Senior Tour Boxing: Jones v. Trinidad

Welcome to the masters version of boxing. In a fight that might've been interesting 5 years ago, Roy Jones is set to demolish Tito Trinidad on January 19th, 2008. At this writing, it's set for next weekend and while I'm starved for boxing, I'm very unlikely to buy this pay-per-view event. Now...I can daydream and conjure a reason to tune in, but whenever I do that, I'm inevitably disappointed. But let's try.

Felix Trinidad always comes to fight. He's a puncher, who while slowed by age and a few wars is not so far past his prime that he'll fail to come out throwing. Or so the theory goes. On the other hand, Jones is trying to remake himself at 38. Having relied on otherwordly quickness in his prime, age (seemingly suddenly) robbed him of his advantage. He aged right before our eyes and was exposed and publicly destroyed in a way few truly great fighters ever have been. Now he's boxing more, taking fewer chances and resigning himself (and prepared, for sake of his legacy) to take a little more punishment. This means he knows that in order to win, he has to engage a little more than he did when he could pose, slip and counterpunch his way to easy decisions. That he'll engage more means more action and more excitement with the always coming forward Trinidad. There's also the argument that at the catchweight of 170, Jones will be diminished enough at fight time to even the otherwise significant advantage he naturally has in size. The argument continues that in the fight game at this level, those small advantages (or disadvantages) grow large because the margin for error is so small. That's all baloney, of course.

First of all, Jones isn't a little stronger than Tito...he's a lot stronger. The catchweight is much closer to his natural best career best weight of 175 than Tito's 160 (or arguably 154). At 170, Tito is likely to have the same roll around his middle that Winky Wright did against Bernard Hopkins. Like Winky (a far superior technical fighter than Tito, though far less exciting both winning and losing), Tito's going up in weight to try to take what he thinks is the best fight available to him is going to prove a mistake. Unlike Winky, Tito is going to get knocked out...and probably pretty spectacularly. Fighting at higher weights do not make fighters faster or stronger, usually. It makes them slower, winded and vulnerable. Tito didn't fight at 5 or 10 pounds heavier because that is not now or ever was his best natural weight. Meanwhile, Jones is likely to be sharp as a razor at 170 (and probably blown up over night to the 182 range), while Tito will probably tip in at a sluggish 172 at fight time. If Trinidad bulks up by weightlifting (a la Jones v. Ruiz), it would be the first time...and...it would be huge mistake. He won't. Muscle will slow him down. He also won't gain lean muscle the way the obsessive Hopkins did...Tito is way too self-satisfied for that.

In fact, I'll be surprised if Tito lasts past the 7th round. I'd say a 5th round TKO. Tito has exhibited ring rust virtually every time he's come out of each of his ridiculous retirements (the next of which we can hope is finally permanent...unless it's against Oscar DelaHoya...that, I would watch and it may happen once Tito realizes there are noone else sees him as a draw any more and DelaHoya still wants him...and he will). He is still living on his ever-diminishing reputation as a multi-division champ and Puerto Rico's darling. I can only presume that his handlers (led apparently by his dad) are the problem. They aren't quelling his delusion that he can come out of retirement once or twice every few years and still compete at an elite level. Not only has he been replaced by Miguel Cotto as P.R.'s favorite fighter (and Cotto is a better fighter to have as their favorite son), but his failure to stay active is going to cost him dearly against Jones. Meanwhile, not only does Jones already have a significant size advantage, but he's at least as quick as Trinidad (at this age), he punches harder, punches from angles and most importantly he's been in the ring this past year. While the level of opposition he's dispatched has been of the hand-picked variety (Prince and Hanshaw), they were both legitimate guys with decent records (Hanshaw was undefeated) and they kept Jones sharp, restored his confidence and letting him work on re-dedicating himself to the basics of his profession.

Trinidad on the other hand, one can only assume, has been sitting and watching tapes of Jones being stopped cold by journeyman great Glen Johnson and great-too-late Antonio Tarver and convinced himself that he punches as hard and is as schooled. No way. What made Roy easy pickings for Tarver and Johnson was that Roy believed his own hype. Caught up in his years of being regarded as the pound-for-pound best in the world, his Nike contract and his rap career (did you think we forgot, Roy?), he failed to recognize that his style, borne of his superior athletic talent, had allowed him for years to rely on his quickness and speed and overcome his stylistic shortcomings. Most boxers, even the elite, aren't so much quicker than their opponents at every level as they step up boxing's ladder of competition that they can literally put their chins in front of their opponents, back away (a cardinal sin that Ali got away with for years...don't ask about Henry Cooper) and counterpunch in combination. Roy failed to understand that once his reflexes dulled a fraction and he came up against sound technicians, he would be hit...and hard. He learned, then relearned that lesson before our eyes. I for one am glad he's clawed his way back on to the scene and can honestly say I didn't expect him to. That's not to say I think he's the fighter he was or he ever will be again...he's not and he won't. But he was really as good as he was touted to be for those years on top of his division and the concensus pound-for-pound rankings and to see him brought so low, so hard almost disrespects us all. So I root for Jones to redeem himself and his legacy enough so that the argument can be made that he was good enough to remake himself. It remains to be seen whether he can remake himself enough to compete with the top of his division. I doubt that. Too much of the old unconventional Roy remains. He drops his hands way too much, he's out of position too much and his footwork is poor. In a way, I hope he retires after destroying Trinidad because that's as far as he can realistically go. If pummelling Trinidad emboldens him, unless he has a stylistic epiphany on the order of George Foreman, when he gets in with a Hopkins or a Calzaghe he'll get embarrassed again.

As for Trinidad, he clearly considers himself a fighter who's so big that he only has to take big fights. Well...while there are fighters like that (hi Oscar), even they stay busy enough not to get embarassingly rusty and they take tune-up fights (and no, Mayorga does not count). Trinidad was solved by Oscar DelaHoya (who was unquestionably robbed that night, although there is some mob justice in not allowing him to so literally take off the last three rounds) as a guy who you have to walk down and box very well to beat. Jones isn't really that guy, so there's a glimmer of hope there...but the natural size difference (to Jones' advantage) and speed factor (equal or to Jones' advantage) makes it very unlikely the result will be anything other than a big win for Roy. I suppose if Jones is tentative and backs up, then Tito can wade in with big shots, stun him and put him away.... There I go...wishing for a fight where there is none. Jones in the fifth, the seventh at the latest. If Jones doesn't engage for fear of being knocked out (cautious to preserve his legacy-salvaging win, we'll call it), then Jones by decision.