Pavlik v. Taylor: Will History Repeat?

The short answer is yes, probably. Don't get me wrong...I'll tune in. In fact, I was shocked and pleased when the first go-round was free to HBO subscribers. Having seen Kelly Pavlik come up, I knew he looked tough...until he walked down Edison Miranda. After that, he looked unbeatable. Not because he's tough (he is) or because he punches hard (he definitely does), but because he's technically sound. He covers up well, he counterpunches well, he's always thinking and trying to adapt while executing an overall game plan and he's cool under pressure.

As for Taylor, If there's anything that Jermaine Taylor has seemed to lack it's schooling. He's a gifted athlete and he's relied on that to carry him a long way. We can all agree that the undisputed middleweight crown is indeed a long way. With Emmanuel Steward now tutoring him, you would think that he would begin to bring a certain calm to his work, knowing that he has a proven boxing mind behind his strategy and a hall of fame pedigree already in the bank. But he still seems frenetic when pressured. That's an odd trait for a fighter who twice took Bernard Hopkins the distance, taking a decision each time (yes, I think he won both times...barely). He ought to exude swagger and move around the ring with the patience of an heir apparent proven. With all of his athleticism, he ought to circle and use both hands, moving in and out and baffle with speed. He doesn't. He's a mimic who fights to the level of his opponent and tries to beat him at his own game. For years, that was enough. That's how great an athlete he is. He's also willing and determined. I'm hoping that Taylor, whom I consider a great champion who took all comers, steps up his game yet again and exhibits those two traits of truly great champions: adaptability and resilience. This coming fight will indeed define him.

To be fair, Pavlik showed great speed against Taylor the first time out and I think that's what surprised Taylor and ultimately cost him the fight. That very fact, along with Pavlik's technical skill may again prove Taylor's undoing. In the first tilt, Taylor was punching and getting hit instead of being able to punch and get missed. Taylor's answer to that seemed to be to try and step up the pace, but Pavlik answered in the way a well-schooled fighter must: he waited him out, counterpunched and punished him for his aggressiveness. Pavlik stood his ground and picked his spots.

At least one element that will make it interesting is what made it interesting the last time out: Taylor can punch too. He sat Pavlik down the last time out and he could do it again. But I don't think he will. I don't think Pavlik will give him the chance. Pavlik now knows he can and did beat the man who beat the man. That kind of confidence can only be earned. Of course, that kind of confidence can become overconfidence too. While I doubt it will, look at what overconfidence did to Paul Williams against Carlos Quintana very recently. Williams felt so confident after outpointing Margarito that his people thought he was ready to slow his punch output and unveil a new hook to show off his power. That hubris got him beaten soundly by a game and prepared challenger. Will a similarly unbeaten Pavlik decide that he should change? Perhaps, but I doubt it mostly because Williams' high output style is very unusual and very different from Pavlik's. Let's face it, Pavlik is very conventional. He does the important things well: his feet are in the right place (although he's not particularly fleet-footed); he sits down on his punches (this he does exceedingly well at times); he hides his big straight right in behind a jab (this hammer will come unexpectedly in behind what otherwise seemed like a routine stiff jab...and knock you out). Pavlik is a great boxer.

And that is why he'll take Taylor down in the tenth round of this twelve round fight. The Ring called it in five for very similar reasons, but I think that fails to give Taylor the credit he deserves. This may even go to a decision because while Taylor throws hard and Pavlik is a finisher for sure, Taylor is better than a legitimate champion. He did beat Hopkins twice and gave a top-of-his-game Winky Wright all he could handle (I'd have given Winky that decision, but it was close enough that it was no robbery). Taylor's athleticism makes up for his stylistic flaws. Those flaws will cost him in 5 or 6 years when he loses a fraction of his quickness to age, but they won't right now. He's still in his prime and while I don't think he'll run, knowing he has to take his title back, he's also not as likely to stand and engage the way he did the first time around.

In fact, if I felt he was truly coachable or changeable, I'd give him a good chance to upset Pavlik with a twelve round decision. The problem is that I've not seen evidence of that. He fights his opponent's fight and is dictated to in terms of pace. He did it against a smaller Kassim Ouma and he did it against a weaker Cory Spinks. While he legitimately kept his belts in those fights, he was widely criticized for taking bad fights and performing poorly in them. It's both a fair and unfair analysis because he was trying to stay busy in a division where he'd fought the best there was out there and yet taking on fighters against whom it's tough to look good. Ouma is a volume puncher and Spinks is an ugly, running, smothering fighter who is no fun to watch at all.

Taylor seems to try to outfight the fighter he's facing at that fighter's own game and doesn't impose his own style or pace because he doesn't really have one. The only question that then remains then is whether his opponent is skilled enough at his own game to beat Taylor at it. Taylor is an exceptional mimic, but he'll too likely fail against Pavlik if Taylor reverts to form (and we all know the likelihood of that as a general proposition...fighters so seldom significantly improve their styles between fights that it's akin to capturing Samuel Peter in a bottle...only to watch him slip away the next time out).

For his part, Pavlik is self-contained in the extreme. He has proven he sets out with a game plan and executes it. While I love Pavlik and think a middleweight champ with his skills and punch are great for the sport, I'm hoping Taylor steps up. By that I mean that I hope he proves he is adaptable. Taylor's winning fight plan is to get on his bike and move move move all night long. In and out, side to side and never let Pavlik set. If he does that, he can walk away with the win, get his belts back and set up a rubber match.

Underestimating Jermaine Taylor has become easy, but let's remember this is still the man who beat the man.