Calzaghe v. Hopkins - Exactly What It Was Supposed To Be

I didn't post before this fight because I knew I'd written a prediction about it about two months ago. I didn't go back to read it before watching the fight to avoid polluting my scoring with that prediction. I'll excerpt my prediction here:

"Now...the big question is: will Calzaghe's workrate style pose a problem for Hopkins? Heck, yes! Now...I can't help but wonder if Hopkins sees something we don't because on paper this is not a good fight for him. It may simply be that there's no better fight left out there for Hopkins.... Has it enticed Hopkins in over his head? I think so. But then maybe at this stage and with his hall of fame credentials well in hand, Hopkins simply doesn't care.While Hopkins' style remains intact at his age, that's because it doesn't rely on quickness as much as it does guile and control of pace and position. Hopkins punches and ties up, he shoulders and butts and turns. All of this can be negated by an exceptionally accurate volume puncher with sound boxing skills. If there ever such a fighter, it's Joe Calzaghe. ... Calzaghe isn't just fighting a big fight. He's fighting for his legacy...to stay undefeated. He's fighting for a claim to a level of boxing immortality that Hopkins can no longer aspire to. He won't give up his "0" easily. He won't give it up without a fight. In the end, I don't think he'll give it up at all. Calzaghe by decision 116-112."

Well...except for that "flash knockdown" (Calzaghe's words) in the first round, the above could just as easily have been written about the fight afterward. In fact, on my card the knockdown making it a 10-8 Hopkins first round is the only thing standing between me and a perfect prediction (relative to my own card). I had it 116-111, exactly the same as Chuck Giampa the tie-breaking (at least in the order they were announced) ringside judge. That Adelaide Byrd scored the fight 114-113 for Hopkins (making it a split decision) is pretty unreal. I saw only four of the nine rounds that I gave Calzaghe as close rounds and three of those rounds would have had to be called for Hopkins to yield the result that judge Byrd came up with. Meanwhile, of the three that went Hopkins' way on my card, two were close with one of those being too close to call.

In other words, of six total close rounds, judge Byrd had to give five to Hopkins. That seems to be bias, plain and simple. Now...even if we assume that judge Byrd made the mistake of only watching Hopkins...wouldn't she still have seen Calzaghe hitting him with significantly greater frequency? I suppose the counterargument is that the more "significant shots" were landed by Hopkins, but that argument falls flat in the face of the full pursuit that Calzaghe had to implement to force Hopkins to fight. And whatever else it is, a boxing match is supposed to be a fight. The third judge had it for Joe 115-112, a score that is definitely well within reason.

Now...I found myself fighting my own prejudice against Hopkins' single counterpunch and hug style and I had to do it over Max Kellerman's constant genuflecting before the genius of Hopkins' sage "energy conserving" style. Kellerman is generally an astute commentator, but he missed the mark badly in this tilt. He seems to see Hopkins as a throwback fighter whose style makes him special. While there is truth to that, Hopkins has deteriorated into a one-trick pony. It's a good trick, but it's so ugly and boring that I simply hate to watch it. Crouch behind the left shoulder in a wide stance and wait and back away and circle away from the opponents power hand until they become frustrated and try to fight. Then jump in with a single straight punch and whether hitting or missing, clinch. In the clinch, bull your head and pin the other fighters arm on the off-referee side, turn the fighter away, punch in the kidney, body or side or back of the head, let go and push off. Complain liberally about getting hit on the break or rabbit punching or low blows. Hitting on the break is a bonus. Repeat.

It's so boring as to be stupefying and it forces me to root for the other guy. Calzaghe wanted to fight. He had to chase Hopkins to make him fight. All of that can be forgiven, however. That's fighting and in the immortal words of Ricky Hatton, "this ain't a tickling match, now is it?"What cannot be forgiven is the gentlemanly way that the ungentlemanly Hopkins is treated by HBO and Kellerman himself. Avoiding controversy, Kellerman danced around Hopkins' tenth round fakery rather than confronting him with it. Hopkins used a glancing glove-sided blow just below the beltline to take a four minute break. This was more than just an old man taking a break from being outpointed (which it was, too), but it was Hopkins' trying to lay late groundwork for a point deduction that he didn't deserve. In that vein, I'm surprised to find myself thankful for the almost completely otherwise ineffectual "I'm firm, but I'm fair" referee Jose Cortez. He never took a point from Hopkins when he should have, but at least he didn't take one from Calzaghe when he shouldn't have.

This was a subpar performance for the HBO team. There was apparently no amount of punching on the break, head butting, shoving, arm-pinning and hitting from behind that Hopkins could do to convince the reverent assembled group that he was anything other than "a physical specimen who, at age 43, remains a challenge for any fighter in the division and whose hall-of-fame credentials are as impeccable as his tough-to-solve masterful defensive fighting style." This guy is a dirty fighter who has cowed even the HBO team into bowing to him. While I've always disliked his style, I've respected him as a shrewd businessman and boxer who by sheer will managed to overcome the boringness (did I just make up a word?) of his boxing style. Now even that is erased. Some may say he tried to use the rules to buy himself some time, try to turn the tide and throw his opponent off-balance. Hogwash. I see a man who defiles the ring by pretending injury where there is none. Period. Shame on you Bernard. I hope you never return to the ring. I will not watch you again.

Who should Calzaghe fight next? He mentioned becoming a "giant killer" when asked if he would consider fighting Roy Jones. I would pay to see that (and it bears mention that I appreciated NOT having to pay for Calzaghe/Hopkins...something I anticipated having to do...), though I can't help but wonder why Calzaghe wants these old lions of the division. But of course the answer is obvious. That's the biggest name and the biggest fight. Roy showed he may still have some game against the thoroughly shot Trinidad, but he too will probably get smoked by Calzaghe. I wonder what catchweight they would use and I wonder if Joe might have a little more trouble with even the diminished Roy. Roy has a suspect chin, but Calzaghe probably won't be able to test it seriously and a bold Roy is a dangerous Roy. I'll have to think about that one before I can commit to a prediction. Until next time....

A Mid-April Night's Dream - Results

A great many thanks again to both HBO and Showtime for packing Saturday night April 12, 2008 with fun fights. They weren't all great fights, but it was great to watch them all. Here's how I did:

PREDICTION
Cotto v. Gomez - This is the gimme. While Gomez has definitely acquitted himself best of the Contender TV show fighters, he's in about two tiers too deep tonight. Cotto is the best welter in the world right now and I've never seen him come unprepared. Perhaps this is some HBO's way of both rewarding and punishing Alfonso Gomez for retiring Arturo Gatti so ignominiously. Gomez is going to get hammered. Cotto is faster, stronger and while Gomez is no tomato can, that's not going to matter. The difference in speed and accuracy takes the fight out of Gomez by round four at the latest and though Gomez stands in to absorb a lot of punishment, it's over by TKO stoppage in the seventh.

RESULT
Okay so the reason I front-loaded this prediction is because it was so easy. It turned out exactly as I knew it would. Gomez showed toughness, but Cotto made Gomez look like the club fighter he is, relative to him. If anything, it was a little more lopsided than I thought it would be. It was a sparring session for Cotto, who hardly broke a sweat. He was clearly faster and hits so much harder that the wear showed almost immediately. There were three knockdowns over five rounds and it was stopped between the fifth and sixth rounds by the doctors because Gomez was taking too much unanswered punishment, resulting in a TKO stoppage for Cotto. To be fair, Gomez only looked so bad because Cotto looked so good. The knockdowns were the first, second and third of Gomez' career and the two that were clear took place on a hard jab and a body shot, respectively. I was glad to see it stopped, even though Gomez had acquitted himself better in the fifth than the fourth because he's a tough kid and he'd keep getting up and standing in.

COMMENTS
Wow. Cotto looks amazing. Although I think that even Larry Merchant, who was very much on his game, gave Gomez more credit for top level skill than he probably deserves, Cotto just blew Gomez out. Gomez is a cut above club fighter, with skills but no punching power, a good chin and a few different punches. He's got no defense but his chin and his speed is only slightly above average. He had no business being in with Cotto. Cotto displays super-elite handspeed, a good chin, a tactician's aptitude and hands so heavy that he could be knocking out middleweights twenty pounds north of welterweight. As I watched, I was thinking about how good Sugar Shane Mosley is to have stayed with Cotto at age 35, just months ago. On my card, Shane took the close fight because Cotto coasted toward the end, but it was no robbery. Cotto unquestionably has super-elite skills and power and was impressive in every way in this win. Cotto is the best welterweight in the world and there is little question why Mayweather wants no part of him.



PREDICTION
Cintron v. Margarito - this is a rematch of Cintron's only loss and Margarito is a fight removed from having been outpunched and outfought by the since seemingly diminished Paul Williams. Cintron hits like a ton of bricks and has knocked almost everyone out that he's ever faced, save for Margarito...who handed him a devastating and career-derailing knockout loss. After defeating Cintron the first time around, Margarito officially became the guy in the division nobody wanted to fight for a couple of years. Though he's since become a little less scary, he's still the kryptonite to Cintron's superman. Also, Margarito not only knows that Cintron is his signature win, but he's looking to win back the respect he lost in the Williams fight. Styles make fights and Margarito gets the best of Cintron again, but this time by decision. Cintron respects the punching power of Margarito this time around and that costs him the decision.

RESULT
Well...I was right that styles make fights and I got the winner right, but Cintron couldn't stay out of the pocket and respect Margarito's power because Margarito wouldn't let him. In fact, that appears to be the reason Margarito has Cintron's number so completely. Coming out like a house on fire, Margarito pressured Cintron relentlessly and never let him breathe. This quickly became a highlight reel to illustrate why boxing isn't like other athletic endeavors. On paper, this fight is close because Cintron hits so very hard. Every fighter who's ever faced him, except quite notably Margarito, backs off in the face of his power. He hits hard. He's knocked out nearly all of his prior 28 opponents and done so spectacularly. Even since his first loss, to Margarito, he's peppered his 5-0 record with spectacular KOs. Not so against Margarito.

Margarito made it a war from the opening bell and every time Cintron landed a big punch, Cintron tried to disengage. He's accustomed to a breather after those big bell-ringers, but Margarito never paused, walking right through the heaviest shots Cintron had to offer. Following Cintron around, he overwhelmed him with accurate hard shots. Cintron had no answers and for the second time, wilted in the face of Margarito's greater will to fight. After taking every round of the first five rounds on my card, Margarito ended it on a clean left hand body shot that not only hurt Cintron badly enough to drop him to the canvas, but gave Cintron an excuse not to get back up. KO for Margarito in the sixth.

COMMENTARY
This is a career-defining (not just de-railing, like the first) loss for Cintron. The question becomes, if Cintron fights again (which he should) can fighters who aren't of Margarito's quality do to Cintron, what Margarito did twice to him? probably not. The HBO team, while they did a spectacular job of calling the fight (particularly Merchant), undersold Margarito, I think. Emmanuel Steward particularly (who trained Cintron for the fight, was in his corner, then who re-appeared to break it down post-fight for HBO) was hard on Margarito. While he gave Margarito credit for fighting a great fight, he kept saying that Margarito is not a talented fighter, which I think is wrong. Cintron is made for Margarito and interestingly, it's Cintron who makes Margarito as great as Margarito appears against him.

Keep in mind that Margarito underperformed against Paul Williams two fights ago. It's surely because Margarito underestimated Williams, something he's never done with Cintron. I find it fascinating that Margarito himself holds the HBO "comp-u-box" record for over 1,600 punches thrown in a 12 round fight (which is amazing), but he was beaten two fights ago by Williams...who until losing to to Carlos Quintana because ironically he didn't move his hands enough (they're about to rematch, happily)...was the quintessential volume puncher. I saw the Margarito/Williams fight and Williams overwhelmed Margarito! Now...watching Margarito overwhelm Cintron so thoroughly (throwing constantly...and accurately, by the way...to the tune of well over 100 punches a round), makes me wonder where that fighter was against Williams.

The answer lies in Margarito himself. The HBO team highlighted the way the fighters developed and it's telling. A multi-talented athlete, all-state high school wrestler and basketball player, Cintron found he had an aptitude for boxing, but didn't start until age 19 (late for a top level boxer). Margarito came from nothing and fought his way up, starting at least as early as age 15 in Mexico. I suspect that, coming into their first fight, Margarito resolved to test the will of the athlete Cintron and finding it wanting, resolved to do it again in the rematch. He thrives not just on testing the will of a fighter like Cintron, who on paper is a devastatingly powerful fighter, but revels in the potential to humiliate just such a fighter. He's emboldened by the prospect of that humiliation and exults in the performance of it.

In the rematch, Margarito got to exult again. Seeing Margarito, who is by no means a classy guy, waving for Cintron to rise so that he could punish him some more, was telling. He's there to punish all of the fighters who dare enter the ring with him thinking they're going to get to admire their work, be slick, get breathers between punches and showcase their skills. He's there to fight. To make war. All the more so when he perceives there is a lesson to teach. Because of his pedigree and his KO record, Cintron brings that out in Margarito perhaps in a way that noone else has. Certainly this was a different Margarito than Paul Williams met. It is Cintron himself who makes Margarito elevate his game, which is a nasty game indeed, to it's highest level and that is high indeed.

Finally, Larry Merchant's performance bears mention because it was such a pleasure. Larry, whose occasionally almost whimsical input I've found at times both mildly grating and distinctly insightful in the past, was at the top of his game. I'm very glad HBO and he could come to terms to get him back at ringside and his absence seems to have re-invigorated his interest in offering truly insightful commentary. During the fight, he described Margarito as a "truth-telling machine" in the ring, who was bringing out the truth about Kermit Cintron. If there is more to say about that, it's only that not too many welterweights could divine that truth because they'd be flat on their backs before they could finish the tough questions that Margarito was so able to skillfully administer during this particular "interview."

I also must admit that I've cribbed the sentiment Merchant expressed during the fight itself. When Jim Lampley parroted Steward's descriptions of Cintron as a special athlete for the benefit of the audience, Merchant insightfully added, "prizefighting is not a game...". ...and that, and everything it implies, is why we who love boxing, love it so much. It allows us to see beyond the skills into the soul and will of the fighter. While most fights don't get us there...and some expose ugly things about that soul...those aspects are what makes prizefighting unique among sports.



PREDICTION
Chad Dawson v. Glen Johnson - Glen Johnson is a consummate pro who came to prominence late in his career by becoming the guy to prove that Antonio Tarver's knockout of Roy Jones wasn't a fluke. He proved himself an elite level fighter and has been rewarded with a series of top level fights, acquitting himself well each time out. This time, his age and the inevitable diminishment caused by age is going to show. He'll throw and give and take, but it will prove a step too slow for Dawson. Dawson is young, hungry, fast and a hard hitter. He won't be able to take the cagey Johnson out and while he'll respect Johnson's skills enough to stay out of danger, Dawson will get the best of Johnson all night long. I see this as a clear, if not easy, decision win for Dawson.

RESULT
Well...deconstructing this one is tough because it'd be really easy to say I got it completely right. If you look at the real-life result, that seems true...but yet it's not. The real-life result: a unanimous decision for the young and undefeated WBC champion Chad Dawson over 39 year old Glen "Road Warrior" Johnson 116-112 (all three judges), handing Johnson his 12th loss in 59 decisions.

What it was was a WBC robbery. When the scorecards took an inordinately long time to tally, I felt something was wrong. It bears saying that I had the fight 116-112 for Johnson, but the fight was not really that close. This is another indication of the corruption of boxing. A young undefeated beltholder is a far more marketable commodity than an older warrior and when it is allowed to go to the cards (especially for the WBC belts) the more marketable fighter not-so-miraculously comes out on top.

This was a fun fight to watch, don't get me wrong...especially with the sound down. Dawson, determined to prove himself, gave away his height advantage all night long, offered no defense to Johnson's clean overhand (over the shoulder, actually) right hands and stupidly mixed it up much of the night as Johnson walked him down. If this sounds like Dawson lost, he did. Dawson was noticeably hurt in the 3rd, 4th, 5th and almost down in the tenth. Johnson was never hurt and never even stunned or slowed. By the twelfth, Dawson was dancing away and for my money, not to preserve a win (or did he know?) but to avoid having to get in and scrap with the tough veteran, who'd beaten him down all night. Okay... so to say Dawson might have known that he would be handed a robbery is excessive and unfair to a fighter whose desire to show his mettle all night long forced him to make mistake after mistake, but then it emphasizes the likelihood that when he disengaged, it was to avoid the punishment that Johnson chased him down all night long to inflict.

Showtime, while giving us a great fight, remains just awful on the commentary side. Al Bernstein does a serviceable job, but because he is having to respond to the black and white pronouncements of Steve Albert, he's drowned out and left wanting. For example, near the outset, Albert describes Dawson as having superlative athleticism, otherworldly speed and amazing punching power. Well...he must be unbeatable! That is not commentary...that is promotion. We're watching, Steve. Stop selling us the fight.

In the tenth, Albert, in his instantly tiresome carnival barker role screams into the microphone and into our ears, "TREMENDOUS!!! WHAT A FIGHT!!! WOW!!!" Now...why does this guy have a microphone? Are we not watching the same fight he is? How is this helping?Please...please...someone cut off this guy's mike or send him back to the Columbia School for Broadcasting. Enough said.



PREDICTION
Clinton Woods v. Antonio Tarver - This is a tough fight for me to call. I've seen Woods fight, but don't have a specific recollection of his skills, except to say he has some. As for Tarver, well...he's on the comeback trail at an age where many fighters are awaiting induction into Canastota. Tarver's mantra has always been that his masterful defensive fighting style is underappreciated by judges, but I disagree. He doesn't move his hands enough and thinks he hits harder than he does out of his southpaw stance. Making a prediction come true five years ago and being the first guy to figure out that Roy Jones had lost his edge can only carry you so far. Tarver shows up game, but Woods wants it more and Tarver continues to believe that using your face to block punches and throwing half as often as your opponent should carry the day. Woods by a boring decision over Tarver, after which Tarver vows to fight on.

RESULT
Okay, so I got this one exactly backwards. When I said I didn't know enough about Woods, I was right. I forgot, despite amazingly somehow being the WBC light heavyweight champion (see caretaker until a more marketable fighter comes along...even the aging Tarver), Woods is a tentative slow-handed british club fighter. He was made for Tarver, as long as Tarver showed up prepared. To his marginal credit, he did. So...Tarver, who loves to admire his handiwork, got to do so all night long. Potshot, turn away, grab...punch in combination, slip away, grab, push off, potshot...dance away.

It was exactly the boring fight I predicted it would be, but going Tarver's way. Tarver didn't have to move his hands too much and he was in shape, so he didn't fade. He knew this was a great late career opportunity to pick up the WBC belt and knew it would be there for the taking. For his part, Woods hardly put up a fight. Following Tarver around the ring all night so he could be sure not to avoid any good hard shots to his face, Woods played to all of Tarver's strengths. I gave every round to Tarver except a gift of the 11th to Woods and the official judges had it 116-112 (british judge?); 117-111; and 119-109 for Tarver. A blowout.

CONCLUSION
It was a fun night of boxing for a realfightfan. Many thanks to HBO and to Showtime too, though I keep beating myself up for watching Showtime boxing broadcasts with the sound on.

A Mid-April Night's Dream - Predictions

What a fun night of boxing we have coming tonight...so what the heck, I'm going to weigh in where I shouldn't. There are a few fighters fighting tonight that I don't know well enough to predict, but with that disclaimer...here goes...

Cotto v. Gomez - This is the gimme. While Gomez has definitely acquitted himself best of the Contender TV show fighters, he's in about two tiers too deep tonight. Cotto is the best welter in the world right now and I've never seen him come unprepared. Perhaps this is some HBO's way of both rewarding and punishing Alfonso Gomez for retiring Arturo Gatti so ignominiously. Gomez is going to get hammered. Cotto is faster, stronger and while Gomez is no tomato can, that's not going to matter. The difference in speed and accuracy takes the fight out of Gomez by round four at the latest and though Gomez stands in to absorb a lot of punishment, it's over by TKO stoppage in the seventh.

Cintron v. Margarito - this is a rematch of Cintron's only loss and Margarito is a fight removed from having been outpunched and outfought by the since seemingly diminished Paul Williams. Cintron hits like a ton of bricks and has knocked almost everyone out that he's ever faced, save for Margarito...who handed him a devastating and career-derailing knockout loss. After defeating Cintron the first time around, Margarito officially became the guy in the division nobody wanted to fight for a couple of years. Though he's since become a little less scary, he's still the kryptonite to Cintron's superman. Also, Margarito not only knows that Cintron is his signature win, but he's looking to win back the respect he lost in the Williams fight. Styles make fights and Margarito gets the best of Cintron again, but this time by decision. Cintron respects the punching power of Margarito this time around and that costs him the decision.

Chad Dawson v. Glen Johnson - Glen Johnson is a consummate pro who came to prominence late in his career by becoming the guy to prove that Antonio Tarver's knockout of Roy Jones wasn't a fluke. He proved himself an elite level fighter and has been rewarded with a series of top level fights, acquitting himself well each time out. This time, his age and the inevitable diminishment caused by age is going to show. He'll throw and give and take, but it will prove a step too slow for Dawson. Dawson is young, hungry, fast and a hard hitter. He won't be able to take the cagey Johnson out and while he'll respect Johnson's skills enough to stay out of danger, Dawson will get the best of Johnson all night long. I see this as a clear, if not easy, decision win for Dawson.

Clinton Woods v. Antonio Tarver - This is a tough fight for me to call. I've seen Woods fight, but don't have a specific recollection of his skills, except to say he has some. As for Tarver, well...he's on the comeback trail at an age where many fighters are awaiting induction into Canastota. Tarver's mantra has always been that his masterful defensive fighting style is underappreciated by judges, but I disagree. He doesn't move his hands enough and thinks he hits harder than he does out of his southpaw stance. Making a prediction come true five years ago and being the first guy to figure out that Roy Jones had lost his edge can only carry you so far. Tarver shows up game, but Woods wants it more and Tarver continues to believe that using your face to block punches and throwing half as often as your opponent should carry the day. Woods by a boring decision over Tarver, after which Tarver vows to fight on.

I'm really looking forward to this night of boxing. Four fights worth watching. Thanks to HBO and Showtime.