As I watch the immediate ramp-up to the fight, I appreciate Larry Merchant more every time I see him. I didn't always appreciate him, but once I learned that he was a ground floor investor in Joe Frazier's Cloverleaf investment group, I realized that he has wisdom and experience that I ought not be questioning. Like me, he described that three years ago he was "besotted" with Cristobal Arreola as a legitimately talented American heavyweight. He pled "guilty" to thinking (perhaps hoping) that Arreola has a better than the 5-1 oddsmakers shot that he's being given to beat Klitschko.
That 3 1/2 inch reach advantage is going to be tough for Arreola to overcome, especially given Klitschko's fighting style. Arreola is going to have to swarm Klitschko and endure some heavy shots coming in to have a chance. The lead-in implied that this will be his tack, given that his workrate is unusually high for a heavyweight. We will see. It's interesting to note how heavily pro-Arreola the Staples center Los Angeles is. I can't help but wonder why Klitschko agreed to fight this Mexican-American Heavyweight in such a heavily latino part of the world. He would easily have been able to fill a German stadium and such a crowd would have been equally pro-Klitschko. Interesting dynamic and I'm glad to see it. As boos rain down on the WBC heavyweight champion.... Nice to see a fight worth being excited about...and a heavyweight fight!
ROUND ONE - They come together. Klitschko stands tall and uses the jab. Arreola bobbing. Klitschko sticking the jab and Klitschko moving away. Arreola pursuing and ducking low to try to get under the guard, but not getting in. Arreola is throwing less halfway through. The round clock broken, so Jim Lampley giving us the time. Klitschko is keeping Arreola at arms length...and that is what makes him and his brother so tough. They make a good observation that Klitschko keeps his jabbing left hand low, bringing it up only to jab when necessary. Klitschko's round pretty easily, up 10-9
ROUND TWO - Klitschko sticking the jab and Arreola can't find anything to do. Arreola pins Klitschko's arm and digs a few shots to the beltline. Klitschko keeps Arreola at range and following up with an uppercut or two now and then. Arreolas' guard is high and he's chasing him...but Larry Merchant points out that Arreola not landing...but Klitschko is working harder than he wants to, according to Steward. Klitschko is leaning forward with his hands low almost taunting Arreola and Arreola not biting. Klitschko's round, going up 20-18.
ROUND THREE - Steward's observation is interesting and Klitschko looks a bit winded in his corner. I wonder if there is an opportunity there. Klitschko is punching much more than usual, according to the HBO crew...but now they are saying that Klitschko won't be bothered by the pace. Make up your mind! Klitschko dominating and moving and punching, jabbing and staying away. Klitscko better be in good shape because he is in fact having to move a lot. Arreola advancing but not throwing much. His guard remains high, but he doesn't look winded or hurt and Klitschko tends to look a little clunky at the two minute mark when he stumbles while still moving away. Certainly, Klitschko is moving and punching a lot more and Arreola is not punching. Merchant says that Arreola absorbing punishment will not allow him to outlast Klitschko because he's taking the worst of it. I hear that. 30-27 for Klitschko.
ROUND FOUR - Arreola still advancing and Arreola not opening up yet. Arreola making Klitschko move away and he does clunkily...but he does get away. Perhaps Arreola plans on wearing out Klitschko. Arreola is taking the distance away and it does start to look that way with a minute left...but Klitschko is still picking off the punches. Arreola making a go of it, but moving in with his guard up...but at this point, it's just not enough. Arreola not able to get past the length of Klitschko. A closer round, but still belongs to Klitschko 40-36.
ROUND FIVE - Klitschko doing the same thing. He and his brother are very similar in that they use their natural size to their advantage, though Vitali is more fluid...and even he is clunky and awkward as he moves away. He is not light on his feet...but light enough to get away. Klitschko looks mildly winded, but not seriously. With 40 seconds left, Klitschko's punchrate up and Arreola still waiting to throw and putting on the pressure. Arreola's hands are high and this round looks the same as the others, frankly. Klitschko again 50-45.
ROUND SIX - If Arreola is waiting to the late rounds, that's a gutsy strategy because Klitschko can stun Arreola at any time. So far, he hasn't...but a minute in, the fight isn't any different. Klitschko lands a body shot and Arreola advances, but not really punching. Areola lands and the crowd reacts. Klitschko looks like he felt it, but Klitschko keeps him off and Arreola is paying a high ongoing price for every landed punch. Even every thrown punch costs Arreola. Another round goes to Klitschko 60-54.
ROUND SEVEN - Arreola better pick up the pace even more if he wants to see Klitschko affected because Klitschko seems okay. He looks to be in shape. Lederman points out that Klitschko could be warned for holding and the HBO crew disagrees, but it's a legitimate point. With a minute left, it's the same fight. In the last round, the HBO team pointed out that Klitschko's recent opponents have been noticeably discouraged by this point and Arreola is not...but for the first time I see Arreola going backward. A little flurry at round's end doesn't come close to tipping it for Arreola. Klitschko goes up further, pitching a shutout 70-63.
ROUND EIGHT - Thirty seconds in, the referee does indeed jump in a little early considering that they weren't clinching. Arreola lands and Klitschko grabs. The ref is late in on this Klitschko initiated clinch. Klitschko starting to hold and Arreola closing the gap. Arreola really in it for the first time. Klitschko moving away and hitting Arreola as he moves away with hard shots. A much closer round, but the clean shots definitely belonged to Klitschko, who goes up further 80-72.
ROUND NINE - Klitschko has his back against the ropes and Arreola is digging to the ribs. They are definitely engaging a lot, but Arreola is backing up a bit, then comes forward and not getting the best of it. While Arreola sees his opportunity, Klitchko keeps landing hard shots. If Arreola can overcome this disadvantage, he will have absorbed a lot of punishment to do it. Arreola is a mask of blood and Klitschko still jabbing, throwing his right in afterwards and moving away. With thirty seconds left, it's just the same. Klitschko looks in control and wins another round 90-81.
ROUND TEN - Arreola's corner tells him he has to "take some chances" and I wonder how he has anything left, considering that Klitschko has landed cleanly a LOT. With two minutes left, Klitscko is still sticking and moving. Steward says that Arreola, based on damage taken, can't be thinking well and is in danger of being knocked out. With a minute left, the fight looks the same. Klitschko throwing a jab followed by a right hand and he moves away. Arreola has no solution. A right hand from Klitschko lands solidly and Arreola shakes his head. No way it didn't hurt him. The round goes for Klitschko 100-90. On their stools between rounds, the referee is waving it off...TKO for Klitschko and it's a good stoppage...
Well...that's disappointing, though not surprising. I certainly hoped that Arreola could find some way to solve Vitali, but as I said in the prediction...a solid unafraid technician will beat a puncher (especially if he has a 3 1/2 inch reach advantage). This was a walkover. I wonder if Arreola, who is literally weeping in the ring, is so disappointed because he hoped that Klitschko would fade in the last two rounds, but I certainly didn't perceive any chance of that. Klitschko still looked strong.
Klitschko is classy in the post-fight interview, giving Arreola credit and calling him a future world champion. Arreola sets a record for crying and cursing in his post-fight interview. He admits he couldn't get to Klitschko, but there wasn't anything new learned there. Larry Merchant admits his hope for Arreola was "going out on...not a branch, or a twig...but a leaf." True enough...I was out there with you, Larry...but my money wouldn't have been. The Klitschko brothers do completely rule the heavyweight division. Predictably so.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Prediction: Klitschko v. Arreola
My recent record at predicting big fights hasn't been great, but since I'm not certain this qualifies as a big fight (except perhaps in the eyes of realfightfans...and I've been chomping at the bit for this one...a potentially action packed elite heavyweight matchup), I'd say I've got a decent shot.
Very recently, I've been carried away by the odds-defying ascent of Manny Pacquiao through the weight classes. I've picked an upset or two to apparently attempt to make some sense of the Pacquiao phenomenon. There's no making sense of it and picking against what I know to be true is folly. A good boxer (who doesn't have problems with intimidation) will beat a puncher or a brawler every time. He will make the lesser technician pay for every foray into the danger zone, keep out of trouble and be satisfied to win a decision handily on points (if the TKO doesn't come). The only thing that will change the equation is if the puncher is markedly quicker, as was the case with Pacman against DelaHoya. As a pertinent aside...on the strength of this simple analysis, the outcome of Mayweather v. Pacquiao becomes clear...which means that it will probably happen. This is because Mayweather only takes fights he will win...and that's why we won't see him in against Sugar Shane for another year or two, if ever. But I digress...
To apply this lesson to Klitschko/Arreola begs the question which between them is the superior technician. Well, I would lean toward Klitschko, though Arreola is a surprisingly good boxer. Arreola's problem is he lacks defense and leads with his face. He slips and moves a bit, has great power, punches in combination and is definitely a finisher...but he lacks defense and he leads with his face. Vitali is not the supersafe technician his brother has become, though it's kind of hard to judge what kind of fighter he is because he's fought so infrequently of late. He is technically sound and willing to mix it up. I perceive that he punches a bit harder than his brother (who doesn't exactly dole out love taps) and takes more chances than the bigger younger Klitschko, but he's a more natural boxer than Wladimir, more naturally ring savvy and more able to adapt to adversity.
Given the above, it seems possible that Vitali will take some chances and leave himself open for Arreola. That will give Arreola his puncher's chance. Can Arreola apply his boxing skills to make his own chance, if Vitali doesn't give it to him? Unlikely. The odds dictate that Vitali will keep Arreola at arms length, punish him when he attacks and wear him down. Arreola is a tough guy, proven resilient after knockdowns and able to adapt to some extent. That said, I doubt he has a solution for the Klitschko jab. I believe Klitschko will stay behind the jab, realizing that Arreola is indeed a threat and that Arreola will absorb a lot of leather. With Arreola's aggressiveness and desire, he will make a serious run at Klitschko as early as round two...but Klitschko will fend him off.
My heart says Arreola and I will be rooting for the USA fighter, but my head says Klitschko by TKO in round 8.
Very recently, I've been carried away by the odds-defying ascent of Manny Pacquiao through the weight classes. I've picked an upset or two to apparently attempt to make some sense of the Pacquiao phenomenon. There's no making sense of it and picking against what I know to be true is folly. A good boxer (who doesn't have problems with intimidation) will beat a puncher or a brawler every time. He will make the lesser technician pay for every foray into the danger zone, keep out of trouble and be satisfied to win a decision handily on points (if the TKO doesn't come). The only thing that will change the equation is if the puncher is markedly quicker, as was the case with Pacman against DelaHoya. As a pertinent aside...on the strength of this simple analysis, the outcome of Mayweather v. Pacquiao becomes clear...which means that it will probably happen. This is because Mayweather only takes fights he will win...and that's why we won't see him in against Sugar Shane for another year or two, if ever. But I digress...
To apply this lesson to Klitschko/Arreola begs the question which between them is the superior technician. Well, I would lean toward Klitschko, though Arreola is a surprisingly good boxer. Arreola's problem is he lacks defense and leads with his face. He slips and moves a bit, has great power, punches in combination and is definitely a finisher...but he lacks defense and he leads with his face. Vitali is not the supersafe technician his brother has become, though it's kind of hard to judge what kind of fighter he is because he's fought so infrequently of late. He is technically sound and willing to mix it up. I perceive that he punches a bit harder than his brother (who doesn't exactly dole out love taps) and takes more chances than the bigger younger Klitschko, but he's a more natural boxer than Wladimir, more naturally ring savvy and more able to adapt to adversity.
Given the above, it seems possible that Vitali will take some chances and leave himself open for Arreola. That will give Arreola his puncher's chance. Can Arreola apply his boxing skills to make his own chance, if Vitali doesn't give it to him? Unlikely. The odds dictate that Vitali will keep Arreola at arms length, punish him when he attacks and wear him down. Arreola is a tough guy, proven resilient after knockdowns and able to adapt to some extent. That said, I doubt he has a solution for the Klitschko jab. I believe Klitschko will stay behind the jab, realizing that Arreola is indeed a threat and that Arreola will absorb a lot of leather. With Arreola's aggressiveness and desire, he will make a serious run at Klitschko as early as round two...but Klitschko will fend him off.
My heart says Arreola and I will be rooting for the USA fighter, but my head says Klitschko by TKO in round 8.
Saturday, September 19, 2009
Mayweather v. Marquez "live"
As I watch the final hype of the PPV and while watching the undercard, I was questioning the wisdom of my prediction of Marquez...so I went to see their measurements and how they've come up. I'm more convinced than ever that Marquez was a deeply unwise choice for Mayweather in his return. Mayweather is the bigger fighter, but not by as much as I thought. Mayweather stands 5'8" and Marquez is 5'7". Mayweather's reach is 72", while Marquez' is 67". Most importantly, for the purposes of my analysis...Mayweather started his career at 130, while Marquez started at 125.
This last statistic is telling as far as I'm concerned. Mayweather has moved up over and over, fighting as high as 154, while Marquez remained at true lightweight, never fighting higher than 135 his entire career. I seem to recall a fighter who fought the vast majority of his career at a lower weight, then jumped up dramatically and successfully past that weight. His name was Bernard Hopkins. It looks an awful lot like Marquez is not at all likely to be blown up at the 148 he is walking in at. If he brought himself up right, then he is likely to be very comfortable and feeling strong.
As the fighters do their ring walk, I also want to comment further briefly on Mayweather's refusal to make weight. That isn't a misprint. He didn't apparently fail to make the contracted weight. He refused to make 144. His camp contacted Marquez' camp sometime early in the final week to tell them he might not make weight. That tells me he didn't intend to and was fearful that losing the last two pounds would sap him. He forced Marquez to decide whether to forfeit the opportunity to make millions over two pounds. He then paid $300K per pound to Marquez. That speaks to fear and hubris...which is a dangerous combination....for Mayweather. I also looked back over Mayweather's opponents over the years. In their prime, there is no one on that list that matches Marquez' skills. With all of that said, Marquez has been known to hit the canvas. He can be rocked...but he hangs in, adjusts and is outstanding. I'll stick with my upset prediction of Marquez.
ROUND ONE - Out they come at the bell and it's on. Both fighters posing. Mayweather moving forward a bit, but both very much trying to measure the other. If it stays this way, Mayweather wins. HBO's Emmanuel Steward claims that Mayweather's speed is unmatched by Marquez. We'll see. With a minute left, it's a bore with a light edge to Mayweather. Marquez scores and it gets closer to even. Marquez flurries with ten seconds left, but I give it narrowly to Mayweather 10-9.
ROUND TWO - If Mayweather keeps Marquez at range, he will win easily. I don't see that happening and indeed Marquez scores a combination to start the round, but only then does Mayweather answer. Marquez lands a straight right. Knockdown for Mayweather! Kellerman says Marquez is in "bad trouble". He looks okay from here...but hard to say. I almost missed the punch so it must have been a short hook. Marquez is bouncing back well. And it would seem that Marquez' habit of digging himself a hole is being perpetuated here. REPLAY shows it was a short left hook that dropped Marquez.
ROUND THREE - Mayweather up 20-17 after loggin a 10 - 8 round with the knockdown. The HBO team says Marquez is noticeably slower. It doesn't look that way from here...but perhaps it's different live? Lampley is spewing love for Mayweather and Kellerman takes up that flag and runs with it, calling the counterpunching safe-fighting Mayweather "pretty entertaining so far." Only insofar as there was a knockdown. Still...Mayweather is stymying everything that Marquez is putting out there. Another boring round...for Mayweather, who goes up 30-26.
ROUND FOUR - Marquez opens the round landing a right over the top and Mayweather shakes his head. Now the HBO team says Marquez looked discouraged in his corner. We can't evaluate what they don't show us...Marquez lands hard with a right hand over the top. Mayweather smiles, wich acknowledges that it landed. Mayweather landing jabs pretty consistently. I'm giving that round to Marquez because he landed the bigger punches and was more aggressive, making it 39-36 for Mayweather.
ROUND FIVE - HBO's Harold Lederman and I diverge in our scores, which I think is good. Marquez trying to make something happen...which means he is the more aggressive fighter and it seems like Mayweather is a bit more cautious. Steward says that Marquez will be worn down by the speed. Marquez doesn't look it at the halfway point. It's Marquez' round so far and Lampley intoning that Marquez needs to be heavier, even as he is winning the round. As usual, Lampley is calling a fight based on what happened in the previous round. Marquez still winning at rounds' close. Marquez' round: 48-46 Mayweather.
ROUND SIX - "attack but don't be frontal" is Marquez' trainer's instruction...and that makes sense, though I imagine it suffers in translation. Mayweather opens seeming to try to go to the body and Marquez counters very effectively. At the forty five second mark, Marquez still the better fighter and Steward uses it as an opportunity to say Mayweather is dominating? Oh...Marquez rocked and the round turns to Mayweather. Marquez doesn't look as hurt as I would expect. Kellerman says Mayweather is "having his way" and I don't see that. Mayweather is doing better in this round, though. Pins Marquez in the corner and takes shots, always with his leaning back and potshotting. Mayweather extends to 58-55.
ROUND SEVEN - Lampley says it's a "complete domination" and I simply don't agree. The HBO team feeds on each other and they tend to sway badly at times. Lederman has every round for Mayweather. Lampley says no round has been close! Good grief. If it's true that the ref went to Marquez' corner to ask if he wants to continue then perhaps the fight looks a lot different live than on TV. Or my perception is off based on my prediction. Marquez pins Mayweather in the corner and Marquez doesn't attack after a good flurry. Kellerman describing it as an "absolute shutout", but that's ridiculous. This was a Mayweather round though...68 - 64.
ROUND EIGHT - Mayweather is jabbing and hitting Marquez relatvely easily, but the punches are not that special. Neither fighter is doing much at the halfway point. Typically, Mayweather is not pressing his advantage. This round edging to Mayweather because Marquez isn't landing much and isn't active enough. Marquez brings some leather in the last 20 seconds of the round, mostly ineffectively...and then Mayweather invites him in repeatedly, taking shots all around his head and body...and losing the round on my card. 77 - 74.
ROUND NINE - The HBO team is spending the fight describing all the reasons that Marquez is completely out of the fight and it's strange. A minute in, it's an even round. Mayweather landing more effectively in the second minute. It's just a jabbing contest and Mayweather must win that contest. Mayweather lands a big combo at the thirty second mark and Marquez tries to answer, but Mayweather seems to be controlling the action. He's advancing. Lampley says "all the steam is out of Marquez' punches...if it was ever there...", which is a typical overstatement. But it's Mayweather's round: 87 - 83.
ROUND TEN - Steward seems to think that Marquez is shot and he'll be lucky to survive. I admit that Mayweather looks stronger and Marquez is right there for the jab...but I don't see Marquez fading. He's trying. Steward says "he's going to try to get him out of there this round"...that seems another stretch. Marquez not landing and Mayweather boringly winning. Some clean punches landing for Mayweather. The fight is definitely tilting heavily for Mayweather. Mayweather dances in the corner at the round's conclusion. 97-92 for Mayweather.
ROUND ELEVEN - Marquez doing better this rounds first minute as he stops moving backward, but Mayweather is still getting the better of it. He boringly moves forward and is hitting Marquez more steadily and clearly. Mayweather lands cleanly and with twenty seconds left and Kellerman says he's "clearly pressing for the knockout", though Marquez doesn't look hurt. If that's pressing for the KO, then Mayweather is no finisher. Also, the sky is blue. Mayweather's round: 107-101.
ROUND TWELVE - Some of these rounds don't need much explication because they look alike. Mayweather stutterstepping forward leaning back and jabbing and Marquez is fighting a fight of attrition, showing effort, but not able to land. Marquez bounces punches off the arms and Mayweather jabs and leans away. Boring...but effective. At the halfway mark, Mayweather holds Marquez' head down coming out of a clinch and the HBO team says he's pressing for the KO again...but Marquez doesn't look close to me...but pretty outmatched. Mayweather doesn't look marked and Marquez looks bloodied. With twenty seconds left, Mayweather finally throwing with bad intentions? what a fighter...who dances the fight to a close. His round again, making my final tally 117 - 110.
WRAP UP: Okay, so maybe Pacman has made me think anything is possible. Now I want to see Pacquiao against Mayweather all the more. This makes me wonder if Mayweather might just have his way with Pacman! Wow...what a reversal from what I was thinking coming in. I bought the hype. There's no question that I was completely wrong in my prediction, so I am not backing off of it but I tend to think that several factors played into my misjudging the matchup (apart from the Pacman effect): there hasn't been a big fight in months...and I so wanted this fight to live up that I invented drama; I watched Mayweather/Marquez 24/7 and that has nver served me well; I forgot my reaction at the time of the announcement of the fight (proof positive for me that I really wanted this fight to be good) - that it would be a bore. A bore it was...two counterpunchers measuring each other for twelve rounds. Marquez put up a good effort and was unquestionably outmatched.
Mayweather handpicked his opponent well. But that denegrates Mayweather's performance unfairly because everything I said about Marquez coming in remains true. He is a hall of fame caliber opponent, heretofor ranked #2 P4P in the world. The final scores of the judges: 118-109; 120 -107; 119-108. Now...to the denigating of the performance. How much did those two pounds matter? Marquez made a special effort to talk to the HBO team post-fight, apparently to say that: 1) he wished he'd fought two or three fights at this weight and if he had, he would have acquitted himself better; 2) the weight made all the difference. Now...to be fair...the HBO team seemed convinced at ringside that Mayweather was so much faster, notwithstanding the weight difference, that Marquez had no chance. Interesting. I wonder if those last two pounds would have sapped Mayweather enough down the stretch to make a difference? We'll never know. If the Pacman/Money fight is ever made, you can bet that Pacquiao won't allow Mayweather to blow off the contract weight though....
It was amusing to see Mosley and Hopkins call Mayweather out and Mayweather duck the questions about his refusal to come in at the contracted weight. He refuses to fight or otherwise engage on any terms but his own...but in a way, you have to respect that. And in a more significant way, as a realfightfan...you don't. As a further pertinent aside, to see Max Kellerman kick it back to Jim Lampley rather than allow Mayweather to hold forth unbridled (and then Kellerman's almost immediate explication of that decision) is to ironically see Max's ego be tested and found wanting (exactly what he essentially accused Mayweather of). Once Mayweather said Max "talks too much" and tried to take his mic, Kellerman kicked it back to Lampley...silencing an affronted Mayweather and depriving the viewers of listening to this talented blowhard answer the challenges that had just been posed by Mosley and Hopkins (for Golden Boy). Perhaps he was going to continue to filibuster without addressing anything the fans want to hear...but I would have preferred to hear it and I doubt I'm alone. A pretty glaring mistake by Kellerman, whose assertion that he is baffled by Mayweather's persecution complex relative to him because he maintains, among the media at-large, a more "friendly" attitude toward Mayweather because he "admires his craft" is after-the-fact damage control.
They say Bob Arum, who promotes Pacquiao, has said that Mayweather v. Pacquiao will never take place. If that's true...then that's a shame. Maybe that plays right into Mayweather's hands, who apparently never takes a fight he can't win. Or does he simply never lose? If he wants to erase all lingering doubts, he ought to bend over backwards to make that fight. Especially since he just dominated the guy who gave Pacman fits in two fights.
This last statistic is telling as far as I'm concerned. Mayweather has moved up over and over, fighting as high as 154, while Marquez remained at true lightweight, never fighting higher than 135 his entire career. I seem to recall a fighter who fought the vast majority of his career at a lower weight, then jumped up dramatically and successfully past that weight. His name was Bernard Hopkins. It looks an awful lot like Marquez is not at all likely to be blown up at the 148 he is walking in at. If he brought himself up right, then he is likely to be very comfortable and feeling strong.
As the fighters do their ring walk, I also want to comment further briefly on Mayweather's refusal to make weight. That isn't a misprint. He didn't apparently fail to make the contracted weight. He refused to make 144. His camp contacted Marquez' camp sometime early in the final week to tell them he might not make weight. That tells me he didn't intend to and was fearful that losing the last two pounds would sap him. He forced Marquez to decide whether to forfeit the opportunity to make millions over two pounds. He then paid $300K per pound to Marquez. That speaks to fear and hubris...which is a dangerous combination....for Mayweather. I also looked back over Mayweather's opponents over the years. In their prime, there is no one on that list that matches Marquez' skills. With all of that said, Marquez has been known to hit the canvas. He can be rocked...but he hangs in, adjusts and is outstanding. I'll stick with my upset prediction of Marquez.
ROUND ONE - Out they come at the bell and it's on. Both fighters posing. Mayweather moving forward a bit, but both very much trying to measure the other. If it stays this way, Mayweather wins. HBO's Emmanuel Steward claims that Mayweather's speed is unmatched by Marquez. We'll see. With a minute left, it's a bore with a light edge to Mayweather. Marquez scores and it gets closer to even. Marquez flurries with ten seconds left, but I give it narrowly to Mayweather 10-9.
ROUND TWO - If Mayweather keeps Marquez at range, he will win easily. I don't see that happening and indeed Marquez scores a combination to start the round, but only then does Mayweather answer. Marquez lands a straight right. Knockdown for Mayweather! Kellerman says Marquez is in "bad trouble". He looks okay from here...but hard to say. I almost missed the punch so it must have been a short hook. Marquez is bouncing back well. And it would seem that Marquez' habit of digging himself a hole is being perpetuated here. REPLAY shows it was a short left hook that dropped Marquez.
ROUND THREE - Mayweather up 20-17 after loggin a 10 - 8 round with the knockdown. The HBO team says Marquez is noticeably slower. It doesn't look that way from here...but perhaps it's different live? Lampley is spewing love for Mayweather and Kellerman takes up that flag and runs with it, calling the counterpunching safe-fighting Mayweather "pretty entertaining so far." Only insofar as there was a knockdown. Still...Mayweather is stymying everything that Marquez is putting out there. Another boring round...for Mayweather, who goes up 30-26.
ROUND FOUR - Marquez opens the round landing a right over the top and Mayweather shakes his head. Now the HBO team says Marquez looked discouraged in his corner. We can't evaluate what they don't show us...Marquez lands hard with a right hand over the top. Mayweather smiles, wich acknowledges that it landed. Mayweather landing jabs pretty consistently. I'm giving that round to Marquez because he landed the bigger punches and was more aggressive, making it 39-36 for Mayweather.
ROUND FIVE - HBO's Harold Lederman and I diverge in our scores, which I think is good. Marquez trying to make something happen...which means he is the more aggressive fighter and it seems like Mayweather is a bit more cautious. Steward says that Marquez will be worn down by the speed. Marquez doesn't look it at the halfway point. It's Marquez' round so far and Lampley intoning that Marquez needs to be heavier, even as he is winning the round. As usual, Lampley is calling a fight based on what happened in the previous round. Marquez still winning at rounds' close. Marquez' round: 48-46 Mayweather.
ROUND SIX - "attack but don't be frontal" is Marquez' trainer's instruction...and that makes sense, though I imagine it suffers in translation. Mayweather opens seeming to try to go to the body and Marquez counters very effectively. At the forty five second mark, Marquez still the better fighter and Steward uses it as an opportunity to say Mayweather is dominating? Oh...Marquez rocked and the round turns to Mayweather. Marquez doesn't look as hurt as I would expect. Kellerman says Mayweather is "having his way" and I don't see that. Mayweather is doing better in this round, though. Pins Marquez in the corner and takes shots, always with his leaning back and potshotting. Mayweather extends to 58-55.
ROUND SEVEN - Lampley says it's a "complete domination" and I simply don't agree. The HBO team feeds on each other and they tend to sway badly at times. Lederman has every round for Mayweather. Lampley says no round has been close! Good grief. If it's true that the ref went to Marquez' corner to ask if he wants to continue then perhaps the fight looks a lot different live than on TV. Or my perception is off based on my prediction. Marquez pins Mayweather in the corner and Marquez doesn't attack after a good flurry. Kellerman describing it as an "absolute shutout", but that's ridiculous. This was a Mayweather round though...68 - 64.
ROUND EIGHT - Mayweather is jabbing and hitting Marquez relatvely easily, but the punches are not that special. Neither fighter is doing much at the halfway point. Typically, Mayweather is not pressing his advantage. This round edging to Mayweather because Marquez isn't landing much and isn't active enough. Marquez brings some leather in the last 20 seconds of the round, mostly ineffectively...and then Mayweather invites him in repeatedly, taking shots all around his head and body...and losing the round on my card. 77 - 74.
ROUND NINE - The HBO team is spending the fight describing all the reasons that Marquez is completely out of the fight and it's strange. A minute in, it's an even round. Mayweather landing more effectively in the second minute. It's just a jabbing contest and Mayweather must win that contest. Mayweather lands a big combo at the thirty second mark and Marquez tries to answer, but Mayweather seems to be controlling the action. He's advancing. Lampley says "all the steam is out of Marquez' punches...if it was ever there...", which is a typical overstatement. But it's Mayweather's round: 87 - 83.
ROUND TEN - Steward seems to think that Marquez is shot and he'll be lucky to survive. I admit that Mayweather looks stronger and Marquez is right there for the jab...but I don't see Marquez fading. He's trying. Steward says "he's going to try to get him out of there this round"...that seems another stretch. Marquez not landing and Mayweather boringly winning. Some clean punches landing for Mayweather. The fight is definitely tilting heavily for Mayweather. Mayweather dances in the corner at the round's conclusion. 97-92 for Mayweather.
ROUND ELEVEN - Marquez doing better this rounds first minute as he stops moving backward, but Mayweather is still getting the better of it. He boringly moves forward and is hitting Marquez more steadily and clearly. Mayweather lands cleanly and with twenty seconds left and Kellerman says he's "clearly pressing for the knockout", though Marquez doesn't look hurt. If that's pressing for the KO, then Mayweather is no finisher. Also, the sky is blue. Mayweather's round: 107-101.
ROUND TWELVE - Some of these rounds don't need much explication because they look alike. Mayweather stutterstepping forward leaning back and jabbing and Marquez is fighting a fight of attrition, showing effort, but not able to land. Marquez bounces punches off the arms and Mayweather jabs and leans away. Boring...but effective. At the halfway mark, Mayweather holds Marquez' head down coming out of a clinch and the HBO team says he's pressing for the KO again...but Marquez doesn't look close to me...but pretty outmatched. Mayweather doesn't look marked and Marquez looks bloodied. With twenty seconds left, Mayweather finally throwing with bad intentions? what a fighter...who dances the fight to a close. His round again, making my final tally 117 - 110.
WRAP UP: Okay, so maybe Pacman has made me think anything is possible. Now I want to see Pacquiao against Mayweather all the more. This makes me wonder if Mayweather might just have his way with Pacman! Wow...what a reversal from what I was thinking coming in. I bought the hype. There's no question that I was completely wrong in my prediction, so I am not backing off of it but I tend to think that several factors played into my misjudging the matchup (apart from the Pacman effect): there hasn't been a big fight in months...and I so wanted this fight to live up that I invented drama; I watched Mayweather/Marquez 24/7 and that has nver served me well; I forgot my reaction at the time of the announcement of the fight (proof positive for me that I really wanted this fight to be good) - that it would be a bore. A bore it was...two counterpunchers measuring each other for twelve rounds. Marquez put up a good effort and was unquestionably outmatched.
Mayweather handpicked his opponent well. But that denegrates Mayweather's performance unfairly because everything I said about Marquez coming in remains true. He is a hall of fame caliber opponent, heretofor ranked #2 P4P in the world. The final scores of the judges: 118-109; 120 -107; 119-108. Now...to the denigating of the performance. How much did those two pounds matter? Marquez made a special effort to talk to the HBO team post-fight, apparently to say that: 1) he wished he'd fought two or three fights at this weight and if he had, he would have acquitted himself better; 2) the weight made all the difference. Now...to be fair...the HBO team seemed convinced at ringside that Mayweather was so much faster, notwithstanding the weight difference, that Marquez had no chance. Interesting. I wonder if those last two pounds would have sapped Mayweather enough down the stretch to make a difference? We'll never know. If the Pacman/Money fight is ever made, you can bet that Pacquiao won't allow Mayweather to blow off the contract weight though....
It was amusing to see Mosley and Hopkins call Mayweather out and Mayweather duck the questions about his refusal to come in at the contracted weight. He refuses to fight or otherwise engage on any terms but his own...but in a way, you have to respect that. And in a more significant way, as a realfightfan...you don't. As a further pertinent aside, to see Max Kellerman kick it back to Jim Lampley rather than allow Mayweather to hold forth unbridled (and then Kellerman's almost immediate explication of that decision) is to ironically see Max's ego be tested and found wanting (exactly what he essentially accused Mayweather of). Once Mayweather said Max "talks too much" and tried to take his mic, Kellerman kicked it back to Lampley...silencing an affronted Mayweather and depriving the viewers of listening to this talented blowhard answer the challenges that had just been posed by Mosley and Hopkins (for Golden Boy). Perhaps he was going to continue to filibuster without addressing anything the fans want to hear...but I would have preferred to hear it and I doubt I'm alone. A pretty glaring mistake by Kellerman, whose assertion that he is baffled by Mayweather's persecution complex relative to him because he maintains, among the media at-large, a more "friendly" attitude toward Mayweather because he "admires his craft" is after-the-fact damage control.
They say Bob Arum, who promotes Pacquiao, has said that Mayweather v. Pacquiao will never take place. If that's true...then that's a shame. Maybe that plays right into Mayweather's hands, who apparently never takes a fight he can't win. Or does he simply never lose? If he wants to erase all lingering doubts, he ought to bend over backwards to make that fight. Especially since he just dominated the guy who gave Pacman fits in two fights.
Marquez v. Mayweather: a P4P prediction
Here's the real question for this fight: why would Mayweather choose Juan Manuel Marquez for his inevitable coming-out-of-fake-retirement fight? He claims he doesn't watch tapes of fighters he faces, but there's no way he hasn't watched Marquez fight Pacquiao twice. No way. So...what is he seeing that we're not seeing? I say that because not only is Marquez no walk in the park, he's one of the most experienced elite level fighters of his generation. He's been in as deep as anyone possibly can be and to say he's acquitted himself admirably is distinct understatement.
Let's look at the short list that leaps to mind: starting with Pacquiao - I recall him, to my mind, unquestionably outboxing Pacquiao for the remainder of the fight...after having been dropped three times in the first round - he adjusted so effectively even after being dropped over and over that he deserved the win, but Pacquiao eked out the draw. As for the other fight with Pacquiao, I thought it legitimately went to Pacquiao but it was close and it went to the cards (please keep in mind that neither Oscar, nor Hatton made it close to going the distance with Pacquiao...something Marquez has done twice); Casamayor - the slippery undefeated veteran Cuban had never been knocked down, let alone knocked out when Marquez dispatched him, taking his title and relegating him to where he belongs...on the scrap heap of exposed champions who would rather dance, slip, foul and hold than engage...something no one else had ever done; Juan Diaz - Marquez KO'd another fighter who'd never been dropped in Diaz, a fighter who Nate Campbell had fought the fight of his life to beat and take Diaz' zero away.
So...why would Mayweather fight a guy this good? After taking off two years? Well, the answer may lie in the size difference. Mayweather proves he hits pretty hard against the likes of bigger fighters like Oscar. He'll have a reach advantage. He's proved he can solve tough styles like Hatton's (though since Hatton was dispatched so summarily by Pacquiao, the luster is off that accomplishment too).
The answer may lie in the styles. Marquez is well known as a counterpuncher...and counterpunching is Mayweather's specialty. Perhaps he's convinced he will be able to beat Marquez to the punch and that Marquez will lay back waiting for opportunities that Mayweather thinks he'll never be given.
Perhaps it's Marquez' age. At 36, he's aging for a fighter who relies on the quickness of his counterpunching...and perhaps the younger Mayweather is convinced he will be able to outmuscle and outspeed Marquez.
Here's the counterargument that says that Marquez pulls off the upset:
-it starts with the proposition that Mayweather barely squeaked by Oscar - I called that fight for Oscar on effective aggressiveness and ring generalship and though a re-viewing had me questioning my own call as biased, it was that close - so, although Marquez never fought Oscar, Pacquiao's alarming destruction of Oscar based on handspeed and positioning where Marquez has twice given Pacquiao almost more than he could handle...the edge goes to Marquez;
-the next point is subsumed above - Pacquiao proved that, relatively speaking at these weights, size may simply not matter as much as we all think it should. So...is Marquez as fast and as good as Pacquiao? As Golden Boy's Richard Schaeffer pointed out to Marquez himself, over two fights the official scorecards of 24 rounds favored Pacquiao by one point. One point. The answer must be yes...and while we can in no way take away Pacquiao's three knockdowns that started the draw between the two...absent those points, Marquez weighs out with more points...and importantly, surely actually has more rounds on paper than Pacquiao because of the effect of that one lopsided round. Again...advantage Marquez;
-Marquez has been in deep and proven he will and skills over and over. If there is excess mileage as a result, he's not shown it. Meanwhile, Mayweather looked so relieved to have taken the decision from Oscar in the moments after that win that it was easy to intuit that he was by no means sure he'd won. It took him nine rounds to KO Hatton and while, at the time, taking Hatton's zero looked like a career-defining moment...Pacquiao's humiliation of the popular Brit seemed to put it in perspective, particularly as compared to Pac's dealings with Mr. Marquez. Advantage: Marquez.
-finally...ring rust. While there's little question that Mayweather appears in top shape, that he's bloodying his sparring partners on 24/7 and that he's a world-class boxing technician with an elite level ring IQ...he hasn't been in as deep nearly as often as Marquez...and hasn't in truth been in particularly deep in years. An aging Oscar? A since-exposed Hatton? These were megafights for certain, but they were arguably not against super-elite fighters. OK, so his fight against Oscar might have been Oscar's last great showing...but recall that Oscar had already been taken the distance by an overmatched Stevie Forbes, KO'd by Hopkins and beaten by in his prep fight for Hopkins...only to walk with a uber-questionable decision. By then, Oscar was a millionaire so many times over that he was fighting to find the motivation that clearly eludes him today. Meanwhile, Marquez has been toiling against the best fighters in the world regulary in the last few years...and arguably winning winning every time.
The prediction? My brain says Mayweather wouldn't take this fight if he wasn't certain he could decision Marquez. However...I think he is underestimating the man. They've weighed in at 146 and 142 respectively and this, though the fight was originally contracted for 144. That says to me that Mayweather didn't feel he could comfortably make weight...so he changed the rules in the run up to the fight, upping the contract weight to 147 rather than risk being depleted by the two pound difference. That is the action of a fighter who is concerned about the last two pounds, is strong-arming his opponent just because he can and is taking his opponent lightly. He wants those last two pounds and is coming into the ring thinking those two pounds matter. Pacquiao proved they don't...and I think Marquez will prove they don't. Mayweather, in my judgment, plans on coming in and being aggressive to back Marquez off, then cruising to a decision victory. He underestimates Marquez' skills, speed, power and commitment. Marquez in a four point decision.
Let's look at the short list that leaps to mind: starting with Pacquiao - I recall him, to my mind, unquestionably outboxing Pacquiao for the remainder of the fight...after having been dropped three times in the first round - he adjusted so effectively even after being dropped over and over that he deserved the win, but Pacquiao eked out the draw. As for the other fight with Pacquiao, I thought it legitimately went to Pacquiao but it was close and it went to the cards (please keep in mind that neither Oscar, nor Hatton made it close to going the distance with Pacquiao...something Marquez has done twice); Casamayor - the slippery undefeated veteran Cuban had never been knocked down, let alone knocked out when Marquez dispatched him, taking his title and relegating him to where he belongs...on the scrap heap of exposed champions who would rather dance, slip, foul and hold than engage...something no one else had ever done; Juan Diaz - Marquez KO'd another fighter who'd never been dropped in Diaz, a fighter who Nate Campbell had fought the fight of his life to beat and take Diaz' zero away.
So...why would Mayweather fight a guy this good? After taking off two years? Well, the answer may lie in the size difference. Mayweather proves he hits pretty hard against the likes of bigger fighters like Oscar. He'll have a reach advantage. He's proved he can solve tough styles like Hatton's (though since Hatton was dispatched so summarily by Pacquiao, the luster is off that accomplishment too).
The answer may lie in the styles. Marquez is well known as a counterpuncher...and counterpunching is Mayweather's specialty. Perhaps he's convinced he will be able to beat Marquez to the punch and that Marquez will lay back waiting for opportunities that Mayweather thinks he'll never be given.
Perhaps it's Marquez' age. At 36, he's aging for a fighter who relies on the quickness of his counterpunching...and perhaps the younger Mayweather is convinced he will be able to outmuscle and outspeed Marquez.
Here's the counterargument that says that Marquez pulls off the upset:
-it starts with the proposition that Mayweather barely squeaked by Oscar - I called that fight for Oscar on effective aggressiveness and ring generalship and though a re-viewing had me questioning my own call as biased, it was that close - so, although Marquez never fought Oscar, Pacquiao's alarming destruction of Oscar based on handspeed and positioning where Marquez has twice given Pacquiao almost more than he could handle...the edge goes to Marquez;
-the next point is subsumed above - Pacquiao proved that, relatively speaking at these weights, size may simply not matter as much as we all think it should. So...is Marquez as fast and as good as Pacquiao? As Golden Boy's Richard Schaeffer pointed out to Marquez himself, over two fights the official scorecards of 24 rounds favored Pacquiao by one point. One point. The answer must be yes...and while we can in no way take away Pacquiao's three knockdowns that started the draw between the two...absent those points, Marquez weighs out with more points...and importantly, surely actually has more rounds on paper than Pacquiao because of the effect of that one lopsided round. Again...advantage Marquez;
-Marquez has been in deep and proven he will and skills over and over. If there is excess mileage as a result, he's not shown it. Meanwhile, Mayweather looked so relieved to have taken the decision from Oscar in the moments after that win that it was easy to intuit that he was by no means sure he'd won. It took him nine rounds to KO Hatton and while, at the time, taking Hatton's zero looked like a career-defining moment...Pacquiao's humiliation of the popular Brit seemed to put it in perspective, particularly as compared to Pac's dealings with Mr. Marquez. Advantage: Marquez.
-finally...ring rust. While there's little question that Mayweather appears in top shape, that he's bloodying his sparring partners on 24/7 and that he's a world-class boxing technician with an elite level ring IQ...he hasn't been in as deep nearly as often as Marquez...and hasn't in truth been in particularly deep in years. An aging Oscar? A since-exposed Hatton? These were megafights for certain, but they were arguably not against super-elite fighters. OK, so his fight against Oscar might have been Oscar's last great showing...but recall that Oscar had already been taken the distance by an overmatched Stevie Forbes, KO'd by Hopkins and beaten by in his prep fight for Hopkins...only to walk with a uber-questionable decision. By then, Oscar was a millionaire so many times over that he was fighting to find the motivation that clearly eludes him today. Meanwhile, Marquez has been toiling against the best fighters in the world regulary in the last few years...and arguably winning winning every time.
The prediction? My brain says Mayweather wouldn't take this fight if he wasn't certain he could decision Marquez. However...I think he is underestimating the man. They've weighed in at 146 and 142 respectively and this, though the fight was originally contracted for 144. That says to me that Mayweather didn't feel he could comfortably make weight...so he changed the rules in the run up to the fight, upping the contract weight to 147 rather than risk being depleted by the two pound difference. That is the action of a fighter who is concerned about the last two pounds, is strong-arming his opponent just because he can and is taking his opponent lightly. He wants those last two pounds and is coming into the ring thinking those two pounds matter. Pacquiao proved they don't...and I think Marquez will prove they don't. Mayweather, in my judgment, plans on coming in and being aggressive to back Marquez off, then cruising to a decision victory. He underestimates Marquez' skills, speed, power and commitment. Marquez in a four point decision.
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