Pacquiao v. Hatton prediction and Showtime fights

I've now just consecutively watched the middle two episodes of the four part series 24/7 Pacquiao/Hatton. I'm tempted by the depiction to say that Hatton looks like his camp is more grueling and that Pacquiao trainer Freddy Roach looks significantly slowed by Parkinson's, but I wonder if that is the way that the filmmakers want me to see it. I'm really interested in this fight because I do think that Hatton has largely bounced back from his loss to Mayweather, which was a huge blow to Hatton's sense of himself as a fighter. I'm not certain he's 100% back and much will depend on that.

Are Pacquiao's hands otherworldly fast? no. They just looked that way against an overtrained and underweight Oscar DelaHoya. Pacquiao has been in wars with equally fast-handed fighters in lighter weight classes and while he's come out on top in most of those fights, he's been tested. He's definitely improved under Roach's tutelage and become a more complete fighter, throwing in combination and using angles, but he may have peaked and bitten off more than he can chew at this weight. Hatton on the other hand is at his natural weight and is a fast-handed bullying roughhouser. There's method to his madness, but if he allows Pacquiao separation (or more to the point, if he cannot prevent Pacquiao getting separation), it's going to be a long night for the Hatton camp.

I don't see Pacquiao having a significant handspeed advantage so the question will be whether Hatton has the will to step inside those windmills for eight to ten rounds to do the damage inside that he needs to do to wear Pacquiao down. He's going to absorb a lot of punishment while doing it and he may simply not have the stomach for it anymore. He has long been known as a guy who balloons up in weight between fights and now he's rich to boot. He certainly looks like he's ready to fight and surely has picked up a few tricks from Floyd, Sr., but he'll revert to his old self in the ring.

So...as the worn-out adage goes, styles make fights. I can't recall Manny having to fight a style like Ricky's before at this level and I think it will smother and frustrate him. Manny does not have the patient disposition of Mayweather, nor the countering skills or reach advantage. I'm going against the conventional wisdon and taking Hatton by 11th round TKO.

On to a different subject, I'm watching Allan Green in a twelve rounder, I'm curious to see if he can bounce back after his health problems and devastating KO loss to Edison Miranda. In with Carlos DeLoeon, Jr., he is stepping up after putting together four straight wins after that KO. I picked him as a real comer in the super middleweight division, but one wonders if he can overcome the removal of 85% of his colon. While watching it as I type, Green KOs DeLeon in the second round. Devastating knockout with four knockdowns before the stoppage. Nice to see Allan back. He says he wants to step into the deep end of the pool. Looks like he's ready.

WBC supermiddleweight belt on the line on showtime. Carl Froch is an undefeated Brit super middleweight going in against Jermaine Taylor. Jermaine routinely fights to the level of his opponents and has a bum rap as a fighter who's failed to fulfill his potential, but frankly he's still a world class fighter in my opinion. I'm a realfightfan and I've hardly heard of this hothouse flower Froch and while once in a blue moon, these fighters have been toiling in anonymity and are truly great (see Joe Calzaghe), he's unquestionably not been in with the type of competition that Taylor's been in with for years. Froch is stepping way up and Taylor always comes prepared. I see Taylor feeling him out for a few rounds and ending it in the seventh once he gets his rhythm and starts to punish Froch. Now I'll watch the fight and see if I'm right.

Round One. They say Froch has a "granite chin", but he better because he's eating a lot of leather. Froch leaves his lead hand hanging. If he is tough, he's going to take a beating at this rate.Taylor clearly faster and seems to know it. Taylor punching in combination. Froch hanging in, but Taylor clearly takes round one 10-9

Round Two. Froch starts better and Taylor not as aggressive. Even round halfway through. Froch lands and because Taylor is not countering aggressively, Froch looks much better. Froch for the first time is coming forward. Taylor looks less disciplined. Taylor tries to steal the round at the end, but it's Froch's round, 19-19.

Round Three. It's starting to look ugly as they mash together and smash heads. both are tentative. I think Froch got Taylor's attention and now Taylor is pacing himself. If he's not careful, he'll pace himself right out of the fight. Froch landing better, but Taylor lands very clean and hard. That seems to turn the round for Taylor with a minute left and Froch is hurt. Definitely hurt. Froch down! for an eight count. 27 seconds for round to survive. Taylor not finishing Froch. Round ends with Froch on his feet. 10-8 round for Taylor, making it 29-27 for Taylor.

Round Four. Taylor is not wading in and that emboldens Froch, who advances punching wildly. Taylor throwing big punches and trying to end it with one punch. Taylor seems to think he sees something, I think. He's catching Froch coming in. With a minute left, it's looking a little ugly and that is to Forch's advantage. Froch doesn't seem to be the worse for wear. Close round and I give it to Taylor for landing jabs because Froch doesn't land much at all. 39-36 favoring Taylor.

Round Five. Taylor throws a nice combination forty seconds in. This fight reminds me of just how much of a counterpuncher Taylor is. They say Taylor looks loose, but he never looks loose to me. I think that's why he tires. He's always a coiled spring. Pretty even round with forty seconds to go. Taylor goes to the body and lands hard. Froch throwing but not landing. They keep throwing even after the bell. Close round, but goes to Taylor because while Froch is throwing, not much is effective. 49-45 in favor of Taylor.

Round Six. Froch re-dedicated and landing, but still taking punishment. Both fighters land big clean shots and neither looks affected. Froch is ahead with a minute to go. Taylor still fighting back and landing. Tough round to score because Taylor came on at the end, but I'll give it to Froch because he landed a couple of stunningly clean shots. To Taylor's credit, he walked through them. Taylor still ahead 58-55.

Round Seven. The commentators say that Taylor tends to fade and that's true. Is he fading now? not appreciably, but he is throwing a little less frequently and being a little less aggressive, trying to time Froch coming in. He's waiting this round and he's eating punches for his trouble. Maybe he's waiting for Froch to give him a big opening. Pretty even with a minute to go as Froch slows a bit later in the round. Another very close round. I give it to Taylor but it could go either way. Taylor up by a score of 68-64.

Round Eight. Froch tends to jump in and Al Bernstein seems to think Froch is hurting Taylor. Taylor bouncing on his toes, as if to show that he is not hurt. Froch clearly ahead with a half round to go. Taylor not as busy and he looks defensive. Froch advancing and stalking Taylor. Taylor is allowing Froch to jump in and at the end of the round, in the closing twenty seconds Taylor stuns Froch, hitting him with an uppercut and a clubbing cross to cause Froch to almost stumble returning to his corner. Boyoboy that's tough to score, but I give it to Froch because he was dominating the round until the final twenty seconds. Taylor still up, narrowed to 77-75.

Round Nine. Both men take the first minute off and Bernstein probably correctly speculates that it's because Taylor is pacing himself and Froch doesn't want to make a mistake. Froch just crossing with the right hand and stepping in without defense and it's all whether Taylor can take advantage. Taylor clearly has the advantage is speed. Taylor dances away and Taylor doing the better tapdancing work. With twenty seconds left, Taylor had slight edge and he takes it into the round's end. Another for Taylor, moving it to 87-84.

Round Ten. Froch walks in and starts the round well, but still it's all wading in without defense. Taylor seems too gassed to counter. Froch unloading and Taylor not really answering. Halfway through, Froch is winning the round easily. With a minte left, Taylor throws with bad intentions in an angry combination, but does little else. Taylor comes on a bit late, but it's not enough. Round to Froch leaves Taylor up by a score of 96-94.

Round Eleven. Froch more aggressive and Taylor is fading again. Taylor not punching enough, it's that simple. Froch is back in this fight because these are teh most important rounds and Taylor is holding on, but just then Taylor comes on and Froch seems unaffected but very exciting last minute. Both guys throwing haymakers and Taylor getting the better of it, surprisingly. Though he started very slowly, Froch did not do enough to carry a big enough lead into the halfway mark to overcome the late surge by Taylor. Taylor takes the round and goes up 106-103 on my card.

Round Twelve. Taylor lands better in the first minute. Froch puts Taylor in trouble! Taylor barely able to stand up. Taylor holding on. Taylor finally fighting back a little, but Froch puts him down! He got in trouble too early. Taylor getting hit too much and with 16 seconds left, the referee has to step in to stop it and it was a good stoppage. Wow. Taylor simply ran out of gas. The better boxer lost because the better boxer could not go 12 rounds. Wow. KO for Froch.

With all respect to Froch, he'll not be able to do this against the elite of the division. Jermaine is not the biggest puncher in the division, but then again...Froch did wear him out. This will vault Froch into the conversation. We'll see how he does. I got this wrong. It looked like it would end the way I expected, but Jermaine did not close it.

Post-fight, Jim Grey says two of the official cards had it 106-102 for Taylor, so those track my card pretty closely. It was a good stop though. Taylor's hands were coming down and he was unable to defend himself. Great fight.

Realtime post - 4/11/09 HBO fight card

Okay, so I couldn't stay away. It's more fun to post with the keyboard on my lap than it is to score the fights then post the results. And this way, I get to post how I did with my predictions immediately.

Arreola v. McCline

I forgot that McCline always looks like he's on stilts. Round one. Steward aptly points out that McCline always starts fast, but fades. That's true. Arreola begins by working the body. Arreola goes up top and McCline jabbing rather ineffectively. A minute left. McCline making more noise grunting as he throws a jab than his actual jab is making. Arreola lands big shot across McCline's chin with a right hand. Toe to toe and Arreola takes round one, up 10-9.

Round two. McCline claims to have "retired" after his last fight and that this is a comeback fight. Whatever. He's 39-9 coming in and he takes what comes his way. Arreola walking him down and moving his hands. McCline finally lands a shot, but Arreola is having his way. McCline is almost totally defensive with a minute left. Larry Merchant calls Arreola a combination puncher and Merchant clearly likes him. He's hard not to like considering how much he throws his hands. Arreola easily takes round two, up 20-18.

Round three. McCline throwing punches in an effort to keep Arreola off but he's not discouraging him. Merchant reminds us that McCline did knock down Peter three times. To me, it looks like McCline is gassed, with his mouth hanging open. McCline is punching back, though. Arreola momentarily wobbled! And again, McCline shows no finishing instinct. I see McCline's straight right repeatedly finds a home on Arreola's advancing chin. Arreola lands a good uppercut, but McCline lands a hard left to Arreola's face. Good fighting round goes to McCline, down 28-29.

My card matches Lederman, but this is a pretty obvious scoring fight so far. I think McCline runs out of gas in a few rounds. Arreola is definitely getting the better of it, landing combinations and throwing with both hands as he leans in and upward at the tall McCline. Down goes McCline! A hard combination puts him down and he doesn't beat the count. To be fair, it really didn't look like he wanted to get up...but it's probably a good thing he didn't. Arreola was accurate and strong. The replay of the KO combination was impressive: an uppercut setting up a right cross, reset and a two punch combination drops McCline. Not a single punch missed.

Arreola KO over McCline round 4.

Williams v. Wright

Merchant introduces the fight by saying the if Williams uses his natural gifts, specifically his speed, he should "uphold the 2-1 odds." Now Steward chimes in saying that this is the "worst fight for Winky Wright". These are experienced boxing minds, so it's hard to overlook them. My contrarian nature has me bucking their wisdom as underestimating Wright...but I've got to agree. If Williams shows up, his awkward presentation, his volume punching, punches from angles and southpaw stance will negate Wright's typical southpaw stance, awkward peekaboo style and counterpunching. Merchant's point was that speed exposes age. It should. I have time to type this because of the delay.

This fight is at middleweight 160lbs. when Williams is also actively campaigning at 147lb. welterweight. Wright is age 37 and Williams is 27. Williams has a 2 1/2" reach advantage.
Williams comes out first, which means that Wright negotiated to come out last. Well, Wright should go out first on the way out. I've seen Wright be a poor sport after losing decisions, so perhaps he'll make another quick exit afterward. We'll see.

Geez...Winky hasn't fought in a year and 262 days? How crazy is that? And in the run-up, I am reminded that the fight I specifically recall him thinking he won when he lost was in against Bernard Hopkins. The HBO team reminds me that Winky turned down a lucrative rematch with Jermaine Taylor after a draw, opting to sit out for these nearly two years. Hmph. Let's get this started, already...

Round one. "I'm fair but I'm firm" Joe Cortez is the referee. This guy is a bum. I've seen this prima donna screw up some good fights. Let's hope he doesn't do it tonight. Williams looks very long and faster, even though Winky doesn't look slow or rusty really. Half way through. Wright connecting. Merchant says Williams does not fight tall. Williams is not moving his hands quite constantly. When he does throw, he has the advantage. Williams succeeds in the last minute. I give it to Winky, though. close round. Wright 10-9.

Round two. Lederman gave the first round to Williams. Williams hitting Wright more halfway through. Wright is stunned by the frequency of the punches. Now Williams takes thirty seconds off and Wright comes back a bit. Wright lands, but Williams' volume is way up. Forty seconds left and volume is getting the better of Wright. Welt on Winky's eye according to the HBO team. This one goes to Williams, even at 19-19.

Round three. Williams throws so much that there is nowhere for Wright to fit in his punches. With a minute left, Williams slows a bit. Merchant thinks Wright thinks he can knock out Williams, but I find that very doubtful. Not only does Winky not KO poeple, but Williams has a solid beard...which he promptly proves as Wright lands a heavy punch and Williams shows zero effect. Forty seconds left. Williams edges a close round. He's not landing a lot, but Wright can't get off enough to make an impression. Williams goes ahead 29-28.

Round four. Lederman gives all three rounds so far to Williams. Lederman is in love with Williams. Halfway through and Wright has almost seemed not to throw a punch. Wright stuck in defensive mode and doesn't seem to have time to break out of his peekaboo defense. Finally some life from Wright, but Williams is pouring on the punching. No place for Wright to go. Williams is also fighting rough. They touch gloves at the round's end. Williams takes this round pretty clearly to go up 39-37.

Round five. Williams starting again to throw his hands so much that Wright doesn't know what to do. Wright holding Williams' head down and Wright throwing less. Seems to be looking for a big punch, but is stymied by the volume from Williams. I doubt there's any way to prepare for a fighter like Williams. Williams lands a big punch and Wright walks though. Wright holding Williams. Merchant says he sees this round as Winky's best, but if so I missed it. The corners seem to agree, but I've got to give it to Williams, up 49-46.

Round six. Williams' corner tells him to avoid a brawl. Wright countering effectively and Williams' volume definitely dropping. Williams allowing Wright into his space. Williams not moving and throwing a lot, so it's a boxing match...which favors Wright. Still a close round and Williams closes strong. Very close round. I give it to Wright, so he closes to 56-58.

Round seven. Lampley obsesses over the worthless punchtrack numbers, intoning that Williams' punch output has doubled Wright. Lederman gives every round to Williams, enthusiastically endorsing the skills of Williams. One minute left and Winky looks tired and is moving like a tired fighter. He still has quick movement, but I think the pace is wearing on him. Williams takes it, going up 68-65.

Round eight. I'm wrong that Lederman has given every round to Williams. He has it 69-64. Williams is putting Wright almost entirely defensive. Wright accomplishing little in there. Wright working the body a lilttle, but it's not making a dent and Williams is still bringing lots of pain. Winky is just absorbing it, trying to deflect as many as he can. Williams is outlanding to such an extent that Wright's occasional efforts are lost. Williams' round again, 78-74.

Round nine. Williams takes the first minute off, which means that he dances and still outpunches Wright. Williams energy is endless. Williams still looks fresh and Wright looks whipped. Wright pins Williams left hand and Williams hits Wright about ten times with the unpinned hand. Wright looks baffled. Ten seconds. Wright doesn't even try to close the round well. Williams takes another, going up 88-83.

Round ten. I've seen Wright in a lot of fights and he doesn't ever look this beaten. Williams barrages Wright. Wright is totally defensive and Williams looks a bit like he's having fun! Williams punch volume is going up! and he's smiling and it's not an act. He's crushing a world class fighter. Wow. Wright has presented major problems for Jermaine Taylor, Bernard Hopkins, etc.. Emmanuel Steward calls Williams freakishly talented. It appears true. Wright lands a couple, but Williams pays him back with a dozen punches. Williams again, 98-92.

Round eleven. For the first time, Wright's corner tells him the truth: "we're behind in this fight..." Ya think? Well...it's not Wright's fault. He's looked pretty sharp...when he can punch. Wright turns up the volume himself, seemingly in response to his corner, but Williams comes on and shuts him down. Williams threw the most punches (105) of the fight in the tenth. His punch output is going up! unreal for a fighter standing six foot three and weighing in at 160lb.. Wright is game, but still only wants to fight in spurts. A closer round still goes to Williams 108-101.

Round twelve. Williams comes out like a house on fire. Wright fights back but he can't keep up. For a few moments it's an all out war at ring center, but Wright doesn't fight that way and they fall together in a clinch. Merchant notes that Williams is showing that he wants to close the show. I agree. For a guy who is so far ahead, it's nice to see him mixing it up. Williams is exposing himself despite his corner's admonition coming in to be wary of Wright as a desperate fighter. Ten seconds. Both are throwing and they hug it out after the bell. Williams takes the last round, for a final tally on my card favoring Williams 118-110.

Official Judges scorecards: 119-109 by both Roth and Hoyle and 120-108 shutout by Byrd (a marginal judge who scored the Calzaghe/Hopkins fight for Hopkins). Unanimous decision for Paul Williams. A blowout. Wow. This was far more one-sided than I expected. I knew that if the volume game was brought by Williams, he would have a distinct advantage. Boy did he ever.

As to my predictions from earlier tonight, I'd say I did pretty well. I predicted a 9th round KO for Arreola, but it happened earlier, in the 4th round. My excuse is that I didn't realize that McCline had considered himself retired until six weeks before tonight. As for the Williams/Wright matchup, I called it correctly as a decision for Williams and even predicted a wider margin if Williams showed up ready to use volume punching as his primary weapon, but I didn't envision a blowout. Williams was very impressive against a top level middleweight who has given the best middleweights in the world fits. Wow.

Predictions for 4/11/09 Arreola/McCline & Williams/Wright

I'm back after a significant layoff to enter my fight night predictions for the April 11, 2009 HBO card! I've watched a few fights since my last blog but just haven't been able to get excited about any fights. Frankly, these aren't really exciting either, but they aren't all that easy to predict.

The undercard boasts the up and coming leads-with-his-face-and-it-shows Cristobal Arreola. The most promising young American heavyweight has shown legitimate boxing skills, a decent chin, a finisher's instinct and an inability to either get out of the way of punches or stop eating. Every time I see this guy, he's fatter and that is not going to improve his speed or his defense. Fortunately for him, he's not going to have to worry about it against perennial trialhorse gatekeeper Jameel McCline. McCline is a mountain of a man who exhibits flashes of skill, but lacks a killer instinct and is satisfied to draw out a fight and lose a decision. That said, I see McCline unable to avoid the aggressiveness of Arreola. This goes four or five rounds until Arreola realizes he can get inside by absorbing a punch or two and he starts driving McCline backward. Once McCline is backing up, his reach advantage is neutralized and he covers up. Arreola exploits this by working the body, getting the hands to drop, then pummelling McCline into submission. KO for Arreola in round 9.

Okay so that one didn't feel as tough as I thought it would be...but Wright v. Williams is a different story. Nobody wants to fight either of these guys, so they end up fighting each other. Paul Williams, who is campaigning in three weight classes simultaneously apparently, doesn't deserve this kind of treatment. He is an exciting fighter who punches in bunches and has shown flash knockout power. He should be getting marquee fights and the only reason he isn't is because he lost his undefeated record to a lesser fighter who fought the fight of his life to beat him. Despite Williams avenging that loss immediately and dramatically, the allure of the unbeaten record disappeared and with it the marquee value of fighting a guy who is so darn tough to handle. Williams is long, strong, willing and lets his hands go. So now Williams is back to struggling to find big fights.

Wright on the other hand deserves every bit of his reputation. While he's earned a realfightfan's respect, he's never been fun to watch. He's a pure counterpuncher and lacks knockout power. He's perfectly willing to win rounds by making the other guy look bad, even when he's losing the crowd. He's tough to hit through his peek-a-boo style, so he seldom absorbs serious punishment and nearly always takes fights to decision. He's a heck of a boxer, but fans...including this realfightfan...want to see something more. We want to see aggression and a willingness to mix it up. Wright doesn't get dragged into brawls. He controls pace, plays defense and waits to exploit other fighter's mistakes.

So who wins? I'm calling Paul Williams to decision Wright, maybe even by split decision. Wright is getting older and while his style shouldn't be hurt too much by slowing down a fraction and he'll surely be in shape for the fight, Williams is a volume puncher. Though we've seen Williams depart from that volume style in some recent fights, at least in spots, I think Williams will revert to form for this fight. He should. If Williams lays back, then Wright will exploit every lapse and steal rounds. I expect Williams to figure that out at some point and let his hands go full time. If Williams does that early, the margin should be wider.

That said, I think that Williams too is aging a bit as a fighter. What I mean by that is that what we've seen in the last few fights may be a penchant for taking time off here and there. Maybe Williams is a little less hungry. Maybe he feels he's proved himself, at least in part...and he doesn't have to be so relentless to compete at the highest level. If that's true tonight, Wright will make him pay. In the Williams fights I witnessed in his ascendency (which, to be fair, he could still be said to be in), he threw punches almost constantly. In handily defeating the now-disgraced, but then much-avoided Antonio Margarito, Williams never let up. He baffled Margarito for the entire first half of the fight, barraging him non-stop. Margarito couldn't catch his breath or make sense of it. He closed the gap a bit later in the fight, but it was too late. If Williams holds Wright in the same regard as he clearly did Margarito, we might see the re-emergence of that volume puncher. If so, Wright will be fighting off his heels all night and while he is a superlative counterpuncher, you can't counter when you're constantly being punched in the face.

Looking forward to this fight night on HBO.