Fast Eddie Chambers steps up...and in too deep

This result could also be called Alexander Povetkin wins a chance to get beat up by Wladimir Klitschko. In this past Saturday night's IBF heavyweight eliminator, 2004 olympic superheavyweight champion Alexander Povetkin took on "Fast" Eddie Chambers for a mandatory shot at the younger (or is it the only?) Klitschko. After watching them both, they might as well be roman slaves trampling each other for the chance to face off against Russell Crowe's Gladiator. You'll get a few seconds of screen time...but it's not gonna end well.

This was my first look at Povetkin, so my allegiance was with the Pennsylvania born, Philly fighter Chambers. Not only is Chambers the American, but I'd seen him before and he'd looked very good, if undersized and underpowered. The comparison to the slick, light-punching Chris Byrd is apt and as a student of the game I have always enjoyed Byrd's craft, especially against lesser opponents. Like Byrd, Chambers really shines when in with an opponent who can be baffled by his speed and elusiveness. Speed and elusiveness are too rare in the heavyweight division. Also like Byrd though, Chambers is destined to disappoint at heavyweight. In with perhaps the first opponent who was not discouraged by his lightning fast counterpunching, Chambers was left quite clearly without an answer for Povetkin who stepped up his work rate in response to being beat to the punch. Deprived of the chance to admire his work and pick his spots, Chambers stopped moving his hands and Povetkin trampled him throughout the second half of the fight.

I had all of the first 5 rounds close, with the odd numbered rounds going to Chambers. He was being outworked, but his punches were unquestionably cleaner and more dramatic. He was landing clean straight right hands over the top and Povetkin was swelling up quickly. But then from round six on, a strange thing happened. Chambers stopped punching. He halved his workrate in a fight in which he was clearly already being outworked, but that he was winning based on his connect percentage being so much higher (at least on my card). Until round 9, I was worried that I was witnessing the one of those fights where you mourn the opportunity lost because the clearly more talented of two undefeated fighters was going to be handed his first loss. But by the end of round ten, I no longer felt sorry for Chambers. His corner was telling him to move his hands and he was nodding understanding, agreeing... then going out and waiting...waiting...waiting for an opportunity that never came...and which he never created. I felt as frustrated for him as they did until I realized that he was caught like a deer in the headlights of Povetkin's will to win. Povetkin wanted it so much more than Chambers that he was throwing 80 to 90 punches a round though he clearly appeared winded. He never slowed down...and I can't help but wonder if Chambers was waiting for him to do just that. If that was the case, it never happened.

It also seems possible that Chambers was for the first time faced with a heavyweight who wasn't intimidated by his skill. He was accustomed to discouraging even fighters who were much bigger by so consistently beating them to the punch that they would back off, show confusion, change tactics, etc.. Povetkin did none of that. He started moving forward and punching from the opening bell and never stopped. The punch stats at the end of the fight bore out the obvious: when Chambers punched, he was far more effective. His percentage of punches landed to thrown was off the chart, but compared to the number of punches Povetkin threw (not landed), it was paltry.

Now...I should mention that I don't put much stock in punch stats. I think they are something of an unfortunate nod to the viewer who wants statistics to back up his impressions (and who isn't watching the fight). I believe that we can't escape the subjective nature of the scorecard as much as sometimes we would like to and the punch stat tries to quantify the unquantifiable. It does not measure effective aggression or clean punches versus glancing blows. It does not reward ring generalship. It coldly puts the range-finding jab on a par with the consciousness-separating left hook. It tells so little of the story that it can never be more than an interesting factoid (rather than the confirming or telling force it is too frequently considered by commentators).

That said...in a way, the punch stats told the tale here: Povetkin threw so much that he just took over the fight. He never really landed a blow that got Chambers in trouble, so in that way he didn't deserve the win more than Chambers, but the reason he got it is that he so clearly wanted it more. Chambers caught most, if not all, of Povetkin's punches on his gloves, but Povetkin never let him breathe. I had it 117-111 by the end, matching one of the three judges. The other two had it for Povetkin 119-109 and 116-112.

Now...what's next? Povetkin loses to Klitschko. Simple. Unless Klitshko comes unprepared, he will keep Povetkin at range with his long and very heavy jab and drop that right hand in on him until he retires or the final bell rings. With his undefeated record at stake, Povetkin will probably absorb quite a beating before he falls, if he falls at all. I suspect he will. He was swelling up under Chambers' clean shots through round five (after which the shots rather inexplicably stopped coming), but against Klitschko those shots will be literally twice as hard and the range-finding jab is a tooth-rattler. Under Emmanuel's stewardship, Klitschko now also does a good job of hiding his hammering right hand in behind his jab and Povetkin is definitely there to be hit.

He has almost no chance against Klitschko. Povetkin is a tough guy (who dispatched the aging Byrd to get to Chambers) who clearly has a big heart. That won't matter against Klitschko because Povetkin, for all his willingness and relative technical skill (he moves okay laterally, bends at the waist to avoid punches, uses both hands and is a very experienced and accomplished amateur), he doesn't appreciably offer angles, he doesn't surprise or change speeds and he doesn't appear to have flash knockout power. He has the kind of thudding, plodding power that overcomes by will. He's undersized against Klitschko and their skills are at least evenly matched.

As for Wladimir Klitschko, I think he is undercredited for his mental game. By that I mean, this is a guy who endured and overcame the worst kind of defeats a boxer can suffer. He was knocked out on the world stage...convincingly. He was heralded (somewhat unfairly, since he was too untested) as the future of the heavyweight division, then dismissed by nearly all when he was knocked out so dramatically. What he hasn't gotten enough credit for in the aftermath is internalizing that losing...even dramatically...is not the end of a career for a fighter who wants to keep fighting for a living. In fact, the pressure of never having lost can become a huge burden for a fighter who succeeds in wading into deep water, then is toppled by the inevitable wave. He seems to have meaningfully learned one of the most valuable lessons a fighter can learn...that fighters lose...and that great fighters get up, prepare, study, improve and get back in there. He seems to have matured before our eyes and I think he still has yet to fully get the credit he has already earned.

He is by far the best heavyweight fighting today, unquestionably the class of the division and only Sam Peter stands between him and complete domination of the division. That he beat Peter in one of his toughest tests...dominating him except for the three times that he was on the seat of his pants...is another testament to how good he is. Sam Peter and his potential (a glimpse of which we can hope we saw when he adapted to clearly outbox the foxy James Toney) is a subject for another day.

As an aside, Max Kellerman proposed the possibility of Oscar DeLa Hoya taking on Roy Jones at a catchweight. I've always liked Max as an announcer and I still do...but that kind of silliness tends to undermine one's opinion in a pundit. Oscar would be as foolish as Trinidad to take that fight and if there's one thing that's become clear, it's that Oscar is not a fool...and certainly not the fool that Trinidad is. While Oscar would surely acquit himself well, I cannot imagine he would have any interest in putting himself through the Hopkins fight again. Let's all repeat it together so Trinidad can hear: the reason you were best at 154 is because that's your natural physical ceiling...the reason Jones was best at 175 ...you get the idea. Could DeLa Hoya muscle up? He'd do a better job of it than Tito, but no. Jones is more comfortable heavier. Max...please don't waste airtime with that kind of foolishness. If you can't think of something to say, then with all due respect...stay quiet. You are a better boxing analyst than that and for those of us who are paying attention, saying nothing is in fact better than holding forth stupidly.

A final note on Fast Eddie. I sure hope he listens to Max' suggestion that he trim down to Cruiserweight and dominate that division. I know he won't. But I wish he would because a fighter as good as he is deserves to shine...and that is something he'll never do against the upper echelon of the heavyweight division, even in these relatively lean times.

Snooze Flash: Jones outpoints Trinidad

At least a fight broke out on fight night. That's among the few good things that can be said about this foregone conclusion of a matchup between Roy Jones, Jr. and Felix "Tito" Trinidad. Trinidad reminded me of why I always considered him a dirty fighter with no ability to adapt and Jones reminded me of why he was almost unwatchable, even at his peak. Watching them come out at the bell prompts wonder at what might have been had they fought six years ago...but then again, not only would the result have been identical, but it still would have been the boxing equivalent of a tree falling in the woods.

Once they warmed up after round one, Trinidad tested Jones below the beltline and finding referee Arthur Mercante, Jr. a weak mark, proceeded to hammer Jones low for the next five rounds until Mercante finally actually warned him (beyond the absurdly ineffectual "keep 'em up, Tito!"). Meanwhile, Jones seemed completely unfazed by Tito's fouling and put on the earmuffs so much that you'd have thought it was snowing in the ring. Through five, Jones clearly understood his advantage in speed and while Tito bounced low blows off Jones' beltline, he was countered with clean punches. Because Trinidad held his own at first, he offered a fool's hope that he could match up effectively in the long haul and Jones' tentativeness lost him rounds 2 and 3, but on my card Jones never dropped another round and in fact, dropped Tito twice.

In round 7, a clean right hand to the temple of Trinidad put him down. He stood with wobbly legs and way too much time left in the round, but Jones refused to endanger himself to finish the job. Instead of jumping in and destroying the clearly shaky Trinidad in the first 10 seconds after the knockdown, he picked his shots and while he threw decisively...he didn't try to finish him. Trinidad got his bearings after 20 seconds or so and the opportunity passed as Tito tried to prove he was unhurt by throwing back. Jones threw up his guard and the promise of the knockout was gone. Tito went down again in the tenth, but wasn't in nearly as much danger. Fatigue and a lapse in footwork played at least as much a part in the knockdown as Jones' punch. Trinidad appeared game to the end, but only when contrasted with Jones' pick-your-punch counterpunching earmuff style. Those who tuned in got to see a bit of Jones' trademark hip-shifting taunting swagger and mugging here and there, but only once he felt he was out of danger. It smacked of an oldies concert, the crowd roars it's approval when they hear the opening notes of the old standard they came to hear performed live. Meanwhile, for his part Trinidad spent much of the latter half of the fight ineffectually bouncing punches off Jones' guard, seeming not to grok that repeating the same actions with the same result is the hallmark of insanity.

This reminded me of the Jones of old: willing to win on the cards. While at his peak, his otherwordly speed gave him such an advantage that he could afford to do rely on the cards, his lack of a finisher's style slowed his ascent to superstardom until he was in his mid-thirties before he could enjoy it. His fall from grace was so sudden that it caused us all to wonder if we'd been deceived. Max Kellerman of HBO offered the mildly plausible explanation that apparently Jones himself has offered for his three dramatic knockout losses: that muscling up to fight heavyweight John Ruiz, then coming back down to 175 cost him physically and that he fought too quickly afterward to try to regain ground (irrevocably) lost. I don't buy it. His speed was phenomenal. He was way too fast for everyone he fought and he nurtured crowd-pleasing bad boxing habits. Then he got old. And in against good fighters, he got caught and dropped.

He had no worries against Trinidad, though. This Trinidad came in pudgy, but prepared to fight. He gave a good effort for what was an inevitable losing cause. Looking at the two at a prefight press conference when they stood nose to nose, it was interesting that they are in fact virtually the same height. It lead me to ask myself, then why did Trinidad fight most successfully at 154 while Jones was always at 175? A look at their unadorned torsos tells the story. Jones looks like a bodybuilder with muscled shoulders, neck and arms and six-pack abs while Tito...well...he's slight shouldered, long necked and (for this fight at the catchweight of 170) soft in the middle. The way Tito prepared for this fight (apparently unconcerned about making weight...he missed it, but Jones said let's fight anyway) there was no other conclusion. Tito didn't muscle up, he just got his wind back. He was presentable, nothing more. What did we expect? Tito to put in more effort than that? He woudn't be Tito if he had.

Announcer Kellerman proposed at about round 9 (since the fight wasn't a blowout...which is not exactly an endorsement) that if the fight was well-recieved and financially successful, that the winner might face Joe Calzaghe. By that point, Jones was well in control and it was clear he wasn't taking any chances...so Calzaghe v. Jones? For Jones' sake, let's hope not. I'd actually tune that one in, but Calzaghe's work rate would absolutely stun Jones. Jones, like Peter Manfredo, wouldn't have time to think about his counterpunching, let alone execute it. And while Calzaghe may too age right before our eyes, that's probably a year or two away, even if he ages at the same time Jones did. Even in that case, Calzaghe's game is different from Jones. He's far more technically sound and conventional, if a lesser puncher. He doesn't leave gaps where his chin is completely unguarded, relying on his reflexes to avoid punches without the use of his gloves a la Jones. He doesn't drop his hands to his sides and rely on angles of retreat and mongoose tactics to defend. If that fight happens, Calzaghe wears down Jones and puts him away late or decisions him rather soundly, little question. Jones has never exhibited a willingness to stand and throw, leaving caution to the wind in an effort to assert his dominance. He won't develop that at this stage and certainly not against Calzaghe. Even if he did, it probably wouldn't do him any good. At this stage, he has the speed to outdistance a ring-rusty Trinidad but not to get in with the late prime Calzaghe. Not anymore. Not even close.

One last note on the voiced opinion that Trinidad v. DeLa Hoya will eventually happen, when both fighters have exhausted all other options. I think that unless Trinidad agrees soon, Oscar should tell him to go pound sand. Trinidad has shot his stock in the game now and he's been exposed. In fact, Oscar is the one who exposed him, even if it was in a tacitly losing cause. While it's common knowledge that this is the fight that Oscar has long wanted more than any other, Tito's cowardice in refusing the huge money it would offer in order to hold that tainted decision over his head, while blowing the equity of his formerly hall of fame career so stupidly ought be rewarded with naught. I would watch it now because Oscar would blow him out...and Tito knows it. That's why it'll never happen.

As for this main event, I didn't buy it, as promised. I waited for the replay. I have no idea if it was a financial success, but I imagine it didn't do too badly because on fight night, even I was mildly tempted. It's easy to be drawn in by the promise on fight night. But with a fight like this one...if I buy it, I always get PPV buyer's remorse even before the fight begins because I know the outcome already...but I lie to myself to get to see it happen live. I want Don King to be telling the truth. Now...if you don't check yourself when that's the case, then there's no help for you. I did and having viewed it after-the-fact, I'm glad I did. While I'll admit that a fight broke out, it was never more than the foregone conclusion I knew it would be. 118-107 Jones on my card.

A case for and against George Foreman

Who doesn't like Big George? He's just a cuddly big ol' teddy bear now, right? Religion and time have so softened his hard edges that he almost seems a wise elder reborn from the ashes of that angry bully of his youth. I'm not fooled. While I respect George Foreman's craft, his punch, his toughness and the way he adapted his boxing style to protect himself in his reincarnation, the re-made big George is the same as he ever was. Let's go to the films.

Big George should have been disqualified repeatedly for shoving his opponents, particularly in his "first" career. In some fights it's so obvious that I'm left hollering impotently at a fight that took place thirty years ago, "stop him, ref?!?" A man would get too close and George would bounce him off with two open hands over and over and when the man came back in, he would drop that right in on him. He used a range-finding shove...over and over and over. Find that in the rule books. You'll find it between "range-finding jab" and "not boxing." Later in his career, it evolved into the cross-handed turtle shove, but that at least disguised it. Whatever it was, it was not boxing and he should have been warned and docked points for doing it. The championship fights may be 3 rounds shorter these days, but the rules otherwise remain unchanged and they certainly didn't contemplate that kind of bullying that George routinely doled out. Were referees of that day too intimidated by big George to tell him to stop? He would set up his knockouts this way...two-handed shove, bounce, big right...goodbye.

That said, there can be little question that George had (in both careers), the heaviest hands perhaps ever seen in the heavyweight division. The kind of thudding power that changes a fight instantly. Superstar power. Ask Michael Moorer. Ok, don't because judging by the interviews I've seen, he's not too happy talking about it. Go ask Joe Frazier. In fact, go ask Ali. He never fought George again, did he?

While Ali deserves credit for beating big George at his height, removing the legends' "zero" from his record, taking his heavyweight title and beating the seemingly unbeatable...George didn't get knocked out by Ali. George got knocked down...but not out. He was up with his knees and hands off the canvas at the count of eight and the ref waved it off. Could Ali have finished him? probably. We'll never get to know. I've watched that fight over and over and Ali was unquestionably getting the better of Foreman, picking his spots in between barrages and landing effectively. George went down not only because he was tired and punched out, but also because he had been hit hard. It was Ali's night, but if the champ was allowed to rise, would he have survived? Could he have caught his breath, survived to round's end, regrouped and continued to wear Ali down? It's true that Ali didn't look that worn, but another few rounds of beating on those arms from big George in his prime and Zeus himself would run. He still had seven rounds to do it. He deserved the chance.

I'll admit that despite myself, I like George's re-made pitchman persona. That his smile could be so obviously plastered on, his humility so forced and trite and his banter so bland and still be likable is a testament to his unwavering dedication to his choice. In fact, for my money the only times he was really great as an announcer in that third career was during the fight when his observations were keen and untempered by his constant vigilance over his persona. As an aside, I'm glad that Emmanuel Steward has abandoned the clearly copied grimace from his onscreen appearances. Steward still plays politics, but since he's an active trainer (and so has legitimate reason to occasionally avoid controversy), he can be forgiven.

George richly deserves his place in the pantheon. He was a very tough fighter. We only need watch him against Ron Lyle to know that. He was an exciting fighter. He was always looking to dispatch his opponent spectacularly...in his first career, particularly...though in his second career his killer instinct was blunted by his inability to reach his opponents with his power. But he did himself a disservice by his bullying style, a style that should have cost him more points during his early career. Watch Joe Frazier bounce off his two handed shoves...before bouncing onto and off of the canvas seven times...okay not the best example, but a range-finding shove is NOT a range-finding jab. They let him get away with it, but that didn't ever make it right. It's boxing, not shove-boxing.

Joe Calzaghe, PPV fights and ruminations

I'm reviewing the Ring top ten supermiddleweights and I should lead in by saying that Joe Calzaghe has proven himself to me. While I doubt very much Joe was staying up nights sweating my approval, I am in my own way representative of the American fight fan (the North American fight fan, anyway). Winning us over has long been one of Joe's aims, although he's certainly taken the long way round to do it: fighting practically only ever at home in Wales. Now, I can hardly blame him now that I see what a huge draw he is there. He's a rock star, but he was a big fish in a small pond for a very long time. I give him credit for believing in himself and his talent as compared the fighter pool in the world at large that he had such faith that the world would eventually have to come to him. We hardcore fans have. That said, he hasn't drawn the casual fight fan quite as easily. That his superfight against the aptly still highly ranked Mikkel Kessler showed on regular pay cable and not pay-per-view is a testament to that.

Joe's destruction of Jeff Lacy put us on notice and he's been similarly impressive since (he underperformed once, but every fighter is human and it's tough to get up for every fight, especially when the competition isn't uniformly top caliber...and he still won). The Manfredo fight was stopped a terrible stoppage, but noone who watched it thought Manfredo stood a chance after watching it for just a few minutes...so what's the point of complaining. The hometowning grates against my sense of justice, but it's not for Manfredo that I cringe but for fairness...because Manfredo acquitted himself so dismally that night as to fail to merit my championing his cause. Joe would've obviously just used his head for shoeshine practice all night long. Showing that next gear against Kessler was the final act to establish himself as worthy of his Ring championship belt, a belt he'd worn in my mind loosely even after exposing Lacy because well...maybe he just had the right style. No. He's the real deal. A pound-for-pound top ten fighter.

On a different topic, I'll admit that when I saw the second half of '07 included this and a couple of other dream fights (Taylor/Pavlik and Vasquez/Marquez II, for two) on premium, but not pay-per-view, I could hardly believe my good fortune. And while the kind of matchmaking that ended 'o7 seems to be continuing on into '08 (the aforementioned two fights going again, for starters), I wonder whether that bodes well for boxing that a bunch of truly great fights can't draw pay-per-view. I do note that one of those two rematches is indeed going PPV, but a laundry list of upcoming already-made fights are not: Klitschko/Ibragimov; Maskaev/Peter; Casamayor/Katsidis; Dawson/Johnson. Okay, so these aren't all great fights and I'm not saying I'd pay for them all, but put them together on a couple of reasonably priced PPVs and I'd buy them.

Which brings me to another beef: why didn't ESPNs fantastic idea of lesser priced PPV cards catch on? Why can't HBO or Showtime give us multiple "lesser" matches with good fighters for less than $49.95 or $54.95? Packed cards with three or four great fights for $24.95? It'd be easy to put three or four FNF main event caliber fights together in a row on a given night and while none of the names would draw alone, if they each drew significantly from their own geographic areas and drew in hardcore fight nuts like me, I'd think it would make money! In a way, I shouldn't complain because of course I have both channels and specifically for their boxing programming, but if better multiple match PPVs were put together, I can't be the only one who would buy them. Again, kudos to ESPN for being ahead of their time. Apparently so far ahead that it isn't coming around again...but that's just a shame.

A Modest Proposal: DelaHoya v. Spinks; Forrest v. Mayorga

Let's face it. Oscar DelaHoya can have any fight he wants within range of his weight, perhaps short of automatically getting Mayweather back in the ring. In reviewing the most recent Ring ratings, I see that Oscar's now ranked 3rd at 154. Unless my recollection fails me, that means he can fight the #1 ranked Cory Spinks and become the Ring champion at 154. That's a goal worth pursuing.

After all, does anyone really think that Oscar is a lesser fighter than Roman Karmazin or Cory Spinks? In fact for my money, the most dangerous fighter in the top five is the reinvigorated Vernon Forrest. Forrest has looked devastating in his return from shoulder surgery, believably claiming that his pre-surgery decline should be blamed on favoring the shoulder when he should have taken time off to repair it. Sure that sounds like a convenient excuse...until you see how dominating he has looked in his return, including a thorough trouncing of the once-overrated, but now-underrated Carlos Baldomir.

The point is that Oscar ought to jump at the chance to knock off Spinks before Forrest leapfrogs him and stakes his claim. Forrest is the much tougher fight and if Oscar wants to test himself again after Spinks he may want Forrest (who, while not the best draw in boxing, does have a reputation and a name). Meanwhile, I'm sure drawing Mayorga back into the ring to avenge his only defeats is first on Forrest's list, so this could all work out nicely.

As for Oscar, he would have his way with either Karmazin or Spinks and frankly latter is probably the easier fight. Spinks is a light-hitting defensive fighter who, while he shouldn't be underestimated, can be beaten every time out by a boxer of Oscar's caliber, specifically a great fighter who can bring real skilled pressure and pain. The main argument against it must be that Spinks is a true bore and carries little drawing power outside of his native St. Louis. However, this is Oscar we're talking about and he draws pay-per-views like moths to a flame. He crosses demographics, pulls in starwatchers and realfightfans alike and always comes prepared. His pay-per-view take won't suffer all that much by taking on Spinks at this point because people flat out come out to watch him fight. Even though Spinks is almost always guaranteed to bring the snooze...I think Oscar can force him to fight.

Here's my pitch to Mr. DelaHoya: you need a break from fighting superfights, but you don't want to be accused of taking worthless fights unless they're tuneups. This could be both. Since no true superfight is on the horizon, you need a legit opponent and a goal. You also need a guy who's going to challenge you. Spinks is that guy. He will actually embarass you if you don't come fully prepared. But...if you bring the pain, he will crumble. Now...whether you want to (or can bring yourself to) train like that with all those millions in the bank and a silk bathrobe on your back every morning is another story. Here's why you should: you know you're not done fighting. You're at the peak of your earning power, your speed is still good, your footwork is there and your left still breaks ribs, especially when delivered to a fighter at a fairly comparable weight. There's a lifetime of watching other guys fight ahead of you and you'll not risk any IQ points fighting Cory Spinks. That said...if there's a guy looking to make a reputation on you, it's Spinks. And he can fight, make no mistake. You got in that crazy shape for Floyd, right? Bring that same fight plan to Cory and watch him crumble. Here's my proposed card: Forrest v. Mayorga and DelaHoya v. Spinks. That will draw a huge crowd and some major buzz. You get your Ring belt in the process and continue to legitimize that one true belt. That you'll have to pay to have the belt made and delivered is a post for another day.

Senior Tour Boxing: Jones v. Trinidad

Welcome to the masters version of boxing. In a fight that might've been interesting 5 years ago, Roy Jones is set to demolish Tito Trinidad on January 19th, 2008. At this writing, it's set for next weekend and while I'm starved for boxing, I'm very unlikely to buy this pay-per-view event. Now...I can daydream and conjure a reason to tune in, but whenever I do that, I'm inevitably disappointed. But let's try.

Felix Trinidad always comes to fight. He's a puncher, who while slowed by age and a few wars is not so far past his prime that he'll fail to come out throwing. Or so the theory goes. On the other hand, Jones is trying to remake himself at 38. Having relied on otherwordly quickness in his prime, age (seemingly suddenly) robbed him of his advantage. He aged right before our eyes and was exposed and publicly destroyed in a way few truly great fighters ever have been. Now he's boxing more, taking fewer chances and resigning himself (and prepared, for sake of his legacy) to take a little more punishment. This means he knows that in order to win, he has to engage a little more than he did when he could pose, slip and counterpunch his way to easy decisions. That he'll engage more means more action and more excitement with the always coming forward Trinidad. There's also the argument that at the catchweight of 170, Jones will be diminished enough at fight time to even the otherwise significant advantage he naturally has in size. The argument continues that in the fight game at this level, those small advantages (or disadvantages) grow large because the margin for error is so small. That's all baloney, of course.

First of all, Jones isn't a little stronger than Tito...he's a lot stronger. The catchweight is much closer to his natural best career best weight of 175 than Tito's 160 (or arguably 154). At 170, Tito is likely to have the same roll around his middle that Winky Wright did against Bernard Hopkins. Like Winky (a far superior technical fighter than Tito, though far less exciting both winning and losing), Tito's going up in weight to try to take what he thinks is the best fight available to him is going to prove a mistake. Unlike Winky, Tito is going to get knocked out...and probably pretty spectacularly. Fighting at higher weights do not make fighters faster or stronger, usually. It makes them slower, winded and vulnerable. Tito didn't fight at 5 or 10 pounds heavier because that is not now or ever was his best natural weight. Meanwhile, Jones is likely to be sharp as a razor at 170 (and probably blown up over night to the 182 range), while Tito will probably tip in at a sluggish 172 at fight time. If Trinidad bulks up by weightlifting (a la Jones v. Ruiz), it would be the first time...and...it would be huge mistake. He won't. Muscle will slow him down. He also won't gain lean muscle the way the obsessive Hopkins did...Tito is way too self-satisfied for that.

In fact, I'll be surprised if Tito lasts past the 7th round. I'd say a 5th round TKO. Tito has exhibited ring rust virtually every time he's come out of each of his ridiculous retirements (the next of which we can hope is finally permanent...unless it's against Oscar DelaHoya...that, I would watch and it may happen once Tito realizes there are noone else sees him as a draw any more and DelaHoya still wants him...and he will). He is still living on his ever-diminishing reputation as a multi-division champ and Puerto Rico's darling. I can only presume that his handlers (led apparently by his dad) are the problem. They aren't quelling his delusion that he can come out of retirement once or twice every few years and still compete at an elite level. Not only has he been replaced by Miguel Cotto as P.R.'s favorite fighter (and Cotto is a better fighter to have as their favorite son), but his failure to stay active is going to cost him dearly against Jones. Meanwhile, not only does Jones already have a significant size advantage, but he's at least as quick as Trinidad (at this age), he punches harder, punches from angles and most importantly he's been in the ring this past year. While the level of opposition he's dispatched has been of the hand-picked variety (Prince and Hanshaw), they were both legitimate guys with decent records (Hanshaw was undefeated) and they kept Jones sharp, restored his confidence and letting him work on re-dedicating himself to the basics of his profession.

Trinidad on the other hand, one can only assume, has been sitting and watching tapes of Jones being stopped cold by journeyman great Glen Johnson and great-too-late Antonio Tarver and convinced himself that he punches as hard and is as schooled. No way. What made Roy easy pickings for Tarver and Johnson was that Roy believed his own hype. Caught up in his years of being regarded as the pound-for-pound best in the world, his Nike contract and his rap career (did you think we forgot, Roy?), he failed to recognize that his style, borne of his superior athletic talent, had allowed him for years to rely on his quickness and speed and overcome his stylistic shortcomings. Most boxers, even the elite, aren't so much quicker than their opponents at every level as they step up boxing's ladder of competition that they can literally put their chins in front of their opponents, back away (a cardinal sin that Ali got away with for years...don't ask about Henry Cooper) and counterpunch in combination. Roy failed to understand that once his reflexes dulled a fraction and he came up against sound technicians, he would be hit...and hard. He learned, then relearned that lesson before our eyes. I for one am glad he's clawed his way back on to the scene and can honestly say I didn't expect him to. That's not to say I think he's the fighter he was or he ever will be again...he's not and he won't. But he was really as good as he was touted to be for those years on top of his division and the concensus pound-for-pound rankings and to see him brought so low, so hard almost disrespects us all. So I root for Jones to redeem himself and his legacy enough so that the argument can be made that he was good enough to remake himself. It remains to be seen whether he can remake himself enough to compete with the top of his division. I doubt that. Too much of the old unconventional Roy remains. He drops his hands way too much, he's out of position too much and his footwork is poor. In a way, I hope he retires after destroying Trinidad because that's as far as he can realistically go. If pummelling Trinidad emboldens him, unless he has a stylistic epiphany on the order of George Foreman, when he gets in with a Hopkins or a Calzaghe he'll get embarrassed again.

As for Trinidad, he clearly considers himself a fighter who's so big that he only has to take big fights. Well...while there are fighters like that (hi Oscar), even they stay busy enough not to get embarassingly rusty and they take tune-up fights (and no, Mayorga does not count). Trinidad was solved by Oscar DelaHoya (who was unquestionably robbed that night, although there is some mob justice in not allowing him to so literally take off the last three rounds) as a guy who you have to walk down and box very well to beat. Jones isn't really that guy, so there's a glimmer of hope there...but the natural size difference (to Jones' advantage) and speed factor (equal or to Jones' advantage) makes it very unlikely the result will be anything other than a big win for Roy. I suppose if Jones is tentative and backs up, then Tito can wade in with big shots, stun him and put him away.... There I go...wishing for a fight where there is none. Jones in the fifth, the seventh at the latest. If Jones doesn't engage for fear of being knocked out (cautious to preserve his legacy-salvaging win, we'll call it), then Jones by decision.

Friday Night Fights/Contender - January 11, 2008

If there was ever a question that it's a mistake to depart from the blueprint laid out by now-undisputed middleweight champ Kelly Pavlik for beating Columbian power puncher Edison Miranda, it was mooted this night. Watching the lead-in to this fight, the typical pre-fight interview with David Banks told the story. Banks effectively said, "I'm more of a slick fighter and I'm going to use my jab, move and stick..." I called out to my wife (who thankfully more than tolerates my obsession with the sweet science): "wanna come watch a guy get his block knocked off? He's won't last three rounds...." As God is my witness, I called this out to her. She declined, having more important things to do than to watch a fight where I thought a lamb was determined to dance to slaughter.

You might recall David Banks as the preening early attention-getter from the most recent Contender. He didn't last in the ring during the show and the Contender kept up it's dismal showing relative to the upper echelon of the divisions in which it's fighters have participated. In fact, if you'll forgive the digression, I think that Cornelius "K-9" Bundrage actually has acquitted himself best of all the fighters we've seen come out of the series when he took an 8 round beating on a FNF against the elite-looking (at least that night) Joel Julio outside the ESPYs last year. Sergio Mora has dodged elite fighters at every opportunity and continues to pad his record against mediocre opposition, clearly afraid of being exposed by the best in his division. That Mora was briefly ranked at the bottom of the Ring top ten was a testament to the lack of focus of the voting contingent on the effect of the short Contender fights and the talent gap between the assembled group and the upper echelon of the division. As for the popular and charismatic Alfonso Gomez, having a thoroughly shot Arturo Gatti as your signature win speaks for itself. With all due respect to the warrior's courage of Gatti, he was never better than a gatekeeper fighter later in his career and by the time he climbed in with Gomez, you could stick a fork in him. Gomez is a game undercard guy with a good chin, but he'll never do more than please the crowd and lose to good B level opposition. I'd tune in to see him fight, but only if I knew Gomez' opponent was not a guy who could crack the Ring top ten (mistakes like Mora notwithstanding). Let's not bother to discuss Peter Manfredo.

Now...back to David Banks and his disastrous strategy.... I should say first that saying that Kelly Pavlik laid out the blueprint to beat Edison Miranda (with the implication that every fighter who gets in the ring with Miranda should follow it) is like saying that a trigonometry problem should be a snap because Good Will Hunting solved it. In fact, following that blueprint to beating Miranda is probably still as disastrous for 95% of the fighters in the division as trying to dance your way to a decision. Nevertheless, there usually aren't too many proven ways to beat talented rough heavyhanded guys like Miranda, as long as their confidence hasn't been eroded by their having been effectively solved (and very much to his credit, it appears Miranda's confidence remains high). However, choosing so clearly to depart from the formula seems to be so likely to result in disaster that one wonders how a fighter with so little strategic sense got a shot against a legit contender like Miranda. Can you say television exposure?

Since I've not actually elucidated the blueprint yet, I will paraphrase Kelly Pavlik after his knockout of Miranda. It is of note that Pavlik speaks of himself in the third person using the royal "we" and manages still to come off humble: "we had a strategy coming in to keep him moving backwards because he doesn't fight well off his heels and we executed that strategy and it all worked out...." Pavlik was recounting a great strategy for moving a power puncher out of his comfort zone by not only never letting him get set to punch, but also refusing to allow him to move forward, gain momentum and confidence (see intimidate). There's no question it's a sound strategy against a power puncher. The problem in execution is that the power puncher is trying to set and throw the whole time and in the face of one punch knockout power like Miranda's, it's like charging machine gun fire. With machine gun fire, fear of the deafening roar of the fusillade and the anticipated effect of the bullets is as likely to cause you to get into the line of fire as the good aim of the gunner. David Banks decided that he would be able to dodge the bullets all night long.

To be fair, he mightn't have lasted a round aping Pavlik's approach, so maybe this was his only chance. So basically he had no chance. He did last the first two rounds, dancing side to side and sticking the jab as he'd predicted. He made Miranda look tentative and Teddy Atlas rightly observed that the movement was preventing Miranda from setting to punch. If Banks could have kept it up for 10 full rounds, he could have walked away with a decision. That would have required the kind of focus that Banks clearly lacked. Frankly, had he actually been more focused on preventing the inevitable he probably would have lasted to round 8 or so, when Miranda would have roughed him up and dropped him with body blows. Mercifully, it didn't last. Banks backed straight out with his left hand low in the middle of the third round and Miranda threw a straight right hand that put Banks literally through the ropes. Banks crumpled backward and to his right and managed to fall between the second and third rope and in doing so was laid perfectly splaid out and suspended so his heels bounced on the canvas as the patrons at the ring apron seemed to scramble to keep him from sliding out onto their laps. It was a highlight reel knockout. From that position (where he was allowed to stay for a few moments too long for my taste before the ref picked up the count), Banks actually managed to struggle to his feet at about the count of a rather slow ten. He was out on his feet and the fight was well stopped.

David Banks was no test for Miranda, but probably an excellent confidence builder as Miranda heads toward Jean Pascal, who decisioned a game but overmatched Philly fighter earlier in the night. He'll handle the undefeated Pascal by round 8 when they meet and get back into the real mix where he belongs soon enough. Pascal got stunned during the course of his decision win and he's posturing for Miranda post-fight, a sure sign that he's as intimidated as he should be. As for my opinion of Miranda, he belongs fighting at the top of the division. He's a rough and tumble fighter who fouls too much and is tough to like (and tough to watch) sometimes, but his will and punching power put him in an elite class of fighters. Even Pavlik, who is the best in the division right now (and not just because he has the belts), probably wouldn't look forward to fighting him again. I suspect he'll have to though, because Miranda doesn't look like he's going away. That's good news for fans of the big punch. Miranda will likely continue to expose every tentative, unfocused or even slighly flawed fighter he faces (and hopefully not foul and bore too much against the very best and bravest) and be around knocking out guys for another 5 or 10 years. Just ask Allan Green. I'll save my kudos for the FNF crew for another day, save to say that Friday Night Fights is the best show in television today and the appreciation I have for the effort that goes into it knows no bounds.

One Man's Case for Marciano

I spent some time today in the company of a man who sees his own life drawing to a close. He told me that "when [the reaper] taps my shoulder and says it's time to go, I'll say I'm packed, let's go...." We had some business to transact, but in the midst of that we talked about a lot of things and for a time, our talk turned to boxing. It turns out this man was a part of a 1951 Gold Glove winning Navy boxing team. He described his fighting days, talked whistfully of a pair of brothers one of whom trained the other and warned me and my infant son off of boxing because of the unbelievable headaches he'd experienced on Saturdays after Friday night fights at the armory. He showed me a team photo and a sturdy stoic 19 year old MP (whom he had to point out to me) gazing out from the group photo of boxers. That young stud was nearly unrecognizable to me in the now-infirm lifelong union pipefitter who stood before me. It caused me to contemplate time and age's merciless undressing of us all from the glory of our youth and to reflect a bit on how it waits for us all...if fate allows.

His eyes sparkled when he volunteered his take on the all time greats. He told me that Marciano would've licked Louis, even in his prime and that he would've outfought Ali. I wasn't prepared to dispute it, nor am I equipped. Instead, I listened. After all, I've watched the fighters on film, but comparing styles, power, toughness and talent across generations is a tricky business and though I do it for amusement, I never had the benefit of watching all three of these fighters as they plied their trade. He had. With all the intensity he could muster, he touched my arm and looked me squarely in the eyes and twice repeated, never looking away, "he was a brute...an absolute animal." He told me the story of a man he knew who'd claimed to have fought Marciano and knocked him down. This man, he told me, described this as the biggest mistake he could have made, as Marciano apparently rose to mercilessly pummel him for his trouble.

I wonder can film study or even prose adequately impart the flavor or gravity of the real life experience of having lived in a boxer's time or of having seen a boxer fight? Surely not, though we are left to it inevitably as time unmercifully robs us of everyone who was there to see it live. There will always be arguments about the greatest fighters and the greatest heavyweights and they're no more likely to be settled today than ever before, but I can vouch for the resolute intensity of the opinion held by one man who knows fighing and who saw them all fight. There's also only ever been one undisputed heavyweight champion who retired undefeated. Marciano.

Ngoudjo exposes the "Magic" man

When I tune into Showtime, I expect to see second tier championship boxing. I definitely had my expectations fulfilled in watching Herman Ngoudjo batter Paulie "Magic Man" Malignaggi around the ring for fully 8 of 12 rounds. Not that the fight wasn't interesting or that it was a bad matchup, but the result (unanimous decision Malignaggi) was just unfair. The 8 rounds that I'm giving Ngoudjo here include 6 rounds that so clearly belonged to him that I can't see how anyone could have seen it otherwise. Ngoudjo had Malignaggi obviously in trouble at one point and stalked him relentlessly virtually the entire fight starting in round 3, when he figured out that the Magic Man's main trick this night was to stop punches with his face. Keep in mind that I tuned in to see Malignaggi outbox another blunt roughhouser, as he did Lovemore Ndou. Ngoudjo had other ideas.

At the outset, Malignaggi was snapping the jab and movingwell in the ridiculously outsized 20 foot ring that so clearly should have favored him. It looked to be a long night indeed for Ngoudjo where we could sit back and enjoy another boxing exhibition from Malignaggi. The Showtime piece favorably comparing Malignaggi to Willie Pep (or at least saying that "some" draw the comparison, that flatters Malignaggi) turned ironic by the fourth round, when Ngoudjo figured out not only that Malignaggi couldn't hurt him, but that his counterpunching was clearly as quick as Malignaggi's. While the Magic Man was clearly paying attention and making an effort, Ngoudjo was landing clean rights over the top of the jab and following Malignaggi in as he tried to back out after a jab or two to the body. I can't help but wonder why Buddy McGirt advocated a strategy of using jabs to break down the body of a marathoner like Ngoudjo (that's not a metaphor...they cited Ngoudjo's practically world class best marathon time of 2:32). Ngoudjo could have gone another 10 rounds, looked fresh all the way through and advanced so consistently and relentlessly that calling the fight the other way cries fix. Strangely, while Al Bernstein (the only worthwhile facet of most Showtime broadcasts) and I agreed, all three press row scorers and the actual judges all obviously had it rather lopsidedly for Malignaggi. When these things happen, I wonder if the judges aren't so thoroughly predisposed to believing in the superiority of one fighter that they can't see it another way. I came into the fight expecting Malignaggi to win, so perhaps my perspective when challenged by reality, swung hard the other way...but I feel certain I didn't so dramatically overcompensate such that I got four rounds wrong! (I had Ngoudjo taking the win by two rounds with at least one close round going to Malignaggi...the closest official score was a four round swing). At fight's end, Malignaggi looked every bit the battered fighter while Ngoudjo was untouched.

This seemed to me to clearly be a case of the judges favoring the fair skinned marketable boxer over the superior tougher native Cameroonian (who recently became a Canadian citizen evidently). Not to worry because Ngoudjo will be back (he was hardly the worse for wear, while the "Magic Man" looked truly beat up, swollen and bleeding from his left eye). Ngoudjo has only lost to Castillo by split decision and now in this robbery. The real tragedy would be Ngoudjo giving up or being shut out of continued title contention based on these kind of decisions. His style is rough and tumble (but every bit as quick as Malignaggi...something that I think stunned Malignaggi and which he could never psychologically get past) and he deserves a shot at a more legitimate belt than this dimestore IBF strap. The way to slow Ngoudjo will be to discourage him and make him go backward, because outquicking him won't work. Ngoudjo likely watched the Cotto fight and decided overhand rights and chasing Malignaggi when he tries to back out of the pocket was the best strategy...and it worked. Don't be fooled by the official scorecards. Chalk this one up as not only a loss for Malignaggi, but as proof of the template on how to beat him: come forward, jump in over his jab with a right hand and follow up with an accurate left hook, then keep coming as he tries to back, duck and dive away.

I give Malignaggi some credit for toughness and skill for sure, but having your biggest loss in which you suffered a fractured orbital bone and absorbed a tremendous beating be your calling card to the elite is a dubious qualification at best (the Cotto fight supposedly legitimized Malignaggi, when in fact it appears to have set the template that Ngoudjo followed). That said, with his mouth and his skin color he'll probably get some big fights sooner rather than later because he's proving so hittable and marketable at boxing's highest level. No wonder the IBF and Showtime couldn't have Ngoudjo win...they just signed Malignaggi on to a multi-fight deal! okay, so I don't know that...but it sure looks that way to me. One last note: shame on Al Bernstein for bailing out on his instincts so quickly when he saw the flawed press row scoring in about the 9th round...he showed all the backbone of Scooby Doo in a haunted house. You were right, Al. Own it.

Calzaghe Hopkins will be a snooze

This is one pay-per-view I'm not likely to buy, unless the boxing landscape is so inactive that I'm starving for a fight. This one has little potential for excitement. Calzaghe is forthcoming in the recent Ring excerpts from his book that he's a fan of the sweet science of hitting without being hit and that he doesn't need to prove his manhood by being carried out on a stretcher or going to war to please the fans. That's all well and good, but then don't schedule a fight with a defensive boxer who is so similarly unconcerned with pleasing the fans that it took him 10 title defenses to even get noticed by hardcore fans. Both of these guys have always been happy to let it go to the cards...which frankly is the only thing that makes it have any potential at all. To wit, with Hopkins aging and being an intelligent fighter, obsessive trainer and skilled tactician, it seems quite possible that he'll understand that he won't be able to keep up with the relatively fresh volume puncher Calzaghe...so he'll go after him. Maybe draw him in, turn him, turn him and bring his hands down with body blows, then batter him about. I think that's the one hope for a fight that all too likely is a tactical snooze fest with neither fighter letting his hands go while he's in the pocket. Hopkins smothers. Calzaghe enters, slaps and retreats. Repeat.

This one so likely goes to the cards for Calzaghe that it doesn't bear watching. Frankly, I don't feel so confident in that prediction that I'd bet on it...and it's tough to bet against Hopkins since he was still very legitimate at the elite level the last time out. But age catches us all and against a crafty volume puncher like Calzaghe with another gear in his arsenal, it's all too likely that Hopkins' age will show for the first time. Age erodes our reflexes every one and while Hopkins' game isn't based on his reflexes as much as his craft, against Calzaghe time will all too likely tell. Calzaghe by decision.