the pace of the fight until the seventh, punishing his opponent for his naked aggressiveness and got in trouble really only once. For the referee, that was all it took. When Lee went briefly defensive after a knockdown, the ref jumped in and I was left staring at my TV screen and dumbfoundedly wondering aloud, "oh my gosh...why are you stopping this? why are you stopping this?" His opponent jumped around the ring as if he deserved the gift he'd just been handed.

My heart goes out to Lee who earned the right to absorb some more punishment and slip punches until he could recover. Unlike Casamayor, this guy's punches weren't accurate and while I didn't like the Katsidis stoppage, the Lee stoppage was far more deeply unjust. It similarly took away an undefeated fighters "zero" and makes me pine for some mechanism that would prevent this kind of injustice. I know there isn't one, but we can dream. We're at the mercy of the third man and here's hoping that these men have their actions reviewed vigorously before they're allowed to climb back in the ring and strip deserving fighters of their best and perhaps only chances at scaling glory's heights in the misguided guise of protecting them from their own courage. It's a tough sport and an undefeated fighter who is ahead on the cards and acquitting himself with valor should be allowed to literally go down under fire before he's counted out.

Pacquiao Concludes His Conquest of Mexico

2008-03-16T20:27:00.005-04:00

Having bested the icons of Mexican boxing at 130 lbs, Manny Pacquiao concluded his domination of the best Mexico has to offer in the weight class by defeating Juan Manuel Marquez, effectively preventing Marquez from staking his own claim to Mexican boxing immortality. If it had been a horserace though, it would have been a photo finish.

"Pac man" and Marquez had unfinished business after their only previous fight, a draw in 2004. Having since convincingly defeated Mexican hall of fame shoo-in warriors Marco Antonio Barrera and Erik Morales, only Marquez stood between Pacquiao and a claim to complete domination of a weight division flush with the elite of Mexican boxing. Having knocked Marquez down three times in the first round of the 2004 fight, Pacquiao had been soundly outboxed for practically the complete remainder of that fight, eking out a draw that many (this author included) thought should have gone by decision to Marquez. This time Marquez was back to prove not only that he could avoid for twelve consecutive rounds (instead of eleven) the big left hand that had thrice floored him before, but that he could salvage Mexico's claim to supremacy at 130 lbs.. He made a good run at both, but still came up short.

The fight started tactically with the fighters staying at range, a model that clearly favored the boxer Marquez. The better counterpuncher, Marquez kept Pacquiao at range and exploited the openings created by Pacquiao's aggression. By the third round opening bell, it felt as if the tone of the fight was set and that Marquez was going to have the upper hand all night. I think Pacquiao felt it too because for the first time, he began to take risks. Jumping in and seeking chances to land flush shots, Pacquiao was eating leather for his trouble while seeking that one shot that could cripple Marquez. For any fighter but a fighter of Pacquiao's natural skill, this would be a recipe for disaster. Not for Pacquiao, though. He finally landed his shot with about 20 seconds left in the round. Flooring Marquez with a clean shot to the chin, Pacquiao retreated to the neutral corner...then, being a finisher, he stepped on the gas until the final bell. It came too soon for Pacquiao to finish him, but Marquez was definitely dazed, following Pacquiao back to his corner for a few moments after the bell. The tide was turned...for the moment.

Pacquiao came out blazing in the fourth and pressed his advantage for the first two minutes, but Marquez proved resilient and over halfway into the round, Pacquiao let up a bit when it became clear that Marquez was not any more likely to wilt this time out than he was the last time. The break allowed Marquez to get his wits about him and he came storming back in the last thirty seconds of the round. It wasn't enough to win the round on my scorecard, but it was enough to turn the tide back yet again in his favor and the fifth and sixth both reverted to the same tactical boxing match that favored Marquez and he indeed took both rounds on my card.

Perhaps again sensing the fight slipping away on the cards (and with trainer Freddy Roach telling him as much in the corner), Pacquiao found his aggression anew in the seventh, jumping in and out to give himself opportunities and taking the round as a result on this scorer's card. That jumping in and out though, caused the almost inevitable clash of heads (in fact, they'd butted noticeably several times up to that point) between the southpaw Pacquiao and the righthander Marquez. This time, Marquez suffered a cut outside his left eye. This cut, unlike a later cut, wouldn't bother him much.

Coming out after his first cut in the eighth, Marquez showed a renewed determination to force a tactical fight and in doing so cut Pacquiao with a punch in a bad spot, under his right eyelid. The cut occurred early in the round and clearly affected Pacquiao. Ever the good tactician, Marquez pressed his advantage, going after the eye and forcing the action. Pacquiao stayed away and battled back where he could, waiting for the bell so his corner could assess the damage. When they did, between the eighth and ninth, they did an amazing job of stopping the flow of blood. While it swelled, it never really flowed again for the remainder of the fight and Pacquiao wasn't bothered by it.

Marquez' turn came in the next round, when a Pacquiao punch cut him over his right eye. This time referee Kenny Bayless, noticing how deep, wide and dangerously placed the cut was right away stopped the action and ordered the ringside physician to examine the fighter. The fight was allowed to go on, which at the time, once I saw the cut between rounds, I felt was the wrong decision. It looked to be nearly two inches long, in the swollen underside of the eyelid and clearly separating and deep. I said aloud "stop the fight...", as much as I didn't want the result. I was wrong. In fact, the cutmen in both corners did incredible jobs of stopping the blood flow from both fighters' cuts, but the Marquez cutman was a magician. In a move I'd never witnessed (and unless my eyes decieved me) he actually put in and left in a piece of string (?), sending his fighter back into the 10th with the string actually inside the open wound. It worked. Unbelievably, the cut was not a factor from that point on.

However, Marquez' momentum was gone and in the first half of the 10th, he was visibly shaken by a clean shot from Pacquiao and though he fought back valiantly toward the conclusion of that frame, lost on my card. The 11th was so close that it could have gone either way. After the bell ending the round sounded, I still couldn't decide and as the break ticked away, I tried to come down on one side or the other. I finally gave it Pacquiao based on the momentum he had carried into the round and maintained in the first half and because he seemed to answer the counters by Marquez that were turning the tide, but it easily could have been scored for Marquez. That round was a round that, had I scored it for Marquez, would have flipped the result on my card. The final round went to Marquez based on his being more effective and landing more clean shots.

The official judges came out 112-115 for Marquez, 115-112 for Pacquiao and the final tie breaking judge in the split decision scoring it 114-113 for Pacquiao. My scorecard matched this third judge and I can't help but wonder if his card was like mine: that 11th round, that was so close that it was practically a coin-flip, went to Pacquiao and gave him the fight. If so, it is a cruel fate indeed for a fighter to come so close to the kind of redemption that Marquez forever sought in the eyes of the Mexican fight fans...and yet to fall short. That said, it was hard to feel sorry for him when he was less than charitable in the post-fight interviews through an interpreter. I must admit that, were I a fighter, I too would find it very difficult to hide my own disgust if I'd worked so singlemindedly for a goal that was within my grasp, only to feel it had been unfairly denied me by the judges. But then...this is the fight game and if your dominance is not proven by having the other fighter stretched out on the canvas by the time the final bell tolls...then it goes to the cards. I've seen many competitors work like madmen to the final bell, suffer questionable decisions, then shrug the robberies away...knowing that once the result left their hands that anything could happen.

Marquez had room to complain, but ironically not nearly as much as the last time out. This time, he'd not consistently outboxed a much technically improved Pacquiao. He'd showed his counterpunching brilliance at times, but he'd still landed on his butt in the fourth, clearly badly shaken and been rattled noticeably again in the tenth. Noone can question his resilience and his commitment, but he had not similarly jarred Pacquiao even once. For his part, Pacquiao still ceded the edge in footwork and tactical skill to Marquez, but not nearly by as wide a margin this time out. As was noted by the HBO commentators (who did another fantastic job), Marquez was always set to punch, while Pacquiao was frenetic, in and out and punching from unset positions. But, as also noted by the HBO team, Pacquiao's edge lies in his punching power. He has "heavy hands", and even glancing blows tend to stun and even drop his opponents. That is the kind of talent that can't be taught. When combined with boxing skill, that innate talent makes a formidable prizefighter indeed. This night, Pacquiao had improved enough as a boxer to stay close enough when it was a boxing match and still exploit his natural talent when the opportunity presented. He deserved the win and may now move to 135 lbs. Here's hoping he does, because he's certainly paid dues enough for two hall of fame careers at 130lbs.

Peter Gets a Seat at the Table and the Galaxy Warrior Outworks Diaz

2008-03-09T20:16:00.005-04:00

That Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz could be outworked was the surprise of the Saturday night March 8, 2008 HBO card. That Sam Peter could knock out Oleg Maskaev was no surprise at all.

With this win, Sam Peter vaulted himself into position to demand a rematch (that sadly, he probably won't get right away) with Wladimir Klitschko. Here's to once again hoping that Vitali Klitschko suffers yet another training injury and retires so that we don't have to wait for the WBC chicanery to sort itself out while the elder Klitschko tries to steal a title shot he hasn't earned to attempt to win a belt he won't meaningfully defend (against his own brother in a unification bout). Welcome to boxing politics. To the fight...

This fight ended exactly as predicted, but it didn't get there as anticipated. Maskaev didn't come out smoking the way I expected he would. While he and Peter didn't exactly pose the first round away, each spent time testing the others speed and quickness. I felt Peter got the better of it because he landed a big shot where Maskaev let his hands go a bit, but didn't manage to land much. As I wrote in this space before the fight, there was no strategy employable by Maskaev that would get him out of that ring in one piece with his title.

That may be a little unfair to Maskaev, who definitely earned his spot in the ring by knocking out Hasim Rahman 16 months before...but Rahman is no Sam Peter. Maskaev is a sound boxer, but again showed that he's no champion. He does nothing so well that it stands out. Boxers like him do indeed get to hold belts for a while, but they invariable fold to talents like those of Sam Peter.

Maskaev got in trouble in the 3rd, but rebounded. He clearly thought that he'd have his best chance counterpunching, but since he isn't faster than Peter, he couldn't move around him to outbox him. Since he isn't stronger than Peter, he couldn't walk him backward. So he tried to stay just out of range and counterpunch. That was a recipe for disaster and though that recipe took nearly 18 full minutes to cook all the way through, when it did it...Maskaev was completely done (and undone).

The open scoring format that had the announcer telling the crowd (and the fighters) at the beginning of the 5th round that Peter was ahead by 2 rounds already by that point surely destroyed Maskaev's confidence in his strategy to try to outbox Peter. He might have deluded himself that it was working, if not for that cold bucket of reality. Perhaps that caused him to stay in the pocket a bit more, but if it did I didn't notice it. I only had one of the first four rounds close, but I had given the 4th to Maskaev (which made my score 39-37 matching two of the three official judges). He could not have known that and for that reason, among so many others, open scoring is an amazingly bad idea: it materially affects the fight. That's topic for another day though. In this fight, frankly it probably didn't matter.

While it was a more tactical fight than I expected until Peter knocked Maskaev out, the result was the same. I was frankly glad not to see the Peter of three years ago, flailing away with roundhouses at the opening bell until his opponent wilts. He can't keep that up at this level and there's a puncher's chance that even against Maskaev, that bravado could have had Peter end up the one flat on his back. Peter showed more restraint than that, which was a vast improvement over his short-notice fight against Jameel McCline. Against McCline, he so clearly underestimated McCline and failed to respect him that he reverted to his old self and indeed did get caught and dropped before rising, collecting himself and grinding out a decision. He was only capable of that because McCline stupidly thought he could coast on 4 rounds of good work. Peter wasn't about to let that happen this time. As expected, he'd prepared for Maskaev.

For his part, Maskaev played up every angle. He complained and gestured at the back of his head, trying to take advantage of Peter's earned and mildly unfair reputation for rabbit punching. Peter loops his hooks and Maskaev, like every opponent, bobs forward to duck and takes a whack behind the ear. Now...this doesn't explain every rabbit punch that Peter throws, but he gets dinged for it a lot more than he deserves. Guys duck and get nailed. Maskaev was transparent in his efforts to get a point deducted for what he was trying to have judged a foul. It was unseemly, but then again Maskaev was the one in the ring with Sam Peter and trying to exploit every advantage can be forgiven to some extent when one is so clearly outmatched. While the outcome seemed uncertain at times because of the tactical nature of the fight, you only had to consider who was stalking and who was trying to counterpunch from safety to see in whose favor the odds were stacked. It was just a matter of time and sure enough, at the end of round 6 Maskaev got caught and Peter swarmed in. Peter is a good finisher and Maskaev never stood a chance. But that was true from the beginning. This was the fight Maskaev massaged every available angle to avoid. Now we know why.

The other big fight of the night was the fight in which I predicted that Nate "The Galaxy Warrior" Campbell was a very bad matchup for the champion Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz and if I were Diaz' promoter, I would never have let him fight. But when I wrote that I honestly forgot that Diaz' promoter is Don King. Let me put it this way: notice where Don King was standing after the fight...behind Nate Campbell. Now in some fights you could forgive the promoter for not standing in behind the loser...but promoting both fighters and then standing behind the new champion during the interviews and leaving the battered young champion who'd just taken his first loss because of your machiavellian matchmaking standing alone to explain his loss...priceless Don.

Diaz actually looked like he had an off night, but it may well have been because Nate Campbell was just too strong and too motivated. Diaz' calling card is his punch output and his go-forward style. He leaves himself open as he wades in working the body, throwing in great combination and not stopping to breathe...but he had never been made to pay for his lack of defense until this fight. Campbell, 12 years Diaz' senior, at age 36 surely knew this was his last shot at being in the lightweight mix. For whatever reason, Don King decided to give Nate his dream shot and match his young, articulate and up-and-coming champion with tons of upside against a desperate super tough bomb dropping pro who would be the toughest possible fight for Diaz with the smallest possible upside.

I'm going to guess (because I don't know) that Don King's contract with the Baby Bull is limited or coming to an end. I'm also going to guess that Don's contract with The Galaxy Warrior is ironclad and weighted toward Don in such a way that Don is the one with the upside if Nate comes out on top. Don now gets to keep his WBC title in his stable and deal a crushing blow to a career that was just about to leave his control (perhaps for Golden Boy?). I should again add that I don't know the truth or falsity of this...but it just adds up.

In any case, Campbell fought the right fight. He outworked Diaz and when he cut Diaz over his left eye, he worked to swell it and keep the blood flowing. Campbell threw his head around in the clinches and rolled his shoulders around while leaning in on Diaz. He stayed in the pocket all night and came prepared to outfight Diaz at his own game. That's exactly what he did. He outworked the volume puncher and since he hits harder, he did a lot of damage. Diaz is a young man with a bright future (not just in boxing) and since he doesn't hit hard, here's hoping he takes some time off, gets a new promoter and regroups. He's got a few years left on a career like his and his style is so exciting that he should stay in and make some money before getting out but let's hope he keeps his promise to his mother and gets out with enough marbles to make it through law school. His story is only inspiring if it doesn't end up with him selling pencils out of a cup on a streetcorner.

The split decision went 114-112 Diaz and 115-112 and 116-111 Campbell. I had it 115-112 for Campbell and I had Campbell pitching a shutout from the 6th round on. Campbell was acceptably gracious at the post-fight interview to Diaz' face, but otherwise he was almost totally without class. That's a shame, so perhaps the next thing someone will teach him is how to behave like a champion now that he's earned the right to call himself one. He earned that right in the ring Saturday night. I should add that at no point do I mean to imply that Don King handed Nate Campbell the title. He did not. Campbell earned it by outhustling, outhitting and outperforming a fighter who had made it all the way to the top impressively by outhustling everybody he fought. Diaz had worn down every fighter he'd ever faced, but he couldn't wear down Nate Campbell.

The last fight of the night took place on the other network. If HBO is the classy call girl network of pay channel boxing, then Showtime is the skanky whore. You only go to Showtime if HBO isn't working and you know what to expect ...and although it's what you bargained for...it's almost always disappointing. Okay...so the analogy isn't perfect...but calling Showtime boxing a skanky whore is.

On Showtime, a cruiserweight that I had heard of knocked out another cruiserweight I'd never heard of. They were both Brits and of mild interest was that the loser was trained by Enzo Calzaghe, father of Joe. Until now, I'd thought I'd understood that Joe was trained his whole life only by his father...which may still be true...but I was surprised to see that the father was taking the time train other championship (I guess) level fighters.

Anyway...David "The Hayemaker" Haye (the guy I'd heard of) made pretty short work of the other guy Enzo Macaranelli (yes, Enzo was training Enzo...weird, huh? is that a popular name over there that hasn't caught on here? maybe it will...like the Beatles...). Haye was quicker and despite showing a deeply flawed style that I think is going to get him annhilated against the elite level of the heavyweight division, he clearly overmatched this Macaranelli guy. Haye waited on the other guys' jab and slipping it, he brought his big straight right hand in over the top and cracked him, but good. It took two such good shots to put him in a position to be finished off at 2:02 of the second round.

They fought the fight at 2 am London time, presumably to get it on Showtime at 9pm for a US audience and after the second round knockout, Haye fell all over himself thanking Showtime for airing it. He also took the opportunity to repeatedly arrogantly refer to himself in the third person as "The Hayemaker" and call out the entire heavyweight division: "look out...the Hayemaker is comin'!"

Now...as to how "The Hayemaker" will do against...let's not even say Sam Peter (3rd round KO, at best)...let's put him in against any one of the recently vanquished heavyweight champions. Either Maskaev or Sultan Ibragimov make 8 round work of Haye. Why? Because he carries his left hand low and hangs his chin out over his front foot to try and land a jab that he brings up from his waist. That pretty face of his will get battered (he's apparently done some modelling?) by a technician and if Haye thinks heavyweights are slow, he doesn't realize that most of the guys he's been fighting are fighting there because they either don't have the skills, the weight or the punch to come up to heavyweight.

The guys up there aren't slow...not at the level of guys he's calling out (or even right below). I think Haye gets exposed before he can make a dent at the highest level of the heavyweight division. That said, Haye may well be the best cruiserweight in the world. He now holds the WBA, WBC and WBO belts and understandably proudly donned the Ring belt too in the ring after the fight. But let's not forget that the cruiserweight division was created as boxings equivalent of an afterthought to give guys who were unfairly matched against what is an unlimited weight class right above them. Only one fighter has ever climbed from cruiser to meaningfully contend as a heavyweight and he was at ringside: Evander Holyfield. Generally speaking, being the best fighter in the world at cruiserweight is like being the best thief in the whole prison.

Predictions for Saturday March 8th, 2008

2008-03-08T20:30:00.004-05:00

Oleg Maskaev v. Sam Peter - Finally, Sam Peter gets old Oleg in the ring. I have little doubt that we'll see the reason that Maskaev has been ducking Peter for as long as he's held this alphabet heavyweight belt and Peter has been the mandatory challenger. Peter will come prepared to take the title away and since he'll have his eyes on the prize, he'll relentlessly pursue Maskaev and pound on him.

While it's true that Maskaev can box and hits hard enough to discourage any heavyweight, Peter has a very solid chin and can box a bit too...when he wants to. That's not going to matter much and I doubt Peter will see the need to break out any of the real boxing skills he showed in Toney II. Where Peter has the advantage here is his power. He can knock out any heavyweight with one punch and hits hard enough that even glancing blows do serious damage. By comparison, Maskaev has be sitting down on his punch and catch an opponent flush to do close that kind of damage. Peter can knock a man to his knees off his back foot. It's the difference between a guy who throws a 92 mph fastball and a 100 mph fastball. One guy has to learn to throw two other pitches and hit his spots to stay in the show, while the other just goes out an blows batters away at every level. Peter has that gift and when he pays attention, he brings it to bear. He'll pay attention because this will be his best chance yet to meaningfully get in the mix in the heavyweight division, get an alphabet belt and therefore a place at the table in the unification discussion that will get him his coveted rematch with Wladimir Klitschko.

The erstwhile champion Maskaev has the two options that any boxer has against a huge puncher: 1- try to back him up, keep him fighting uncomfortably off his back foot all night and either knock him out or keep him defensive or; 2- get on his horse and stay away, pile up what points he can get from range, stay out of danger and look for counterpunching opportunities and go for a points win if no real plum opportunities present.

Maskaev's problem is that he's not a good enough (or more to the point, energetic enough) boxer to pull off number two and if he stays in the pocket to try to do number one, he'll probably get knocked out quickly. He's not nearly as physically imposing as Peter, their reach is probably about the same (Maskaev may have a slight advantage) and Peter is probably quicker. Their chins are about the same. Maskaev on the other hand is technically sound and he hits hard, but he doesn't do any one thing particularly well or particularly poorly. He's a solid fighter, but no champion. That's what sets Peter apart...he does do one thing exceptionally well: he knocks guys out. We learned he can box too...but sadly I doubt we'll see as much of that as we'd like. I had high hopes after watching Peter outbox James Toney in their rematch, but I came back to earth after watching an underprepared Peter squeak by Jameel McCline.

I think what we'll see is Maskaev come out aggressive to try and get Peter's respect. He may get it, but he's just as likely to get knocked out in the first round. If he survives standing in the pocket and trying to back Peter off, he'll fail after two or three rounds and he'll start backing up and boxing, looking for counterpunching opportunities. They will be too few and far between . Peter will pursue and absorb some counters for his trouble, but he'll eventually cripple Maskaev with a big shot and it will all become academic. I see this fight ending by KO in Peter's favor by round 8 at the latest. If Maskaev stays away, content to lose on the cards, it will be a lopsided decision win for Peter. On paper, this is a no-win situation for Maskaev and in fact that is the very reason he's been hoping that time, the sanctioning body, a substitute opponent (Jamel McCline almost gave him his wish), a big Vitali Klitschko comeback (and a bigger money fight in which to lose the title) or a random bus would prevent this matchup. He's run out of excuses and he's going to end up handing over the belt...probably from flat on his back. I'll be very surprised by any other outcome. But then...that's why they fight the fights.

Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz v. Nate "The Galaxy Warrior" Campbell - This a far more dangerous fight for Diaz than I would have made for him at this stage. He's got too much to lose and too little to gain. Nate Campbell is a proven guy with a very good chin and he can punch. That's not to say that Diaz is out of his league, but putting your undefeated record, title and future earning potential (at least in part) on the line against a guy only the die-hard FNF fan knows is a risky decision. I do see Diaz winning, but definitely by decision and definitely absorbing a lot more punishment than would be ideal for a guy with his upside and fighting style. Now...I recognize that the sentiment above is completely unfair to Campbell. He is a guy who's made his bones and deserves his shot. It's just that if I'm Diaz' promoter... there's no way I give that shot to Campbell. Diaz could get knocked out and all that upside would be shattered...and as anyone who watches the fight game knows...once humpty dumpty's undefeated record is gone by KO, too often all the king's horses and all the king's men can't put humpty together again. That said, I'll play the percentages and take Diaz and his workrate wear'em out style over Campbell's bombs and call it for Diaz by decision 8 rounds to 4.

David Haye v. Enzo Macarenelli - Okay, I'll be honest...I'm not even sure I'm spelling Enzo's name right. I don't know him and from what little I've read about Haye, I know he's a former male model who looks cut, hits hard and has tried to rehabilitate his image after a loss derailed him a while back. They're both supposed to be punchers and at cruiserweight that should be worth watching. Since it's on Showtime, I'll fast forward to the fighting. They both take knockdowns, but Haye by KO in 6.

Vasquez v. Marquez III: What a fight! Now Tune in For MMA!!!

2008-03-03T20:04:00.006-05:00

While the title of this article is actually intended to mock the Showtime announcer/carnival barker Steve Albert, in fact it's true: what a fight! It's nice when a fight lives up to it's billing and when it's the rubber match of a trilogy between two Ring top ten P4P fighters, it's all the better. This past Saturday night just such a fight was shoddily broadcast on Showtime and the quality of the matchup and the hearts and skills of the fighters shone through.

Everybody who watched the first two fights knew that Vasquez hits harder. Marquez knew it. Marquez also knew he was a little faster and a bit better boxer. So that's why we witnessed the power puncher Vasquez chase Marquez almost all night. The "almost" applied to the last two rounds when, while Marquez seems to be saying he coasted (when he shouldn't have), Vasquez finally wore Marquez down. What Marquez tried to spin in the post-fight as calculating care was obviously to the observer a fighter who could run, dodge, dance and jab for 10 rounds...but not for all 12.

These guys fought all night. Marquez stuck and moved, while Vasquez relentlessly advanced. Vasquez ate a lot of leather for his trouble and you've got to be a very tough man to absorb as many clean shots from a fighter of Marquez' caliber, walk through them and keep pursuing...but that's exactly what Vasquez did. From the outset, Marquez' jab was sharp and he circled, beating Vasquez to the punch over and over. But as early as the second round, it was clear that the reason he was moving so much was to stay off the ropes and to avoid getting caught. Now...this is a legitimate boxer's tactic and on balance a good one against a puncher whom you can't walk down. But there's no easy road against a hard puncher and of the two ways to go, staying away and outboxing a puncher is the more tiring. By fight's end, Marquez' choice showed and although he'd done a lot of damage himself, the damage he'd absorbed showed more clearly. He'd done what he could to even it up...even bending the rules, but it wasn't enough.

Marquez hit Vasquez low. Was it to slow him down? Well...Vasquez never did it and they were in the same ring. Marquez hit low in the 3rd. He was warned. Marquez hit low in the 6th. He was warned. Marquez hit low in the 10th. A point was taken and to watch Marquez you'd have thought he was being pickpocketed. He didn't low again, though. How about that? Marquez did inflict some damage here and there though. Vasquez went down in the 4th, stunned. He stood and dominated the rest of the round and were it not for Marquez' refusal to let an accumulation of blows put him to the canvas, he would have been down himself.

Marquez moved all night. Sometimes he was able to escape Vasquez and sometimes not but when he couldn't, the damage began to pile up. In the 12th, for the first time all fight, Marquez grabbed Vasquez. He was shot. For his trouble, Vasquez pounded him every concievable way. He worked him high, low and in between. He staggered him and then...for the first time all fight and in the 12th and final round and with only 4 seconds left in the fight, he put him down. Marquez' behind or gloves didn't touch the canvas...but he fell defenseless into the corner post, driven back by punches, his legs splayed out and he caught a big punch flush before being held from the canvas by the post and ropes. At that moment, the referee stepped in because no matter how little time remained, he saw a fighter in deep trouble.

After the fight Marquez protested the standing eight count he received, but once he watches the tape, he'll probably be ashamed at the fuss he made. At the time in the fight when he should have been trying to finish, he was holding on while Vasquez was finishing. As between two very tough, talented and dedicated fighters, the better man won.

I gave the first three rounds to Marquez, but the fourth only went to Marquez 9-8 despite his knockdown of Vasquez because the knockdown seemed to energize Vasquez. Vasquez dominated the remainder of the round thoroughly. He caught Marquez flush repeatedly as Marquez dropped the boxing and foolishly tried to finish Vasquez. In the fifth, Marquez picked up where he left off and by the end of round 5, I had Marquez ahead by 5 full rounds. In a 12 round fight that is a huge mountain to climb...but on my card, Vasquez did it.

Getting hit low in the 6th, he seemed to be catching up to Marquez and landing more solidly. Unlike Marquez, when Vasquez landed, the effect was noticeable. Marquez would slow almost imperceptibly, back off...try to regroup...but Vasquez always gave chase. Relentless, Vasquez turned the tide, himself reeling off three of four straight rounds. At this point, I must admit that some of these rounds were so close with both men punching and connecting so much that they could have gone either way. I literally marked all of the first eleven rounds as close rounds on my card. This fight though, like many fights, has a life all it's own...an ebb and a flow...and the fighters go with it or fight to turn it. I had the 7th so close that I literally couldn't call it...only reluctantly later giving it to Marquez based on a check mark I'd placed next to his 10 of an otherwise 10-10 round.

In the 9th and 10th Marquez was on his horse again, sticking and moving and he turned the tide back and won the 10th on my card, only to lose it again by drawing it to a 9-9 round based on his low blow (a point that deserved to be taken, in case my earlier point was missed). That seemed to finish Marquez, but even he didn't know it. Ten rounds of staying away from Vasquez was all he had in him. His left eye was closing and Vasquez saw it through his own swollen but open eyes. Vasquez began to work overhand rights and land both hands as Marquez went defensive in an effort to survive a fight he seemed to say afterwards he felt he had won. Well...he would have been right if he hadn't faded so very badly.

If a fighter doesn't clinch...not once, for the first 33 minutes of a fight, it's so very obvious when he does so repeatedly in the final 3 minute frame. As Vasquez chased Marquez around the ring beating him down, Marquez stopped only to grab and hold. Spreading his arms to free himself and show that he was not initiating or perpetuating the clinches, Vasquez separated himself as soon as he could and continued his singleminded quest: to win the 12th round so big that he could overcome any hole he'd dug. He did just that. He was trying to avoid it going to the cards and if he'd had 30 more seconds or if the ref hadn't stepped in with seconds to spare, he would have knocked Marquez out. He didn't have to. He beat him so thoroughly that he took the 12th on my card 10-8 before the standing 8 count, making the final round on my card 10-7.

When I added up my card, I found mine matched the tie-breaking card of the third judge: 113-112 for Vasquez. The other two judges saw it for each fighter 114-111 and it was close enough most rounds that I could understand those scores even if I don't agree. That means a two round swing and two judges went opposite directions in two respective rounds. As I've said, apart from the 12th, every round was close, if not exactly a pick'em (except the 7th...toss a coin for that one).

Now to the disgrace that is Showtime boxing. Okay...that's a little harsh. I subscribe and tune in, so how bad could it be? Pretty bad. I can live with the TV camera ogling of the ring card girls. They're a part of boxing and if I were there live and they were good looking, I would stare too. Showing them between every round in a boxing broadcast (instead of, for example, cherry-picking the cutest girls to showcase) is kind of cheesy. But after, all...it's boxing...like Ricky Hatton often says in a completely different context...it's not a tickling contest, is it now?

I can even live with the classless pre-fight interviews by the clueless stiff of a barbie doll shamelessly promoting Elite XC fighting by interviewing MMA fighters to promote (I guess to boxing fans?) that newest venture by Showtime. I find it repugnant, but at least I can TiVo fast forward right past it. With a Showtime broadcast, I make sure to leave enough lead time.

The show promotions that litter the bottom 20% or so of the screen during actual rounds is just disgusting. I want to reach out and (metaphorically) punch the producer of the show right in the mouth. If I want to see the Tudors or the L Word or Dexter (which I do in fact, enjoy), I'll tune in...but exactly what demographic are you trying to reach here? I think no thought at all is put into it. I think it's just low class carnival barker salesmanship.

Now, speaking of carnival barkers, Steve Albert has got to go. How did this guy get this job? We've already tuned in. Please stop screaming at us. Please stop telling us how great the fight is that we're already watching. Do you think we'll all tune away unless you remind us how great the fight is? Clearly you do. In the 6th round, having to listen to "they make for such great entertainment! It's almost beyond belief!!! shouted so loudly you'd think he were standing next to a jet engine is hardly worthwhile comment. If by the 10th round of this fight in particular anyone has tuned out, I don't think that this nugget is going to keep them interested: "Jack Nicholson! Taking it all in!! You know it's a good spectacle when he's here!!!" I would prefer they trained a monkey to screech incessantly between rounds, then Al Bernstein could still punctuate those screeches with the same comments between the monkey's breaths and we could drop the pretense altogether.

Speaking of Al, he is the sole redeeming part of the broadcasts...but he's so overwhelmed by the crap that he's like Archie Manning on the 1970s Saints. It's hard to see how good he is because he has zero supporting cast. Al astutely pointed out that he didn't have it all that close after the 5th, mildly doing his best to answer the caterwauling of Albert that the fight was so close it was the greatest single spectacle in the history of mankind. In fact, to that point...while it was indeed an exceptionally good fight...Marquez was winning all of the rounds. One knock on Al and it's a mild one: In the 10th, Al said that he felt the fight was so good that he almost didn't care how it was scored. Well...Al, come on and commit. If it's that great a fight, say you don't care. It's okay. That shows respect for the fighers efforts. That's what you meant to say, isn't it?

This was a great fight. A definite early contender for fight of the year. The boxer versus the puncher. Two great fighters in the prime of their careers, matching skills, wills and fists for the WBC (and concensus Ring) championship at 122 pounds. These were little men with big hearts and heavy hands. I appreciate it being brought to me not on pay per view, I'll say that. It worked out for Vasquez that he indeed has the heavier hands. It worked out for all of us that we got to witness it. What a fight!

Klitschko Jabs His Way to a Second Belt

2008-02-24T00:00:00.007-05:00

Okay...so Wladimir Klitschko's jab didn't make quite the pulp of Sultan Ibragimov's face that I predicted it would. My tenth round mercy stoppage by the referee didn't come to pass, but Ibragimov's predicted inability to elude Klitschko's jab was downright prescient. Of course, everyone and their brother saw this coming a mile away, but I humbly think that ought not dull the shine. Klitschko picked up his 50th win, unified the two alphabet heavyweight belts at stake and did so on auto-pilot.

After a dancing with the stars first round where at least Ibragimov showed he tried to engage two or three times (giving him the round), Klitschko pitched a shutout on my card. I will describe round two and you can just imagine it repeated over and over until round ten when the tedium was interrupted by Ibragamov frustratedly (and literally) tackling Klitschko to the canvas in an effort to disrupt the repeating reel. It didn't work.

In the second round, Wladimir Klitschko got his left jab working. He stepped on Ibragimov's foot and the fighters were warned to avoid stepping on each other's feet by the referee. Ibragimov threw a few wild looping punches that missed. The round ended. Rinse, repeat.

It wasn't quite that bad, but that was truly the story of the fight. Ibragimov was in fact hurt once or twice and the ropes obviously saved him from hitting the canvas in the 9th, when Klitschko landed a couple of flush consecutive straight rights and lefts, but the referee didn't see it. I should add here that I find that kind of thing baffling, unless the referee was so far out of position behind the fighters that he didn't see Ibragimov sit down on the ropes and be launched back to a standing position. I suspect that's the case because there really is little other explanation.

In the 10th, Ibragimov had figured out how far behind he was and did his best to frustrate Klitschko by grabbing on to him, bullying him (as best he could for being outweighed by 25 or so pounds) and generally roughousing. It failed rather miserably though, because Klitschko's style really doesn't allow it. Equally quick, far bigger and stronger and resistant to engagement (except on his terms) Klitschko was able by and large to dance away from Ibragimov's efforts. If he didn't dance away, he (astutely) leaned in and tied up and since he's so much stronger than Ibragimov, the smaller man ended up being bullied himself.

That brings me to Klitschko's major failing as a boxer, in my judgment. Keeping in mind that the criticism comes in the context of a virtual shutout by "Dr. Steelhammer" (119-109 on my card), it's that Klitschko clearly doesn't like to get hit. Now, I can hear the counterpoint...who does? Isn't boxing (as voiced by Joe Calzaghe recently), "the art of hitting without being hit"? well, sure it is. But no boxer can actually avoid being hit entirely. That seems to be Klitschko's aim. He dances away from Ibragimov as if Ibragimov has the power to hurt him, where if he stood his ground and stayed in the pocket, he could exploit the opportunities borne of overextension and desperation by the smaller man. He could slip and counterpunch occasionally. Instead, he skips away to re-set and try to move forward and exploit his reach and strength advantage on his own terms. That works well against smaller men who can't reach him to compete with him and who don't have staggering power... but he'll be exposed (again....and again?) by big punchers who will pursue him, even at their peril, as he backs away.

I presume that his dance-away style was crafted to accomodate the reality that he can't withstand power punches. Well...that's a problem in the heavyweight division. It's a problem that's going to find him again and again against bigger punchers. It was evident against Sam Peter and if he is forced to fight Peter again (and odds are, that will eventually happen, hopefully sooner than later), we will see whether Peter can knock him out rather than down (three times, as before).

The best boxers make their livelihood living in the pocket, slipping punches, turning away from punches and minimizing damage while targeting their opposite, making their opponent pay for standing in with them and wearing them out. They are relaxed at their work. Peter had to learn how to beat that kind of boxer to convincingly stop James Toney in their rematch. He did. Will that help him against Klitschko who still looks on the verge of panic when pressed? Well...not exactly, but if he can change for Toney so distinctly, then there's hope that Peter can change in a different way for Klitschko.

The way to beat Klitschko is to come at him at rapidly changing lateral angles and be ready to exploit having put him off balance. He fights poorly off his back foot and gets off balance too easily. That's the downside of being so tall and muscularly top-heavy. From one angle (the front), he's rock solid and light on his feet (at times), but from the side, he's unsteady. A good unexpected shot as he tries to adjust, even to the chest, would put him on his rump. Is there a boxer out there right now that can do it? Maybe Peter. Probably noone else.

The official judges were unanimous, but I fail to see how one came up with 117-111. The other two at 118-110 and 119-11 make more sense. I tend to think that the size differential prompted some sympathy for Ibragimov such that when he showed activity, even when it wasn't particularly effective, it was rewarded over the continuous but markedly unsexy connected jabs of Klitschko.

The HBO broadcast was solid and I can only assume that as many as two of the official judges must have sided with Harold Lederman in the 6th round when he gave Ibragimov the round. I could not believe it because almost nothing different had occurred in the round, but my eyes must decieve me? In any case, Jim Lampley slipping in a very funny football reference in the 10th was a highlight: "credit for the tackle goes to Ibragimov!" One knock is that I think they could actually stand to give Klitschko a few seconds of airtime to trumpet his charitable work post-fight because, as they acknowledged prior to the fight, Klitschko sees his responsibility as heavyweight champion to extend beyond the ring. I think they ought to encourage that instinct. It elevates the sport and turns boxers into ambassadors of and for the sport. It's good for Klitschko and right now what is good for him is good for them and good for the sport.

Emmanuel Steward's advice to Klitschko between the 11th and 12th rounds seemed downright foolish. Only Lennox Lewis' proposed interpretation saved Steward from looking frankly stupid. Perhaps indeed Steward was trying to motivate a Wladimir Klitschko that only he knows when he told him that it would be "really bad if [he] didn't knock him out..." in the 12th and final round. Perhaps indeed Steward knew Klitschko would want that kind of motivation planted in his head to spur him into the final round. But...that's a very dangerous opinion to voice to a fighter who has essentially dominated the action all night and who, going into the last round against a desparate championship caliber opponent about to lose his belt and his undefeated record, has shown a pre-disposition in the past to being knocked out by one punch. I guess Steward was so certain that Ibragimov had no chance to hurt his fighter that he could revert to fight announcer mode. Were I a trainer (and I am not), I don't think I could ever be that comfortable, given those circumstances.

Wladimir Klitschko continued to establish himself as the heavyweight to which all roads lead if any other heavyweight is looking to establish dominance. Given the interesting revival of Nicolai Valuev, could we see that giant giving Wladimir a little taste of his own medicine down the road? I wonder. Until then (and here's hoping Vitali stays retired), Wladimir smartly remains the class of the division, jabbing his way to a new belt. As Max Kellerman of HBO mentioned a couple of times in the course of the evening, Larry Holmes and Lennox Lewis were widely criticized at times for their use of a heavy jab to win decisions. What Kellerman didn't add wasn't perhaps quite as obvious to the uninitiated...that company like that is the kind of company that Klitschko is surely seeking and that Lewis and Holmes, though criticized at the time, are now widely considered to be the best heavyweights of their respective generations. Klitschko is starting to look like he deserves mention in that company. If he beats Sam Peter more convincingly, he'll deserve it. I wonder if he can. I hope we get to find out.

Prediction: Klitschko Beats Up Ibragimov

2008-02-23T22:01:00.003-05:00

While the Pavlik/Taylor II rerun is on, I'm logging on to post my bold prediction. Wladimir Klitschko wears down, beats up and disposes of a game but badly overmatched Sultan Ibragimov. Okay, so if you know the fighters coming into this two-belt unification belt (hallelujah, by the way!), it's not that bold.

Here is the way I expect tomorrow's post to read: "Nobody said Ibragimov couldn't fight, but if there were ever a match that showcased the difference between a heavyweight and a super heavyweight, it was this one. Ibragimov has good hand speed, sound boxing skills honed in an impressive amateur career and a good chin. None of that mattered because all of that can now be said of Wladimir Klitschko (yes, even the chin now...because he's been tested...and experience, commitment and knowing what the worst holds can, in rare cases, improve a fighters chin) and Klitschko outweighs Ibragimov by some 25 pounds of solid muscle, standing a good 5 inches taller and outreaching him by at least that. He was equally fast, his jab is improved and he's learned (the hard way) to fight tall. He hides his sledgehammer right hand better than ever behind that jab and Ibragimov's only edge (his footspeed) didn't matter because Ibragimov couldn't effectively use it to try and move laterally (because doing so kept him in range of the jab), so instead he tried to duck and slip the jab all night and ran into it over and over. The 10th round stoppage in which the referee stepped in was merciful because Ibragimov wouldn't have fallen, except by a literal sledge and the sight of him after ten rounds of running into that jab was frightening. He never had a chance."

Okay...is that specific enough? I am astounded that the otherwise amazing Teddy Atlas picked the 5-1 underdog Ibragimov to win. I'll admit that you could have knocked me over with a feather when Paul Williams lost to Carlos Quintana (the template Teddy cited for a successful Ibragimov fight plan) and that's why they fight the fights, but that's 147 pounds of apples as compared to 245 pounds of oranges. Williams is an unorthodox super-volume puncher who stopped punching (okay, so Quintana's movement may have had a little to do with it), while Klitschko is the heavyweight boxing equivalent of a piledriver. That piston jab is hardly a volume weapon. It's an all-too-accurate can't-get-away-from-it face cruncher. It comes every time you try to advance on him, not every one and a half seconds to confuse you. It also doesn't so much confuse as stun. It's also followed occasionally by a wrecking ball right hand. That knee-buckler isn't anywhere in Paul Williams' arsenal and never will be. With all due respect to Teddy, the comparison simply isn't apt.

I will save more insights for the post-fight wrap up. Klitschko by TKO in the tenth.

Taylor's Best Not Enough To Beat Pavlik

2008-02-17T21:48:00.004-05:00

Jermaine "Bad Intentions" Taylor was razor sharp, highly motivated and as patient and quick as he's ever been. Yet he still could not outgun, consistently outquick or ultimately outpoint the still undefeated concensus middleweight champion Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik. Pavlik went the full 12 rounds for the first time in his career and proved he could sustain his attack, defense and skills the whole championship distance against what will probably prove to be his toughest test anytime soon. For him, that's a good thing now that he is the biggest shark in the deepest waters of his division and at the deep end of the pond, fights often go the distance.

As for this fight, what was expected to be another war of mutual assured destruction with the greater superpower prevailing turned out to be a tactical war of attrition...in which the greater superpower still prevailed. With control over the rematch weight and with a new old trainer in tow, Jermaine Taylor imagined that his very best could beat Kelly Pavlik, but he was wrong. Pavlik proved too fundamentally sound and quick-handed to be decisioned by Taylor.

In this column, before the fight, I called the Ring Magazine's prediction of a 5th round KO of Taylor by Pavlik a disservice to Taylor. After all, before Pavlik took Taylor's middleweight crown in their first fight on September 29 of 2007, Taylor had never lost. He'd beat the man who beat the man. He rose to the occasion against Bernard Hopkins, decisioning the champ twice in succession. Hopkins had not lost in 20 title defenses. Sure, he'd fought down to some competition since, but he'd never lost though he'd lost some lustre. To write him off was to ignore his will to win and his significant skills.

In the pre-fight hype to this rematch, Taylor's trainer implied that Taylor had taken Pavlik too lightly the first time around. Coming off Pavlik's destruction of Miranda, that's almost hard to believe...but I will grant that after watching the rematch, Taylor was much better prepared this time around. I've also called Taylor an exemplary mimic without a real style of his own and while there's some truth to that, his level best performance showed me that his style is his athleticism. He did not try to mimic Pavlik, nor was he lazy and dropping his off hand to his waist as he's prone to do. He defended as well as he could all night long against Pavlik's sledgehammer jab and turned away a ton of right hand bombs from Pavlik. While his style is still very much based in his super-athleticism, he did defend, had a game plan, stayed focused and executed it for nearly the entire fight. It just wasn't enough.

I believed that Taylor's best chance would be to move laterally to prevent Pavlik from setting to throw. He didn't really do that, so he didn't really change his style at all. Keeping in mind that 4 of the 5 rounds that went to Taylor on my card (3, 6, 7 and 10) were clearly his (only Taylor's round 2 was close on my card)...he managed at times to be clearly the better fighter. But by fights end, those times were too few...and ultimately too poorly sustained. Pavlik was consistent, pressuring Taylor constantly. When he pushed or slapped his jab, he lost rounds...but when he snapped it and committed to it, the rounds tilted invariably his way.

I will eschew a round-by-round recap in favor of the flavor of the fight because those round-by-round regurgitations can be tedious (don't read my next one). This was two great fighters at their best for ten rounds. Taylor fought in spurts, but when he sustained his attack he was faster and more accurate. Fully 6 of the 7 rounds that I gave to Pavlik, I considered close and one (round 5) I considered almost too close to call. Keeping in mind that flipping that round for Taylor would have resulted in a draw on my card, my opinion was apparently shared by only one of the official judges. My score card read 115-113 for Pavlik by the end of the fight, but the official scorecards were almost all more lopsided, all for Pavlik too: 117-111; 116-112 and; 115-113.

Please look to the last paragraph in sentence two. See the issue? this was a 12 round fight. Unfortunately for Taylor, he faded as predicted by Pavlik's trainer. He waited a long time to do it and put up a heck of a performance ...for ten rounds. On my card, the fight was dead even after 10 rounds, with Taylor having won the 10th convincingly. In that 10th, he looked the fresher fighter and was making Pavlik look a step slow. Then in the 11th, for the first time in the fight, Taylor found his back to the ropes and when that happened, it seemed rewrite the upset ending.

Until then, Taylor had spent 10 rounds making sure that his back was never on the ropes. He definitely intended to avoid that mistake, made repeatedly in the first fight. Resting on the ropes is a mistake he could get away with against lesser opponents and it got him in big trouble repeatedly in the first tilt with Pavlik, whose relentless aggression and granite chin allow him to stand in the pocket and throw until his opponent wilts or spins out. Taylor kept the fight moving around the center of the ring for the first 30 minutes of the fight, but that made his having allowed it in the 32nd minute so very obvious. By the 12th round, Taylor was tying up when he should have been realizing that the last round of a close fight is where the rubber meets the road. It didn't matter. He was out of gas (though, to be fair, he would apparently still have lost on the official scorecards of two judges even if he'd floored Pavlik).

The HBO team did a noteworthy job this night. In the third, Larry Merchant pointed out that Taylor looked more disciplined and indeed he did. Taylor wasn't as frenetic as in the first fight, recognizing that he was in for a real test (ultimately, too great a test). Emmanuel Steward pointed out Taylor's not having put his back near the ropes during the fourth round, a deliberate plan that lasted until the 11th. Steward also pointed out the sneaky weight of Pavlik's jab in the fourth, at a time that it wasn't necessarily obvious that the jab was doing damage that could slow Taylor as the fight went on. Even Lederman got it right for a while until he revealed he had Taylor up by 2 halfway through the fight, which not only failed to match my card (I had it even), but pretty clearly failed to match the official scorecards. Hearing Lederman try to educate Merchant on-air as to how to score fights was a lowlight, but really the only glaring one of the broadcast.

The bottom line is that we witnessed the true crowning of what may turn out to be the toughest middleweight in a very long time. I called Pavlik to knock Taylor out in the 10th, but even that was failing to give Taylor enough credit. While he faded by the 11th (and got in a little trouble for the only time in the fight), he was determined to give his best, something he said he hadn't done the first time around. His best has always been better than anyone else's. Not this time. There's a new best middleweight in the world now. His name is Kelly Pavlik.

Okay, Now that Calzaghe v. Hopkins Is For Real

2008-02-12T22:27:00.005-05:00

I'm gonna buy it on April 19, 2008 and so are you if you love boxing. I'll buy it for the same reason I couldn't stay away from Hopkins v. Wright. These are great boxers and when great boxers fight, realfightfans should tune in. It's chess with fists and unlike conventional chess, someone can get knocked out (though to be realistic, when great fighters fight, knockouts don't necessarily follow).

I guess we should have seen this fight coming when we saw Hopkins taunting Calzaghe on stage before the Kessler fight (or was it the Manfredo fiasco?...anyway...). Hopkins' teaming with GoldenBoy Promotions and Oscar DeLaHoya was the best move Bernard could have made in his boxing dotage. I give him credit. At an age where most boxers are scrambling for fights to stay relevant, he's put himself in a position to make big fights with the biggest fighters near his weight and promote them too! Notwithstanding his careful crafting of an anti-establishment image with the now-abandoned executioner's mask and the 20 consecutive middleweight title defenses, Hopkins has managed to amass this kind of juice with a purely counterpunching defensive style that can best be described favorably as an acquired taste and unfavorably as dirty and boring. That he knocked out Oscar on a body punch (then forged a promoting alliance with him!) is more a testament to Oscar's overreaching to test destiny as it is Bernard's weighty hands.

Don't get me wrong. Hopkins can fight and he carefully brings just enough to match and (in most cases) outdo his opponent. He conserves energy, turns his opponents, infights, elbows, ties up and punches on breaks and between breaths. This often ends up discouraging and wearing his opponents down. That very style (and his legendary obsessiveness with training and fitness generally) has allowed him to fight at an elite level into his 40s. But unless Calzaghe ages before our eyes, Hopkins will more than have his hands full with the Welshman.

Joe Calzaghe burst into this US fight fan's consciousness at the same time he did for most, I think. When he unforgivingly dismantled the seeming heir apparent Jeff "Left Hook" Lacy. That night, he was tough to like at first when he returned to his corner after the first round of that fight, telling his cornermen (about Lacy), "he's shite!", that comment proved absolutely true (at least that night, relative to Calzaghe). Lacy, who I thought looked like a mini-Mike Tyson coming in, has spent the last several years trying to rebound from that devastating defeat and rebuild his shattered confidence. Calzaghe fought great that night the way great fighters do. Great fighters fight great on big nights (and by the way, Jeff Lacy should take comfort and confidence from that...Calzaghe brought his best that night because he expected a real test...that he didn't get one may speak to Lacy's overconfidence more than a skill mismatch...although to digress further...Lacy has never looked the same since).

Calzaghe has also fought down to some opponent's levels since, but he again elevated his game to take on the undefeated Mikkel Kessler and showed another gear that the technically sound, young, hard punching and willing Kessler had no answer for. Now...the big question is: will Calzaghe's workrate style pose a problem for Hopkins? Heck, yes! Now...I can't help but wonder if Hopkins sees something we don't because on paper this is not a good fight for him. It may simply be that there's no better fight left out there for Hopkins. He doesn't need Roy Jones and Calzaghe has called him out. Calzaghe has proven he can pack all of Wales into a 60,000 seat venue and the kind of overseas buys he can generate on PPV carries the kind of juice that brings big fighters to the table. Has it enticed Hopkins in over his head? I think so. But then maybe at this stage and with his hall of fame credentials well in hand, Hopkins simply doesn't care.

While Hopkins' style remains intact at his age, that's because it doesn't rely on quickness as much as it does guile and control of pace and position. Hopkins punches and ties up, he shoulders and butts and turns. All of this can be negated by an exceptionally accurate volume puncher with sound boxing skills. If there ever such a fighter, it's Joe Calzaghe. He shoeshined his way to a quick decision against the overmatched Peter Manfredo of Contender fame and he's perfectly willing to let volume replace power as a primary tactic. He'll surely come in high as a kite and prepared to throw 100+ punches a round. I imagine he'll be in perfect condition and carrying the kind of concern into the ring that makes a great fighter fight great. I'm not sure that Hopkins will carry any more concern than usual. He's been in a number of big fights now and probably thinks that he'll be able to discourage and slow Calzaghe with well placed hard head shots...or maybe some body work (which probably is the best route to take). I think that underestimates Calzaghe's willingness to absorb punishment to acheive his goal.

Perhaps Hopkins read Calzaghe's autobiography (excerpted in Ring Magazine) where Calzaghe makes clear he's no fan of taking punishment and has no interest in boxing as a means to prove he's a tough guy. While that's surely true, no fighter amasses the kind of undefeated career that Calzaghe has without being extraordinarily willing. Further, no fighter amasses this many victories consecutively without a single loss without entering the ring every time with the ever-increasing weight of that record weighing heavily on his shoulders. Calzaghe isn't just fighting a big fight. He's fighting for his legacy...to stay undefeated. He's fighting for a claim to a level of boxing immortality that Hopkins can no longer aspire to. He won't give up his "0" easily. He won't give it up without a fight. In the end, I don't think he'll give it up at all. Calzaghe by decision 116-112.