Predictions and super middleweight thoughts

After reading the most recent edition of the Ring and seeing Froch called to win over Kessler, I had to respond. While I realize that Andre Ward dismantled Mikkel Kessler, that's no reason to dismiss Kessler such that he would be predicted to be beaten by Carl Froch. Froch is a borderline club fighter who eked out a hometown decision against the starry-eyed Dirrell who couldn't bring himself to punch, somehow thinking that the fact that his hands and head movement were SO much faster than Froch's, he didn't have to actually throw to win.

Kessler gave Joe Calzaghe a good fight and he's not so far removed from that. Before he dropped the decision to Ward, he was the odds-on favorite to win the Showtime tournament. Meanwhile, on the strength of a late round and fight-saving (on my card, at least) KO of the now-withdrawn Jermaine Taylor, Arthur Abraham was the second coming. After last night, no more...though I imagine some will point to the DQ as something different from a loss, notwithstanding that it IS a loss and that he was taking a beating for over ten rounds before he got himself DQ'd. My point is that the tide of opinion ought not vary quite so much based solely on the most recent fight.

Arthur Abraham has always been a slow-footed punch magnet with a granite chin who waits until the end of fights to try to win on one punch. Until recently, he was successful with that . Interestingly absent the DQ loss to Dirrell, whom he wore down by absorbing punches non-stop for ten rounds, the strategy might have worked again. Meanwhile, Kessler is not suddenly a punching bag merely because he lost badly to Andre Ward. Ward stepped up and Kessler didn't prepare properly. Given the disparity of the loss, the handspeed issue may be impossible for Kessler to overcome if they fight again...but against Carl Froch, Kessler's handspeed will not be a problem. He is fitter than Froch, moves better laterally, punches better in combination and surely has faster hands. Froch has a puncher's chance, but that's all. It's Kessler by a wide decision, if not by KO in the late rounds.

Meanwhile, the cream is rising to the top. Andre Ward looked unbeatable against Kessler, but he won't be able to look as fast against Dirrell (when that eventually happens) and a healthy Allan Green subbing in for Jermaine Taylor, brings an interesting dynamic. Sometimes he looks dominant and sometimes vulnerable, but always entertaining. I think he was a great late addition to the tournament.

As for Jermaine taking a hiatus, perhaps it's a good thing. I'm not quite the alarmist that others who've seen his performances of late have been, but I think a step back will benefit him mentally. I think he's bought into the knock on him that he can't finish fights...that he fades. While he's had problems with that, without doubt, I think he needs a new approach to the later rounds. On my card, he was beating Arthur Abraham before he was dropped very late and there's no question on anyone's card that Carl Froch was desparate and far behind when he similarly KO'd Jermaine late. These were dramatic looking losses to be sure, but it seems totally lost by boxing writers that Jermaine was LEADING these fights when he was KO'd. He hasn't lost the ability to compete at the elite level, if we judge him fairly by his last several fights. He brings it, then loses focus in the last round or two. I think some time off, harsh conditioning and a new mental approach to the late rounds: be ready to pour it on in the last two rounds, as if he's behind regardless of the scorecard, for example. Condition for that.

Finally, some stream of consciousness thoughts about Mayweather v. Mosley. Mosley looked fantastic against Cheatergarito, beating him to the punch so often that the hardened plaster inside Margburitto's gloves didn't get a chance to make a difference. Can Mosley be that fast again? He's a fanatical trainer all-year-round, not dissimilar to Mayweather. As he's aged, he's become natural at or near the 150 lb. level, overblown above it and starved below 144 lb. I'm assuming the fight was made at somewhere between 147lb and 150 lbs. Mosley is a special fighter and he can bring leather with strategy. He's a young 38 and I'm hopeful that he hasn't hit the wall yet, losing that fraction of speed that will cost him any chance. Mayweather still has his speed and there's no question about that. This IS a risky fight for him and just like the calculating wuss that he is, he has waited for father time to take the edge off Mosley before agreeing to fight him.

If Mayweather is right and father time has given him the speed edge over Mosley that he's been waiting for all these years, we'll see it in the ring very quickly. These two fighters have been in deep for so long that neither should have a tactical advantage that the other can't offset, so speed will dictate the win. If it's even enough that Mosley can compete, he'll win. He's got a bigger heart and a stronger will to win with less self-doubt. He wants this fight worse than any fight in his entire career. Meanwhile, this fight is almost an afterthought to Mayweather. An alternate to the big payday with Pac that he's ducked. Mayweather will train seriously, be in great shape and will try to establish his speed advantage early. If he finds himself too evenly matched on speed, he will start to foul, cry foul and look for a way out.

Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I'm going to say that Mayweather took this fight earlier than he should've...meaning that he should have waited until Mosley was 45 years old. He took it for the wrong reason too: he wanted to prove he's not afraid of Pacquiao by showing he'll take a big dangerous fight. I think the reason he ducked Mosley for so long is still there: Mosley is as fast or nearly as fast as he is and has more heart, a stronger will to win and better mental toughness when in deep. Mosley adapts, has backup weapons he can implement on the fly and is unafraid of losing. Mayweather is scared to death of losing. Mosley KOs Mayweather in the ninth, settling the pound-for-pound issue in Pac's favor once and for all. Then Mayweather comes crawling back to Pacquiao, seeking the match he withdrew from, on whatever terms Pacquiao wants...and Pac walks away for a year. Then Pac takes it and dispatches Mayweather in the fifth when Mayweather retires on his stool, then from boxing. You heard it all here first.

Showtime: Dirrell v. Abraham

I am blogging starting in the third round of the Dirrell/Abraham super middleweight fight. It's going as I would expect: Dirrell is having his way with him. For me, the only question is whether Dirrell can stay away from Abraham's telegraphed big punches when they occasionally are thrown. And whether Dirrell learned from his loss to stay more active (and not fight in his opponent's back yard).

Once again, the Showtime crew is alarmingly pro-Abraham, with the marginal Antonio Tarver giving Abraham the 3rd despite Abraham taking the same constant tagging all round long, but landing a few punches. And down goes Abraham in the fourth! with 16 seconds left, Dirrell goes in for the kill, but he won't get it. Really nice to see, as I think Abraham was and is way over-rated. On my card, he was losing until he KO'd Jermaine Taylor in the closing seconds of that fight (notwithstanding the pro-Abraham crowd and call by Showtime).

Now the Showtime crew is minimizing the effect of the knockdown, calling it an off-balance issue. It looked rock solid to me: a straight punch right on the button. Dirrell has been taking Abraham apart because while Abraham is tough and can punch, he is slow compared to the elite level Dirrell. Dirrell only has to move his hands and stay alert and he cannot lose.

My card has every round so far for Dirrell with a two pointer in the 4th. The fifth goes his way, too, making it 50-44. Inexplicably, Steve Albert ridiculously intones that it is "shaping up to be a terrific fight" after Dirrell has basically been dominating Abraham wire to wire, excepting maybe three punches. Now Abraham grabs his crotch about 22 seconds in to the 6th and asks for time...the sign of a fighter who is looking for a way out. Finally, as the fight obviously is turning, Albert acknowledges that Abraham can be expected to turn dirty as he falls behind. They flash a telling stat on landed punches with 2 minutes left in the 6th: 47 punches landed for Abraham v. 153 for Dirrell. A blowout, not a terrific fight.

Abraham follows Dirrell around and takes punches all around his peekaboo guard. He's too slow relative to Dirrell to do much else. Another round for Dirrell. After six, it's 60-53.

Nice to see Dirrell moving his hands in the seventh, pounding under Abraham's elbows of that peekaboo guard. He can't let down. Abraham mounting zero offense now, halfway through. Abraham pushes/wrestles Dirrell down to the canvas and so the roughhouse tactics begin. Dirrell lights up Abraham in response. I can't help but think that if Abraham had landed the same punch, the Showtime crew would have howled! Dirrell knocks Abraham into the ropes to end the round and the ref rules it a slip? It looked like a knockdown to me and won't Showtime show that sequence again between rounds? they don't! why not??? That is simply poor television, Showtime.

As the eighth begins, a power punch stat is flashed: 166 for Dirrell v. 34 for Abraham. It's a walkover ,not a terrific fight. Dirrell is inviting Abraham in to tire him and seems to be rope-a doping Abraham! The ref breaks it up, warning Abraham for pushing and bulling. Albert says a warning by the ref "saved Dirrell"! What fight is this idiot watching? I have never before resorted to name-calling in appreciation for the pay television devotion to my love: boxing...but Albert is an incompetent. As if in answer, Dirrell dominates the remainder of the round. After 8 rounds, it's 80-71. On my card, Abraham has not won a single round and should probably have another 10-8 round.

Dirrell continues to move laterally and sting Abraham as blood pours from Abraham's right eye. Al Bernstein intones that Abraham hasn't ever been close to losing a fight, but I guess he wasn't actually at the Taylor fight. Oh wait, he WAS there. What is it with these guys' love affair with Abraham? Now with 1:21 left in the 9th and on the heels of Abraham being badly stunned by a straight right, Abraham grabs Dirrell under his arm and when I think the ref is about to take a point for it...he gives Abraham a minute-long breather to get his eye checked! It's bleeding badly and when Abraham finally catches his breath, they put time back in and the beating continues with Albert warning the viewing audience to "remember, Arthur Abraham is a very strong man" and that he could turn the fight around with one punch. Unreal.

Now they replay that a clash of heads opened the existing cut further and spend a full minute of the 10th talking about how Abraham could complain that he lost the fight because of a cut! Now Dirrell gets his feet caught up and goes down and Abraham goes wild trying to take him out afterward and the ref calls it a slip and the Showtime crew says they "can't believe it wasn't a knockdown"! So NOW they show it again THIS TIME...and lo and behold, it's the tripped up feet. I would however, give that as the first round for Abraham, making it 99-91 for Dirrell.

Dirrell did look a bit tired as Abraham desperately went nuts...and it is going as ever, and Abraham is DQ'D!!! for hitting Dirrell while he's down. Dirrell slipped and he went down near a corner and Abraham unquestionably leaned down and hit him with a big punch absolutely knocking Dirrell out. Dirrell is quivering on the canvas and absolutely out. The replay shows that Abraham unquestionably punched him while he was down and had to be bending down to do it. Dirrell was seated on the canvas when the punch was thrown.

Now, there is no question whatsoever that Abraham hit Dirrell while he was down, but the replay does seem to show Dirrell reacting to the punch, making me think that despite how far ahead he was in the fight, Dirrell kind of decided to go with the punch knowing he was already down and had been fouled and took an easy way out of what was becoming a much tougher late round fight. His reaction afterward would seem to support that too. The replay shows Dirrell raising his hand to his face after the punch, wincing...then tipping over and acting as if he'd been KO'd. Abraham says Dirrell is a "good actor", which shows he clearly thinks the punch didn't actually legitimately KO Dirrell.

Now the Showtime crew claims that Dirrell's incoherent response to the in-ring interview attempt of their notoriously obnoxious interviewer is proof that he needs medical attention and was knocked cold. I disagree. I think his corner, deliberaly creating a commotion and practically roughing him up because they know full well what he did, was egging on his performance. When he was directly asked, Dirrell knew that Abraham had been DQ'd for hitting him while he was down. Now Tarver intones that "we know how to beat Abraham"? Heck...Jermaine Taylor showed how to beat Abraham! He just did it in front of a wildly partisan crowd and Showtime crew that cheered Abraham's every twitch. Taylor lost because the fight was thirty seconds too long for him.

Now...it should be noted that Dirrell clearly won this fight. Also, Abraham clearly deserved to be DQ'd for hitting Dirrell while he was down. But another replay of the tenth round slip-ruling on Dirrell showed me that it was much more a punch than I thought at first viewing. It easily could have been called a knockdown. This, coupled with the fact that Dirrell seemed to be waning as Abraham (despite a shellacking all night long) did not, makes me think that Dirrell just took the expeditious way out. Feel a solid blow on your chin while you're down? fall over...you'll win the fight. Whether you're ahead or behind, that's true...and it's certainly easier than fighting out the last 5 minutes, possibly with cobwebs. That's boxing.

Mayweather is a coward

This is the only conclusion I can draw. I saw Teddy Atlas "break" his inside tip on FNF, like every other fight fan and thought at first...well, I tend to trust Teddy. Then, as I turned it over and over in my mind, I thought...Teddy is besmirching the reputation of a pound for pound guy and he's not turning over the email or his source...that's B.S.. Likewise, whoever sent that email (because I assume Teddy is being truthful about some source in Mayweather's camp whom he trusts absolutely, if blindly) is not coming forward. As was stated in the most recent Ring, anyone (including Teddy) who is foolish enough to think that if such an email existed, it wouldn't be published as proof if it were legitimate, is foolish enough to be taken in by this hearsay backdoor "publishing" of it. Shame on the otherwise bulletproof Mr. Atlas for being duped by what must be a longtime friend. Teddy...go to this person and demand the email as proof that you were not duped...then publish it. If he refuses, then go on the air and say so as openly as you published the first "story".

For the uninitiated, I am referring to Teddy Atlas' having thrown gasoline on a smoldering fire lit solely by the Mayweather camp, by inexplicably throwing the weight of his reputation behind the accusation, by the Mayweather camp, that Pacquiao's camp was concerned their fighter might test positive for steroids. He related on a FNF broadcast that he'd been told by an inside source that he trusted absolutely that this source had received an email from the Pacquaio camp that asked whether IF their fighter DID test positive for steroids, if it could be covered up or bought off to preserve the fight and the sanctity of boxing.

Now...if anyone were stupid enough to write such an email, it WOULD be all but an admission. But would anyone really be that stupid? in the midst of a multimillion dollar negotiation? put it in writing? while it is conceivable, it's very highly unlikely that anyone who relies on Pacquiao himself for his living would write such an email at that time. However...if it were written, then why wouldn't it be published as proof by the recipient? After the fight has been called off? it would, wouldn't it? I think it would.

I strongly suspect that Mayweather was looking for a clever way to preserve his unbeaten record and wanted to push Pacquiao into a corner and prove to him he was the superior negotiator. If Pacquiao wouldn't give in to his every demand, no matter how onerous, Mayweather would walk away and make Pac look like he wouldn't submit to "olympic testing". Keep in mind that Pac did give a LOT of ground during negotiations, agreeing to testing that is definitely not required by either the sanctioning state athletic commission or the belt sanctioning body. For him to give more would have made Pac look AND feel as if he'd given away everything to take the fight. He was willing to fight...and Mayweather was not.

Now Mayweather is going into the Mosley fight hoping that he's finally waited long enough so that father time takes away the risk that Mosley represented. I hope he's wrong and that Mosley has enough left in the tank to destroy Mayweather. That would be just. I think it's a good fight, but it's not the fight I want to see. I'll buy it, but I suspect that Mayweather can outquick Mosley enough to win going backwards, like he did against Delahoya. Recall how ecstatic he was to take that close decision from Oscar. Mayweather knows he can't take out the guy who retired Oscar on his stool, so he chooses the now-38 year old version of Mosley. Mosley has aged well, but he's a much less risky fight for the cowardly Mayweather than is Pac.

Floyd Mayweather, Jr. is a skilled defensive fighter with exceptional speed, but he's not the best fighter of his generation, let alone in the pantheon of all time greats BECAUSE he's ducked the toughest fights in his career at the toughest times. Pacquiao is his career-defining fight and he won't take it. He won't take it because he's afraid he will lose. He won't take it because, relatvie to Pac-man, he is a coward.