HBO goes right to the fight post Malignaggi/Diaz, as taped earlier in an apparently empty ring in Bern, Switzerland. No question that Johnson is a huge underdog, probably no less than Buster Douglas was against Tyson. the difference is that Klitschko is not a fool convinced he no longer has to train. He is a smart and dedicated champion with a massive reach advantage.
ROUND ONE - Johnson is laying way back on the ropes and it seems Johnson is trying to wait him out, maybe tire Klitschko out. Johnson mounts almost no offense and loses the round on aggression alone 10-9.
ROUND TWO - Klitschko picking up the pace and trying to drop a big right hand in behind a shoving jab. Johnson almost completely defensive, but not yet hurt. Finally with a minute left, they move to ring center...but Johnson not seeming to try to punch...just trying to survive. Johnson is a big guy himself, not so dwarfed as many of Klitschko's opponents are...but he's still the smaller man. As the round ends, Klitschko begins to land and it's easily Klitschko's round 20-18.
ROUND THREE - Knowing nothing about Johnson, I called this fight to end by KO in round five. We'll see. Johnson is mugging for Klitschko as he lays on the ropes and invites him in. He's still getting the worst of it as Klitschko goes up 30-27.
ROUND FOUR - Johnson is clearly unafraid in there and is, as Kellerman describes, a skilled defensive fighter...but he's not showing any offense. Lennox Lewis speculates that Johnson is waiting unti the later rounds, but not showing enough offense to win rounds is going to be tough to overcome. Klitschko IS red around his left eye and his mouth is hanging open, so some of Johnson's flicking jabs are finding their mark. Johnson is talking to Klitschko a LOT and taunting him as the round ends. It's fun to watch, if it's a strategy intended to enrage Klitschko...it may be working...though that may be a crazy strategy. Again, it's easily Klitschko's round...though closer this time 40-36.
ROUND FIVE - Johnson scoring well with his flicking jab even while eating right hands. He's behind halfway through, but not by as much. Johnson is not being dominated, which is something that is not the case with many Klitschko opponents and Vitali does look more, if not exactly tired, then...interested in trying to get rid of Johnson so he can stop having to work so hard. Still Klitschko's round though 50-45.
ROUND SIX - With a minute left, Klitschko is not doing anything effective and Johnson landing. Johnson ducks his head a lot. I can give this one to Johnson in good conscience. Klitschko was definitely the aggressor, but Johnson was more effective and landed a lot of counter jabs and one nice left hook. It becomes 59-55 favoring Klitschko.
ROUND SEVEN - Klitschko starting to get a little wild, seemingly interested in getting Johnson out of there. Johnson is not hurt and against Klitchko that is an accomplishment. More of the same, but Johnson not landing as much. Vitali takes the round, going up 69-64.
ROUND EIGHT - Lennox speculating earlier than Vitali may have a bum right shoulder because he's not turning over his punches with that hand and I don't disagree, but then Johnson is a good boxer and not giving Klitschko good looks, even if he's overmatched. Johnson slips a lot of punches, but he's not throwing enough big punches to give himself a chance. Johnson closes strong, stinging Klitschko with jabs...but it's not enough as Vitali is more effective and aggressive all round long, going up 79-73.
ROUND NINE - A carbon copy of past rounds with Johson laying on the ropes here and there and everywhere and Klitschko standing in front of him, stalking him and throwing...missing mostly and hitting enough. Vitali goes up 89-82.
ROUND TEN - Johnson completely defensive, not even bothering to try to punch. He's avoiding the worst of the punishment that Vitali is trying to dole out, but that's not going to get him anything. Johnson is not engaging, bobbing and weaving instead...as if demonstrating boxing skill without punching is an art. It is. It's a losing art. 99-91 for Klitschko.
ROUND ELEVEN - Lennox calls it kind of like a sparring session where a guy is working on his defense against a big man. All of the HBO team discussion focuses on Johnson's failure to mount or even attempt to mount any offense. Johnson taunts Klitschko at rounds end, as if his aggression while the clock is ticking actually exists. It doesn't, in any measure that might win him a round. Vitali's round again, making it 109-100.
ROUND TWELVE - We keep waiting for the cocky Johnson to come out of his bobbing crouch fighting...but he never does and with a minute left, it becomes clear he never will. He's satisfied to not get KO'd. And even now, Vitali trying to close the show...but Johnson continues to dodge and bob and weave.
At the fight's end, Johnson shows some heart, literally in the last ten seconds, lets his hands go. Not the time to do it. It's still a walkover, just not a KO. Final Tally: 119-109 for Klitschko. The official scorecards 120-108, 120-108 and 119-109. As it should be. Not close, but twelve good rounds of work. Pretty much a shutout.
Sunday, December 13, 2009
Saturday, December 12, 2009
Malignaggi v. Diaz II: No Excuses or Automatic Rubber Match?
Well, as I watch the ring walk live, I scanned my call of the last fight and see I called it even 114-114. I recall this was a very good fight the first time around and Malignaggi complained bitterly that it was fixed and that he'd been hometowned in Houston by Golden Boy and the Texas athletic comission. Well, this time around it's in Chicago, so no excuses. I may simply watch this one and limit my descriptions, but we'll see. Considering the way Malignaggi lost it after the last fight, I'm surprised and gratified to see Diaz willing to rematch elsewhere. That's the way it should be and the way it should be is too seldom seen in boxing. Credit to Golden Boy too for allowing it to happen. I said last time around that Golden Boy pulled all the stops out to protect their fighter and assure a result. Allowing the rematch doesn't jibe with that...except that it was a good fight and if Malignaggi wins, it guarantees fight number three. Am I cynical or what?
ROUND ONE - Diaz not as aggressive as usual and Malignaggi is quicker once again. Malignaggi plays to the crowd and Diaz not active enough. Malignaggi lands better and takes round one to go up 10-9.
ROUND TWO - Diaz looks wary to step in and engage and the speed differential is obvious. Malignaggi is using the larger (this time) 20 foot ring to dance away after landing. Diaz is unable to bull rush as is his usual tactic. When he does, Malignaggi is gone. Again, now I think that all of teh things that favored Diaz last time are gone and his edge (making it more even) with it. Diaz didn't land a punch that I saw and Malignaggi clearly did. Nothing spectacular, but it's enough. Malignaggi goes up 20-18.
ROUND THREE - Diaz cut over left eye from a punch. Diaz finally mixes it up about a minute in and the fun exchange comes out about even, though Diaz will probably be over-credited because it's the first time he really engaged with any success. The round is a close one as Diaz lands a few times while Malignaggi carries every other moment. I can't call it even so it goes to Malignaggi for being more consistent. Malignaggi up 30-27.
ROUND FOUR - Amazing to see Diaz throwing so little compared to his workrate in the past. Diaz does seem to be sticking to a gameplan of jabbing with Malignaggi. If that's the reason he's so inactive, then it's a fool's errand. Malignaggi is a slickster first and foremost and he'll win a boxing match when it's against a similarly feather fisted fighter like Diaz. Diaz is completely ineffective, not landing anything while Malignaggi not doing anything spectacular...but enough to carry the round. Malignaggi pulling away 40-36.
ROUND FIVE - Diaz finally pins malignaggi against the conrner, but Malilgnaggi spins away. Now Diaz tagging Malignaggi a minute in and Diaz is more effective. Lennox absolutely right: Malignaggi is foolish to engage when he's winning by boxing. Diaz easily ahead in the round for the first time as a result. Simply because Malignaggi decided stupidly to stand and fight. in the last half of the round, Malignaggi reverts to boxing, but the round is lost barring a huge reversal. Diaz' first round, making it 49-46 favoring Malignaggi.
ROUND SIX - A minute in, Malignaggi is standing and inviting Diaz into a jabbing contest, convinced he can't lose and Diaz keeps it even.When he stops and "plays", as Lennox Lewis calls it, Malignaggi absorbs punches. He hurts Diaz! ...and doesn't even try to finish him...he mugs and waves to the crowd. He bolo punches and waits the round out. The damage switches the round back to Malignaggi 59-55.
ROUND SEVEN - Unbelievably, Diaz' corner tells him to "take this round off". Wow. Harold Lederman is right: it's "nonsense" for Diaz' corner to tell him to take the round off. Halfway through, the round is a total bore. Diaz waiting and Malignaggi not attacking. Ugly. Lennox says he never had a trainer tell him to take a round off unless he was winning the fight. Diaz is clearly behind. Very strange. With less than a minute left, it's a dancing inactive fight. Ten second stretches with either fighter not punching only twitching at each other. Neither fighter deserved the round, so I'll give it to the aggressor Diaz, so it's 68-65 favoring Malignaggi.
ROUND EIGHT - Active, close round that goes to Diaz, narrowing the gap to 77-75 favoring Malignaggi. Diaz isn't particularly effective, but he's more aggressive.
ROUND NINE - Malilgnaggi goes back to boxing and with a half minute left, he is again getting the better of exchanges where he doesn't stick around to allow Diaz to fall in while punching. The round pretty clearly goes to Malignaggi, putting him back up by two rounds 87-84.
ROUND TEN - I wish Kellerman would stop hedging his bets by calling "early rounds that could go either way", seeming to want to give an out, even while acknowledging that he scored those rounds for Malignaggi. The ref gave Diaz an eight count! and the announcers say there is no standing eight count, so there was a knockdown called. That makes it a mandatory 10-8 round for Malignaggi. Malignaggi cuffed Diaz and spun Diaz and the glove brushed the ground. A bad call probably. Regardless, it's now 97-92.
ROUND ELEVEN - Diaz definitely getting the better of the round, though Malignaggi clearly not hurt. Malignaggi not seeming to care to fight hard, while Diaz is definitely more aggressive, even while Malignaggi talking to the HBO team from the ring (that he's blocking what might look like big landed punches). Diaz' round, making it 106-102.
ROUND TWELVE - Diaz more aggressive and more efffective, but not hurting Malignaggi. Diaz finishing stronger, but Malignaggi not withering away, just not active. Diaz' round, making the final tally on my card favoring Malignaggi 115-112.
The Judge's scorecards are identical: 116-111 for Malignaggi, declaring the "new NABO champion". Big whoop. Do I want to see a third fight? Eh. I imagine Golden Boy has contracted for an automatic rematch with HBO, so we'll probably have to see it. Malignaggi probably wins it again, if his ten cent head doesn't come into play (which it might).
Once again, Malignaggi is an interesting post-fight interview. You have to love how candid he is, even if his brashness is off-putting. He classily refuses to take the bait to bash former trainer Buddy McGirt...which would be easy after we all saw McGirt unfairly pull him out of a big fight when he wanted and was able to continue. Max Kellerman is right: Malignaggi has upped his value in a packed division. He calls out Ricky Hatton, but there's little chance that will happen.
ROUND ONE - Diaz not as aggressive as usual and Malignaggi is quicker once again. Malignaggi plays to the crowd and Diaz not active enough. Malignaggi lands better and takes round one to go up 10-9.
ROUND TWO - Diaz looks wary to step in and engage and the speed differential is obvious. Malignaggi is using the larger (this time) 20 foot ring to dance away after landing. Diaz is unable to bull rush as is his usual tactic. When he does, Malignaggi is gone. Again, now I think that all of teh things that favored Diaz last time are gone and his edge (making it more even) with it. Diaz didn't land a punch that I saw and Malignaggi clearly did. Nothing spectacular, but it's enough. Malignaggi goes up 20-18.
ROUND THREE - Diaz cut over left eye from a punch. Diaz finally mixes it up about a minute in and the fun exchange comes out about even, though Diaz will probably be over-credited because it's the first time he really engaged with any success. The round is a close one as Diaz lands a few times while Malignaggi carries every other moment. I can't call it even so it goes to Malignaggi for being more consistent. Malignaggi up 30-27.
ROUND FOUR - Amazing to see Diaz throwing so little compared to his workrate in the past. Diaz does seem to be sticking to a gameplan of jabbing with Malignaggi. If that's the reason he's so inactive, then it's a fool's errand. Malignaggi is a slickster first and foremost and he'll win a boxing match when it's against a similarly feather fisted fighter like Diaz. Diaz is completely ineffective, not landing anything while Malignaggi not doing anything spectacular...but enough to carry the round. Malignaggi pulling away 40-36.
ROUND FIVE - Diaz finally pins malignaggi against the conrner, but Malilgnaggi spins away. Now Diaz tagging Malignaggi a minute in and Diaz is more effective. Lennox absolutely right: Malignaggi is foolish to engage when he's winning by boxing. Diaz easily ahead in the round for the first time as a result. Simply because Malignaggi decided stupidly to stand and fight. in the last half of the round, Malignaggi reverts to boxing, but the round is lost barring a huge reversal. Diaz' first round, making it 49-46 favoring Malignaggi.
ROUND SIX - A minute in, Malignaggi is standing and inviting Diaz into a jabbing contest, convinced he can't lose and Diaz keeps it even.When he stops and "plays", as Lennox Lewis calls it, Malignaggi absorbs punches. He hurts Diaz! ...and doesn't even try to finish him...he mugs and waves to the crowd. He bolo punches and waits the round out. The damage switches the round back to Malignaggi 59-55.
ROUND SEVEN - Unbelievably, Diaz' corner tells him to "take this round off". Wow. Harold Lederman is right: it's "nonsense" for Diaz' corner to tell him to take the round off. Halfway through, the round is a total bore. Diaz waiting and Malignaggi not attacking. Ugly. Lennox says he never had a trainer tell him to take a round off unless he was winning the fight. Diaz is clearly behind. Very strange. With less than a minute left, it's a dancing inactive fight. Ten second stretches with either fighter not punching only twitching at each other. Neither fighter deserved the round, so I'll give it to the aggressor Diaz, so it's 68-65 favoring Malignaggi.
ROUND EIGHT - Active, close round that goes to Diaz, narrowing the gap to 77-75 favoring Malignaggi. Diaz isn't particularly effective, but he's more aggressive.
ROUND NINE - Malilgnaggi goes back to boxing and with a half minute left, he is again getting the better of exchanges where he doesn't stick around to allow Diaz to fall in while punching. The round pretty clearly goes to Malignaggi, putting him back up by two rounds 87-84.
ROUND TEN - I wish Kellerman would stop hedging his bets by calling "early rounds that could go either way", seeming to want to give an out, even while acknowledging that he scored those rounds for Malignaggi. The ref gave Diaz an eight count! and the announcers say there is no standing eight count, so there was a knockdown called. That makes it a mandatory 10-8 round for Malignaggi. Malignaggi cuffed Diaz and spun Diaz and the glove brushed the ground. A bad call probably. Regardless, it's now 97-92.
ROUND ELEVEN - Diaz definitely getting the better of the round, though Malignaggi clearly not hurt. Malignaggi not seeming to care to fight hard, while Diaz is definitely more aggressive, even while Malignaggi talking to the HBO team from the ring (that he's blocking what might look like big landed punches). Diaz' round, making it 106-102.
ROUND TWELVE - Diaz more aggressive and more efffective, but not hurting Malignaggi. Diaz finishing stronger, but Malignaggi not withering away, just not active. Diaz' round, making the final tally on my card favoring Malignaggi 115-112.
The Judge's scorecards are identical: 116-111 for Malignaggi, declaring the "new NABO champion". Big whoop. Do I want to see a third fight? Eh. I imagine Golden Boy has contracted for an automatic rematch with HBO, so we'll probably have to see it. Malignaggi probably wins it again, if his ten cent head doesn't come into play (which it might).
Once again, Malignaggi is an interesting post-fight interview. You have to love how candid he is, even if his brashness is off-putting. He classily refuses to take the bait to bash former trainer Buddy McGirt...which would be easy after we all saw McGirt unfairly pull him out of a big fight when he wanted and was able to continue. Max Kellerman is right: Malignaggi has upped his value in a packed division. He calls out Ricky Hatton, but there's little chance that will happen.
Sunday, December 6, 2009
Williams v. Martinez: sleeper fight of the year
I tuned in to the HBO 12/6/09 matchup between Paul Williams and Sergio Martinez not knowing what to expect, but figuring this was another showcase for Williams. As I heard the HBO crew announce that these two fighters were the best 154 pounders on the planet fighting a non-title bout at 16o lbs., I wondered how on earth I'd never even heard of Martinez, whom Jim Lampley announced is the "fastest fighter in the world at 154 pounds" (in Lampley's opinion). I had my doubts. Then the fight began.
As I watched the first round, figuring I'd see Williams batter Martinez, I got what I expected...at first. Martinez looked ineffective, backpedaling and dancing away and forced by Williams to fight at an uncomfortable pace. When Martinez was dropped halfway through the first, it was exactly as I'd expected. Then a funny thing happened...Martinez shook it off and, taking advantage of Williams' wild and apparently misguided effort to press his advantage, floored Williams in return near the rounds end. It was on.
Because Williams is such an action fighter...as long as his opponent is capable of trading with him... he promises an action fight. The catch is that he's faced few fighters capable of maintaining his literal throw a punch every two seconds on average plus pace. Even those who have managed to do it wilt under the constant pressure, Williams' reach advantage and his willingness to take heavy leather in order to give. This was just such an action fight, mostly because Martinez never fully wilted.
A clearly fast handed and skilled counterpuncher, Martinez spent almost the entire fight backing up. No surprise there. Williams naturally comes forward the entire fight, punching constantly. It must take a special fighter to stand in there for 36 minutes, as Martinez did. Indeed, he probably did follow the template set by the only fighter to take a decision win (or any win for that matter) away from a Williams fight: Carlos Quintana. Quintana was preternaturally sharp in his first fight with Williams, using pinpoint counterpunching to bloody Willliams for a full twelve rounds and giving Williams a boxing lesson in the process. It was a lesson that Quintana could not manage to re-teach in the rematch, suffering a quick KO to Williams...but he'd showed how to beat Williams (or at least showed how to fare well): punish Williams for his punchrate style consistently enough that you win rounds and be in good enough shape that you don't wear down. Quintana had to fight the fight of his life to do it, then couldn't duplicate that feat. Martinez was nearly up to the task.
I didn't score the fight, but I probably should have. I didn't expect the fight to be as close or as good as it was, frankly. I could go back and score it again and it's a good enough fight to warrant that, but I haven't yet done it. I know this: every round was competitive and I only saw one round, I recall it was the 8th, where the fighters seemed to take the first half off. Otherwise, nearly every moment of every round was a punch-filled slugfest. As Max Kellerman opined, it was like Gatti/Ward, but contested at a higher level of skill. The analogy is imperfect, but apt. These guys were both there to win and they threw a lot of bad intention punches and each absorbed a lot of punishment. The momentum actually didn't seem to shift as much as some super action fights do...and that is why I leaned toward Williams. He drove the action, following Martinez throughout the fight and forcing Martinez to engage, but almost only ever in response.
And engage Martinez did. As is typical for Williams, he was throwing about 90-100 punches a round, but he seemed less accurate than I've seen him before. I suspect that he took Martinez lightly. The HBO team intoned that Williams' trainer had predicted a quick KO. Credit however should go to Martinez because as much as it's possible Williams wasn't razor sharp, Martinez may have been making him miss. Martinez' hands were faster and while giving away a full six inches in height and probably a comparable amount in reach, he landed consistently all night. He keeps his hands down at his sides between flurries, literally dropping them at his sides. It's amazing he was able to maintain that stylistic flaw against the ever-pursuing Williams, but he did. He changed tactics successfully at least once, adding a straight lefthanded body attack about halfway through the fight, temporarily causing a ripple in Williams' constant aggression. He also landed cleanly at least as frequently, if not more frequently, than did Williams. Then how did he lose?
Well, since I didn't score it I'd have to defer to the actual judging and Harold Lederman's card (which seemed fair and had the fight even at 95-95 going into the two final "championship rounds"of the 12 round fight). I'm tempted to throw out the 119-110 score by the ringside Judge who, along with a 115-113 score for Williams threw the fight to him. Indeed, Julie Lederman (yes, Harold's daughter) scored it even at 114-114. The one lopsided score seems unrealistic, even if you scored most of the close rounds for Williams. Martinez was consistently more effective in enough rounds to take enough rounds to make it close. Jim Lampley bluntly called that Judge "blind." The Martinez camp literally screamed "travesty" from behind their fighter when asked about it post-fight by Kellerman. I suspect I'd have given the final two close rounds to Williams, especially the closing round. Martinez was obviously wearing out and though he kept up his counterattack even then, it was clearly borne more of a fighting spirit than conditioning. He was pushing past his limits, which while admirable, highlited the fact that Williams had walked through the best he could give, kept coming with a higher punchrate, and still looked ready to go into no longer extant rounds 13 to 15.
Bottom line, Williams' constant aggression again carried the day for him. Martinez was definitely effective, but since he could do little more than backpedal all night long, firing from his back foot while the iron-chinned (mostly...once he realized he was in a fight, anyway) Williams advanced. The barrage made Martinez look like he was the one who had bitten off more than he could chew, rather than the other way around. Kellerman claimed in the post-fight interview that he'd scored it for Martinez. While that score was unquestionably plausible, I would disagree and tend to think, as I thought was the case with some lengthy portions of Lampleys' call, that a card for Martinez would have to be predicated on spending more time watching what Martinez was doing, to the exclusion of Williams. It's an easy mistake to make because Williams is so constant that to see the aggression effectively counter-attacked is enticing. Martinez was indeed able to do so in spots and he showed great heart and skill...but that is not to say he won the fight. He was able to make it close...which against Paul Williams means you are a special fighter. At least on this night.
Which brings us to the best question: rematch? Martinez says he wants to do it and Williams says he's willing. I say do it! Will Martinez be able to handle a fully prepared Williams, who definitely won't take him lightly a second time around? Quintana couldn't. Does anyone else want to fight either of these guys? probably not. Can they build a meaningful rivalry between the two of them and continue to raise both their profiles with great fights? maybe...but the problem is that Williams won this one. It would work better if Martinez had won. Apart from not being able to find a fighter anywhere in the vast division neighborhood he's willing to occupy (from 147 lb to 160 lb and beyond), there's little incentive for Williams. But that "noone will fight me" problem is very real for him and I for one, would like to see this fight again. Will Martinez be another Quintana? I think not. But then again, do I think he can beat Williams in a rematch? No. But still...a realfightfan loves to see a real fight. And both of these men are real fighters.
As I watched the first round, figuring I'd see Williams batter Martinez, I got what I expected...at first. Martinez looked ineffective, backpedaling and dancing away and forced by Williams to fight at an uncomfortable pace. When Martinez was dropped halfway through the first, it was exactly as I'd expected. Then a funny thing happened...Martinez shook it off and, taking advantage of Williams' wild and apparently misguided effort to press his advantage, floored Williams in return near the rounds end. It was on.
Because Williams is such an action fighter...as long as his opponent is capable of trading with him... he promises an action fight. The catch is that he's faced few fighters capable of maintaining his literal throw a punch every two seconds on average plus pace. Even those who have managed to do it wilt under the constant pressure, Williams' reach advantage and his willingness to take heavy leather in order to give. This was just such an action fight, mostly because Martinez never fully wilted.
A clearly fast handed and skilled counterpuncher, Martinez spent almost the entire fight backing up. No surprise there. Williams naturally comes forward the entire fight, punching constantly. It must take a special fighter to stand in there for 36 minutes, as Martinez did. Indeed, he probably did follow the template set by the only fighter to take a decision win (or any win for that matter) away from a Williams fight: Carlos Quintana. Quintana was preternaturally sharp in his first fight with Williams, using pinpoint counterpunching to bloody Willliams for a full twelve rounds and giving Williams a boxing lesson in the process. It was a lesson that Quintana could not manage to re-teach in the rematch, suffering a quick KO to Williams...but he'd showed how to beat Williams (or at least showed how to fare well): punish Williams for his punchrate style consistently enough that you win rounds and be in good enough shape that you don't wear down. Quintana had to fight the fight of his life to do it, then couldn't duplicate that feat. Martinez was nearly up to the task.
I didn't score the fight, but I probably should have. I didn't expect the fight to be as close or as good as it was, frankly. I could go back and score it again and it's a good enough fight to warrant that, but I haven't yet done it. I know this: every round was competitive and I only saw one round, I recall it was the 8th, where the fighters seemed to take the first half off. Otherwise, nearly every moment of every round was a punch-filled slugfest. As Max Kellerman opined, it was like Gatti/Ward, but contested at a higher level of skill. The analogy is imperfect, but apt. These guys were both there to win and they threw a lot of bad intention punches and each absorbed a lot of punishment. The momentum actually didn't seem to shift as much as some super action fights do...and that is why I leaned toward Williams. He drove the action, following Martinez throughout the fight and forcing Martinez to engage, but almost only ever in response.
And engage Martinez did. As is typical for Williams, he was throwing about 90-100 punches a round, but he seemed less accurate than I've seen him before. I suspect that he took Martinez lightly. The HBO team intoned that Williams' trainer had predicted a quick KO. Credit however should go to Martinez because as much as it's possible Williams wasn't razor sharp, Martinez may have been making him miss. Martinez' hands were faster and while giving away a full six inches in height and probably a comparable amount in reach, he landed consistently all night. He keeps his hands down at his sides between flurries, literally dropping them at his sides. It's amazing he was able to maintain that stylistic flaw against the ever-pursuing Williams, but he did. He changed tactics successfully at least once, adding a straight lefthanded body attack about halfway through the fight, temporarily causing a ripple in Williams' constant aggression. He also landed cleanly at least as frequently, if not more frequently, than did Williams. Then how did he lose?
Well, since I didn't score it I'd have to defer to the actual judging and Harold Lederman's card (which seemed fair and had the fight even at 95-95 going into the two final "championship rounds"of the 12 round fight). I'm tempted to throw out the 119-110 score by the ringside Judge who, along with a 115-113 score for Williams threw the fight to him. Indeed, Julie Lederman (yes, Harold's daughter) scored it even at 114-114. The one lopsided score seems unrealistic, even if you scored most of the close rounds for Williams. Martinez was consistently more effective in enough rounds to take enough rounds to make it close. Jim Lampley bluntly called that Judge "blind." The Martinez camp literally screamed "travesty" from behind their fighter when asked about it post-fight by Kellerman. I suspect I'd have given the final two close rounds to Williams, especially the closing round. Martinez was obviously wearing out and though he kept up his counterattack even then, it was clearly borne more of a fighting spirit than conditioning. He was pushing past his limits, which while admirable, highlited the fact that Williams had walked through the best he could give, kept coming with a higher punchrate, and still looked ready to go into no longer extant rounds 13 to 15.
Bottom line, Williams' constant aggression again carried the day for him. Martinez was definitely effective, but since he could do little more than backpedal all night long, firing from his back foot while the iron-chinned (mostly...once he realized he was in a fight, anyway) Williams advanced. The barrage made Martinez look like he was the one who had bitten off more than he could chew, rather than the other way around. Kellerman claimed in the post-fight interview that he'd scored it for Martinez. While that score was unquestionably plausible, I would disagree and tend to think, as I thought was the case with some lengthy portions of Lampleys' call, that a card for Martinez would have to be predicated on spending more time watching what Martinez was doing, to the exclusion of Williams. It's an easy mistake to make because Williams is so constant that to see the aggression effectively counter-attacked is enticing. Martinez was indeed able to do so in spots and he showed great heart and skill...but that is not to say he won the fight. He was able to make it close...which against Paul Williams means you are a special fighter. At least on this night.
Which brings us to the best question: rematch? Martinez says he wants to do it and Williams says he's willing. I say do it! Will Martinez be able to handle a fully prepared Williams, who definitely won't take him lightly a second time around? Quintana couldn't. Does anyone else want to fight either of these guys? probably not. Can they build a meaningful rivalry between the two of them and continue to raise both their profiles with great fights? maybe...but the problem is that Williams won this one. It would work better if Martinez had won. Apart from not being able to find a fighter anywhere in the vast division neighborhood he's willing to occupy (from 147 lb to 160 lb and beyond), there's little incentive for Williams. But that "noone will fight me" problem is very real for him and I for one, would like to see this fight again. Will Martinez be another Quintana? I think not. But then again, do I think he can beat Williams in a rematch? No. But still...a realfightfan loves to see a real fight. And both of these men are real fighters.
Sunday, November 22, 2009
Andre Ward: God's Super-middleweight Sheriff?
There's a new sheriff in the violent and exciting wild west show of a town that the super-middleweight division has become...and his name is Andre Ward. In fact, to listen to sheriff Ward, it's God who handed him the badge. Let's address that first. Andre...are you aware that by claiming God is in your corner and giving credit to him and his son Jesus Christ for your victory, you're not just implying...but you're saying that Mikkel Kessler is less favored in God's eyes than you are? How charitable is that? And which of the deadly sins, if you subscribe to that list, is that? Oh yeah...pride.
My point is...please Andre, feel free to wear your faith on your sleeve and give credit to your faith in your creator, but stop intoning that if "God is in your corner, can't no one be against you...". It's a boxing match. And when you lose, will God have been against you? Of course not. It will all have been in his big plan, right? Well, so then was this.
Next, a big thank you to Showtime for this next installment in the Super-middleweight Showdown Super Six Tournament. This definitely felt like a fight that would never have been made, but for the tourney. Why would Kessler travel to Ward's Oakland backyard to put his title on the line? He wouldn't have, particularly since there are plenty of european names in the division (participating in this tournament...Froch, Abraham) or less dangerous names like Bute or Andrade who would still pad the resume. Credit to Kessler for agreeing to put his belt on the line in the name of division supremacy. Without him, the whole idea falls apart.
I wonder how Kessler feels today though, now that the risk seems to have outstripped the reward? He'll get his chance for redemption, but if last night was any indicator...he's got no answer for Andre Ward. As we've learned clearly lately (about 30 pounds south), speed kills. Well last night it killed Kessler dead.
The WBA champ Kessler looked like the overmatched challenger all night. Former USA Gold medalist Ward settled in early, realizing his speed advantage, and never took his foot off the gas. I agree with Al Bernstein of the Showtime crew that he looked a little reckless in the middle rounds, throwing wildly and taking unnecessary risks, but I suspect that he sensed Kessler was totally confounded. Used to walking his opponents down, Kessler clearly hadn't faced anyone with such a sizeable speed advantage since he'd logged his only previous defeat to Joe Calzaghe.
By the third round, Ward was loading up and by the sixth of a scheduled twelve, Ward was backing Kessler up and moving him around at will. I gave a desperate Kessler the 9th round (the only round he won on my card) on sheer aggressiveness, but he was ineffective. The ringside judges managed to find another round to give to Kessler (the imported dutch judge found even one more...though how is one of the mysteries of boxing scoring), but it easily could have been scored a shutout.
Now there is no question that Ward was tying up more than was Kessler and one of his butts looked intentional to me, something he denied in the post-fight interviews. Denying he is a "dirty fighter", the replay showed Ward turning his whole body in toward Kessler, head down, and showing no effort to bring his gloves up. Classic billygoat move. Because this came later in a fight where another such move had prompted a mild warning from the referee, I would have taken a point for it. However, otherwise his holding wasn't as excessive as Kessler claimed in a slightly cringe-worthy whining post-fight interview, especially for a longtime champion who was so thoroughly outclassed. Kessler managed to pack a lot of whine into a two minute interview for a guy who absorbed so much leather: the ref home-towned him, he was held all night, he was deliberately butted.
Even if all that was true...he got his behind whupped by a superior boxer. In the end, that was all that mattered. Indeed, the fight did go to the scorecards in the eleventh after the fight was stopped because Kessler's cuts were too severe to allow him to continue and the offending cut was ruled to have been caused by an unintentional headbutt. The scores were lopsided, as they should have been. I had it 99-91 for the challenger and two judges had it 98-92, with the last imported judge scoring it 97-93.
So...how good is Ward? Well, he looked tremendous and made Kessler look slow by comparison. But the beauty of the Super Six tournament, as was ably pointed out by Jim Grey (whom I'm loathe to laud), makes it possible that the next scheduled opponent can dethrone Ward. Who is that? Jermaine Taylor. He who has been so consistently written off by...well...everyone. How will Jermaine do? I predict he beats Ward. Unless these KOs he's recently endured make him drop a step, which I don't think they will, Ward will take him light and it will cost Ward his new crown. Taylor is underestimated, even now...and Ward doesn't have the one-punch power to endanger Taylor at fight's end (the way Froch and Abraham have done).
Great fight. Great tournament. Looking forward to the next installment. Now can we PLEASE stop showing the MMA fighters on boxing night. Herschel Walker is a fool to try MMA. I know at the opening of this website, I've given props to the courage of MMA fighters and that is unchanged, but if you've read this deep into my posts than you can now know what I think of the sport itself: human cockfighting. The fighters are often underqualified, the matches are made without regard to skill and the pool of fighters is shallow and the entire sport run by one or two men who own all the fighters, purses and matchmaking. Interestingly, boxing is deep, strong and honest by comparison. MMA will see it's day pass and thank God (see Andre? I can go to the well, too) for Pacman and Mayweather...the latest in a series of fights to "save" boxing. The bloodsport just civilized enough to survive and thrive against all comers.
My point is...please Andre, feel free to wear your faith on your sleeve and give credit to your faith in your creator, but stop intoning that if "God is in your corner, can't no one be against you...". It's a boxing match. And when you lose, will God have been against you? Of course not. It will all have been in his big plan, right? Well, so then was this.
Next, a big thank you to Showtime for this next installment in the Super-middleweight Showdown Super Six Tournament. This definitely felt like a fight that would never have been made, but for the tourney. Why would Kessler travel to Ward's Oakland backyard to put his title on the line? He wouldn't have, particularly since there are plenty of european names in the division (participating in this tournament...Froch, Abraham) or less dangerous names like Bute or Andrade who would still pad the resume. Credit to Kessler for agreeing to put his belt on the line in the name of division supremacy. Without him, the whole idea falls apart.
I wonder how Kessler feels today though, now that the risk seems to have outstripped the reward? He'll get his chance for redemption, but if last night was any indicator...he's got no answer for Andre Ward. As we've learned clearly lately (about 30 pounds south), speed kills. Well last night it killed Kessler dead.
The WBA champ Kessler looked like the overmatched challenger all night. Former USA Gold medalist Ward settled in early, realizing his speed advantage, and never took his foot off the gas. I agree with Al Bernstein of the Showtime crew that he looked a little reckless in the middle rounds, throwing wildly and taking unnecessary risks, but I suspect that he sensed Kessler was totally confounded. Used to walking his opponents down, Kessler clearly hadn't faced anyone with such a sizeable speed advantage since he'd logged his only previous defeat to Joe Calzaghe.
By the third round, Ward was loading up and by the sixth of a scheduled twelve, Ward was backing Kessler up and moving him around at will. I gave a desperate Kessler the 9th round (the only round he won on my card) on sheer aggressiveness, but he was ineffective. The ringside judges managed to find another round to give to Kessler (the imported dutch judge found even one more...though how is one of the mysteries of boxing scoring), but it easily could have been scored a shutout.
Now there is no question that Ward was tying up more than was Kessler and one of his butts looked intentional to me, something he denied in the post-fight interviews. Denying he is a "dirty fighter", the replay showed Ward turning his whole body in toward Kessler, head down, and showing no effort to bring his gloves up. Classic billygoat move. Because this came later in a fight where another such move had prompted a mild warning from the referee, I would have taken a point for it. However, otherwise his holding wasn't as excessive as Kessler claimed in a slightly cringe-worthy whining post-fight interview, especially for a longtime champion who was so thoroughly outclassed. Kessler managed to pack a lot of whine into a two minute interview for a guy who absorbed so much leather: the ref home-towned him, he was held all night, he was deliberately butted.
Even if all that was true...he got his behind whupped by a superior boxer. In the end, that was all that mattered. Indeed, the fight did go to the scorecards in the eleventh after the fight was stopped because Kessler's cuts were too severe to allow him to continue and the offending cut was ruled to have been caused by an unintentional headbutt. The scores were lopsided, as they should have been. I had it 99-91 for the challenger and two judges had it 98-92, with the last imported judge scoring it 97-93.
So...how good is Ward? Well, he looked tremendous and made Kessler look slow by comparison. But the beauty of the Super Six tournament, as was ably pointed out by Jim Grey (whom I'm loathe to laud), makes it possible that the next scheduled opponent can dethrone Ward. Who is that? Jermaine Taylor. He who has been so consistently written off by...well...everyone. How will Jermaine do? I predict he beats Ward. Unless these KOs he's recently endured make him drop a step, which I don't think they will, Ward will take him light and it will cost Ward his new crown. Taylor is underestimated, even now...and Ward doesn't have the one-punch power to endanger Taylor at fight's end (the way Froch and Abraham have done).
Great fight. Great tournament. Looking forward to the next installment. Now can we PLEASE stop showing the MMA fighters on boxing night. Herschel Walker is a fool to try MMA. I know at the opening of this website, I've given props to the courage of MMA fighters and that is unchanged, but if you've read this deep into my posts than you can now know what I think of the sport itself: human cockfighting. The fighters are often underqualified, the matches are made without regard to skill and the pool of fighters is shallow and the entire sport run by one or two men who own all the fighters, purses and matchmaking. Interestingly, boxing is deep, strong and honest by comparison. MMA will see it's day pass and thank God (see Andre? I can go to the well, too) for Pacman and Mayweather...the latest in a series of fights to "save" boxing. The bloodsport just civilized enough to survive and thrive against all comers.
Sunday, November 15, 2009
Manny Pacquiao: best fighter today...or ever?
As I watch the post-fight highlights even before the particulars are announced, I can't help but wonder whether we're getting the privilege of watching the best boxer ever to lace on gloves: Manny Pacquiao. As he picks up his record seventh title in seven weight divisions, the arguments are strong. To hear Pacquiao compared by Emmanuel Steward with the caliber of fighter of Sugar Ray Robinson seems proof positive. What a brutal pleasure to get to see the prime of the Pac-man. Manila is surely going wild tonight.
Miguel Cotto clearly came prepared and expected to be able to match speed with Manny. At first, it seemed possible. Then Manny warmed up. He dropped Cotto in the third and fourth rounds and began to mark him up so badly that Cotto's face was ground beef by the time it was stopped in the 12th. Ever the classy guy, Cotto agreed to be interviewed in the ring after the fight by Larry Merchant where we got to see the extent of the damage. Cotto didn't hide behind sunglasses and his eyes were so badly swelled and reddened that it was a wonder he could see out of either eye.
I had Pacquiao ahead 107-99 by the time Kenny Bayless mercifully stepped in, giving Pacquiao the TKO in the 12th. The once-proud Cotto spent almost the entire second half of the fight running from the smaller, faster Pacquiao. Pacquiao meanwhile walked him down, eventually getting obviously frustrated by Cotto's unwillingness to engage, rushing occasionally to pin Cotto in a corner or against the ropes to inflict more damage...and waiting for someone to stop the carnage. It wasn't going to be Cotto, so eventually the referee did it.
The second knockdown was really telling. Pacquiao rope-a-doped Cotto for almost a full minute, then flushed a left uppercut while backing out from a close quarters exchange and took away Cotto's legs. Cotto clearly didn't see it coming and he admitted in the post-fight that, predictably, his biggest problem was that he was unable to defend himself against punches he couldn't see coming. Speed kills.
My prediction of a seventh round KO almost came true. Indeed, I wrote as I watched that I almost felt sorry for the brave Cotto who, so clearly prepared and steeled for battle, was so badly outmatched. Cotto was totally defensive by that point and between the seventh and eighth, his corner told him to "keep away...move side to side", apparently resigned to the result even that early because at that point their fighter was already down at least five points down.
So...how will Mayweather handle Pacquiao? As the HBO team pointed out, the economics of the fight seem to make it impossible not to make happen. It would probably outstrip DelaHoya/Mayweather in pay-per-view buys...which is what we presume Mayweather has been waiting for. Or is it? I wonder if Mayweather will keep up the running outside the ring that has characterized his ring presence in the ring. I hope not, but if history tells us anything...it's possible. He refused to rematch Delahoya, whom he barely scraped past. Keep in mind that Pac ate DelaHoya up. The reverse comparison of Mayweather/Marquez is a little less convincing, where it comes to comparing common opponents.
But styles make fights and this matchup matches speed against speed. And Pac's speed is better, but Mayweather's skills as a defensive fighter are better. Can Mayweather survive long enough to take a decision? potshot and slip away? tie Pac up, land and turn out...over and over and over? These are the questions that make up the analysis. He's definitely willing..we know that much.
By that I mean that Mayweather has proven that he is perfectly willing to win ugly and by decision. He doesn't mind backing up, tying up, potshotting and running away. He possesses just enough speed, skill and willingness to do it to Pac for 12 full rounds. My first instinct is that Mayweather wins a disappointingly dull decision where Pacquiao spends half the night inviting him to fight, chasing him and eating a single shot coming in, then coming up empty...over and over. The other half, he spends tied up by Mayweather, who slips, uppercuts and rabbit punches around Pac's guard. Mayweather by ugly decision.
Our collective hope is that Pacquiao, with his otherworldly speed (rivaled perhaps only by Mayweather himself actually), can make Mayweather pay for his hubris and willing half-cowardice. Mayweather backs out warily and lightning fast from his one or two punch mini-offensives. Can Manny, who comes quicker and with heavy leather from more difficult angles than any fighter alive, jump in and catch Floyd? Maybe...just maybe. I'll definitely tune in.
As for Miguel Cotto, he gave us a brave fight. But he was badly outmatched. I'm amazed at that though, because he is a fast fighter. He did match Mosley's speed and Mayweather has been ducking Mosley his whole career, presumably because of Mosley's speed and power. If Mosley was matched on speed by Cotto, but Cotto was blown out by Pacquiao...the speed differential may well carry over and we'll see Mayweather fall exactly as we've seen DelaHoya and Cotto fall. These were two great fighters. Both utterly destroyed by the speed of Manny Pacquiao. Wow. That's all there is left to say. Wow.
Miguel Cotto clearly came prepared and expected to be able to match speed with Manny. At first, it seemed possible. Then Manny warmed up. He dropped Cotto in the third and fourth rounds and began to mark him up so badly that Cotto's face was ground beef by the time it was stopped in the 12th. Ever the classy guy, Cotto agreed to be interviewed in the ring after the fight by Larry Merchant where we got to see the extent of the damage. Cotto didn't hide behind sunglasses and his eyes were so badly swelled and reddened that it was a wonder he could see out of either eye.
I had Pacquiao ahead 107-99 by the time Kenny Bayless mercifully stepped in, giving Pacquiao the TKO in the 12th. The once-proud Cotto spent almost the entire second half of the fight running from the smaller, faster Pacquiao. Pacquiao meanwhile walked him down, eventually getting obviously frustrated by Cotto's unwillingness to engage, rushing occasionally to pin Cotto in a corner or against the ropes to inflict more damage...and waiting for someone to stop the carnage. It wasn't going to be Cotto, so eventually the referee did it.
The second knockdown was really telling. Pacquiao rope-a-doped Cotto for almost a full minute, then flushed a left uppercut while backing out from a close quarters exchange and took away Cotto's legs. Cotto clearly didn't see it coming and he admitted in the post-fight that, predictably, his biggest problem was that he was unable to defend himself against punches he couldn't see coming. Speed kills.
My prediction of a seventh round KO almost came true. Indeed, I wrote as I watched that I almost felt sorry for the brave Cotto who, so clearly prepared and steeled for battle, was so badly outmatched. Cotto was totally defensive by that point and between the seventh and eighth, his corner told him to "keep away...move side to side", apparently resigned to the result even that early because at that point their fighter was already down at least five points down.
So...how will Mayweather handle Pacquiao? As the HBO team pointed out, the economics of the fight seem to make it impossible not to make happen. It would probably outstrip DelaHoya/Mayweather in pay-per-view buys...which is what we presume Mayweather has been waiting for. Or is it? I wonder if Mayweather will keep up the running outside the ring that has characterized his ring presence in the ring. I hope not, but if history tells us anything...it's possible. He refused to rematch Delahoya, whom he barely scraped past. Keep in mind that Pac ate DelaHoya up. The reverse comparison of Mayweather/Marquez is a little less convincing, where it comes to comparing common opponents.
But styles make fights and this matchup matches speed against speed. And Pac's speed is better, but Mayweather's skills as a defensive fighter are better. Can Mayweather survive long enough to take a decision? potshot and slip away? tie Pac up, land and turn out...over and over and over? These are the questions that make up the analysis. He's definitely willing..we know that much.
By that I mean that Mayweather has proven that he is perfectly willing to win ugly and by decision. He doesn't mind backing up, tying up, potshotting and running away. He possesses just enough speed, skill and willingness to do it to Pac for 12 full rounds. My first instinct is that Mayweather wins a disappointingly dull decision where Pacquiao spends half the night inviting him to fight, chasing him and eating a single shot coming in, then coming up empty...over and over. The other half, he spends tied up by Mayweather, who slips, uppercuts and rabbit punches around Pac's guard. Mayweather by ugly decision.
Our collective hope is that Pacquiao, with his otherworldly speed (rivaled perhaps only by Mayweather himself actually), can make Mayweather pay for his hubris and willing half-cowardice. Mayweather backs out warily and lightning fast from his one or two punch mini-offensives. Can Manny, who comes quicker and with heavy leather from more difficult angles than any fighter alive, jump in and catch Floyd? Maybe...just maybe. I'll definitely tune in.
As for Miguel Cotto, he gave us a brave fight. But he was badly outmatched. I'm amazed at that though, because he is a fast fighter. He did match Mosley's speed and Mayweather has been ducking Mosley his whole career, presumably because of Mosley's speed and power. If Mosley was matched on speed by Cotto, but Cotto was blown out by Pacquiao...the speed differential may well carry over and we'll see Mayweather fall exactly as we've seen DelaHoya and Cotto fall. These were two great fighters. Both utterly destroyed by the speed of Manny Pacquiao. Wow. That's all there is left to say. Wow.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Pacquiao v. Cotto prediction and Chad Dawson finally beats Johnson
First of all, let me say that Max Kellerman's statement at the conclusion of Dawson/Johnson II was weak: "now 6 judges in two states have decided Chad Dawson got the better of Glen Johnson."
It's weak because anyone who watched the first fight knows that Glencoffe Johnson won that fight. It wasn't that close...and most tellingly, there would never have been a second fight but for that fact. Whether Dawson took Johnson lightly the first time around or Johnson the journeyman gatekeeper fought over his head that night isn't clear. What absolutely was clear was that Johnson got the better of a gunshy, overwhelmed and backpedaling Dawson. At the time, I didn't really know either fighter and watched the fight because I'd heard tell of the skill of Dawson. What I tuned in to see was a boxing lesson administered by the opponent, who then was robbed by judges who only apparently spent the fight watching what Dawson did and stole a decision for him. Their robbery may count on the fighter's records, but any realfightfan like Max purports to be would not belittle a fading Johnson at the conclusion of the lopsided second fight by mentioning the travesty of the first fight.
As for the rematch, it was a walkover and quite predictably so. Importantly, Dawson has matured. He fought more consistently and avoided going to war, which will always favor the cagey Johnson, even now. Next, Dawson didn't take Johnson lightly this time. This could be judged by the way he stayed away, didn't seem surprised at Johnson's pressure and used his natural reach advantage to stay out of danger. Finally, he waited until Johnson was a little older to rematch him. He didn't take him right away...he waited. Years during the prime of a boxer's career are usually almost interchangeable...but at the end of a boxer's career, months let alone years can make a big difference. "Bad" Chad Dawson didn't rematch Glencoffe right away. He let Johnson age a bit...and at Johnson's age, that's a lot.
Now for the prediction. Okay, the truth is that I haven't given this a lot of thought because I'm really looking forward to a good fight and without overanalyzing it (on purpose until now), I've been expecting to get it. Will we get a great fight? Well, let's think about it. I'm not aware of whether there is a catchweight, so I'm assuming the fight is being made at 146 lbs, Cotto's natural fighting weight and the same weight Pacquiao fought Oscar, if I recall correctly. Pacquiao blew out Ricky Hatton at 142 lbs..
What are the arguments for Cotto? He is closer to his natural weight, though as he's getting a little older (not old), he's probably having a bit more trouble making 146 lb. Will doing so sap his strength? I think not. He's a year-round trainer and a very serious character. So he'll be at full strength, whatever that means. When I first saw Cotto, he looked unbeatable. One of, if the single best body puncher I've ever seen. But lately, he's been abandoning that trademark attack. He went to war with Margarito, only to find that the tough Mexican could absorb ungodly amounts of heavy leather to the face (while dishing out a disproportionately heavy attack because of surely loaded gloves). Despite his failed strategy, Cotto was clearly winning the fight until the later rounds, when he suddenly seemed to flag under the heavy (and loaded) hands of Margarito. Battered, Cotto succumbed to the cheater, sinking to his knees and defenselessly absorbing shot after shot as he fell. That image is tough to shake when considering the fighter...even though that's like deeply unfair to Cotto.
Sadly, boxing is not like baseball where the consequences of cheating are longer home runs or fewer injuries. The consequences are written in blood across the psyches of the defeated fighters, etched indelibly too in our collective memories. When the fighters don't die, we are lucky. And as a pertinent aside, Antonio Margarito should never again be allowed to put on prizefighter's gloves for pay, in my opinion. How wonderful was it that the ageless Sugar Shane exposed him one way, then the other and cast him (hopefully...I'm talking to you athletic commissions) into obscurity and infamy where he belongs.
Has Cotto recovered? He says so. He knows Margarito cheated that night, though he wasn't caught (that night). We all do. Is that enough? Can a fighter, even one as dedicated and tough as Cotto, regain the mojo that Margarito stole from him when he took his zero? I don't think so. The tattoos that Cotto has added seem to me like armor to ward off doubt. He is still shaping himself into a weapon, but he will never again be the undefeated Cotto who demolished Malignaggi and was walking through his opponents, killing the body to watch the head die.
Why has Cotto abandoned the body attack that got him into the elite conversation? Who knows. Perhaps it's too attractive to punch another elite fighter in the head, as was the case with Margarito. Perhaps he feels challenged and can't either access the body or must have the style of the fight dictated to him, as was the case with Mosley. Whatever the reason, if he doesn't spend the first few rounds taking Pacquiao's legs away, he will be in trouble because while he's definitely a tough guy, he's proven he can be knocked down. And not just by Margarito. He's been down before to lesser fighters.
Speed kills. Who is faster? While Cotto is fast, Pacquiao is faster. How much faster? fast enough. I think Pacquiao, as he moves up and since he is clearly bringing serious power up with him at this weight, is creating matchup problems with his speed. He is simply able to get there first. Every time. And if that's true, then the question is how hard is he hitting? He hits hard. Ask Oscar. A career warrior forced into retirement on his stool rather than futilely absorb more punishment at Pacman's hands. Ask Hatton, who had no answer at all.
It's a popular pick to pick Pacquiao and he's easy to like, too. I do like him...but then again, I've always like Cotto and admired his heart, his toughness, his skill and his tenacity. If Cotto is to have a chance, he will have to back Pacquiao off. He may be able to accomplish that with body punching. But going low after the little man's body will expose his head and Pac is nothing if not an accurate headhunter. Cotto's style is not to keep his opponent off (the way Mayweather will, when he and Pac inevitably and finally tangle...if you want to call Mayweather turning it into a snoozefest to tangle). Cotto engages. And in this fight, when Cotto engages, he will find himself facing the same problem faced by his predecessor's at this weight: he will be getting hit hard in the face. One punch KO type of hard. Harder than a little man should hit. And Cotto can't train for that.
I call it for Pacquiao in round seven by KO. I hope it's a better fight than that, though. I don't know who I want to see win, but I want to see a good fight. I do think it will be a good fight for a while, but we will see Cotto become discouraged much earlier than we (who are not in the ring) think he should. He will all too likely be facing a problem that he can't solve. He'll come forward and engage the problem and the problem will solve him in return.
It's weak because anyone who watched the first fight knows that Glencoffe Johnson won that fight. It wasn't that close...and most tellingly, there would never have been a second fight but for that fact. Whether Dawson took Johnson lightly the first time around or Johnson the journeyman gatekeeper fought over his head that night isn't clear. What absolutely was clear was that Johnson got the better of a gunshy, overwhelmed and backpedaling Dawson. At the time, I didn't really know either fighter and watched the fight because I'd heard tell of the skill of Dawson. What I tuned in to see was a boxing lesson administered by the opponent, who then was robbed by judges who only apparently spent the fight watching what Dawson did and stole a decision for him. Their robbery may count on the fighter's records, but any realfightfan like Max purports to be would not belittle a fading Johnson at the conclusion of the lopsided second fight by mentioning the travesty of the first fight.
As for the rematch, it was a walkover and quite predictably so. Importantly, Dawson has matured. He fought more consistently and avoided going to war, which will always favor the cagey Johnson, even now. Next, Dawson didn't take Johnson lightly this time. This could be judged by the way he stayed away, didn't seem surprised at Johnson's pressure and used his natural reach advantage to stay out of danger. Finally, he waited until Johnson was a little older to rematch him. He didn't take him right away...he waited. Years during the prime of a boxer's career are usually almost interchangeable...but at the end of a boxer's career, months let alone years can make a big difference. "Bad" Chad Dawson didn't rematch Glencoffe right away. He let Johnson age a bit...and at Johnson's age, that's a lot.
Now for the prediction. Okay, the truth is that I haven't given this a lot of thought because I'm really looking forward to a good fight and without overanalyzing it (on purpose until now), I've been expecting to get it. Will we get a great fight? Well, let's think about it. I'm not aware of whether there is a catchweight, so I'm assuming the fight is being made at 146 lbs, Cotto's natural fighting weight and the same weight Pacquiao fought Oscar, if I recall correctly. Pacquiao blew out Ricky Hatton at 142 lbs..
What are the arguments for Cotto? He is closer to his natural weight, though as he's getting a little older (not old), he's probably having a bit more trouble making 146 lb. Will doing so sap his strength? I think not. He's a year-round trainer and a very serious character. So he'll be at full strength, whatever that means. When I first saw Cotto, he looked unbeatable. One of, if the single best body puncher I've ever seen. But lately, he's been abandoning that trademark attack. He went to war with Margarito, only to find that the tough Mexican could absorb ungodly amounts of heavy leather to the face (while dishing out a disproportionately heavy attack because of surely loaded gloves). Despite his failed strategy, Cotto was clearly winning the fight until the later rounds, when he suddenly seemed to flag under the heavy (and loaded) hands of Margarito. Battered, Cotto succumbed to the cheater, sinking to his knees and defenselessly absorbing shot after shot as he fell. That image is tough to shake when considering the fighter...even though that's like deeply unfair to Cotto.
Sadly, boxing is not like baseball where the consequences of cheating are longer home runs or fewer injuries. The consequences are written in blood across the psyches of the defeated fighters, etched indelibly too in our collective memories. When the fighters don't die, we are lucky. And as a pertinent aside, Antonio Margarito should never again be allowed to put on prizefighter's gloves for pay, in my opinion. How wonderful was it that the ageless Sugar Shane exposed him one way, then the other and cast him (hopefully...I'm talking to you athletic commissions) into obscurity and infamy where he belongs.
Has Cotto recovered? He says so. He knows Margarito cheated that night, though he wasn't caught (that night). We all do. Is that enough? Can a fighter, even one as dedicated and tough as Cotto, regain the mojo that Margarito stole from him when he took his zero? I don't think so. The tattoos that Cotto has added seem to me like armor to ward off doubt. He is still shaping himself into a weapon, but he will never again be the undefeated Cotto who demolished Malignaggi and was walking through his opponents, killing the body to watch the head die.
Why has Cotto abandoned the body attack that got him into the elite conversation? Who knows. Perhaps it's too attractive to punch another elite fighter in the head, as was the case with Margarito. Perhaps he feels challenged and can't either access the body or must have the style of the fight dictated to him, as was the case with Mosley. Whatever the reason, if he doesn't spend the first few rounds taking Pacquiao's legs away, he will be in trouble because while he's definitely a tough guy, he's proven he can be knocked down. And not just by Margarito. He's been down before to lesser fighters.
Speed kills. Who is faster? While Cotto is fast, Pacquiao is faster. How much faster? fast enough. I think Pacquiao, as he moves up and since he is clearly bringing serious power up with him at this weight, is creating matchup problems with his speed. He is simply able to get there first. Every time. And if that's true, then the question is how hard is he hitting? He hits hard. Ask Oscar. A career warrior forced into retirement on his stool rather than futilely absorb more punishment at Pacman's hands. Ask Hatton, who had no answer at all.
It's a popular pick to pick Pacquiao and he's easy to like, too. I do like him...but then again, I've always like Cotto and admired his heart, his toughness, his skill and his tenacity. If Cotto is to have a chance, he will have to back Pacquiao off. He may be able to accomplish that with body punching. But going low after the little man's body will expose his head and Pac is nothing if not an accurate headhunter. Cotto's style is not to keep his opponent off (the way Mayweather will, when he and Pac inevitably and finally tangle...if you want to call Mayweather turning it into a snoozefest to tangle). Cotto engages. And in this fight, when Cotto engages, he will find himself facing the same problem faced by his predecessor's at this weight: he will be getting hit hard in the face. One punch KO type of hard. Harder than a little man should hit. And Cotto can't train for that.
I call it for Pacquiao in round seven by KO. I hope it's a better fight than that, though. I don't know who I want to see win, but I want to see a good fight. I do think it will be a good fight for a while, but we will see Cotto become discouraged much earlier than we (who are not in the ring) think he should. He will all too likely be facing a problem that he can't solve. He'll come forward and engage the problem and the problem will solve him in return.
Sunday, October 18, 2009
The Super Middleweight Tournament Begins!
First I want to thank Showtime for putting on what is now panning out to be a great supermiddleweight tournament. Next, I want to complain about the quality of announcing.
Jermaine Taylor v. Arthur Abraham was a very good fight and pretty evenly matched, though Taylor clearly carried the majority of the rounds by sticking, moving and counterpunching with some effectiveness. Abraham spent the majority of the first half of the fight covering up in his peek-a-boo defense and Taylor kept him off-balance by hammering his guard, preventing him from getting off most of the time. What I've described for the first six rounds is practically indisputable, but if you heard the Steve Farhood-led call of this fight you would have thought it was a far more even match. The announcing team was so pro-Abraham that they seemed not to be watching Taylor at all. Every thrown punch by Abraham was a "hammering blow" whether landed or not. Abraham, stalled by the jabs drilling his guard, was "biding his time" as round after round slipped away. But not according the announcers, seemingly caught up in the emotion of the hugely pro-Abraham crowd, refused to acknowledge Taylor's dramatic edge in punchrate, thrown and landed.
Though Abraham, the repeatedly forgiven (and ignored, if the late round alleged tallies of the announcers are to be believed) "late starter" finally warmed up and began banging by round seven and eight, he merely began to make these rounds close. To my mind, Abraham was down at least three points going into the eleventh, where Taylor stepped up the pace and pulled ahead. Nonetheless, in the tenth, the announcing team started talking about how Abraham could be "coasting" because of his big lead on points and indeed at the end of a few rounds, including the end of the eleventh, he was dancing away for the last twenty or thirty seconds, seemingly assured of a win in the round.
Now I know that Abraham won by KO, nailing Taylor on the button with less than a minute left in a practical carbon copy of what Carl Froch did to Taylor just months ago, but this time, I didn't see Taylor fading. I saw him coming on and taking chances. Perhaps that's exactly what left him open to the straight shot on the chin that put him definitively down, but he was definitely in the fight. I was sorry to see Jermaine dropped. I think, considering the fight was clearly in Abraham's back yard, Taylor would have been hard pressed to win the decision he deserved, but to fight over 35 minutes of a 36 minute fight and get KO'd is a real bummer for a classy, fast fighter who will all too likely contiue to get derided (as the Showtime crew repeatedly did) for fading late...when he didn't. He got caught, but he was going full bore.
As for Abraham, he looked like a guy with heavy hands whose hand speed, when he opens up, is good...but I'm not yet sold. He fights like an undefeated fighter, meaning he hasn't yet learned he can lose (notwithstanding his decision win with a grotesquely shattered jaw against Miranda). He thinks that eventually he will catch up to his man...but as he gets into deep water, he'll find that the best fighters can elude him all fight long. That's what I figured Taylor would do...but his concentration lapsed...or he felt he had to wildly engage to win the last round to have a chance in a biased venue. As among these super middles, I'm not sure who's better...probably Kessler...probably Ward, too...but Abraham, by KO'ing Taylor in the last minute of a fight he, like Froch, was losing (by any fair measure) doesn't convince me to annoint him the best of the best. Happily, notwithstanding their poor announcing squad, Showtime is settling that.
The modified round-robin format was explained in detail on the telecast and, irrespective of the issues with hometown scoring and fan support, it seems very fair. I'm impressed that all of these diverse fighters and their teams could agree and I can only imagine that Showtime played a big role in the final arrangements. Thanks Showtime.
Now to bash showtime for their coverage of another great fight they arranged, and which showed in quick succession from the unconscionably pro-Froch British venue: Carl Froch v. Andre Dirrell. Dirrell is clearly the superior boxer. He was markedly faster on his feet, had distinctly better handspeed and punched with far more accuracy. His greatest asset however leads to his greatest shortcoming: he can get away, so he does get away. Meaning, since he can punch once or twice and dance away, avoiding harm, he does. For those of us who like to watch fighters mix it up, that can be frustrating...but for fans of the much slower, but hometown (for this fight) Carl Froch, this was infuriating.
Showering Dirrell with boos, the hometown fans went wild when Froch advanced and even tried to punch. The net effect was that the referee began to favor Froch, by ignoring his almost constant fouling, and the Showtime announcing crew apparently starting watching only Froch to see if and when he could connect. This fight was more lopsided that the Taylor/Abraham affair, again favoring the American fighter in a hostile venue, and again the announcing team was clearly swept away by the fever of the local fight crowd (as were the judges!). To be fair, Dirrell did at times look like he was afraid to engage, and Froch was relegated to stalker an awful lot...but the very frustration Froch felt exposed him for the dirty fighter he is.
And it was Dirrell who had the only point taken all night. I counted no less than nine obvious distinct rabbit punches by Froch and he only ever got warned. The referee seemed to hold Dirrell to a higher standard because he was so clearly the superior technician. Froch was seemingly allowed to get away with more holding and hitting, rabbit punching and bullying (literally throwing Dirrell to the canvas once, over his hip) because he had so much trouble with Dirrell's style: he just couldn't catch him. So it seemed to me that the ref was willing to forgive Froch his roughhouse tactics because well...that's the way he fights. In that case, taking a point from Dirrell for holding was so manifestly unfair that it smacked of an inside job.
Dirrell was classy in accepting the split decision that went Froch's way, seeming to know that he would live to fight another day. Indeed, take Froch out of a venue where his every aggressive movement yields a roar of approval and the result changes. Plug in a referee that keeps Froch honest, at peril of points, and the result would have been what it should have been: Dirrell by unanimous decision. Dirrell could stand to be more crowd pleasing in his style, something he needs to learn now that he's in with fighters who won't wilt when he dazzles with his speed, accuracy and even power. Failing to appreciate that cost him this fight, though I can't say that I think he had a fair shot. He said that he thought he did, in the post-right interview. I wonder, when he goes back to look at it again, if he'll still think so.
Here's to looking forward to the continuing tournament and hoping for it's success, so boxing gets a shot in the arm and more such tournaments can be arranged in different weight classes.
Jermaine Taylor v. Arthur Abraham was a very good fight and pretty evenly matched, though Taylor clearly carried the majority of the rounds by sticking, moving and counterpunching with some effectiveness. Abraham spent the majority of the first half of the fight covering up in his peek-a-boo defense and Taylor kept him off-balance by hammering his guard, preventing him from getting off most of the time. What I've described for the first six rounds is practically indisputable, but if you heard the Steve Farhood-led call of this fight you would have thought it was a far more even match. The announcing team was so pro-Abraham that they seemed not to be watching Taylor at all. Every thrown punch by Abraham was a "hammering blow" whether landed or not. Abraham, stalled by the jabs drilling his guard, was "biding his time" as round after round slipped away. But not according the announcers, seemingly caught up in the emotion of the hugely pro-Abraham crowd, refused to acknowledge Taylor's dramatic edge in punchrate, thrown and landed.
Though Abraham, the repeatedly forgiven (and ignored, if the late round alleged tallies of the announcers are to be believed) "late starter" finally warmed up and began banging by round seven and eight, he merely began to make these rounds close. To my mind, Abraham was down at least three points going into the eleventh, where Taylor stepped up the pace and pulled ahead. Nonetheless, in the tenth, the announcing team started talking about how Abraham could be "coasting" because of his big lead on points and indeed at the end of a few rounds, including the end of the eleventh, he was dancing away for the last twenty or thirty seconds, seemingly assured of a win in the round.
Now I know that Abraham won by KO, nailing Taylor on the button with less than a minute left in a practical carbon copy of what Carl Froch did to Taylor just months ago, but this time, I didn't see Taylor fading. I saw him coming on and taking chances. Perhaps that's exactly what left him open to the straight shot on the chin that put him definitively down, but he was definitely in the fight. I was sorry to see Jermaine dropped. I think, considering the fight was clearly in Abraham's back yard, Taylor would have been hard pressed to win the decision he deserved, but to fight over 35 minutes of a 36 minute fight and get KO'd is a real bummer for a classy, fast fighter who will all too likely contiue to get derided (as the Showtime crew repeatedly did) for fading late...when he didn't. He got caught, but he was going full bore.
As for Abraham, he looked like a guy with heavy hands whose hand speed, when he opens up, is good...but I'm not yet sold. He fights like an undefeated fighter, meaning he hasn't yet learned he can lose (notwithstanding his decision win with a grotesquely shattered jaw against Miranda). He thinks that eventually he will catch up to his man...but as he gets into deep water, he'll find that the best fighters can elude him all fight long. That's what I figured Taylor would do...but his concentration lapsed...or he felt he had to wildly engage to win the last round to have a chance in a biased venue. As among these super middles, I'm not sure who's better...probably Kessler...probably Ward, too...but Abraham, by KO'ing Taylor in the last minute of a fight he, like Froch, was losing (by any fair measure) doesn't convince me to annoint him the best of the best. Happily, notwithstanding their poor announcing squad, Showtime is settling that.
The modified round-robin format was explained in detail on the telecast and, irrespective of the issues with hometown scoring and fan support, it seems very fair. I'm impressed that all of these diverse fighters and their teams could agree and I can only imagine that Showtime played a big role in the final arrangements. Thanks Showtime.
Now to bash showtime for their coverage of another great fight they arranged, and which showed in quick succession from the unconscionably pro-Froch British venue: Carl Froch v. Andre Dirrell. Dirrell is clearly the superior boxer. He was markedly faster on his feet, had distinctly better handspeed and punched with far more accuracy. His greatest asset however leads to his greatest shortcoming: he can get away, so he does get away. Meaning, since he can punch once or twice and dance away, avoiding harm, he does. For those of us who like to watch fighters mix it up, that can be frustrating...but for fans of the much slower, but hometown (for this fight) Carl Froch, this was infuriating.
Showering Dirrell with boos, the hometown fans went wild when Froch advanced and even tried to punch. The net effect was that the referee began to favor Froch, by ignoring his almost constant fouling, and the Showtime announcing crew apparently starting watching only Froch to see if and when he could connect. This fight was more lopsided that the Taylor/Abraham affair, again favoring the American fighter in a hostile venue, and again the announcing team was clearly swept away by the fever of the local fight crowd (as were the judges!). To be fair, Dirrell did at times look like he was afraid to engage, and Froch was relegated to stalker an awful lot...but the very frustration Froch felt exposed him for the dirty fighter he is.
And it was Dirrell who had the only point taken all night. I counted no less than nine obvious distinct rabbit punches by Froch and he only ever got warned. The referee seemed to hold Dirrell to a higher standard because he was so clearly the superior technician. Froch was seemingly allowed to get away with more holding and hitting, rabbit punching and bullying (literally throwing Dirrell to the canvas once, over his hip) because he had so much trouble with Dirrell's style: he just couldn't catch him. So it seemed to me that the ref was willing to forgive Froch his roughhouse tactics because well...that's the way he fights. In that case, taking a point from Dirrell for holding was so manifestly unfair that it smacked of an inside job.
Dirrell was classy in accepting the split decision that went Froch's way, seeming to know that he would live to fight another day. Indeed, take Froch out of a venue where his every aggressive movement yields a roar of approval and the result changes. Plug in a referee that keeps Froch honest, at peril of points, and the result would have been what it should have been: Dirrell by unanimous decision. Dirrell could stand to be more crowd pleasing in his style, something he needs to learn now that he's in with fighters who won't wilt when he dazzles with his speed, accuracy and even power. Failing to appreciate that cost him this fight, though I can't say that I think he had a fair shot. He said that he thought he did, in the post-right interview. I wonder, when he goes back to look at it again, if he'll still think so.
Here's to looking forward to the continuing tournament and hoping for it's success, so boxing gets a shot in the arm and more such tournaments can be arranged in different weight classes.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Klitschko v. Arreola "live"
As I watch the immediate ramp-up to the fight, I appreciate Larry Merchant more every time I see him. I didn't always appreciate him, but once I learned that he was a ground floor investor in Joe Frazier's Cloverleaf investment group, I realized that he has wisdom and experience that I ought not be questioning. Like me, he described that three years ago he was "besotted" with Cristobal Arreola as a legitimately talented American heavyweight. He pled "guilty" to thinking (perhaps hoping) that Arreola has a better than the 5-1 oddsmakers shot that he's being given to beat Klitschko.
That 3 1/2 inch reach advantage is going to be tough for Arreola to overcome, especially given Klitschko's fighting style. Arreola is going to have to swarm Klitschko and endure some heavy shots coming in to have a chance. The lead-in implied that this will be his tack, given that his workrate is unusually high for a heavyweight. We will see. It's interesting to note how heavily pro-Arreola the Staples center Los Angeles is. I can't help but wonder why Klitschko agreed to fight this Mexican-American Heavyweight in such a heavily latino part of the world. He would easily have been able to fill a German stadium and such a crowd would have been equally pro-Klitschko. Interesting dynamic and I'm glad to see it. As boos rain down on the WBC heavyweight champion.... Nice to see a fight worth being excited about...and a heavyweight fight!
ROUND ONE - They come together. Klitschko stands tall and uses the jab. Arreola bobbing. Klitschko sticking the jab and Klitschko moving away. Arreola pursuing and ducking low to try to get under the guard, but not getting in. Arreola is throwing less halfway through. The round clock broken, so Jim Lampley giving us the time. Klitschko is keeping Arreola at arms length...and that is what makes him and his brother so tough. They make a good observation that Klitschko keeps his jabbing left hand low, bringing it up only to jab when necessary. Klitschko's round pretty easily, up 10-9
ROUND TWO - Klitschko sticking the jab and Arreola can't find anything to do. Arreola pins Klitschko's arm and digs a few shots to the beltline. Klitschko keeps Arreola at range and following up with an uppercut or two now and then. Arreolas' guard is high and he's chasing him...but Larry Merchant points out that Arreola not landing...but Klitschko is working harder than he wants to, according to Steward. Klitschko is leaning forward with his hands low almost taunting Arreola and Arreola not biting. Klitschko's round, going up 20-18.
ROUND THREE - Steward's observation is interesting and Klitschko looks a bit winded in his corner. I wonder if there is an opportunity there. Klitschko is punching much more than usual, according to the HBO crew...but now they are saying that Klitschko won't be bothered by the pace. Make up your mind! Klitschko dominating and moving and punching, jabbing and staying away. Klitscko better be in good shape because he is in fact having to move a lot. Arreola advancing but not throwing much. His guard remains high, but he doesn't look winded or hurt and Klitschko tends to look a little clunky at the two minute mark when he stumbles while still moving away. Certainly, Klitschko is moving and punching a lot more and Arreola is not punching. Merchant says that Arreola absorbing punishment will not allow him to outlast Klitschko because he's taking the worst of it. I hear that. 30-27 for Klitschko.
ROUND FOUR - Arreola still advancing and Arreola not opening up yet. Arreola making Klitschko move away and he does clunkily...but he does get away. Perhaps Arreola plans on wearing out Klitschko. Arreola is taking the distance away and it does start to look that way with a minute left...but Klitschko is still picking off the punches. Arreola making a go of it, but moving in with his guard up...but at this point, it's just not enough. Arreola not able to get past the length of Klitschko. A closer round, but still belongs to Klitschko 40-36.
ROUND FIVE - Klitschko doing the same thing. He and his brother are very similar in that they use their natural size to their advantage, though Vitali is more fluid...and even he is clunky and awkward as he moves away. He is not light on his feet...but light enough to get away. Klitschko looks mildly winded, but not seriously. With 40 seconds left, Klitschko's punchrate up and Arreola still waiting to throw and putting on the pressure. Arreola's hands are high and this round looks the same as the others, frankly. Klitschko again 50-45.
ROUND SIX - If Arreola is waiting to the late rounds, that's a gutsy strategy because Klitschko can stun Arreola at any time. So far, he hasn't...but a minute in, the fight isn't any different. Klitschko lands a body shot and Arreola advances, but not really punching. Areola lands and the crowd reacts. Klitschko looks like he felt it, but Klitschko keeps him off and Arreola is paying a high ongoing price for every landed punch. Even every thrown punch costs Arreola. Another round goes to Klitschko 60-54.
ROUND SEVEN - Arreola better pick up the pace even more if he wants to see Klitschko affected because Klitschko seems okay. He looks to be in shape. Lederman points out that Klitschko could be warned for holding and the HBO crew disagrees, but it's a legitimate point. With a minute left, it's the same fight. In the last round, the HBO team pointed out that Klitschko's recent opponents have been noticeably discouraged by this point and Arreola is not...but for the first time I see Arreola going backward. A little flurry at round's end doesn't come close to tipping it for Arreola. Klitschko goes up further, pitching a shutout 70-63.
ROUND EIGHT - Thirty seconds in, the referee does indeed jump in a little early considering that they weren't clinching. Arreola lands and Klitschko grabs. The ref is late in on this Klitschko initiated clinch. Klitschko starting to hold and Arreola closing the gap. Arreola really in it for the first time. Klitschko moving away and hitting Arreola as he moves away with hard shots. A much closer round, but the clean shots definitely belonged to Klitschko, who goes up further 80-72.
ROUND NINE - Klitschko has his back against the ropes and Arreola is digging to the ribs. They are definitely engaging a lot, but Arreola is backing up a bit, then comes forward and not getting the best of it. While Arreola sees his opportunity, Klitchko keeps landing hard shots. If Arreola can overcome this disadvantage, he will have absorbed a lot of punishment to do it. Arreola is a mask of blood and Klitschko still jabbing, throwing his right in afterwards and moving away. With thirty seconds left, it's just the same. Klitschko looks in control and wins another round 90-81.
ROUND TEN - Arreola's corner tells him he has to "take some chances" and I wonder how he has anything left, considering that Klitschko has landed cleanly a LOT. With two minutes left, Klitscko is still sticking and moving. Steward says that Arreola, based on damage taken, can't be thinking well and is in danger of being knocked out. With a minute left, the fight looks the same. Klitschko throwing a jab followed by a right hand and he moves away. Arreola has no solution. A right hand from Klitschko lands solidly and Arreola shakes his head. No way it didn't hurt him. The round goes for Klitschko 100-90. On their stools between rounds, the referee is waving it off...TKO for Klitschko and it's a good stoppage...
Well...that's disappointing, though not surprising. I certainly hoped that Arreola could find some way to solve Vitali, but as I said in the prediction...a solid unafraid technician will beat a puncher (especially if he has a 3 1/2 inch reach advantage). This was a walkover. I wonder if Arreola, who is literally weeping in the ring, is so disappointed because he hoped that Klitschko would fade in the last two rounds, but I certainly didn't perceive any chance of that. Klitschko still looked strong.
Klitschko is classy in the post-fight interview, giving Arreola credit and calling him a future world champion. Arreola sets a record for crying and cursing in his post-fight interview. He admits he couldn't get to Klitschko, but there wasn't anything new learned there. Larry Merchant admits his hope for Arreola was "going out on...not a branch, or a twig...but a leaf." True enough...I was out there with you, Larry...but my money wouldn't have been. The Klitschko brothers do completely rule the heavyweight division. Predictably so.
That 3 1/2 inch reach advantage is going to be tough for Arreola to overcome, especially given Klitschko's fighting style. Arreola is going to have to swarm Klitschko and endure some heavy shots coming in to have a chance. The lead-in implied that this will be his tack, given that his workrate is unusually high for a heavyweight. We will see. It's interesting to note how heavily pro-Arreola the Staples center Los Angeles is. I can't help but wonder why Klitschko agreed to fight this Mexican-American Heavyweight in such a heavily latino part of the world. He would easily have been able to fill a German stadium and such a crowd would have been equally pro-Klitschko. Interesting dynamic and I'm glad to see it. As boos rain down on the WBC heavyweight champion.... Nice to see a fight worth being excited about...and a heavyweight fight!
ROUND ONE - They come together. Klitschko stands tall and uses the jab. Arreola bobbing. Klitschko sticking the jab and Klitschko moving away. Arreola pursuing and ducking low to try to get under the guard, but not getting in. Arreola is throwing less halfway through. The round clock broken, so Jim Lampley giving us the time. Klitschko is keeping Arreola at arms length...and that is what makes him and his brother so tough. They make a good observation that Klitschko keeps his jabbing left hand low, bringing it up only to jab when necessary. Klitschko's round pretty easily, up 10-9
ROUND TWO - Klitschko sticking the jab and Arreola can't find anything to do. Arreola pins Klitschko's arm and digs a few shots to the beltline. Klitschko keeps Arreola at range and following up with an uppercut or two now and then. Arreolas' guard is high and he's chasing him...but Larry Merchant points out that Arreola not landing...but Klitschko is working harder than he wants to, according to Steward. Klitschko is leaning forward with his hands low almost taunting Arreola and Arreola not biting. Klitschko's round, going up 20-18.
ROUND THREE - Steward's observation is interesting and Klitschko looks a bit winded in his corner. I wonder if there is an opportunity there. Klitschko is punching much more than usual, according to the HBO crew...but now they are saying that Klitschko won't be bothered by the pace. Make up your mind! Klitschko dominating and moving and punching, jabbing and staying away. Klitscko better be in good shape because he is in fact having to move a lot. Arreola advancing but not throwing much. His guard remains high, but he doesn't look winded or hurt and Klitschko tends to look a little clunky at the two minute mark when he stumbles while still moving away. Certainly, Klitschko is moving and punching a lot more and Arreola is not punching. Merchant says that Arreola absorbing punishment will not allow him to outlast Klitschko because he's taking the worst of it. I hear that. 30-27 for Klitschko.
ROUND FOUR - Arreola still advancing and Arreola not opening up yet. Arreola making Klitschko move away and he does clunkily...but he does get away. Perhaps Arreola plans on wearing out Klitschko. Arreola is taking the distance away and it does start to look that way with a minute left...but Klitschko is still picking off the punches. Arreola making a go of it, but moving in with his guard up...but at this point, it's just not enough. Arreola not able to get past the length of Klitschko. A closer round, but still belongs to Klitschko 40-36.
ROUND FIVE - Klitschko doing the same thing. He and his brother are very similar in that they use their natural size to their advantage, though Vitali is more fluid...and even he is clunky and awkward as he moves away. He is not light on his feet...but light enough to get away. Klitschko looks mildly winded, but not seriously. With 40 seconds left, Klitschko's punchrate up and Arreola still waiting to throw and putting on the pressure. Arreola's hands are high and this round looks the same as the others, frankly. Klitschko again 50-45.
ROUND SIX - If Arreola is waiting to the late rounds, that's a gutsy strategy because Klitschko can stun Arreola at any time. So far, he hasn't...but a minute in, the fight isn't any different. Klitschko lands a body shot and Arreola advances, but not really punching. Areola lands and the crowd reacts. Klitschko looks like he felt it, but Klitschko keeps him off and Arreola is paying a high ongoing price for every landed punch. Even every thrown punch costs Arreola. Another round goes to Klitschko 60-54.
ROUND SEVEN - Arreola better pick up the pace even more if he wants to see Klitschko affected because Klitschko seems okay. He looks to be in shape. Lederman points out that Klitschko could be warned for holding and the HBO crew disagrees, but it's a legitimate point. With a minute left, it's the same fight. In the last round, the HBO team pointed out that Klitschko's recent opponents have been noticeably discouraged by this point and Arreola is not...but for the first time I see Arreola going backward. A little flurry at round's end doesn't come close to tipping it for Arreola. Klitschko goes up further, pitching a shutout 70-63.
ROUND EIGHT - Thirty seconds in, the referee does indeed jump in a little early considering that they weren't clinching. Arreola lands and Klitschko grabs. The ref is late in on this Klitschko initiated clinch. Klitschko starting to hold and Arreola closing the gap. Arreola really in it for the first time. Klitschko moving away and hitting Arreola as he moves away with hard shots. A much closer round, but the clean shots definitely belonged to Klitschko, who goes up further 80-72.
ROUND NINE - Klitschko has his back against the ropes and Arreola is digging to the ribs. They are definitely engaging a lot, but Arreola is backing up a bit, then comes forward and not getting the best of it. While Arreola sees his opportunity, Klitchko keeps landing hard shots. If Arreola can overcome this disadvantage, he will have absorbed a lot of punishment to do it. Arreola is a mask of blood and Klitschko still jabbing, throwing his right in afterwards and moving away. With thirty seconds left, it's just the same. Klitschko looks in control and wins another round 90-81.
ROUND TEN - Arreola's corner tells him he has to "take some chances" and I wonder how he has anything left, considering that Klitschko has landed cleanly a LOT. With two minutes left, Klitscko is still sticking and moving. Steward says that Arreola, based on damage taken, can't be thinking well and is in danger of being knocked out. With a minute left, the fight looks the same. Klitschko throwing a jab followed by a right hand and he moves away. Arreola has no solution. A right hand from Klitschko lands solidly and Arreola shakes his head. No way it didn't hurt him. The round goes for Klitschko 100-90. On their stools between rounds, the referee is waving it off...TKO for Klitschko and it's a good stoppage...
Well...that's disappointing, though not surprising. I certainly hoped that Arreola could find some way to solve Vitali, but as I said in the prediction...a solid unafraid technician will beat a puncher (especially if he has a 3 1/2 inch reach advantage). This was a walkover. I wonder if Arreola, who is literally weeping in the ring, is so disappointed because he hoped that Klitschko would fade in the last two rounds, but I certainly didn't perceive any chance of that. Klitschko still looked strong.
Klitschko is classy in the post-fight interview, giving Arreola credit and calling him a future world champion. Arreola sets a record for crying and cursing in his post-fight interview. He admits he couldn't get to Klitschko, but there wasn't anything new learned there. Larry Merchant admits his hope for Arreola was "going out on...not a branch, or a twig...but a leaf." True enough...I was out there with you, Larry...but my money wouldn't have been. The Klitschko brothers do completely rule the heavyweight division. Predictably so.
Prediction: Klitschko v. Arreola
My recent record at predicting big fights hasn't been great, but since I'm not certain this qualifies as a big fight (except perhaps in the eyes of realfightfans...and I've been chomping at the bit for this one...a potentially action packed elite heavyweight matchup), I'd say I've got a decent shot.
Very recently, I've been carried away by the odds-defying ascent of Manny Pacquiao through the weight classes. I've picked an upset or two to apparently attempt to make some sense of the Pacquiao phenomenon. There's no making sense of it and picking against what I know to be true is folly. A good boxer (who doesn't have problems with intimidation) will beat a puncher or a brawler every time. He will make the lesser technician pay for every foray into the danger zone, keep out of trouble and be satisfied to win a decision handily on points (if the TKO doesn't come). The only thing that will change the equation is if the puncher is markedly quicker, as was the case with Pacman against DelaHoya. As a pertinent aside...on the strength of this simple analysis, the outcome of Mayweather v. Pacquiao becomes clear...which means that it will probably happen. This is because Mayweather only takes fights he will win...and that's why we won't see him in against Sugar Shane for another year or two, if ever. But I digress...
To apply this lesson to Klitschko/Arreola begs the question which between them is the superior technician. Well, I would lean toward Klitschko, though Arreola is a surprisingly good boxer. Arreola's problem is he lacks defense and leads with his face. He slips and moves a bit, has great power, punches in combination and is definitely a finisher...but he lacks defense and he leads with his face. Vitali is not the supersafe technician his brother has become, though it's kind of hard to judge what kind of fighter he is because he's fought so infrequently of late. He is technically sound and willing to mix it up. I perceive that he punches a bit harder than his brother (who doesn't exactly dole out love taps) and takes more chances than the bigger younger Klitschko, but he's a more natural boxer than Wladimir, more naturally ring savvy and more able to adapt to adversity.
Given the above, it seems possible that Vitali will take some chances and leave himself open for Arreola. That will give Arreola his puncher's chance. Can Arreola apply his boxing skills to make his own chance, if Vitali doesn't give it to him? Unlikely. The odds dictate that Vitali will keep Arreola at arms length, punish him when he attacks and wear him down. Arreola is a tough guy, proven resilient after knockdowns and able to adapt to some extent. That said, I doubt he has a solution for the Klitschko jab. I believe Klitschko will stay behind the jab, realizing that Arreola is indeed a threat and that Arreola will absorb a lot of leather. With Arreola's aggressiveness and desire, he will make a serious run at Klitschko as early as round two...but Klitschko will fend him off.
My heart says Arreola and I will be rooting for the USA fighter, but my head says Klitschko by TKO in round 8.
Very recently, I've been carried away by the odds-defying ascent of Manny Pacquiao through the weight classes. I've picked an upset or two to apparently attempt to make some sense of the Pacquiao phenomenon. There's no making sense of it and picking against what I know to be true is folly. A good boxer (who doesn't have problems with intimidation) will beat a puncher or a brawler every time. He will make the lesser technician pay for every foray into the danger zone, keep out of trouble and be satisfied to win a decision handily on points (if the TKO doesn't come). The only thing that will change the equation is if the puncher is markedly quicker, as was the case with Pacman against DelaHoya. As a pertinent aside...on the strength of this simple analysis, the outcome of Mayweather v. Pacquiao becomes clear...which means that it will probably happen. This is because Mayweather only takes fights he will win...and that's why we won't see him in against Sugar Shane for another year or two, if ever. But I digress...
To apply this lesson to Klitschko/Arreola begs the question which between them is the superior technician. Well, I would lean toward Klitschko, though Arreola is a surprisingly good boxer. Arreola's problem is he lacks defense and leads with his face. He slips and moves a bit, has great power, punches in combination and is definitely a finisher...but he lacks defense and he leads with his face. Vitali is not the supersafe technician his brother has become, though it's kind of hard to judge what kind of fighter he is because he's fought so infrequently of late. He is technically sound and willing to mix it up. I perceive that he punches a bit harder than his brother (who doesn't exactly dole out love taps) and takes more chances than the bigger younger Klitschko, but he's a more natural boxer than Wladimir, more naturally ring savvy and more able to adapt to adversity.
Given the above, it seems possible that Vitali will take some chances and leave himself open for Arreola. That will give Arreola his puncher's chance. Can Arreola apply his boxing skills to make his own chance, if Vitali doesn't give it to him? Unlikely. The odds dictate that Vitali will keep Arreola at arms length, punish him when he attacks and wear him down. Arreola is a tough guy, proven resilient after knockdowns and able to adapt to some extent. That said, I doubt he has a solution for the Klitschko jab. I believe Klitschko will stay behind the jab, realizing that Arreola is indeed a threat and that Arreola will absorb a lot of leather. With Arreola's aggressiveness and desire, he will make a serious run at Klitschko as early as round two...but Klitschko will fend him off.
My heart says Arreola and I will be rooting for the USA fighter, but my head says Klitschko by TKO in round 8.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Mayweather v. Marquez "live"
As I watch the final hype of the PPV and while watching the undercard, I was questioning the wisdom of my prediction of Marquez...so I went to see their measurements and how they've come up. I'm more convinced than ever that Marquez was a deeply unwise choice for Mayweather in his return. Mayweather is the bigger fighter, but not by as much as I thought. Mayweather stands 5'8" and Marquez is 5'7". Mayweather's reach is 72", while Marquez' is 67". Most importantly, for the purposes of my analysis...Mayweather started his career at 130, while Marquez started at 125.
This last statistic is telling as far as I'm concerned. Mayweather has moved up over and over, fighting as high as 154, while Marquez remained at true lightweight, never fighting higher than 135 his entire career. I seem to recall a fighter who fought the vast majority of his career at a lower weight, then jumped up dramatically and successfully past that weight. His name was Bernard Hopkins. It looks an awful lot like Marquez is not at all likely to be blown up at the 148 he is walking in at. If he brought himself up right, then he is likely to be very comfortable and feeling strong.
As the fighters do their ring walk, I also want to comment further briefly on Mayweather's refusal to make weight. That isn't a misprint. He didn't apparently fail to make the contracted weight. He refused to make 144. His camp contacted Marquez' camp sometime early in the final week to tell them he might not make weight. That tells me he didn't intend to and was fearful that losing the last two pounds would sap him. He forced Marquez to decide whether to forfeit the opportunity to make millions over two pounds. He then paid $300K per pound to Marquez. That speaks to fear and hubris...which is a dangerous combination....for Mayweather. I also looked back over Mayweather's opponents over the years. In their prime, there is no one on that list that matches Marquez' skills. With all of that said, Marquez has been known to hit the canvas. He can be rocked...but he hangs in, adjusts and is outstanding. I'll stick with my upset prediction of Marquez.
ROUND ONE - Out they come at the bell and it's on. Both fighters posing. Mayweather moving forward a bit, but both very much trying to measure the other. If it stays this way, Mayweather wins. HBO's Emmanuel Steward claims that Mayweather's speed is unmatched by Marquez. We'll see. With a minute left, it's a bore with a light edge to Mayweather. Marquez scores and it gets closer to even. Marquez flurries with ten seconds left, but I give it narrowly to Mayweather 10-9.
ROUND TWO - If Mayweather keeps Marquez at range, he will win easily. I don't see that happening and indeed Marquez scores a combination to start the round, but only then does Mayweather answer. Marquez lands a straight right. Knockdown for Mayweather! Kellerman says Marquez is in "bad trouble". He looks okay from here...but hard to say. I almost missed the punch so it must have been a short hook. Marquez is bouncing back well. And it would seem that Marquez' habit of digging himself a hole is being perpetuated here. REPLAY shows it was a short left hook that dropped Marquez.
ROUND THREE - Mayweather up 20-17 after loggin a 10 - 8 round with the knockdown. The HBO team says Marquez is noticeably slower. It doesn't look that way from here...but perhaps it's different live? Lampley is spewing love for Mayweather and Kellerman takes up that flag and runs with it, calling the counterpunching safe-fighting Mayweather "pretty entertaining so far." Only insofar as there was a knockdown. Still...Mayweather is stymying everything that Marquez is putting out there. Another boring round...for Mayweather, who goes up 30-26.
ROUND FOUR - Marquez opens the round landing a right over the top and Mayweather shakes his head. Now the HBO team says Marquez looked discouraged in his corner. We can't evaluate what they don't show us...Marquez lands hard with a right hand over the top. Mayweather smiles, wich acknowledges that it landed. Mayweather landing jabs pretty consistently. I'm giving that round to Marquez because he landed the bigger punches and was more aggressive, making it 39-36 for Mayweather.
ROUND FIVE - HBO's Harold Lederman and I diverge in our scores, which I think is good. Marquez trying to make something happen...which means he is the more aggressive fighter and it seems like Mayweather is a bit more cautious. Steward says that Marquez will be worn down by the speed. Marquez doesn't look it at the halfway point. It's Marquez' round so far and Lampley intoning that Marquez needs to be heavier, even as he is winning the round. As usual, Lampley is calling a fight based on what happened in the previous round. Marquez still winning at rounds' close. Marquez' round: 48-46 Mayweather.
ROUND SIX - "attack but don't be frontal" is Marquez' trainer's instruction...and that makes sense, though I imagine it suffers in translation. Mayweather opens seeming to try to go to the body and Marquez counters very effectively. At the forty five second mark, Marquez still the better fighter and Steward uses it as an opportunity to say Mayweather is dominating? Oh...Marquez rocked and the round turns to Mayweather. Marquez doesn't look as hurt as I would expect. Kellerman says Mayweather is "having his way" and I don't see that. Mayweather is doing better in this round, though. Pins Marquez in the corner and takes shots, always with his leaning back and potshotting. Mayweather extends to 58-55.
ROUND SEVEN - Lampley says it's a "complete domination" and I simply don't agree. The HBO team feeds on each other and they tend to sway badly at times. Lederman has every round for Mayweather. Lampley says no round has been close! Good grief. If it's true that the ref went to Marquez' corner to ask if he wants to continue then perhaps the fight looks a lot different live than on TV. Or my perception is off based on my prediction. Marquez pins Mayweather in the corner and Marquez doesn't attack after a good flurry. Kellerman describing it as an "absolute shutout", but that's ridiculous. This was a Mayweather round though...68 - 64.
ROUND EIGHT - Mayweather is jabbing and hitting Marquez relatvely easily, but the punches are not that special. Neither fighter is doing much at the halfway point. Typically, Mayweather is not pressing his advantage. This round edging to Mayweather because Marquez isn't landing much and isn't active enough. Marquez brings some leather in the last 20 seconds of the round, mostly ineffectively...and then Mayweather invites him in repeatedly, taking shots all around his head and body...and losing the round on my card. 77 - 74.
ROUND NINE - The HBO team is spending the fight describing all the reasons that Marquez is completely out of the fight and it's strange. A minute in, it's an even round. Mayweather landing more effectively in the second minute. It's just a jabbing contest and Mayweather must win that contest. Mayweather lands a big combo at the thirty second mark and Marquez tries to answer, but Mayweather seems to be controlling the action. He's advancing. Lampley says "all the steam is out of Marquez' punches...if it was ever there...", which is a typical overstatement. But it's Mayweather's round: 87 - 83.
ROUND TEN - Steward seems to think that Marquez is shot and he'll be lucky to survive. I admit that Mayweather looks stronger and Marquez is right there for the jab...but I don't see Marquez fading. He's trying. Steward says "he's going to try to get him out of there this round"...that seems another stretch. Marquez not landing and Mayweather boringly winning. Some clean punches landing for Mayweather. The fight is definitely tilting heavily for Mayweather. Mayweather dances in the corner at the round's conclusion. 97-92 for Mayweather.
ROUND ELEVEN - Marquez doing better this rounds first minute as he stops moving backward, but Mayweather is still getting the better of it. He boringly moves forward and is hitting Marquez more steadily and clearly. Mayweather lands cleanly and with twenty seconds left and Kellerman says he's "clearly pressing for the knockout", though Marquez doesn't look hurt. If that's pressing for the KO, then Mayweather is no finisher. Also, the sky is blue. Mayweather's round: 107-101.
ROUND TWELVE - Some of these rounds don't need much explication because they look alike. Mayweather stutterstepping forward leaning back and jabbing and Marquez is fighting a fight of attrition, showing effort, but not able to land. Marquez bounces punches off the arms and Mayweather jabs and leans away. Boring...but effective. At the halfway mark, Mayweather holds Marquez' head down coming out of a clinch and the HBO team says he's pressing for the KO again...but Marquez doesn't look close to me...but pretty outmatched. Mayweather doesn't look marked and Marquez looks bloodied. With twenty seconds left, Mayweather finally throwing with bad intentions? what a fighter...who dances the fight to a close. His round again, making my final tally 117 - 110.
WRAP UP: Okay, so maybe Pacman has made me think anything is possible. Now I want to see Pacquiao against Mayweather all the more. This makes me wonder if Mayweather might just have his way with Pacman! Wow...what a reversal from what I was thinking coming in. I bought the hype. There's no question that I was completely wrong in my prediction, so I am not backing off of it but I tend to think that several factors played into my misjudging the matchup (apart from the Pacman effect): there hasn't been a big fight in months...and I so wanted this fight to live up that I invented drama; I watched Mayweather/Marquez 24/7 and that has nver served me well; I forgot my reaction at the time of the announcement of the fight (proof positive for me that I really wanted this fight to be good) - that it would be a bore. A bore it was...two counterpunchers measuring each other for twelve rounds. Marquez put up a good effort and was unquestionably outmatched.
Mayweather handpicked his opponent well. But that denegrates Mayweather's performance unfairly because everything I said about Marquez coming in remains true. He is a hall of fame caliber opponent, heretofor ranked #2 P4P in the world. The final scores of the judges: 118-109; 120 -107; 119-108. Now...to the denigating of the performance. How much did those two pounds matter? Marquez made a special effort to talk to the HBO team post-fight, apparently to say that: 1) he wished he'd fought two or three fights at this weight and if he had, he would have acquitted himself better; 2) the weight made all the difference. Now...to be fair...the HBO team seemed convinced at ringside that Mayweather was so much faster, notwithstanding the weight difference, that Marquez had no chance. Interesting. I wonder if those last two pounds would have sapped Mayweather enough down the stretch to make a difference? We'll never know. If the Pacman/Money fight is ever made, you can bet that Pacquiao won't allow Mayweather to blow off the contract weight though....
It was amusing to see Mosley and Hopkins call Mayweather out and Mayweather duck the questions about his refusal to come in at the contracted weight. He refuses to fight or otherwise engage on any terms but his own...but in a way, you have to respect that. And in a more significant way, as a realfightfan...you don't. As a further pertinent aside, to see Max Kellerman kick it back to Jim Lampley rather than allow Mayweather to hold forth unbridled (and then Kellerman's almost immediate explication of that decision) is to ironically see Max's ego be tested and found wanting (exactly what he essentially accused Mayweather of). Once Mayweather said Max "talks too much" and tried to take his mic, Kellerman kicked it back to Lampley...silencing an affronted Mayweather and depriving the viewers of listening to this talented blowhard answer the challenges that had just been posed by Mosley and Hopkins (for Golden Boy). Perhaps he was going to continue to filibuster without addressing anything the fans want to hear...but I would have preferred to hear it and I doubt I'm alone. A pretty glaring mistake by Kellerman, whose assertion that he is baffled by Mayweather's persecution complex relative to him because he maintains, among the media at-large, a more "friendly" attitude toward Mayweather because he "admires his craft" is after-the-fact damage control.
They say Bob Arum, who promotes Pacquiao, has said that Mayweather v. Pacquiao will never take place. If that's true...then that's a shame. Maybe that plays right into Mayweather's hands, who apparently never takes a fight he can't win. Or does he simply never lose? If he wants to erase all lingering doubts, he ought to bend over backwards to make that fight. Especially since he just dominated the guy who gave Pacman fits in two fights.
This last statistic is telling as far as I'm concerned. Mayweather has moved up over and over, fighting as high as 154, while Marquez remained at true lightweight, never fighting higher than 135 his entire career. I seem to recall a fighter who fought the vast majority of his career at a lower weight, then jumped up dramatically and successfully past that weight. His name was Bernard Hopkins. It looks an awful lot like Marquez is not at all likely to be blown up at the 148 he is walking in at. If he brought himself up right, then he is likely to be very comfortable and feeling strong.
As the fighters do their ring walk, I also want to comment further briefly on Mayweather's refusal to make weight. That isn't a misprint. He didn't apparently fail to make the contracted weight. He refused to make 144. His camp contacted Marquez' camp sometime early in the final week to tell them he might not make weight. That tells me he didn't intend to and was fearful that losing the last two pounds would sap him. He forced Marquez to decide whether to forfeit the opportunity to make millions over two pounds. He then paid $300K per pound to Marquez. That speaks to fear and hubris...which is a dangerous combination....for Mayweather. I also looked back over Mayweather's opponents over the years. In their prime, there is no one on that list that matches Marquez' skills. With all of that said, Marquez has been known to hit the canvas. He can be rocked...but he hangs in, adjusts and is outstanding. I'll stick with my upset prediction of Marquez.
ROUND ONE - Out they come at the bell and it's on. Both fighters posing. Mayweather moving forward a bit, but both very much trying to measure the other. If it stays this way, Mayweather wins. HBO's Emmanuel Steward claims that Mayweather's speed is unmatched by Marquez. We'll see. With a minute left, it's a bore with a light edge to Mayweather. Marquez scores and it gets closer to even. Marquez flurries with ten seconds left, but I give it narrowly to Mayweather 10-9.
ROUND TWO - If Mayweather keeps Marquez at range, he will win easily. I don't see that happening and indeed Marquez scores a combination to start the round, but only then does Mayweather answer. Marquez lands a straight right. Knockdown for Mayweather! Kellerman says Marquez is in "bad trouble". He looks okay from here...but hard to say. I almost missed the punch so it must have been a short hook. Marquez is bouncing back well. And it would seem that Marquez' habit of digging himself a hole is being perpetuated here. REPLAY shows it was a short left hook that dropped Marquez.
ROUND THREE - Mayweather up 20-17 after loggin a 10 - 8 round with the knockdown. The HBO team says Marquez is noticeably slower. It doesn't look that way from here...but perhaps it's different live? Lampley is spewing love for Mayweather and Kellerman takes up that flag and runs with it, calling the counterpunching safe-fighting Mayweather "pretty entertaining so far." Only insofar as there was a knockdown. Still...Mayweather is stymying everything that Marquez is putting out there. Another boring round...for Mayweather, who goes up 30-26.
ROUND FOUR - Marquez opens the round landing a right over the top and Mayweather shakes his head. Now the HBO team says Marquez looked discouraged in his corner. We can't evaluate what they don't show us...Marquez lands hard with a right hand over the top. Mayweather smiles, wich acknowledges that it landed. Mayweather landing jabs pretty consistently. I'm giving that round to Marquez because he landed the bigger punches and was more aggressive, making it 39-36 for Mayweather.
ROUND FIVE - HBO's Harold Lederman and I diverge in our scores, which I think is good. Marquez trying to make something happen...which means he is the more aggressive fighter and it seems like Mayweather is a bit more cautious. Steward says that Marquez will be worn down by the speed. Marquez doesn't look it at the halfway point. It's Marquez' round so far and Lampley intoning that Marquez needs to be heavier, even as he is winning the round. As usual, Lampley is calling a fight based on what happened in the previous round. Marquez still winning at rounds' close. Marquez' round: 48-46 Mayweather.
ROUND SIX - "attack but don't be frontal" is Marquez' trainer's instruction...and that makes sense, though I imagine it suffers in translation. Mayweather opens seeming to try to go to the body and Marquez counters very effectively. At the forty five second mark, Marquez still the better fighter and Steward uses it as an opportunity to say Mayweather is dominating? Oh...Marquez rocked and the round turns to Mayweather. Marquez doesn't look as hurt as I would expect. Kellerman says Mayweather is "having his way" and I don't see that. Mayweather is doing better in this round, though. Pins Marquez in the corner and takes shots, always with his leaning back and potshotting. Mayweather extends to 58-55.
ROUND SEVEN - Lampley says it's a "complete domination" and I simply don't agree. The HBO team feeds on each other and they tend to sway badly at times. Lederman has every round for Mayweather. Lampley says no round has been close! Good grief. If it's true that the ref went to Marquez' corner to ask if he wants to continue then perhaps the fight looks a lot different live than on TV. Or my perception is off based on my prediction. Marquez pins Mayweather in the corner and Marquez doesn't attack after a good flurry. Kellerman describing it as an "absolute shutout", but that's ridiculous. This was a Mayweather round though...68 - 64.
ROUND EIGHT - Mayweather is jabbing and hitting Marquez relatvely easily, but the punches are not that special. Neither fighter is doing much at the halfway point. Typically, Mayweather is not pressing his advantage. This round edging to Mayweather because Marquez isn't landing much and isn't active enough. Marquez brings some leather in the last 20 seconds of the round, mostly ineffectively...and then Mayweather invites him in repeatedly, taking shots all around his head and body...and losing the round on my card. 77 - 74.
ROUND NINE - The HBO team is spending the fight describing all the reasons that Marquez is completely out of the fight and it's strange. A minute in, it's an even round. Mayweather landing more effectively in the second minute. It's just a jabbing contest and Mayweather must win that contest. Mayweather lands a big combo at the thirty second mark and Marquez tries to answer, but Mayweather seems to be controlling the action. He's advancing. Lampley says "all the steam is out of Marquez' punches...if it was ever there...", which is a typical overstatement. But it's Mayweather's round: 87 - 83.
ROUND TEN - Steward seems to think that Marquez is shot and he'll be lucky to survive. I admit that Mayweather looks stronger and Marquez is right there for the jab...but I don't see Marquez fading. He's trying. Steward says "he's going to try to get him out of there this round"...that seems another stretch. Marquez not landing and Mayweather boringly winning. Some clean punches landing for Mayweather. The fight is definitely tilting heavily for Mayweather. Mayweather dances in the corner at the round's conclusion. 97-92 for Mayweather.
ROUND ELEVEN - Marquez doing better this rounds first minute as he stops moving backward, but Mayweather is still getting the better of it. He boringly moves forward and is hitting Marquez more steadily and clearly. Mayweather lands cleanly and with twenty seconds left and Kellerman says he's "clearly pressing for the knockout", though Marquez doesn't look hurt. If that's pressing for the KO, then Mayweather is no finisher. Also, the sky is blue. Mayweather's round: 107-101.
ROUND TWELVE - Some of these rounds don't need much explication because they look alike. Mayweather stutterstepping forward leaning back and jabbing and Marquez is fighting a fight of attrition, showing effort, but not able to land. Marquez bounces punches off the arms and Mayweather jabs and leans away. Boring...but effective. At the halfway mark, Mayweather holds Marquez' head down coming out of a clinch and the HBO team says he's pressing for the KO again...but Marquez doesn't look close to me...but pretty outmatched. Mayweather doesn't look marked and Marquez looks bloodied. With twenty seconds left, Mayweather finally throwing with bad intentions? what a fighter...who dances the fight to a close. His round again, making my final tally 117 - 110.
WRAP UP: Okay, so maybe Pacman has made me think anything is possible. Now I want to see Pacquiao against Mayweather all the more. This makes me wonder if Mayweather might just have his way with Pacman! Wow...what a reversal from what I was thinking coming in. I bought the hype. There's no question that I was completely wrong in my prediction, so I am not backing off of it but I tend to think that several factors played into my misjudging the matchup (apart from the Pacman effect): there hasn't been a big fight in months...and I so wanted this fight to live up that I invented drama; I watched Mayweather/Marquez 24/7 and that has nver served me well; I forgot my reaction at the time of the announcement of the fight (proof positive for me that I really wanted this fight to be good) - that it would be a bore. A bore it was...two counterpunchers measuring each other for twelve rounds. Marquez put up a good effort and was unquestionably outmatched.
Mayweather handpicked his opponent well. But that denegrates Mayweather's performance unfairly because everything I said about Marquez coming in remains true. He is a hall of fame caliber opponent, heretofor ranked #2 P4P in the world. The final scores of the judges: 118-109; 120 -107; 119-108. Now...to the denigating of the performance. How much did those two pounds matter? Marquez made a special effort to talk to the HBO team post-fight, apparently to say that: 1) he wished he'd fought two or three fights at this weight and if he had, he would have acquitted himself better; 2) the weight made all the difference. Now...to be fair...the HBO team seemed convinced at ringside that Mayweather was so much faster, notwithstanding the weight difference, that Marquez had no chance. Interesting. I wonder if those last two pounds would have sapped Mayweather enough down the stretch to make a difference? We'll never know. If the Pacman/Money fight is ever made, you can bet that Pacquiao won't allow Mayweather to blow off the contract weight though....
It was amusing to see Mosley and Hopkins call Mayweather out and Mayweather duck the questions about his refusal to come in at the contracted weight. He refuses to fight or otherwise engage on any terms but his own...but in a way, you have to respect that. And in a more significant way, as a realfightfan...you don't. As a further pertinent aside, to see Max Kellerman kick it back to Jim Lampley rather than allow Mayweather to hold forth unbridled (and then Kellerman's almost immediate explication of that decision) is to ironically see Max's ego be tested and found wanting (exactly what he essentially accused Mayweather of). Once Mayweather said Max "talks too much" and tried to take his mic, Kellerman kicked it back to Lampley...silencing an affronted Mayweather and depriving the viewers of listening to this talented blowhard answer the challenges that had just been posed by Mosley and Hopkins (for Golden Boy). Perhaps he was going to continue to filibuster without addressing anything the fans want to hear...but I would have preferred to hear it and I doubt I'm alone. A pretty glaring mistake by Kellerman, whose assertion that he is baffled by Mayweather's persecution complex relative to him because he maintains, among the media at-large, a more "friendly" attitude toward Mayweather because he "admires his craft" is after-the-fact damage control.
They say Bob Arum, who promotes Pacquiao, has said that Mayweather v. Pacquiao will never take place. If that's true...then that's a shame. Maybe that plays right into Mayweather's hands, who apparently never takes a fight he can't win. Or does he simply never lose? If he wants to erase all lingering doubts, he ought to bend over backwards to make that fight. Especially since he just dominated the guy who gave Pacman fits in two fights.
Marquez v. Mayweather: a P4P prediction
Here's the real question for this fight: why would Mayweather choose Juan Manuel Marquez for his inevitable coming-out-of-fake-retirement fight? He claims he doesn't watch tapes of fighters he faces, but there's no way he hasn't watched Marquez fight Pacquiao twice. No way. So...what is he seeing that we're not seeing? I say that because not only is Marquez no walk in the park, he's one of the most experienced elite level fighters of his generation. He's been in as deep as anyone possibly can be and to say he's acquitted himself admirably is distinct understatement.
Let's look at the short list that leaps to mind: starting with Pacquiao - I recall him, to my mind, unquestionably outboxing Pacquiao for the remainder of the fight...after having been dropped three times in the first round - he adjusted so effectively even after being dropped over and over that he deserved the win, but Pacquiao eked out the draw. As for the other fight with Pacquiao, I thought it legitimately went to Pacquiao but it was close and it went to the cards (please keep in mind that neither Oscar, nor Hatton made it close to going the distance with Pacquiao...something Marquez has done twice); Casamayor - the slippery undefeated veteran Cuban had never been knocked down, let alone knocked out when Marquez dispatched him, taking his title and relegating him to where he belongs...on the scrap heap of exposed champions who would rather dance, slip, foul and hold than engage...something no one else had ever done; Juan Diaz - Marquez KO'd another fighter who'd never been dropped in Diaz, a fighter who Nate Campbell had fought the fight of his life to beat and take Diaz' zero away.
So...why would Mayweather fight a guy this good? After taking off two years? Well, the answer may lie in the size difference. Mayweather proves he hits pretty hard against the likes of bigger fighters like Oscar. He'll have a reach advantage. He's proved he can solve tough styles like Hatton's (though since Hatton was dispatched so summarily by Pacquiao, the luster is off that accomplishment too).
The answer may lie in the styles. Marquez is well known as a counterpuncher...and counterpunching is Mayweather's specialty. Perhaps he's convinced he will be able to beat Marquez to the punch and that Marquez will lay back waiting for opportunities that Mayweather thinks he'll never be given.
Perhaps it's Marquez' age. At 36, he's aging for a fighter who relies on the quickness of his counterpunching...and perhaps the younger Mayweather is convinced he will be able to outmuscle and outspeed Marquez.
Here's the counterargument that says that Marquez pulls off the upset:
-it starts with the proposition that Mayweather barely squeaked by Oscar - I called that fight for Oscar on effective aggressiveness and ring generalship and though a re-viewing had me questioning my own call as biased, it was that close - so, although Marquez never fought Oscar, Pacquiao's alarming destruction of Oscar based on handspeed and positioning where Marquez has twice given Pacquiao almost more than he could handle...the edge goes to Marquez;
-the next point is subsumed above - Pacquiao proved that, relatively speaking at these weights, size may simply not matter as much as we all think it should. So...is Marquez as fast and as good as Pacquiao? As Golden Boy's Richard Schaeffer pointed out to Marquez himself, over two fights the official scorecards of 24 rounds favored Pacquiao by one point. One point. The answer must be yes...and while we can in no way take away Pacquiao's three knockdowns that started the draw between the two...absent those points, Marquez weighs out with more points...and importantly, surely actually has more rounds on paper than Pacquiao because of the effect of that one lopsided round. Again...advantage Marquez;
-Marquez has been in deep and proven he will and skills over and over. If there is excess mileage as a result, he's not shown it. Meanwhile, Mayweather looked so relieved to have taken the decision from Oscar in the moments after that win that it was easy to intuit that he was by no means sure he'd won. It took him nine rounds to KO Hatton and while, at the time, taking Hatton's zero looked like a career-defining moment...Pacquiao's humiliation of the popular Brit seemed to put it in perspective, particularly as compared to Pac's dealings with Mr. Marquez. Advantage: Marquez.
-finally...ring rust. While there's little question that Mayweather appears in top shape, that he's bloodying his sparring partners on 24/7 and that he's a world-class boxing technician with an elite level ring IQ...he hasn't been in as deep nearly as often as Marquez...and hasn't in truth been in particularly deep in years. An aging Oscar? A since-exposed Hatton? These were megafights for certain, but they were arguably not against super-elite fighters. OK, so his fight against Oscar might have been Oscar's last great showing...but recall that Oscar had already been taken the distance by an overmatched Stevie Forbes, KO'd by Hopkins and beaten by in his prep fight for Hopkins...only to walk with a uber-questionable decision. By then, Oscar was a millionaire so many times over that he was fighting to find the motivation that clearly eludes him today. Meanwhile, Marquez has been toiling against the best fighters in the world regulary in the last few years...and arguably winning winning every time.
The prediction? My brain says Mayweather wouldn't take this fight if he wasn't certain he could decision Marquez. However...I think he is underestimating the man. They've weighed in at 146 and 142 respectively and this, though the fight was originally contracted for 144. That says to me that Mayweather didn't feel he could comfortably make weight...so he changed the rules in the run up to the fight, upping the contract weight to 147 rather than risk being depleted by the two pound difference. That is the action of a fighter who is concerned about the last two pounds, is strong-arming his opponent just because he can and is taking his opponent lightly. He wants those last two pounds and is coming into the ring thinking those two pounds matter. Pacquiao proved they don't...and I think Marquez will prove they don't. Mayweather, in my judgment, plans on coming in and being aggressive to back Marquez off, then cruising to a decision victory. He underestimates Marquez' skills, speed, power and commitment. Marquez in a four point decision.
Let's look at the short list that leaps to mind: starting with Pacquiao - I recall him, to my mind, unquestionably outboxing Pacquiao for the remainder of the fight...after having been dropped three times in the first round - he adjusted so effectively even after being dropped over and over that he deserved the win, but Pacquiao eked out the draw. As for the other fight with Pacquiao, I thought it legitimately went to Pacquiao but it was close and it went to the cards (please keep in mind that neither Oscar, nor Hatton made it close to going the distance with Pacquiao...something Marquez has done twice); Casamayor - the slippery undefeated veteran Cuban had never been knocked down, let alone knocked out when Marquez dispatched him, taking his title and relegating him to where he belongs...on the scrap heap of exposed champions who would rather dance, slip, foul and hold than engage...something no one else had ever done; Juan Diaz - Marquez KO'd another fighter who'd never been dropped in Diaz, a fighter who Nate Campbell had fought the fight of his life to beat and take Diaz' zero away.
So...why would Mayweather fight a guy this good? After taking off two years? Well, the answer may lie in the size difference. Mayweather proves he hits pretty hard against the likes of bigger fighters like Oscar. He'll have a reach advantage. He's proved he can solve tough styles like Hatton's (though since Hatton was dispatched so summarily by Pacquiao, the luster is off that accomplishment too).
The answer may lie in the styles. Marquez is well known as a counterpuncher...and counterpunching is Mayweather's specialty. Perhaps he's convinced he will be able to beat Marquez to the punch and that Marquez will lay back waiting for opportunities that Mayweather thinks he'll never be given.
Perhaps it's Marquez' age. At 36, he's aging for a fighter who relies on the quickness of his counterpunching...and perhaps the younger Mayweather is convinced he will be able to outmuscle and outspeed Marquez.
Here's the counterargument that says that Marquez pulls off the upset:
-it starts with the proposition that Mayweather barely squeaked by Oscar - I called that fight for Oscar on effective aggressiveness and ring generalship and though a re-viewing had me questioning my own call as biased, it was that close - so, although Marquez never fought Oscar, Pacquiao's alarming destruction of Oscar based on handspeed and positioning where Marquez has twice given Pacquiao almost more than he could handle...the edge goes to Marquez;
-the next point is subsumed above - Pacquiao proved that, relatively speaking at these weights, size may simply not matter as much as we all think it should. So...is Marquez as fast and as good as Pacquiao? As Golden Boy's Richard Schaeffer pointed out to Marquez himself, over two fights the official scorecards of 24 rounds favored Pacquiao by one point. One point. The answer must be yes...and while we can in no way take away Pacquiao's three knockdowns that started the draw between the two...absent those points, Marquez weighs out with more points...and importantly, surely actually has more rounds on paper than Pacquiao because of the effect of that one lopsided round. Again...advantage Marquez;
-Marquez has been in deep and proven he will and skills over and over. If there is excess mileage as a result, he's not shown it. Meanwhile, Mayweather looked so relieved to have taken the decision from Oscar in the moments after that win that it was easy to intuit that he was by no means sure he'd won. It took him nine rounds to KO Hatton and while, at the time, taking Hatton's zero looked like a career-defining moment...Pacquiao's humiliation of the popular Brit seemed to put it in perspective, particularly as compared to Pac's dealings with Mr. Marquez. Advantage: Marquez.
-finally...ring rust. While there's little question that Mayweather appears in top shape, that he's bloodying his sparring partners on 24/7 and that he's a world-class boxing technician with an elite level ring IQ...he hasn't been in as deep nearly as often as Marquez...and hasn't in truth been in particularly deep in years. An aging Oscar? A since-exposed Hatton? These were megafights for certain, but they were arguably not against super-elite fighters. OK, so his fight against Oscar might have been Oscar's last great showing...but recall that Oscar had already been taken the distance by an overmatched Stevie Forbes, KO'd by Hopkins and beaten by in his prep fight for Hopkins...only to walk with a uber-questionable decision. By then, Oscar was a millionaire so many times over that he was fighting to find the motivation that clearly eludes him today. Meanwhile, Marquez has been toiling against the best fighters in the world regulary in the last few years...and arguably winning winning every time.
The prediction? My brain says Mayweather wouldn't take this fight if he wasn't certain he could decision Marquez. However...I think he is underestimating the man. They've weighed in at 146 and 142 respectively and this, though the fight was originally contracted for 144. That says to me that Mayweather didn't feel he could comfortably make weight...so he changed the rules in the run up to the fight, upping the contract weight to 147 rather than risk being depleted by the two pound difference. That is the action of a fighter who is concerned about the last two pounds, is strong-arming his opponent just because he can and is taking his opponent lightly. He wants those last two pounds and is coming into the ring thinking those two pounds matter. Pacquiao proved they don't...and I think Marquez will prove they don't. Mayweather, in my judgment, plans on coming in and being aggressive to back Marquez off, then cruising to a decision victory. He underestimates Marquez' skills, speed, power and commitment. Marquez in a four point decision.
Saturday, August 22, 2009
Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz v. Paulie "Magic Man" Malignaggi
Well, folks...the undercard fights went the full distance and it's coming on midnight and I may as well type as I watch. My opinion of the fight is no different after watching HBO's Max Kellerman allow Malignaggi lay the groundwork for his post-fight objections. The Magic Man talked about the small ring, that he agreed to a lower than usual weight at weigh-in (138 1/2 lb.), that he'd been promised neutral judging and that the deck was stacked against him. Indeed, as I typed that line, HBO's Harold Lederman described that fully three of the four "referees" (presumably meaning two of the three judges and the ring ref) are from the Houston area. It's no secret that Baby Bull is a Houston native, much beloved and something of a minor industry there.
As Malignaggi does his ringwalk to AC/DC's "thunderstruck" in a tribute to Arturo Gatti, I can't help but wonder why Diaz' people went to all the effort to stack the deck as described considering that he is, in my opinion at least, a prohibitive favorite. Frankly, I tend to agree that it's a somewhat rigged fight considering that I too saw Houston's Rocky Juarez lose soundly to Chris John, only to be awarded a draw. Two of those judges are scoring this fight, as Malignaggi pointed out. As Kellerman points out, with these advantages "Diaz better win this fight...". If Malignaggi is indeed as drained as Kellerman says he looked after straining to make the lowered contract weight, then it could be an early night for him.
ROUND ONE - Malignaggi comes out firing and Diaz can't get off in the first thirty seconds. Malignaggi definitely getting the better of the first minute and Diaz not throwing...yet. Malignaggi not likely to keep up this pace. He's got a ten cent head and if he builds a lead, he's just as likely to squander it. I predict a classic case of finding something that works...and abandoning it. Malignaggi definitely doesn't have the juice, if Kellerman is to be believed, to keep up this pace. We will see. With the round coming to a close, Malignaggi still getting the better of it. Clearly faster and throwing more. 10-9 Malignaggi.
ROUND TWO - Malignaggi still up at start...Diaz flurries at the thirty second mark and gets back in the fight. The crowd is so badly biased that they cheer everything Diaz does...and until then had been silent. Malignaggi sticks his tongue out...but Malignaggi is cut over his left eye. Diaz starting to catch Malignaggi. Diaz is more effective with a minute left and on clean punches, it's Diaz' round. Malignaggi eating clean hooks. HBO announces Diaz is cut. Round for Diaz to go to 19-19.
ROUND THREE - When Diaz lands, he turns Malignaggi's head and Malignaggi's punches don't seem to have that effect. HBO's Kellerman says Malignaggi is landing some heavy leather, but I don't see it. Still pretty even at the halfway piont. I don't want to let the crowd's roars influence the way I'm seeing the fight either. Crowd boos Paulie moving away. Rough round, but I give it to Malignaggi...but I bet weighted judging goes the other way. 29-28 for Malignaggi.
ROUND FOUR - I match Lederman's card, which is never good news. Thirty seconds in, I see Diaz hammer Malignaggi. Kellerman discussing the disparity in crowd reaction. Malignaggi may have been wobbled. Hard to tell. He stumbled at the 1:45 mark rather badly, but otherwise shows no effect. Malignaggi moving and sticking, but Diaz' shots look better. Malignaggi can't back off Diaz predictably and Diaz can't wade in because Malignaggi is moving. A very close round, but I give it to Diaz...so it's back even at 38-38.
ROUND FIVE - Malignaggi sticking and jabbing very effectively a minute in. Diaz can't get set to punch and has to follow follow follow...finally at the halfway point, Diaz gets a chance because Malignaggi stops moving side to side and away. The crowd reaction is disproportionately pro-Diaz and it skews everything. One wonders with all the disadvantages, notwithstanding the judging, why Malignaggi took this fight at the contract wieght he did in Diaz' notorious backyard. I guess he too realizes that he's very much the underdog. I give the round to Malignaggi 48-47.
ROUND SIX - They are claiming that a second cut on Diaz left eye was caused by a "headbutt" though Diaz' corner seems to think it was an elbow. It's a bad cut. Diaz is fighting predictably with a little more urgency. Diaz moving his hands more, but only can do it because Malignaggi has stopped moving. What a mistake for Malignaggi. At the one minute mark, it' still pretty even, maybe leaning Diaz' way. Malignaggi starts to move again and spends the last minute circling to his left...and HBO notes that Malignaggi might be better served by trying to move right and work that eye. I give the round to Diaz, moving it even again to 57-57.
ROUND SEVEN - My card still apparently matches Lederman. Greeeat. Malignaggi told by his corner to box and not fight. The perfect instruction as pointed out by Kellerman, but Malignaggi isn't doing it. He's fighting. He's stopping and standing in front of Diaz. It's Diaz' round with a minute left because Malignaggi is circling, but not throwing. He's just moving in the last minute and not throwing out an effective punch. Diaz pursuing pursuing and landing here and there. This may be where Malignaggi is showing the wear of making weight. Makes sense. Diaz takes that round: 67-66 Diaz.
ROUND EIGHT - Malignaggi's corner sends him out telling him to "dance". I doubt he has the legs. Thirty seconds in, he looks okay, but Diaz looks a bit fresher. Neither fighter making a dent at the one minute mark. One guy dancing, the other guy pursuing. To Malignaggi's credit, I now see why Diaz' people stacked the deck: Malignaggi is clearly faster. Noticeably faster. Oh good grief...Bob Papa notices that Malignaggi is losing his trunks. This is the same knucklehead who wore hair extensions in his runup fight to Hatton and had to have a literal hearcut between rounds. Neither fighter deserved that round, but since Diaz didn't land a thing that I saw, I'll give it to Malignaggi. Diaz just followed ineffectively all round. Back to even at 76-76.
ROUND NINE - Finally, my card diverges from Lederman as he gave that last round to Diaz. Frankly, it was a toss up. Malignaggi lands effectively at one minute in. Diaz counters with a landed combination ten seconds later. Even halfway through. Malignaggi not effective and moving but not scoring. Diaz trying to cut off the ring and landing a bit, but Malignaggi is slippery but not really landing either. Another chased and chasing round. Give it to Diaz, making it 86-85 for Diaz.
ROUND TEN - Now Lederman has is 86-85 for Malignaggi...odd. I find it hard to like Malignaggi's failure to be effective even as he dances away. It's a fight for fifteen seconds at one minute in and Malignaggi gets the better of it. Now he's on his horse again. As Kellerman says, the "classic pure boxer against the classic pure pressure fighter." That's absolutely right. I see Malignaggi looks better right now...and actually trying to say something to the HBO crew. It seemed to be something like "I've got this...." At that point, he did. He has more left than I thought he would and Diaz has been less effective than I thought he would be because Malignaggi is clearly quicker and faster. Malignaggi takes that round, to make it even again at 95-95.
ROUND ELEVEN - Kellerman says Malignaggi still looks "lightning fast" and while he hasn't always looked that way in this fight, he does look good now. I would have expected the pressure to wear him out and it hasn't because Diaz can't land effectively. Malignaggi quick and fast enough to get away. Malignaggi shook his right hand the way he does when he's hurt it. Is he throwing it? Diaz basically not effective at all. Malignaggi is sticking and moving and while it isn't that effective, he's more effective than Diaz who is spending the whole fight chasing and almost all of it missing. Malignaggi's round and he takes the lead 105 - 104.
ROUND TWELVE - If this round goes as expected, we will see how much the Diaz pre-rigging worked because I think Diaz loses this fight. Diaz doesn't have the power to end it on one punch and Malignaggi all too likely to close the show. Will Diaz look desperate? Diaz buzzes Malignaggi and Malignaggi unfazed. Malignaggi stupidly standing in front of him. Diaz goes too low, but Malignaggi unfazed. Diaz' round at the halfway mark because Malignaggi stopped running. Now Malignaggi dancing a bit, but he doesn't seem to be landing. HBO's Lennox Lewis says Malignaggi looking "really good", but I don't agree. Diaz winning the round with thirty seconds to go. Malignaggi NOT closing the show. Close round goes for Diaz, making it a draw on my card 114 - 114.
116 - 112
115 - 113
118 -110
Unanimous for Diaz. Whoever "Gail Van Hoye" is, she ("he" according to HBO) should be removed as a judge because that's a ridiculous scorecard for this fight. Lederman gave it 115 - 113 to Malignaggi and it was unquestionably a close fight. While I can't say Malignaggi was robbed because it was so close in almost every round that many could go both ways, there is no way that any reasonable judge could have seen it at 118 - 110.
Wow...I forgot that Diaz is a Golden Boy fighter. There's Oscar right there in the background sticking his face into frame like a good promoter. Malignaggi is WAY outspoken in the post-fight interview, calling boxing "bullshit" and making clear that while he called Houston "a great fight town", there was no way he could win. Interestingly, basically ALL of what he said was absolutely true: Diaz is a "true warrior" but Malignaggi had no chance of getting anything but hometowned; that Diaz now has the luxury of calling out a Marquez for a rematch (which he did), but Malignaggi is relegated to opponent status; that boxing is essentially corrupt. He also asked Kellerman how HBO had scored the fight and Kellerman responded "close...7 rounds to 5" and Malignaggi had to force him to admit that Lederman had scored it for him. Paulie also had it right that he and Diaz played to their strengths as the aggressor and the boxer in the closing rounds and he thought he got the better of it. In seeming response (but not to Malignaggi's face) Kellerman climbed out of the ring and made a fair closing point, too...that the "marketplace spoke" in that Diaz is a bigger draw in his hometown because of his exciting style and contrastingly, Malignaggi's style has not allowed him to cultivate that type of following. Hence, Diaz gets hometown fights and hometown decisions.
This one was a lot closer than I thought it would be, frankly. And now I see why Golden Boy pulled out all the stops rigging this thing. They knew Malignaggi was quicker and faster. They made a contract weight a pound and a half under the limit to sap Malignaggi's strength. They contracted for a small ring. They filled the panel with friendly local Texas judges. All to tilt the playing field for their slower, more aggressive fighter.
Paulie...this is boxing...what did you expect?
As Malignaggi does his ringwalk to AC/DC's "thunderstruck" in a tribute to Arturo Gatti, I can't help but wonder why Diaz' people went to all the effort to stack the deck as described considering that he is, in my opinion at least, a prohibitive favorite. Frankly, I tend to agree that it's a somewhat rigged fight considering that I too saw Houston's Rocky Juarez lose soundly to Chris John, only to be awarded a draw. Two of those judges are scoring this fight, as Malignaggi pointed out. As Kellerman points out, with these advantages "Diaz better win this fight...". If Malignaggi is indeed as drained as Kellerman says he looked after straining to make the lowered contract weight, then it could be an early night for him.
ROUND ONE - Malignaggi comes out firing and Diaz can't get off in the first thirty seconds. Malignaggi definitely getting the better of the first minute and Diaz not throwing...yet. Malignaggi not likely to keep up this pace. He's got a ten cent head and if he builds a lead, he's just as likely to squander it. I predict a classic case of finding something that works...and abandoning it. Malignaggi definitely doesn't have the juice, if Kellerman is to be believed, to keep up this pace. We will see. With the round coming to a close, Malignaggi still getting the better of it. Clearly faster and throwing more. 10-9 Malignaggi.
ROUND TWO - Malignaggi still up at start...Diaz flurries at the thirty second mark and gets back in the fight. The crowd is so badly biased that they cheer everything Diaz does...and until then had been silent. Malignaggi sticks his tongue out...but Malignaggi is cut over his left eye. Diaz starting to catch Malignaggi. Diaz is more effective with a minute left and on clean punches, it's Diaz' round. Malignaggi eating clean hooks. HBO announces Diaz is cut. Round for Diaz to go to 19-19.
ROUND THREE - When Diaz lands, he turns Malignaggi's head and Malignaggi's punches don't seem to have that effect. HBO's Kellerman says Malignaggi is landing some heavy leather, but I don't see it. Still pretty even at the halfway piont. I don't want to let the crowd's roars influence the way I'm seeing the fight either. Crowd boos Paulie moving away. Rough round, but I give it to Malignaggi...but I bet weighted judging goes the other way. 29-28 for Malignaggi.
ROUND FOUR - I match Lederman's card, which is never good news. Thirty seconds in, I see Diaz hammer Malignaggi. Kellerman discussing the disparity in crowd reaction. Malignaggi may have been wobbled. Hard to tell. He stumbled at the 1:45 mark rather badly, but otherwise shows no effect. Malignaggi moving and sticking, but Diaz' shots look better. Malignaggi can't back off Diaz predictably and Diaz can't wade in because Malignaggi is moving. A very close round, but I give it to Diaz...so it's back even at 38-38.
ROUND FIVE - Malignaggi sticking and jabbing very effectively a minute in. Diaz can't get set to punch and has to follow follow follow...finally at the halfway point, Diaz gets a chance because Malignaggi stops moving side to side and away. The crowd reaction is disproportionately pro-Diaz and it skews everything. One wonders with all the disadvantages, notwithstanding the judging, why Malignaggi took this fight at the contract wieght he did in Diaz' notorious backyard. I guess he too realizes that he's very much the underdog. I give the round to Malignaggi 48-47.
ROUND SIX - They are claiming that a second cut on Diaz left eye was caused by a "headbutt" though Diaz' corner seems to think it was an elbow. It's a bad cut. Diaz is fighting predictably with a little more urgency. Diaz moving his hands more, but only can do it because Malignaggi has stopped moving. What a mistake for Malignaggi. At the one minute mark, it' still pretty even, maybe leaning Diaz' way. Malignaggi starts to move again and spends the last minute circling to his left...and HBO notes that Malignaggi might be better served by trying to move right and work that eye. I give the round to Diaz, moving it even again to 57-57.
ROUND SEVEN - My card still apparently matches Lederman. Greeeat. Malignaggi told by his corner to box and not fight. The perfect instruction as pointed out by Kellerman, but Malignaggi isn't doing it. He's fighting. He's stopping and standing in front of Diaz. It's Diaz' round with a minute left because Malignaggi is circling, but not throwing. He's just moving in the last minute and not throwing out an effective punch. Diaz pursuing pursuing and landing here and there. This may be where Malignaggi is showing the wear of making weight. Makes sense. Diaz takes that round: 67-66 Diaz.
ROUND EIGHT - Malignaggi's corner sends him out telling him to "dance". I doubt he has the legs. Thirty seconds in, he looks okay, but Diaz looks a bit fresher. Neither fighter making a dent at the one minute mark. One guy dancing, the other guy pursuing. To Malignaggi's credit, I now see why Diaz' people stacked the deck: Malignaggi is clearly faster. Noticeably faster. Oh good grief...Bob Papa notices that Malignaggi is losing his trunks. This is the same knucklehead who wore hair extensions in his runup fight to Hatton and had to have a literal hearcut between rounds. Neither fighter deserved that round, but since Diaz didn't land a thing that I saw, I'll give it to Malignaggi. Diaz just followed ineffectively all round. Back to even at 76-76.
ROUND NINE - Finally, my card diverges from Lederman as he gave that last round to Diaz. Frankly, it was a toss up. Malignaggi lands effectively at one minute in. Diaz counters with a landed combination ten seconds later. Even halfway through. Malignaggi not effective and moving but not scoring. Diaz trying to cut off the ring and landing a bit, but Malignaggi is slippery but not really landing either. Another chased and chasing round. Give it to Diaz, making it 86-85 for Diaz.
ROUND TEN - Now Lederman has is 86-85 for Malignaggi...odd. I find it hard to like Malignaggi's failure to be effective even as he dances away. It's a fight for fifteen seconds at one minute in and Malignaggi gets the better of it. Now he's on his horse again. As Kellerman says, the "classic pure boxer against the classic pure pressure fighter." That's absolutely right. I see Malignaggi looks better right now...and actually trying to say something to the HBO crew. It seemed to be something like "I've got this...." At that point, he did. He has more left than I thought he would and Diaz has been less effective than I thought he would be because Malignaggi is clearly quicker and faster. Malignaggi takes that round, to make it even again at 95-95.
ROUND ELEVEN - Kellerman says Malignaggi still looks "lightning fast" and while he hasn't always looked that way in this fight, he does look good now. I would have expected the pressure to wear him out and it hasn't because Diaz can't land effectively. Malignaggi quick and fast enough to get away. Malignaggi shook his right hand the way he does when he's hurt it. Is he throwing it? Diaz basically not effective at all. Malignaggi is sticking and moving and while it isn't that effective, he's more effective than Diaz who is spending the whole fight chasing and almost all of it missing. Malignaggi's round and he takes the lead 105 - 104.
ROUND TWELVE - If this round goes as expected, we will see how much the Diaz pre-rigging worked because I think Diaz loses this fight. Diaz doesn't have the power to end it on one punch and Malignaggi all too likely to close the show. Will Diaz look desperate? Diaz buzzes Malignaggi and Malignaggi unfazed. Malignaggi stupidly standing in front of him. Diaz goes too low, but Malignaggi unfazed. Diaz' round at the halfway mark because Malignaggi stopped running. Now Malignaggi dancing a bit, but he doesn't seem to be landing. HBO's Lennox Lewis says Malignaggi looking "really good", but I don't agree. Diaz winning the round with thirty seconds to go. Malignaggi NOT closing the show. Close round goes for Diaz, making it a draw on my card 114 - 114.
116 - 112
115 - 113
118 -110
Unanimous for Diaz. Whoever "Gail Van Hoye" is, she ("he" according to HBO) should be removed as a judge because that's a ridiculous scorecard for this fight. Lederman gave it 115 - 113 to Malignaggi and it was unquestionably a close fight. While I can't say Malignaggi was robbed because it was so close in almost every round that many could go both ways, there is no way that any reasonable judge could have seen it at 118 - 110.
Wow...I forgot that Diaz is a Golden Boy fighter. There's Oscar right there in the background sticking his face into frame like a good promoter. Malignaggi is WAY outspoken in the post-fight interview, calling boxing "bullshit" and making clear that while he called Houston "a great fight town", there was no way he could win. Interestingly, basically ALL of what he said was absolutely true: Diaz is a "true warrior" but Malignaggi had no chance of getting anything but hometowned; that Diaz now has the luxury of calling out a Marquez for a rematch (which he did), but Malignaggi is relegated to opponent status; that boxing is essentially corrupt. He also asked Kellerman how HBO had scored the fight and Kellerman responded "close...7 rounds to 5" and Malignaggi had to force him to admit that Lederman had scored it for him. Paulie also had it right that he and Diaz played to their strengths as the aggressor and the boxer in the closing rounds and he thought he got the better of it. In seeming response (but not to Malignaggi's face) Kellerman climbed out of the ring and made a fair closing point, too...that the "marketplace spoke" in that Diaz is a bigger draw in his hometown because of his exciting style and contrastingly, Malignaggi's style has not allowed him to cultivate that type of following. Hence, Diaz gets hometown fights and hometown decisions.
This one was a lot closer than I thought it would be, frankly. And now I see why Golden Boy pulled out all the stops rigging this thing. They knew Malignaggi was quicker and faster. They made a contract weight a pound and a half under the limit to sap Malignaggi's strength. They contracted for a small ring. They filled the panel with friendly local Texas judges. All to tilt the playing field for their slower, more aggressive fighter.
Paulie...this is boxing...what did you expect?
Baby Bull or Magic Man?
We are just moments from the beginning of a telecast on HBO of a fight that will mark the end of one of the two marquee fighters' career as any part of a discussion of the current elite of their division. With Paulie "Magic Man" Malignaggi having been stopped by Ricky "The Splitman" Hatton and Juan "Baby Bull" Diaz having been stopped by Juan Manuel Marquez, each of these guys has now lost the most recent of their two respective biggest fights on the biggest stages. While both are still pretty young (though Diaz is chronologically younger, because he leads with his face, he might be older in fighter years), fans are going to stop thinking of one or the other of them as a real contender, based on tonight's fight. The one will remain in the mix with his fans figuring that on his best night he can stand in with anyone in the division and the other will become a gatekeeper fighter, probably relegated to filling out an undercard and perpetually trying to claw his way back to marquee status.
The one will be Diaz and the other will be Malignaggi, there is little doubt. While Malignaggi is no less a warrior at heart than Diaz, his style is all wrong for Diaz and he will surely get the worst of this matchup. At his best, he is a dancing jabber who picks his spots. That he is also a light puncher for the elite level of the division seals his fate because Diaz has shown (as has Paulie, to his credit) that he is able and willing to absorb punishment to achieve his aims. Unfortunately for the Magic Man, Diaz dishes out a LOT more punishment than does Malignaggi because he punches at probably twice the output. While Diaz is not particularly heavyhanded either, the accumulation of damage is his calling card and he is a workrate fighter who is as committed and skilled at his particular style as any. Until he got caught once too often by Marquez, he was both deep into and right in that fight on my card and as anyone knows, Marquez is unquestionably among the best fighters in the world, irrespective of division.
If the fight turns out to be worth reporting on, I will post again, but the outcome seems pretty well assured: Diaz by TKO in the 10th. Malignaggi is a tough guy and he may last the distance now that he has ejected Buddy "I protect my fighters by humiliating them" McGirt from his corner, but the outcome is pre-determined as far as I'm concerned.
The one will be Diaz and the other will be Malignaggi, there is little doubt. While Malignaggi is no less a warrior at heart than Diaz, his style is all wrong for Diaz and he will surely get the worst of this matchup. At his best, he is a dancing jabber who picks his spots. That he is also a light puncher for the elite level of the division seals his fate because Diaz has shown (as has Paulie, to his credit) that he is able and willing to absorb punishment to achieve his aims. Unfortunately for the Magic Man, Diaz dishes out a LOT more punishment than does Malignaggi because he punches at probably twice the output. While Diaz is not particularly heavyhanded either, the accumulation of damage is his calling card and he is a workrate fighter who is as committed and skilled at his particular style as any. Until he got caught once too often by Marquez, he was both deep into and right in that fight on my card and as anyone knows, Marquez is unquestionably among the best fighters in the world, irrespective of division.
If the fight turns out to be worth reporting on, I will post again, but the outcome seems pretty well assured: Diaz by TKO in the 10th. Malignaggi is a tough guy and he may last the distance now that he has ejected Buddy "I protect my fighters by humiliating them" McGirt from his corner, but the outcome is pre-determined as far as I'm concerned.
Saturday, June 20, 2009
Thanks ESPN Classic for airing the world heavyweight championship!
Okay, so it was a thoroughly predictable thrashing. Even the TKO would have been easy to call, though I think I would have called it as an eighth or ninth round KO by sheer attrition. The most undramatic ascension to the current version of the undisputed heavyweight championship of the world (the Ring version) took place on Saturday and U.S. fightfans hardly cared or noticed. Even this realfightfan had to find it on fight day to Tivo it and was surprised to find it being shown on ESPN Classic.
I thought B.J. Flores did a decent job as the color man for the bout and was better than his accompaniment who seemed a bit of the master of the obvious. B.J.'s pointing out of the foot position problems that Chagaev was failing to overcome was as interesting as his cohort's seemingly disconnected injection of Chagaev's testing positive for hepatitis B seemed contrived and out of context. B.J. didn't bite and it made it seem awkward.
Did I mention that this fight took place in Germany before 60,000 live fans in a soccer stadium or that it was between Ring #1 heavyweight Wladimir Klitschko and Ring #3 Ruslan Chagaev? Setting aside that Chagaev was a last minute (about three weeks before fight night) replacement for David Haye, Chagaev brought a very arguably better set of credentials to fight for the title. Indeed, his involvement allowed the Ring Heavyweight Championship to be awarded for the first time since 2004. I should again give props to ESPN for prominently featuring this fact and repeatedly mentioning that the Ring Heavyweight Championship was on the line. Under the Ring rules, the Championship belt can only be awarded when the champion or #1 and #2 or in limited circumstances #3 Ring contenders fight.
This fight clearly qualified if for no other reason than that the #2 ranked contender is Wladimir's brother Vitali. No one who appreciates the sweet science really wants to see that anyway, in my opinion. After all, this isn't tennis, where the Williams sisters can fret publicly and privately about their rivalry, the press can play it up, they compete in a finals and then have dinner afterward. Our sport is a brutal expression of domination. Put simply, the Williams sisters don't have to punch each other in the face over and over until one of them collapses to collect their paycheck. The Klitschko brothers say they never will and I for one have no desire to see it. In our beloved sport, we deal with all the hypothetical matchups that history has to offer, so one more such matchup among contemporary brothers shouldn't bother anyone.
As to the fight, well Ruslan never stood a chance. He was able to bob and weave his way inside against the man mountain Valuev evidently, but never had a chance against the "robotic" Klitschko. Well...it's hard to blame Wladimir for playing the robot if the robot kicks your ass. And the robot thoroughly kicked Ruslan Chagaev's ass. "Dr. Steelhammer" pumped the left jab all night, following up with a straight right hand and simply punished Chagaev over and over. Chagaev was cut midway through the fight over his left eye and while that tacitly acted as the basis of the TKO stoppage, that wasn't it. It was the punishment Chagaev was enduring and while the doctor was checking out his eye, Chagaev's trainer leaned over and whispered in his fighter's ear. It must've been "you've had enough, I'm putting a stop to this."
That was a good call. It was no context and Chagaev had no answers. His olympic pedigree, undefeated record coming in and alphabet championship belt couldn't get him past that left jab. I agree with B.J. that it's a mystery why Chagaev didn't try to move to his right to escape the big right hand, to set up his own left hook and maybe punish Klitschko's body under his left arm to bring that jab down. Easy for me to say, perhaps...but it looked like he didn't even try. Maybe it would have made no difference at all, but it seemed a sounder strategy than the one that made him a punching bag for nine rounds until he retired on his stool rather than come out for the tenth. I didn't score it, but didn't have to. Every round for Klitschko with the second round being 10-8 for Klitschko's knockdown of Chagaev on a flush straight right.
So where does the heavyweight division go from here? Well, I agree that the Klitschko v. Haye fight is interesting, but I think Haye stands little chance. He is chinny and very likely to get KO'd. He brings a punch, even a heavyweight punch...but Klitschko today is not the Wladimir of yesterday. He hasn't seemed as easy to rattle. He rose three times against Peter to win by decision and has kept learning what Steward has been teaching him: be willing to win on points; don't take chances; go with what works; avoid your weaknesses; don't try to please critics. That is the Lennox Lewis blueprint and as criticized as he was for his lack of aggression and killer instinct in his career, he is now lionized as the last great heavyweight champion.
It's picky to write this when I'm pleased that ESPN broadcast the fight at all, considering what must have been a cast off by HBO once Haye withdrew...but their running of the scoreboard crawl below the fight during the broadcast was a poor decision. It was distracting, annoying and it interfered with my enjoyment of the fight. I love ESPN, appreciate their commitment to the fight game and again...that they broadcast this fight (even if they didn't send the first string...apologies again to B.J. who did a good job, especially for an active fighter!), but next time guys...lose the crawl.
I'm looking forward to seeing what Chris Arreola can do against Wladimir. Can he do more? I don't know, but I bet he was watching this fight and going , "why isn't he working to bring that jab down????look at where his front foot is??? why is he not circling right??? Shoooot...this guy can be beat!!!" Can he? I don't know. For all his robotics, Wladimir Klitschko looks like a pretty tough model.
I thought B.J. Flores did a decent job as the color man for the bout and was better than his accompaniment who seemed a bit of the master of the obvious. B.J.'s pointing out of the foot position problems that Chagaev was failing to overcome was as interesting as his cohort's seemingly disconnected injection of Chagaev's testing positive for hepatitis B seemed contrived and out of context. B.J. didn't bite and it made it seem awkward.
Did I mention that this fight took place in Germany before 60,000 live fans in a soccer stadium or that it was between Ring #1 heavyweight Wladimir Klitschko and Ring #3 Ruslan Chagaev? Setting aside that Chagaev was a last minute (about three weeks before fight night) replacement for David Haye, Chagaev brought a very arguably better set of credentials to fight for the title. Indeed, his involvement allowed the Ring Heavyweight Championship to be awarded for the first time since 2004. I should again give props to ESPN for prominently featuring this fact and repeatedly mentioning that the Ring Heavyweight Championship was on the line. Under the Ring rules, the Championship belt can only be awarded when the champion or #1 and #2 or in limited circumstances #3 Ring contenders fight.
This fight clearly qualified if for no other reason than that the #2 ranked contender is Wladimir's brother Vitali. No one who appreciates the sweet science really wants to see that anyway, in my opinion. After all, this isn't tennis, where the Williams sisters can fret publicly and privately about their rivalry, the press can play it up, they compete in a finals and then have dinner afterward. Our sport is a brutal expression of domination. Put simply, the Williams sisters don't have to punch each other in the face over and over until one of them collapses to collect their paycheck. The Klitschko brothers say they never will and I for one have no desire to see it. In our beloved sport, we deal with all the hypothetical matchups that history has to offer, so one more such matchup among contemporary brothers shouldn't bother anyone.
As to the fight, well Ruslan never stood a chance. He was able to bob and weave his way inside against the man mountain Valuev evidently, but never had a chance against the "robotic" Klitschko. Well...it's hard to blame Wladimir for playing the robot if the robot kicks your ass. And the robot thoroughly kicked Ruslan Chagaev's ass. "Dr. Steelhammer" pumped the left jab all night, following up with a straight right hand and simply punished Chagaev over and over. Chagaev was cut midway through the fight over his left eye and while that tacitly acted as the basis of the TKO stoppage, that wasn't it. It was the punishment Chagaev was enduring and while the doctor was checking out his eye, Chagaev's trainer leaned over and whispered in his fighter's ear. It must've been "you've had enough, I'm putting a stop to this."
That was a good call. It was no context and Chagaev had no answers. His olympic pedigree, undefeated record coming in and alphabet championship belt couldn't get him past that left jab. I agree with B.J. that it's a mystery why Chagaev didn't try to move to his right to escape the big right hand, to set up his own left hook and maybe punish Klitschko's body under his left arm to bring that jab down. Easy for me to say, perhaps...but it looked like he didn't even try. Maybe it would have made no difference at all, but it seemed a sounder strategy than the one that made him a punching bag for nine rounds until he retired on his stool rather than come out for the tenth. I didn't score it, but didn't have to. Every round for Klitschko with the second round being 10-8 for Klitschko's knockdown of Chagaev on a flush straight right.
So where does the heavyweight division go from here? Well, I agree that the Klitschko v. Haye fight is interesting, but I think Haye stands little chance. He is chinny and very likely to get KO'd. He brings a punch, even a heavyweight punch...but Klitschko today is not the Wladimir of yesterday. He hasn't seemed as easy to rattle. He rose three times against Peter to win by decision and has kept learning what Steward has been teaching him: be willing to win on points; don't take chances; go with what works; avoid your weaknesses; don't try to please critics. That is the Lennox Lewis blueprint and as criticized as he was for his lack of aggression and killer instinct in his career, he is now lionized as the last great heavyweight champion.
It's picky to write this when I'm pleased that ESPN broadcast the fight at all, considering what must have been a cast off by HBO once Haye withdrew...but their running of the scoreboard crawl below the fight during the broadcast was a poor decision. It was distracting, annoying and it interfered with my enjoyment of the fight. I love ESPN, appreciate their commitment to the fight game and again...that they broadcast this fight (even if they didn't send the first string...apologies again to B.J. who did a good job, especially for an active fighter!), but next time guys...lose the crawl.
I'm looking forward to seeing what Chris Arreola can do against Wladimir. Can he do more? I don't know, but I bet he was watching this fight and going , "why isn't he working to bring that jab down????look at where his front foot is??? why is he not circling right??? Shoooot...this guy can be beat!!!" Can he? I don't know. For all his robotics, Wladimir Klitschko looks like a pretty tough model.
Monday, May 4, 2009
Is Manny Pacquiao Superman?
Yes. Manny Pacquiao is Superman. I called this fight for Hatton for all sorts of logical reasons, but I didn't count on Hatton being unable to see the punches coming. As all of us who watched the fight know, this wasn't because of some trickery like hiding power shots behind jabs or punching from angles. Manny wasn't even coming punching unconventionally. His punches were just so fast that Ricky Hatton didn't see them coming. And they were bombs, every one. Manny was reset so fast and throwing so hard and fast over and over that it was a super fast, witheringly accurate attack. Hatton had no chance.
This wasn't even competitive. Ricky Hatton had convinced himself that he would be able to bully Pacquiao and like Freddy Roach candidly said, Hatton can't adjust. Indeed, after a first round in which Hatton was dropped twice, he stepped up the aggressiveness that had put him so squarely in harm's way. Folly.
And I think the question is answered once and for all whether the Pac man is bringing his punch up with him. This was no overtrained Oscar, this was a natural 140 pounder in Hatton who'd only ever tasted canvas once before. Hatton was prepared. He came well-trained and with a game plan. Hatton got blown out. I wonder whether Pacquiao just retired him. Heck, he just retired Oscar! Hatton got a guaranteed $12M if the HBO commentators are to be believed, so where is his motivation. He's now sure that he's not the best in his division. Gone is his Ring belt and any illusion that he'd just taken a step up too far for Mayweather. I bet he retires...and he probably should. I suspect he's been shattered by this as a fighter. He seemed fragile enough after losing to Mayweather. It was a good run, Ricky. Hang'em up, son.
So the obvious question becomes, once Mayweather decisions Juan Manuel Marquez, will he fight Manny Pacquiao? For the first time since he retired, I think every realfightfan around thinks the pound-for-pound title is rightly occupied by his successor. Manny Pacquiao has proved not only that he belongs at the top of the P4P list, but that he deserves to stay there even though Floyd, Jr. has unretired. Like any realfightfan, I can't wait for that fight. I'm sure that Mr. Marquez has different plans, but I don't think that's going to make any difference. The next superfight is all but set...if Mayweather doesn't duck it. But this time, I don't think he can. Maybe...just maybe...he doesn't want to.
This wasn't even competitive. Ricky Hatton had convinced himself that he would be able to bully Pacquiao and like Freddy Roach candidly said, Hatton can't adjust. Indeed, after a first round in which Hatton was dropped twice, he stepped up the aggressiveness that had put him so squarely in harm's way. Folly.
And I think the question is answered once and for all whether the Pac man is bringing his punch up with him. This was no overtrained Oscar, this was a natural 140 pounder in Hatton who'd only ever tasted canvas once before. Hatton was prepared. He came well-trained and with a game plan. Hatton got blown out. I wonder whether Pacquiao just retired him. Heck, he just retired Oscar! Hatton got a guaranteed $12M if the HBO commentators are to be believed, so where is his motivation. He's now sure that he's not the best in his division. Gone is his Ring belt and any illusion that he'd just taken a step up too far for Mayweather. I bet he retires...and he probably should. I suspect he's been shattered by this as a fighter. He seemed fragile enough after losing to Mayweather. It was a good run, Ricky. Hang'em up, son.
So the obvious question becomes, once Mayweather decisions Juan Manuel Marquez, will he fight Manny Pacquiao? For the first time since he retired, I think every realfightfan around thinks the pound-for-pound title is rightly occupied by his successor. Manny Pacquiao has proved not only that he belongs at the top of the P4P list, but that he deserves to stay there even though Floyd, Jr. has unretired. Like any realfightfan, I can't wait for that fight. I'm sure that Mr. Marquez has different plans, but I don't think that's going to make any difference. The next superfight is all but set...if Mayweather doesn't duck it. But this time, I don't think he can. Maybe...just maybe...he doesn't want to.
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