Klitschko Jabs His Way to a Second Belt

Okay...so Wladimir Klitschko's jab didn't make quite the pulp of Sultan Ibragimov's face that I predicted it would. My tenth round mercy stoppage by the referee didn't come to pass, but Ibragimov's predicted inability to elude Klitschko's jab was downright prescient. Of course, everyone and their brother saw this coming a mile away, but I humbly think that ought not dull the shine. Klitschko picked up his 50th win, unified the two alphabet heavyweight belts at stake and did so on auto-pilot.

After a dancing with the stars first round where at least Ibragimov showed he tried to engage two or three times (giving him the round), Klitschko pitched a shutout on my card. I will describe round two and you can just imagine it repeated over and over until round ten when the tedium was interrupted by Ibragamov frustratedly (and literally) tackling Klitschko to the canvas in an effort to disrupt the repeating reel. It didn't work.

In the second round, Wladimir Klitschko got his left jab working. He stepped on Ibragimov's foot and the fighters were warned to avoid stepping on each other's feet by the referee. Ibragimov threw a few wild looping punches that missed. The round ended. Rinse, repeat.

It wasn't quite that bad, but that was truly the story of the fight. Ibragimov was in fact hurt once or twice and the ropes obviously saved him from hitting the canvas in the 9th, when Klitschko landed a couple of flush consecutive straight rights and lefts, but the referee didn't see it. I should add here that I find that kind of thing baffling, unless the referee was so far out of position behind the fighters that he didn't see Ibragimov sit down on the ropes and be launched back to a standing position. I suspect that's the case because there really is little other explanation.

In the 10th, Ibragimov had figured out how far behind he was and did his best to frustrate Klitschko by grabbing on to him, bullying him (as best he could for being outweighed by 25 or so pounds) and generally roughousing. It failed rather miserably though, because Klitschko's style really doesn't allow it. Equally quick, far bigger and stronger and resistant to engagement (except on his terms) Klitschko was able by and large to dance away from Ibragimov's efforts. If he didn't dance away, he (astutely) leaned in and tied up and since he's so much stronger than Ibragimov, the smaller man ended up being bullied himself.

That brings me to Klitschko's major failing as a boxer, in my judgment. Keeping in mind that the criticism comes in the context of a virtual shutout by "Dr. Steelhammer" (119-109 on my card), it's that Klitschko clearly doesn't like to get hit. Now, I can hear the counterpoint...who does? Isn't boxing (as voiced by Joe Calzaghe recently), "the art of hitting without being hit"? well, sure it is. But no boxer can actually avoid being hit entirely. That seems to be Klitschko's aim. He dances away from Ibragimov as if Ibragimov has the power to hurt him, where if he stood his ground and stayed in the pocket, he could exploit the opportunities borne of overextension and desperation by the smaller man. He could slip and counterpunch occasionally. Instead, he skips away to re-set and try to move forward and exploit his reach and strength advantage on his own terms. That works well against smaller men who can't reach him to compete with him and who don't have staggering power... but he'll be exposed (again....and again?) by big punchers who will pursue him, even at their peril, as he backs away.

I presume that his dance-away style was crafted to accomodate the reality that he can't withstand power punches. Well...that's a problem in the heavyweight division. It's a problem that's going to find him again and again against bigger punchers. It was evident against Sam Peter and if he is forced to fight Peter again (and odds are, that will eventually happen, hopefully sooner than later), we will see whether Peter can knock him out rather than down (three times, as before).

The best boxers make their livelihood living in the pocket, slipping punches, turning away from punches and minimizing damage while targeting their opposite, making their opponent pay for standing in with them and wearing them out. They are relaxed at their work. Peter had to learn how to beat that kind of boxer to convincingly stop James Toney in their rematch. He did. Will that help him against Klitschko who still looks on the verge of panic when pressed? Well...not exactly, but if he can change for Toney so distinctly, then there's hope that Peter can change in a different way for Klitschko.

The way to beat Klitschko is to come at him at rapidly changing lateral angles and be ready to exploit having put him off balance. He fights poorly off his back foot and gets off balance too easily. That's the downside of being so tall and muscularly top-heavy. From one angle (the front), he's rock solid and light on his feet (at times), but from the side, he's unsteady. A good unexpected shot as he tries to adjust, even to the chest, would put him on his rump. Is there a boxer out there right now that can do it? Maybe Peter. Probably noone else.

The official judges were unanimous, but I fail to see how one came up with 117-111. The other two at 118-110 and 119-11 make more sense. I tend to think that the size differential prompted some sympathy for Ibragimov such that when he showed activity, even when it wasn't particularly effective, it was rewarded over the continuous but markedly unsexy connected jabs of Klitschko.

The HBO broadcast was solid and I can only assume that as many as two of the official judges must have sided with Harold Lederman in the 6th round when he gave Ibragimov the round. I could not believe it because almost nothing different had occurred in the round, but my eyes must decieve me? In any case, Jim Lampley slipping in a very funny football reference in the 10th was a highlight: "credit for the tackle goes to Ibragimov!" One knock is that I think they could actually stand to give Klitschko a few seconds of airtime to trumpet his charitable work post-fight because, as they acknowledged prior to the fight, Klitschko sees his responsibility as heavyweight champion to extend beyond the ring. I think they ought to encourage that instinct. It elevates the sport and turns boxers into ambassadors of and for the sport. It's good for Klitschko and right now what is good for him is good for them and good for the sport.

Emmanuel Steward's advice to Klitschko between the 11th and 12th rounds seemed downright foolish. Only Lennox Lewis' proposed interpretation saved Steward from looking frankly stupid. Perhaps indeed Steward was trying to motivate a Wladimir Klitschko that only he knows when he told him that it would be "really bad if [he] didn't knock him out..." in the 12th and final round. Perhaps indeed Steward knew Klitschko would want that kind of motivation planted in his head to spur him into the final round. But...that's a very dangerous opinion to voice to a fighter who has essentially dominated the action all night and who, going into the last round against a desparate championship caliber opponent about to lose his belt and his undefeated record, has shown a pre-disposition in the past to being knocked out by one punch. I guess Steward was so certain that Ibragimov had no chance to hurt his fighter that he could revert to fight announcer mode. Were I a trainer (and I am not), I don't think I could ever be that comfortable, given those circumstances.

Wladimir Klitschko continued to establish himself as the heavyweight to which all roads lead if any other heavyweight is looking to establish dominance. Given the interesting revival of Nicolai Valuev, could we see that giant giving Wladimir a little taste of his own medicine down the road? I wonder. Until then (and here's hoping Vitali stays retired), Wladimir smartly remains the class of the division, jabbing his way to a new belt. As Max Kellerman of HBO mentioned a couple of times in the course of the evening, Larry Holmes and Lennox Lewis were widely criticized at times for their use of a heavy jab to win decisions. What Kellerman didn't add wasn't perhaps quite as obvious to the uninitiated...that company like that is the kind of company that Klitschko is surely seeking and that Lewis and Holmes, though criticized at the time, are now widely considered to be the best heavyweights of their respective generations. Klitschko is starting to look like he deserves mention in that company. If he beats Sam Peter more convincingly, he'll deserve it. I wonder if he can. I hope we get to find out.

Prediction: Klitschko Beats Up Ibragimov

While the Pavlik/Taylor II rerun is on, I'm logging on to post my bold prediction. Wladimir Klitschko wears down, beats up and disposes of a game but badly overmatched Sultan Ibragimov. Okay, so if you know the fighters coming into this two-belt unification belt (hallelujah, by the way!), it's not that bold.

Here is the way I expect tomorrow's post to read: "Nobody said Ibragimov couldn't fight, but if there were ever a match that showcased the difference between a heavyweight and a super heavyweight, it was this one. Ibragimov has good hand speed, sound boxing skills honed in an impressive amateur career and a good chin. None of that mattered because all of that can now be said of Wladimir Klitschko (yes, even the chin now...because he's been tested...and experience, commitment and knowing what the worst holds can, in rare cases, improve a fighters chin) and Klitschko outweighs Ibragimov by some 25 pounds of solid muscle, standing a good 5 inches taller and outreaching him by at least that. He was equally fast, his jab is improved and he's learned (the hard way) to fight tall. He hides his sledgehammer right hand better than ever behind that jab and Ibragimov's only edge (his footspeed) didn't matter because Ibragimov couldn't effectively use it to try and move laterally (because doing so kept him in range of the jab), so instead he tried to duck and slip the jab all night and ran into it over and over. The 10th round stoppage in which the referee stepped in was merciful because Ibragimov wouldn't have fallen, except by a literal sledge and the sight of him after ten rounds of running into that jab was frightening. He never had a chance."

Okay...is that specific enough? I am astounded that the otherwise amazing Teddy Atlas picked the 5-1 underdog Ibragimov to win. I'll admit that you could have knocked me over with a feather when Paul Williams lost to Carlos Quintana (the template Teddy cited for a successful Ibragimov fight plan) and that's why they fight the fights, but that's 147 pounds of apples as compared to 245 pounds of oranges. Williams is an unorthodox super-volume puncher who stopped punching (okay, so Quintana's movement may have had a little to do with it), while Klitschko is the heavyweight boxing equivalent of a piledriver. That piston jab is hardly a volume weapon. It's an all-too-accurate can't-get-away-from-it face cruncher. It comes every time you try to advance on him, not every one and a half seconds to confuse you. It also doesn't so much confuse as stun. It's also followed occasionally by a wrecking ball right hand. That knee-buckler isn't anywhere in Paul Williams' arsenal and never will be. With all due respect to Teddy, the comparison simply isn't apt.

I will save more insights for the post-fight wrap up. Klitschko by TKO in the tenth.

Taylor's Best Not Enough To Beat Pavlik

Jermaine "Bad Intentions" Taylor was razor sharp, highly motivated and as patient and quick as he's ever been. Yet he still could not outgun, consistently outquick or ultimately outpoint the still undefeated concensus middleweight champion Kelly "The Ghost" Pavlik. Pavlik went the full 12 rounds for the first time in his career and proved he could sustain his attack, defense and skills the whole championship distance against what will probably prove to be his toughest test anytime soon. For him, that's a good thing now that he is the biggest shark in the deepest waters of his division and at the deep end of the pond, fights often go the distance.

As for this fight, what was expected to be another war of mutual assured destruction with the greater superpower prevailing turned out to be a tactical war of attrition...in which the greater superpower still prevailed. With control over the rematch weight and with a new old trainer in tow, Jermaine Taylor imagined that his very best could beat Kelly Pavlik, but he was wrong. Pavlik proved too fundamentally sound and quick-handed to be decisioned by Taylor.

In this column, before the fight, I called the Ring Magazine's prediction of a 5th round KO of Taylor by Pavlik a disservice to Taylor. After all, before Pavlik took Taylor's middleweight crown in their first fight on September 29 of 2007, Taylor had never lost. He'd beat the man who beat the man. He rose to the occasion against Bernard Hopkins, decisioning the champ twice in succession. Hopkins had not lost in 20 title defenses. Sure, he'd fought down to some competition since, but he'd never lost though he'd lost some lustre. To write him off was to ignore his will to win and his significant skills.

In the pre-fight hype to this rematch, Taylor's trainer implied that Taylor had taken Pavlik too lightly the first time around. Coming off Pavlik's destruction of Miranda, that's almost hard to believe...but I will grant that after watching the rematch, Taylor was much better prepared this time around. I've also called Taylor an exemplary mimic without a real style of his own and while there's some truth to that, his level best performance showed me that his style is his athleticism. He did not try to mimic Pavlik, nor was he lazy and dropping his off hand to his waist as he's prone to do. He defended as well as he could all night long against Pavlik's sledgehammer jab and turned away a ton of right hand bombs from Pavlik. While his style is still very much based in his super-athleticism, he did defend, had a game plan, stayed focused and executed it for nearly the entire fight. It just wasn't enough.

I believed that Taylor's best chance would be to move laterally to prevent Pavlik from setting to throw. He didn't really do that, so he didn't really change his style at all. Keeping in mind that 4 of the 5 rounds that went to Taylor on my card (3, 6, 7 and 10) were clearly his (only Taylor's round 2 was close on my card)...he managed at times to be clearly the better fighter. But by fights end, those times were too few...and ultimately too poorly sustained. Pavlik was consistent, pressuring Taylor constantly. When he pushed or slapped his jab, he lost rounds...but when he snapped it and committed to it, the rounds tilted invariably his way.

I will eschew a round-by-round recap in favor of the flavor of the fight because those round-by-round regurgitations can be tedious (don't read my next one). This was two great fighters at their best for ten rounds. Taylor fought in spurts, but when he sustained his attack he was faster and more accurate. Fully 6 of the 7 rounds that I gave to Pavlik, I considered close and one (round 5) I considered almost too close to call. Keeping in mind that flipping that round for Taylor would have resulted in a draw on my card, my opinion was apparently shared by only one of the official judges. My score card read 115-113 for Pavlik by the end of the fight, but the official scorecards were almost all more lopsided, all for Pavlik too: 117-111; 116-112 and; 115-113.

Please look to the last paragraph in sentence two. See the issue? this was a 12 round fight. Unfortunately for Taylor, he faded as predicted by Pavlik's trainer. He waited a long time to do it and put up a heck of a performance ...for ten rounds. On my card, the fight was dead even after 10 rounds, with Taylor having won the 10th convincingly. In that 10th, he looked the fresher fighter and was making Pavlik look a step slow. Then in the 11th, for the first time in the fight, Taylor found his back to the ropes and when that happened, it seemed rewrite the upset ending.

Until then, Taylor had spent 10 rounds making sure that his back was never on the ropes. He definitely intended to avoid that mistake, made repeatedly in the first fight. Resting on the ropes is a mistake he could get away with against lesser opponents and it got him in big trouble repeatedly in the first tilt with Pavlik, whose relentless aggression and granite chin allow him to stand in the pocket and throw until his opponent wilts or spins out. Taylor kept the fight moving around the center of the ring for the first 30 minutes of the fight, but that made his having allowed it in the 32nd minute so very obvious. By the 12th round, Taylor was tying up when he should have been realizing that the last round of a close fight is where the rubber meets the road. It didn't matter. He was out of gas (though, to be fair, he would apparently still have lost on the official scorecards of two judges even if he'd floored Pavlik).

The HBO team did a noteworthy job this night. In the third, Larry Merchant pointed out that Taylor looked more disciplined and indeed he did. Taylor wasn't as frenetic as in the first fight, recognizing that he was in for a real test (ultimately, too great a test). Emmanuel Steward pointed out Taylor's not having put his back near the ropes during the fourth round, a deliberate plan that lasted until the 11th. Steward also pointed out the sneaky weight of Pavlik's jab in the fourth, at a time that it wasn't necessarily obvious that the jab was doing damage that could slow Taylor as the fight went on. Even Lederman got it right for a while until he revealed he had Taylor up by 2 halfway through the fight, which not only failed to match my card (I had it even), but pretty clearly failed to match the official scorecards. Hearing Lederman try to educate Merchant on-air as to how to score fights was a lowlight, but really the only glaring one of the broadcast.

The bottom line is that we witnessed the true crowning of what may turn out to be the toughest middleweight in a very long time. I called Pavlik to knock Taylor out in the 10th, but even that was failing to give Taylor enough credit. While he faded by the 11th (and got in a little trouble for the only time in the fight), he was determined to give his best, something he said he hadn't done the first time around. His best has always been better than anyone else's. Not this time. There's a new best middleweight in the world now. His name is Kelly Pavlik.

Okay, Now that Calzaghe v. Hopkins Is For Real

I'm gonna buy it on April 19, 2008 and so are you if you love boxing. I'll buy it for the same reason I couldn't stay away from Hopkins v. Wright. These are great boxers and when great boxers fight, realfightfans should tune in. It's chess with fists and unlike conventional chess, someone can get knocked out (though to be realistic, when great fighters fight, knockouts don't necessarily follow).

I guess we should have seen this fight coming when we saw Hopkins taunting Calzaghe on stage before the Kessler fight (or was it the Manfredo fiasco?...anyway...). Hopkins' teaming with GoldenBoy Promotions and Oscar DeLaHoya was the best move Bernard could have made in his boxing dotage. I give him credit. At an age where most boxers are scrambling for fights to stay relevant, he's put himself in a position to make big fights with the biggest fighters near his weight and promote them too! Notwithstanding his careful crafting of an anti-establishment image with the now-abandoned executioner's mask and the 20 consecutive middleweight title defenses, Hopkins has managed to amass this kind of juice with a purely counterpunching defensive style that can best be described favorably as an acquired taste and unfavorably as dirty and boring. That he knocked out Oscar on a body punch (then forged a promoting alliance with him!) is more a testament to Oscar's overreaching to test destiny as it is Bernard's weighty hands.

Don't get me wrong. Hopkins can fight and he carefully brings just enough to match and (in most cases) outdo his opponent. He conserves energy, turns his opponents, infights, elbows, ties up and punches on breaks and between breaths. This often ends up discouraging and wearing his opponents down. That very style (and his legendary obsessiveness with training and fitness generally) has allowed him to fight at an elite level into his 40s. But unless Calzaghe ages before our eyes, Hopkins will more than have his hands full with the Welshman.

Joe Calzaghe burst into this US fight fan's consciousness at the same time he did for most, I think. When he unforgivingly dismantled the seeming heir apparent Jeff "Left Hook" Lacy. That night, he was tough to like at first when he returned to his corner after the first round of that fight, telling his cornermen (about Lacy), "he's shite!", that comment proved absolutely true (at least that night, relative to Calzaghe). Lacy, who I thought looked like a mini-Mike Tyson coming in, has spent the last several years trying to rebound from that devastating defeat and rebuild his shattered confidence. Calzaghe fought great that night the way great fighters do. Great fighters fight great on big nights (and by the way, Jeff Lacy should take comfort and confidence from that...Calzaghe brought his best that night because he expected a real test...that he didn't get one may speak to Lacy's overconfidence more than a skill mismatch...although to digress further...Lacy has never looked the same since).

Calzaghe has also fought down to some opponent's levels since, but he again elevated his game to take on the undefeated Mikkel Kessler and showed another gear that the technically sound, young, hard punching and willing Kessler had no answer for. Now...the big question is: will Calzaghe's workrate style pose a problem for Hopkins? Heck, yes! Now...I can't help but wonder if Hopkins sees something we don't because on paper this is not a good fight for him. It may simply be that there's no better fight left out there for Hopkins. He doesn't need Roy Jones and Calzaghe has called him out. Calzaghe has proven he can pack all of Wales into a 60,000 seat venue and the kind of overseas buys he can generate on PPV carries the kind of juice that brings big fighters to the table. Has it enticed Hopkins in over his head? I think so. But then maybe at this stage and with his hall of fame credentials well in hand, Hopkins simply doesn't care.

While Hopkins' style remains intact at his age, that's because it doesn't rely on quickness as much as it does guile and control of pace and position. Hopkins punches and ties up, he shoulders and butts and turns. All of this can be negated by an exceptionally accurate volume puncher with sound boxing skills. If there ever such a fighter, it's Joe Calzaghe. He shoeshined his way to a quick decision against the overmatched Peter Manfredo of Contender fame and he's perfectly willing to let volume replace power as a primary tactic. He'll surely come in high as a kite and prepared to throw 100+ punches a round. I imagine he'll be in perfect condition and carrying the kind of concern into the ring that makes a great fighter fight great. I'm not sure that Hopkins will carry any more concern than usual. He's been in a number of big fights now and probably thinks that he'll be able to discourage and slow Calzaghe with well placed hard head shots...or maybe some body work (which probably is the best route to take). I think that underestimates Calzaghe's willingness to absorb punishment to acheive his goal.

Perhaps Hopkins read Calzaghe's autobiography (excerpted in Ring Magazine) where Calzaghe makes clear he's no fan of taking punishment and has no interest in boxing as a means to prove he's a tough guy. While that's surely true, no fighter amasses the kind of undefeated career that Calzaghe has without being extraordinarily willing. Further, no fighter amasses this many victories consecutively without a single loss without entering the ring every time with the ever-increasing weight of that record weighing heavily on his shoulders. Calzaghe isn't just fighting a big fight. He's fighting for his legacy...to stay undefeated. He's fighting for a claim to a level of boxing immortality that Hopkins can no longer aspire to. He won't give up his "0" easily. He won't give it up without a fight. In the end, I don't think he'll give it up at all. Calzaghe by decision 116-112.

Pavlik v. Taylor: Will History Repeat?

The short answer is yes, probably. Don't get me wrong...I'll tune in. In fact, I was shocked and pleased when the first go-round was free to HBO subscribers. Having seen Kelly Pavlik come up, I knew he looked tough...until he walked down Edison Miranda. After that, he looked unbeatable. Not because he's tough (he is) or because he punches hard (he definitely does), but because he's technically sound. He covers up well, he counterpunches well, he's always thinking and trying to adapt while executing an overall game plan and he's cool under pressure.

As for Taylor, If there's anything that Jermaine Taylor has seemed to lack it's schooling. He's a gifted athlete and he's relied on that to carry him a long way. We can all agree that the undisputed middleweight crown is indeed a long way. With Emmanuel Steward now tutoring him, you would think that he would begin to bring a certain calm to his work, knowing that he has a proven boxing mind behind his strategy and a hall of fame pedigree already in the bank. But he still seems frenetic when pressured. That's an odd trait for a fighter who twice took Bernard Hopkins the distance, taking a decision each time (yes, I think he won both times...barely). He ought to exude swagger and move around the ring with the patience of an heir apparent proven. With all of his athleticism, he ought to circle and use both hands, moving in and out and baffle with speed. He doesn't. He's a mimic who fights to the level of his opponent and tries to beat him at his own game. For years, that was enough. That's how great an athlete he is. He's also willing and determined. I'm hoping that Taylor, whom I consider a great champion who took all comers, steps up his game yet again and exhibits those two traits of truly great champions: adaptability and resilience. This coming fight will indeed define him.

To be fair, Pavlik showed great speed against Taylor the first time out and I think that's what surprised Taylor and ultimately cost him the fight. That very fact, along with Pavlik's technical skill may again prove Taylor's undoing. In the first tilt, Taylor was punching and getting hit instead of being able to punch and get missed. Taylor's answer to that seemed to be to try and step up the pace, but Pavlik answered in the way a well-schooled fighter must: he waited him out, counterpunched and punished him for his aggressiveness. Pavlik stood his ground and picked his spots.

At least one element that will make it interesting is what made it interesting the last time out: Taylor can punch too. He sat Pavlik down the last time out and he could do it again. But I don't think he will. I don't think Pavlik will give him the chance. Pavlik now knows he can and did beat the man who beat the man. That kind of confidence can only be earned. Of course, that kind of confidence can become overconfidence too. While I doubt it will, look at what overconfidence did to Paul Williams against Carlos Quintana very recently. Williams felt so confident after outpointing Margarito that his people thought he was ready to slow his punch output and unveil a new hook to show off his power. That hubris got him beaten soundly by a game and prepared challenger. Will a similarly unbeaten Pavlik decide that he should change? Perhaps, but I doubt it mostly because Williams' high output style is very unusual and very different from Pavlik's. Let's face it, Pavlik is very conventional. He does the important things well: his feet are in the right place (although he's not particularly fleet-footed); he sits down on his punches (this he does exceedingly well at times); he hides his big straight right in behind a jab (this hammer will come unexpectedly in behind what otherwise seemed like a routine stiff jab...and knock you out). Pavlik is a great boxer.

And that is why he'll take Taylor down in the tenth round of this twelve round fight. The Ring called it in five for very similar reasons, but I think that fails to give Taylor the credit he deserves. This may even go to a decision because while Taylor throws hard and Pavlik is a finisher for sure, Taylor is better than a legitimate champion. He did beat Hopkins twice and gave a top-of-his-game Winky Wright all he could handle (I'd have given Winky that decision, but it was close enough that it was no robbery). Taylor's athleticism makes up for his stylistic flaws. Those flaws will cost him in 5 or 6 years when he loses a fraction of his quickness to age, but they won't right now. He's still in his prime and while I don't think he'll run, knowing he has to take his title back, he's also not as likely to stand and engage the way he did the first time around.

In fact, if I felt he was truly coachable or changeable, I'd give him a good chance to upset Pavlik with a twelve round decision. The problem is that I've not seen evidence of that. He fights his opponent's fight and is dictated to in terms of pace. He did it against a smaller Kassim Ouma and he did it against a weaker Cory Spinks. While he legitimately kept his belts in those fights, he was widely criticized for taking bad fights and performing poorly in them. It's both a fair and unfair analysis because he was trying to stay busy in a division where he'd fought the best there was out there and yet taking on fighters against whom it's tough to look good. Ouma is a volume puncher and Spinks is an ugly, running, smothering fighter who is no fun to watch at all.

Taylor seems to try to outfight the fighter he's facing at that fighter's own game and doesn't impose his own style or pace because he doesn't really have one. The only question that then remains then is whether his opponent is skilled enough at his own game to beat Taylor at it. Taylor is an exceptional mimic, but he'll too likely fail against Pavlik if Taylor reverts to form (and we all know the likelihood of that as a general proposition...fighters so seldom significantly improve their styles between fights that it's akin to capturing Samuel Peter in a bottle...only to watch him slip away the next time out).

For his part, Pavlik is self-contained in the extreme. He has proven he sets out with a game plan and executes it. While I love Pavlik and think a middleweight champ with his skills and punch are great for the sport, I'm hoping Taylor steps up. By that I mean that I hope he proves he is adaptable. Taylor's winning fight plan is to get on his bike and move move move all night long. In and out, side to side and never let Pavlik set. If he does that, he can walk away with the win, get his belts back and set up a rubber match.

Underestimating Jermaine Taylor has become easy, but let's remember this is still the man who beat the man.

Quintana solves Paul Williams for the WBO Welterweight Crown...Or Does He?

This is why they hold the fight...because on paper, Paul Williams blows out Carlos Quintana. Quintana came in an 8-1 underdog with a recent blowout loss to Miguel Cotto on his record (a 5th round TKO). That loss to Cotto was Quintana's first and he's taken away Joel Julio's "0", decisioning the til-then impressive, if crude, Julio. But coming off his blowout loss to Cotto, Quintana looked to be playing the victim's role to the widely regarded "most dangerous man in the division". But...that's not what happened.

Coming off a convincing win over Antonio Margarito, Paul Williams supplanted him as the best welterweight the casual fan never heard of and walked away with the WBO welterweight title in the process. This Saturday night on HBO's Boxing After Dark, in his first defense, he handed that title over to the unheralded and possibly underrated Carlos Quintana. I say possibly underrated because while Quintana looked good, clearly prepared, focused and willing to work hard even despite rather obvious exhaustion, I can't help but think that he caught Williams overconfident, underprepared and in the midst of a foolish and inexplicable attempt to retool his game.

Now...I should concede that it may be patently unfair to Quintana to fail to give him credit for solving Williams' punch -(literally)-every-2-seconds style. His game plan was clearly to avoid giving Williams time to set and throw. He moved almost constantly from side to side and in and out and despite being shorter by at least six inches (in wingspan too), being a southpaw to match Williams' southpaw stance allowed him to throw and land a right hook all night (which he did, to great effect). Williams was badly cut by the end of the fight and clearly the beaten (although strangely, the fresher) fighter. Quintana looked quicker and he stuck to his game plan all night long, even though it was noticeably exhausting him. He seemed to appreciate that standing still might be rewarded with the kind of constant barrage of multi-punch combinations that stymied Margarito...so he kept moving.

But...all of that said, the Williams who fought Quintana was definitely not the Williams who beat Margarito. While I've denounced punchcounts before, Williams' game is all about volume punching...so I'm afraid I have to give in to them here. This is because, what has made Williams so special (until now) is that at six foot two (at least) and making 148 pounds, he stands six to eight inches taller than his opponents and with his huge wingspan, he has a reach advantage of at least that much every time out. Now... Ed "Too Tall" Jones will tell you that reach advantage isn't everything, so it's the combination of that reach advantage and his work rate that make him so special. Until Saturday night, I'd never seen him throw fewer than 80 to 90 punches in a round. He has always been absolutely tireless, hungry and relentless. Until Saturday night.

Against Quintana, I dare to lapse to the statistics...but they tell the tale so clearly because they are so aberrant when compared to Williams' prior performances. Williams threw 552 total punches in 12 rounds, according to HBO's "final punchstat". A Quintana supporter might understandably suggest that his constant movement is the explanation. That is probably partially true, but there is no way that is all the story. Williams won every one of his first 33 fights by overwhelming his opponents with his reach advantage combined with his volume of punches. He approached or surpassed 100 punches in a round frequently. His full 12 round "final punchstat" numbers should read more like 1,000 + punches. Instead, he threw fewer than 50 punches a round. What could explain that? I watched the fight and while Quintana definitely came with the right game plan and executed it well, he needed Williams to cooperate in a way he never could have expected...that Williams would halve his punch output.

I think the Williams camp decided to fix something that wasn't broken. They unbelievably and inexplicably tinkered with Williams' fighting style. According to the HBO announcing crew, Williams talked before the fight about developing a "Bob Foster left hook" and unveiling that new punch against Quintana. If Bob Foster had had a Paul Williams punch output, he wouldn't have needed that left hook! Paul Williams doesn't need it either (and if he's developed it, he didn't show it). And yet, there he was...not moving his hands and waiting on his opponent. Why Williams or anyone advising him felt that he needed to change his style (which had won every fight of his professional career, including a major belt) and showcase his power (which he doesn't have) is the kind of mystery that prevents promising young fighters from becoming great hall of fame fighters.

You might ask, how can you say he doesn't have power when he's knocked out 24 of 33 opponents coming in? because if you punch half as hard as a hard puncher, but punch twice as often the cumulative effect is the same...and...punching a man 1,000 times in a fight tends to confuse, discourage and knock him down. If there is one lesson to be learned by Williams it's that he ought to dance with who brung him. He climbed to the top with a good chin, a huge reach advantage and an outrageous punch output. Not punching power. Not effective counterpunching. So...Paul, please go back to punching so often they can hardly count them and you'll get your belt back.

Are there alternate explanations? Sure. One was mentioned earlier, that Quintana outquicked him and moved so much that Williams couldn't set. While Quintana earned that belt fair and square, not only did he fight a different Williams than anyone had ever fought before, but another factor makes me wonder if Williams' wasn't otherwise diminished. The HBO team mentioned that Williams gained 16 or 17 pounds after the weigh in overnight to enter the ring at about 164 lbs. If that's true, then his sluggishness could also easily be explained. While he's always been considered something of a freak of nature to be fighting at 148 lbs standing 6'3" (he's listed at 6'1" in the official programs apparently, but there's no way...), he's looked leaner at fight time than he did in this fight. Perhaps the herculean effort to make weight is indeed all that logic dictates it must be for him. If so, the question becomes can his punch output (assuming he reverts to form) carry him nearly as far at 154 lbs or 160 lbs.? I tend to doubt it...especially after watching this fight. If he continues to make weight at 148 without complaint, maybe we won't have to have that answer for a while (though it's surely inevitable), but that question is going to linger for those of us who question why he looked so beatable against a guy who Miguel Cotto destroyed so thoroughly not so long ago.

As Max Kellerman mused at the fight's end, is Cotto really that great? Or is Williams really that beatable? While the answer is surely somewhere in the middle, I tend to think that even Miguel Cotto would have had major trouble with the Williams that Margarito fought. His punch output was merciless. He let his hands go so much that Margarito had too little time to set and throw. Punches were bouncing off his face to often that he couldn't think. Did Quintana's strategy of lateral movement really completely eliminate one of Williams' greatest assets? Not without his cooperation, it didn't. I had the fight identical to two of the three official judges at 116 -112 with the third scoring it 115-113 giving Quintana the unanimous decision. It was the right decision.

This leads me to weigh in on HBO's round-by-round analyst Harold Lederman. In years past, I always enjoyed Mr. Lederman's commentary...until I started scoring fights. While his pre-fight recitation of the rules feels almost compulsory for an HBO fight ("...the unified association of BAWXing commissions...JIM!), his poor scoring and ever-increasing occasionally nonsensical input is distracting. He gave Paul Williams an 11th round nod that was so completely wrong that I wondered if he'd even watched it. It's gotten to the point where not only do I disregard his opinion, but his input tends to undermine the legitimacy of the broadcast presentation. That's because if you're not scoring along and making your own judgment based on what you see as you go, by the time you get to fight's end, you tend not to remember exactly how you felt in each round. You trust Harold. And when Harold's wrong, you feel as if the judging must be wrong. And that's not right...if Harold's not right...and too often, he is indeed pretty clearly wrong. Now..because I've been listening to Harold's voice for so long and because he's a longstanding part of an HBO apparatus that I so greatly appreciate, I'm not ready to eviscerate him further and will continue to review his work and compare his take to my own and to the official judges in this highly subjective business...but my confidence definitely falters.

The presentation had an undercard fight that showcased the up-and-coming Andre Berto against an apparent hothouse flower of a fighter from Germany named Michel Trabant. Berto looked so much faster than Trabant that after about a minute into the first round, it was a foregone conclusion and the question became how much punishment the German could take. About six rounds worth, as it turns out. Trabant came in with a great record (43-2) apparently compiled against St. Pauli girls and was a decent punching bag. They said Trabant had never been down and he withstood some flush shots, for sure. Though he retired on his stool immediately after the sixth round, he indeed never went down despite taking so lopsided a beating in the third round that I scored it 10-8 without a knockdown (it was written on my card before Bob Papa, Max Kellerman and Harold Lederman all said that they hadn't scored it that way, but could see why any judge would). Berto looked world class, but Trabant didn't test him even remotely. Berto punched in combination well, offered good angles to the stationary Trabant (stepping around him to pummel him) and was so much faster than Trabant that he was toying with him rather obviously. Berto looks promising, but his toes-out duck walk footwork may cost him against an opponent who moves him backward. He is very quick though and throws a lot of different punches. HBO said he is very boxing/business savvy and even at age 24 is aware of the need to impress fans as he ascends toward challenging the elite of a very deep welterweight division. He had no trouble impressing this night. I had him ahead 60-53 at the time of the stoppage.

To wrap up on the Williams/Quintana fight...when I first saw Williams fight, I thought: "noone can beat this guy!" The fighter I saw that first night was the fighter that won the WBO belt from Antonio Margarito. That was not the fighter that Carlos Quintana beat on Saturday night. I hope they rematch Williams and Quintana so we can be sure of what we saw. Williams deserves that...and frankly so does Quintana.